Carnival gone from San Juan. Royal Caribbean makes their move.

[Tapi]

With Carnival Fascination headed to the scrapyard, and Royal Caribbean sending Freedom of the Seas to Bayonne seasonally, it seemed like San Juan was destined to have zero ships during  the 2021 summer season and would become a seasonal market. 
 

It’s now reported that Royal has reversed course and will now reposition Vision of the Seas (originally scheduled to sail in Europe) to San Juan, returning years round service to San Juan. Until the other cruise lines return in the fall, Royal Caribbean will now be the only cruise lines sailing from San Juan, owning the market 100% during that time.
 

So it seems like Royal Caribbean is taking full advantage of Carnival’s decision to scrap the Fascination and leave San Juan vacant. I know that a lot of people will be glad to have a summer option to sail the Southern Caribbean again. 
 

Thoughts?  

Edited September 18, 2020 by Tapi

[jean87510]

Well the enchantment is there in 2021. Personally, I like the smaller ships for the port intensive Itineraries. It seems a waste to put a bells and whistle ship for 6 port days. 

Edited September 18, 2020 by jean87510

[TooManyWakeUpsTilWeSail]

I would definitely try embarking again out of San Juan on the southern route.  So much more time needed than a 7-8 hour stop over.  Would be a few years down the line since we’ve never cruised to Alaska or Bermuda.

[BlerkOne]

Thoughts? Royal should have scrapped Vision class years ago.

[Tapi]

1 hour ago, BlerkOne said:

Thoughts? Royal should have scrapped Vision class years ago.

Vision class is to Royal what Fantasy class is to Carnival. Yes, they are all old and outdated. There’s no question about that. 
 

But it’s evident that these two cruise lines are taking different approaches with the way they move forward from this pandemic. Royal is finding an opportunity where Carnival has left an opening. 
 

Vision of the Seas may be old, but she may turn out to be the right fit for San Juan until things ramp up again, hopefully by the fall of 2021. Just wondering why Carnival abandoned a market only to be replaced by a cruise line with a ship of similar age and size. 

[BlerkOne]

19 minutes ago, Tapi said:

Vision class is to Royal what Fantasy class is to Carnival. Yes, they are all old and outdated. There’s no question about that. 
 

But it’s evident that these two cruise lines are taking different approaches with the way they move forward from this pandemic. Royal is finding an opportunity where Carnival has left an opening. 
 

Vision of the Seas may be old, but she may turn out to be the right fit for San Juan until things ramp up again, hopefully by the fall of 2021. Just wondering why Carnival abandoned a market only to be replaced by a cruise line with a ship of similar age and size. 

 

Really not that sure why a ship based in Miami couldn't do the same itinerary as one based in Puerto Rico does, even if it takes an extra day. Airfare should be less to Miami and a ship there could alternate other routes as well.

 

It is apparent the San Juan cruises weren't as profitable as some other choices.

[xDisconnections]

26 minutes ago, Tapi said:

Vision class is to Royal what Fantasy class is to Carnival. Yes, they are all old and outdated. There’s no question about that. 
 

But it’s evident that these two cruise lines are taking different approaches with the way they move forward from this pandemic. Royal is finding an opportunity where Carnival has left an opening. 
 

Vision of the Seas may be old, but she may turn out to be the right fit for San Juan until things ramp up again, hopefully by the fall of 2021. Just wondering why Carnival abandoned a market only to be replaced by a cruise line with a ship of similar age and size. 

I don’t think I’d sail on a Vision class ship unless the itinerary was super attractive or I had a particular reason to sail on the sail date from a specific port. This is, however, a fantastic opportunity for them to capture some of the market share that Carnival previously held.

[xDisconnections]

Just now, BlerkOne said:

 

Really not that sure why a ship based in Miami couldn't do the same itinerary as one based in Puerto Rico does, even if it takes an extra day. Airfare should be less to Miami and a ship there could alternate other routes as well.

 

It is apparent the San Juan cruises weren't as profitable as some other choices.

Other cruise lines, such as Princess, operate very similar 10 day itineraries regularly from Fort Lauderdale.

[chill6x6]

I checked the prices for Empress and Freedom earlier in the week for March 2022. The prices are beyond absurd.  No one in their right mind would book the prices they are currently asking..

[BlerkOne]

6 minutes ago, xDisconnections said:

I don’t think I’d sail on a Vision class ship unless the itinerary was super attractive or I had a particular reason to sail on the sail date from a specific port. This is, however, a fantastic opportunity for them to capture some of the market share that Carnival previously held.

 

I am reminded of the Soviet Union that collapsed under its own weight. Good luck to them if they think they can pick up where they left off without skipping a beat.

[chill6x6]

10 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

 

Really not that sure why a ship based in Miami couldn't do the same itinerary as one based in Puerto Rico does, even if it takes an extra day. Airfare should be less to Miami and a ship there could alternate other routes as well.

 

It is apparent the San Juan cruises weren't as profitable as some other choices.

True..  SJU cruises are almost always less than a 7-day from US mainland. For sure the airfare to SJU is more and with less options. Probably would add two days to itinerary.   

[xDisconnections]

29 minutes ago, chill6x6 said:

I checked the prices for Empress and Freedom earlier in the week for March 2022. The prices are beyond absurd.  No one in their right mind would book the prices they are currently asking..

I don’t think the prices are too high for the product you receive. Many are willing to pay more than the asking price you would find on Carnival for an elevated experience. The pricing is calculated based on historical data and projected occupancies and utilizes a yield management revenue optimization strategy. When bookings are low, prices will drop. When analytical data suggests rooms will still be sold at a higher rate, they’ll increase.

[chill6x6]

12 minutes ago, xDisconnections said:

I don’t think the prices are too high for the product you receive. Many are willing to pay more than the asking price you would find on Carnival for an elevated experience. The pricing is calculated based on historical data and projected occupancies and utilizes a yield management revenue optimization strategy. When bookings are low, prices will drop. When analytical data suggests rooms will still be sold at a higher rate, they’ll increase.

Oh yeah they are way high....

 

Consider I had a 8-day eastern itinerary OS booked aboard the Empress for this November for $4200(just recently cancelled). March 2022, 7 day itinerary, same exact cabin, out of SJU- $6100. Reminder, this is the oldest, smallest ship currently in Royals fleet. No concierge lounge, etc 

As we speak I have a Crown-loft suite booked aboard Allure for March 2022, 8 day eastern itinerary. This ship has all the bells and whistles Royal has to offer for suites...Coastal Kitchen and Suite lounge included. Price? $7100. So Freedom of the Seas, same exact week, Grand suite which is a lower cabin category...7 days out of SJU....almost exactly the same price. Freedom is a nicer ship than Empress but no SL and no CK...not in the same class as an Oasis class ship.

 

 

[xDisconnections]

4 minutes ago, chill6x6 said:

Oh yeah they are way high....

 

Consider I had a 8-day eastern itinerary OS booked aboard the Empress for this November for $4200(just recently cancelled). March 2022, 7 day itinerary, same exact cabin, out of SJU- $6100. Reminder, this is the oldest, smallest ship currently in Royals fleet. No concierge lounge, etc 

As we speak I have a Crown-loft suite booked aboard Allure for March 2022, 8 day eastern itinerary. This ship has all the bells and whistles Royal has to offer for suites...Coastal Kitchen and Suite lounge included. Price? $7100. So Freedom of the Seas, same exact week, Grand suite which is a lower cabin category...7 days out of SJU....almost exactly the same price. Freedom is a nicer ship than Empress but no SL and no CK...not in the same class as an Oasis class ship.

 

 

You can't compare November to March.

 

Florida is an entirely different market segment than San Juan. Royal Caribbean has these priced strategically in an effort to receive the highest amount of revenue on a perfect sell basis.

 

They clearly believe the demand is there based on forecasts and those in that market looking to use their future cruise credits prior to expiration. If it's more than you're willing to pay, well, vote with your wallet. That's how perishable inventory works.

Edited September 19, 2020 by xDisconnections

[chill6x6]

SJU 7 day cruises:

Empress of the Seas March 2022....117sqft inside cabin- $1824 LOL

Freedom of the Seas March 2022....150sqft inside cabin- $2136 LOL

Compare to:

Horizon 8-day Southern March 2022..170sqft inside-  $1729.

Liberty of the Seas(same class as Freedom)same 150sqft inside cabin- $1568

 

Royal will never sell a 117sqft inside cabin 7-day cruise on a 31yo ship out of SJU for $1824

 

That's it for me on this subject...

Edited September 19, 2020 by chill6x6
Added info...

[xDisconnections]

29 minutes ago, chill6x6 said:

SJU 7 day cruises:

Empress of the Seas March 2022....117sqft inside cabin- $1824 LOL

Freedom of the Seas March 2022....150sqft inside cabin- $2136 LOL

Compare to:

Horizon 8-day Southern March 2022..170sqft inside-  $1729.

Liberty of the Seas(same class as Freedom)same 150sqft inside cabin- $1568

 

Royal will never sell a 117sqft inside cabin 7-day cruise on a 31yo ship out of SJU for $1824

 

That's it for me on this subject...

The older ship is priced less than the newer at prices they believe their target audience for that sailing will deem acceptable. Without Carnival operating from San Juan, there is less competition available to drag down the pricing. What’s wrong?

 

Nobody is forcing anyone to book.

[BlerkOne]

Someone was boasting? about how cheap Royal cruises are out of Galveston compared to Carnival. Doesn't that seem upside down?

[xDisconnections]

1 hour ago, BlerkOne said:

Someone was boasting? about how cheap Royal cruises are out of Galveston compared to Carnival. Doesn't that seem upside down?

Seems to be just a case of yield management and pricing based on availability subject to seasonality. You know, just like any industry that sets rates based on occupancy and forecasts.

 

American Airlines can be thanked for this revenue optimization strategy. 

[Tapi]

9 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

 

Really not that sure why a ship based in Miami couldn't do the same itinerary as one based in Puerto Rico does, even if it takes an extra day. .

If you only have 7 days of vacation, it makes a difference. From Miami to where the Lesser Antilles begin is a good 1,000 miles. From San Juan, It’s less than 60 miles. It’s just impossible to do a 7 night itinerary from Florida that goes as deep into the Caribbean or that visits as many ports. Yes, you can do a longer itinerary from Miami which will involve extra sea days to reach the same destinations, but not everybody has the time or the desire for that. 

Itineraries from San Juan are for cruisers who place more importance on the destinations than on the ship. It’s also for people who rightfully consider San Juan a destination worthy of a few days of exploration before or after a cruise, rather than the insultingly short 6 to 7 hours they normally get on a cruise from Florida. 

 

 

[Joebucks]

10 hours ago, chill6x6 said:

SJU 7 day cruises:

Empress of the Seas March 2022....117sqft inside cabin- $1824 LOL

Freedom of the Seas March 2022....150sqft inside cabin- $2136 LOL

Compare to:

Horizon 8-day Southern March 2022..170sqft inside-  $1729.

Liberty of the Seas(same class as Freedom)same 150sqft inside cabin- $1568

 

Royal will never sell a 117sqft inside cabin 7-day cruise on a 31yo ship out of SJU for $1824

 

That's it for me on this subject...

 

You'd be surprised on how many cruisers don't know or even care how big their room is. There are about 20 more important things than that.

[Viajera7]

6 hours ago, Tapi said:

If you only have 7 days of vacation, it makes a difference. From Miami to where the Lesser Antilles begin is a good 1,000 miles. From San Juan, It’s less than 60 miles. It’s just impossible to do a 7 night itinerary from Florida that goes as deep into the Caribbean or that visits as many ports. Yes, you can do a longer itinerary from Miami which will involve extra sea days to reach the same destinations, but not everybody has the time or the desire for that. 

Itineraries from San Juan are for cruisers who place more importance on the destinations than on the ship. It’s also for people who rightfully consider San Juan a destination worthy of a few days of exploration before or after a cruise, rather than the insultingly short 6 to 7 hours they normally get on a cruise from Florida. 

 

 

+1

[BlerkOne]

There is really no rhyme or reason behind some of Royal's choices.

 

https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/4720/

[cjknox]

23 hours ago, Tapi said:

With Carnival Fascination headed to the scrapyard, and Royal Caribbean sending Freedom of the Seas to Bayonne seasonally, it seemed like San Juan was destined to have zero ships during  the 2021 summer season and would become a seasonal market. 
 

It’s now reported that Royal has reversed course and will now reposition Vision of the Seas (originally scheduled to sail in Europe) to San Juan, returning years round service to San Juan. Until the other cruise lines return in the fall, Royal Caribbean will now be the only cruise lines sailing from San Juan, owning the market 100% during that time.
 

So it seems like Royal Caribbean is taking full advantage of Carnival’s decision to scrap the Fascination and leave San Juan vacant. I know that a lot of people will be glad to have a summer option to sail the Southern Caribbean again. 
 

Thoughts?  

 

Not surprising at all Tapio.

 

Clearly with a smaller fleet Carnival is focusing on more robust routes. The shift from Royal makes sense if they can increase demand with CCL competition gone.

[lazydayz]

6 hours ago, Joebucks said:

 

You'd be surprised on how many cruisers don't know or even care how big their room is. There are about 20 more important things than that.

After seeing the size of their cabin, they might. No thanks, at any price.  

[jimbo5544]

10 hours ago, Tapi said:

If you only have 7 days of vacation, it makes a difference. From Miami to where the Lesser Antilles begin is a good 1,000 miles. From San Juan, It’s less than 60 miles. It’s just impossible to do a 7 night itinerary from Florida that goes as deep into the Caribbean or that visits as many ports. Yes, you can do a longer itinerary from Miami which will involve extra sea days to reach the same destinations, but not everybody has the time or the desire for that. 

Itineraries from San Juan are for cruisers who place more importance on the destinations than on the ship. It’s also for people who rightfully consider San Juan a destination worthy of a few days of exploration before or after a cruise, rather than the insultingly short 6 to 7 hours they normally get on a cruise from Florida. 

 

 

I have never really understood the cruise line logic with SJ as a homeport, whether seasonal or full-time.  I do agree that their  is a demand for the 7 day market.  Fascination would just not cut it for us as an alternative.  I am sure Carnival has plans for San Juan, would love to see a Conquest class ship there.

Edited September 19, 2020 by jimbo5544