When Will We Feel Safe to Cruise Again

[Roberto256]

22 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

Does any  one have any dates when one or two vaccines will start being available  for  consumption ? If so please post a link .Thanks

 

Forget the nay-sayers!

 

A poster has already shared the schedule with us!

 

Warp us out of here, Mr. Scott.

 

 

On 11/1/2020 at 6:07 PM, cheone said:

Thanks to Operation Warp Speed, Pfizer vaccines will be available in the third week of this month, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson will be available in Dec.  Altogether with the three,  300 million doses will be available in December, most of which have already been manufactured.  The cruise lines will probably have 2 groups  and how they treat them on the ship.  Group 1. those that got the vaccine- No restrictions and back to normal, and Group 2. those that have not got the vaccine.  Group 2 will have to practice social distancing and wear masks and probably be prohibited to go onshore except for Princess tours.   

 

[mcrcruiser]

3 hours ago, Roberto256 said:

 

Forget the nay-sayers!

 

A poster has already shared the schedule with us!

 

Warp us out of here, Mr. Scott.

 

 

 

Thanks I had forgotten that Pfizer  will have their vaccine  out before years end followed by Moderna & Johnson n  Johnson   .We expect to get the vaccine no later than February ;as long as our doctor says it is safe for us   .I just wonder if this will be treated like a yearly flu strain or if enough people in the world get vaccinated that this covid 19 virus would die out totally ?  We can sure hope it dies out 

[nocl]

1 hour ago, mcrcruiser said:

Thanks I had forgotten that Pfizer  will have their vaccine  out before years end followed by Moderna & Johnson n  Johnson   .We expect to get the vaccine no later than February ;as long as our doctor says it is safe for us   .I just wonder if this will be treated like a yearly flu strain or if enough people in the world get vaccinated that this covid 19 virus would die out totally ?  We can sure hope it dies out 

As of yet none of them have reached the case counts for an interim look by the data monitoring and Safety Board.  Until they reach those case numbers they will not know if it meets the required numbers (the first interim look by Pfizer for example requires 77% efficacy) for them to go forward for an EUA.

 

Consequently there are only estimates, but not any hard and fast schedule.

 

The first indication will be a news release that an interim look has occurred and what the results of that look will be.

[mcrcruiser]

20 minutes ago, nocl said:

As of yet none of them have reached the case counts for an interim look by the data monitoring and Safety Board.  Until they reach those case numbers they will not know if it meets the required numbers (the first interim look by Pfizer for example requires 77% efficacy) for them to go forward for an EUA.

 

Consequently there are only estimates, but not any hard and fast schedule.

 

The first indication will be a news release that an interim look has occurred and what the results of that look will be.

Help us out here ,please --what does EUA stand for ?  Thanks in advance

[nocl]

45 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

Help us out here ,please --what does EUA stand for ?  Thanks in advance

EUA is Emergency Use Authorization.  It is given by the FDA for a product to be used due to an unmet medical need and a product has not completed all requirements for full product approval.

 

In the case of the vaccines it will mean that they have met preliminary safety and efficacy milstones, but trials not fully completed. and a major unmet medical need exists.  Basically a benefit outweighs risk decision.

[mcrcruiser]

2 hours ago, nocl said:

EUA is Emergency Use Authorization.  It is given by the FDA for a product to be used due to an unmet medical need and a product has not completed all requirements for full product approval.

 

In the case of the vaccines it will mean that they have met preliminary safety and efficacy milstones, but trials not fully completed. and a major unmet medical need exists.  Basically a benefit outweighs risk decision.

Thanks for the explanation . 

[mcrcruiser]

The timing to   cruise again is quite  illusive  ;because it i based on so many factors . Some of these are when will the vaccine be available   in doctors & pharmacies   for general   inoculations  .Then how many people will be inoculated in what period of time . further what will be those protocols set by the cruise lines . Where will ships sail  from what ports & for what lengths 

 

 Just seems to me that there are a lot of unknowns  here .Wish we could get more firm answers ;but ,that should come in time 

 

 

[mcrcruiser]

Whew the cruise industry is now looking at  the possible impact of the virus mutating ,like the mutation  in Denmark  with the mink farms & people getting that new strain   of covid  . Thus ,the question begs are we ever going to feel as safe as we had felt before this virus was unleashed onto the world & how will that impact cruise ships going forward ?

[voljeep]

9 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

we

your 'we' and my 'we' are totally different due to our own unique situations

 

same with everyone else - there is no universal "we"

[d9704011]

2 minutes ago, voljeep said:

your 'we' and my 'we' are totally different due to our own unique situations

 

same with everyone else - there is no universal "we"

Oui

[mcrcruiser]

2 minutes ago, voljeep said:

your 'we' and my 'we' are totally different due to our own unique situations

 

same with everyone else - there is no universal "we"

The new mutated covid virus  adds another heath risk to cruising if it gets a foothold  .We have seen 2 new mutations ,Denmark is one & the other was a chief engineer from a freighter  down under  near Australia 

 

[mcrcruiser]

Just now, mcrcruiser said:

The new mutated covid virus  adds another heath risk to cruising if it gets a foothold  .We have seen 2 new mutations ,Denmark is one & the other was a chief engineer from a freighter  down under  near Australia 

 

It seems to me that new mutations are coming around more frequently  than the timing from the first mutation . How will that impact the cruise industry as well as all of the hospitality  industry ?

[voljeep]

2 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

It seems to me that new mutations are coming around more frequently  than the timing from the first mutation . How will that impact the cruise industry as well as all of the hospitality  industry ?

there are associated risks ( and rewards ) with everything "we" do in life - there will be collateral damages and lives lost - how each person wants to expose themselves to the 'risks and rewards' is an individual decision

 

having a choice is a beautiful thing  🍻 🍹 🍷 🥃 🍸

 

stay safe 😷

stay hydrated 🧊

[mcrcruiser]

23 minutes ago, voljeep said:

there are associated risks ( and rewards ) with everything "we" do in life - there will be collateral damages and lives lost - how each person wants to expose themselves to the 'risks and rewards' is an individual decision

 

having a choice is a beautiful thing  🍻 🍹 🍷 🥃 🍸

 

stay safe 😷

stay hydrated 🧊

so with your post in mind how does that impact the cruise industry & hospitality industry in general .   The question is safety for passengers ,the words collateral damages are usually heard in war zones not cruise ships or other travel 

 

[voljeep]

2 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

so with your post in mind how does that impact the cruise industry & hospitality industry in general

time will tell ... and the reference was to ALL things related to Covid-19 - but it does seem like the cruise industry has been the most "changed" due to the initial outbreak on the Diamond Princess

 

the possibility of a 10-14 day quarantine if an outbreak occurs on a ship is a make or break deal maker for us ... and that is still in the TBD phase of the getting back to sailing, between the ships, countries, and cruise ports I believe

[Daniel A]

21 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

so with your post in mind how does that impact the cruise industry & hospitality industry in general .   The question is safety for passengers ,the words collateral damages are usually heard in war zones not cruise ships or other travel 

How about bird strikes on aircraft, pilot errors or wind shear or clear air turbulence?  How about the many varied causes for automobile crashes?  1,024 bicyclists were killed in 2018.  Travel is one of the more dangerous activities we engage in.  Life does have inherent risks and as much as we would like to completely eliminate those risks, risk will always be present.  We can take steps to reduce the likelihood of problems (risk management) but total elimination of risk is beyond our capabilities.  

[Daniel A]

27 minutes ago, voljeep said:

the possibility of a 10-14 day quarantine if an outbreak occurs on a ship is a make or break deal maker for us ... and that is still in the TBD phase of the getting back to sailing, between the ships, countries, and cruise ports I believe

That prospect also raises the issue: How much medication should I take with me on a cruise?

[drowelf]

6 hours ago, Daniel A said:

That prospect also raises the issue: How much medication should I take with me on a cruise?

When I travel, I either take a 30 days supply or twice the duration that I expect to be gone. All that, at least for me, fits in a small ditty bag that goes into my carry-on, for flights. 

 

Since I don't plan on cruising until a vaccine is available, I'm not sure if I would need to up that to 45 or 3x days. Only time will tell. 

Edited November 8, 2020 by drowelf

[BirdTravels]

7 hours ago, Daniel A said:

That prospect also raises the issue: How much medication should I take with me on a cruise?

In the past, we always carried 1 week of additional meds in the event of an unforeseen diversion. On our next cruise (hopefully early next year), we'll carry 3 additional weeks of meds. Pills are easy. Refrigerated meds and keeping them cool, but not frozen are sometimes a challenge. 

[rdsqrl]

9 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

It seems to me that new mutations are coming around more frequently  than the timing from the first mutation . How will that impact the cruise industry as well as all of the hospitality  industry ?

Wouldn't that depend upon how many minks choose to cruise next year?   Although, seems like there will be few coming from Denmark.  RIP, little weasels.      
I have a much more important unanswerable question:  What will the wholesale culling of Danish minks do to the price of fur coats?  Asking for a friend....

 

[nocl]

11 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

The new mutated covid virus  adds another heath risk to cruising if it gets a foothold  .We have seen 2 new mutations ,Denmark is one & the other was a chief engineer from a freighter  down under  near Australia 

 

no. the Denmark mutation is unique because it was the result of human to animal back to human. That has resulted in some changes in receptor expression.

 

the one from the freighter was just a strain that had not been previously seen in Australia. But does not impact antibodies. There are lots of strains due to minor variations in the virus, but while that allows identification and source tracing, it does not impact immunity.

[nocl]

10 hours ago, Daniel A said:

How about bird strikes on aircraft, pilot errors or wind shear or clear air turbulence?  How about the many varied causes for automobile crashes?  1,024 bicyclists were killed in 2018.  Travel is one of the more dangerous activities we engage in.  Life does have inherent risks and as much as we would like to completely eliminate those risks, risk will always be present.  We can take steps to reduce the likelihood of problems (risk management) but total elimination of risk is beyond our capabilities.  

I expect an actuary doing risk calculations on cruise ships from march until the shutdown would come up with considerably higher risk numbers than the other examples you listed.

[mcrcruiser]

2 hours ago, rdsqrl said:

Wouldn't that depend upon how many minks choose to cruise next year?   Although, seems like there will be few coming from Denmark.  RIP, little weasels.      
I have a much more important unanswerable question:  What will the wholesale culling of Danish minks do to the price of fur coats?  Asking for a friend....

 

Ah Ha cost of mink furs ?  Thought that fur coats were done with in the USA  .We haven't seen them flash around for many years  .Perhaps there are countries who still accept  killing animals for their fur ;but ,not here in the USA  .

[caribill]

14 hours ago, Daniel A said:

That prospect also raises the issue: How much medication should I take with me on a cruise?

 

Princess has been suggesting bringing an extra two weeks supply.

[cruisemom42]

20 hours ago, Daniel A said:

Travel is one of the more dangerous activities we engage in. 

 

Not sure I'd agree with this statement. According to tabulations by insurance companies, 77 percent of car accidents occur within 15 miles or less of home. And car accidents are certainly far more frequent than any of the other possibilities discussed (such as bird strikes or pilot error).

 

For years I've joked with my family that when I travel I am actually far safer, statistically speaking, than when I am at home and engaging in my normal 1.5 hour commute to and from work....