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Who goes and who does not??


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I'm curious :  when cruises begin again and the number of people have to be reduced, how are the cruise lines going to decide this, especially because many cruisers have moved their trips so that I would think that many of these ships are full or near full.  What's your opinion?

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I would think cruise lines will know how many they can book and stop accepting bookings at that level. For ships that may already be overbooked according to unknown future guidelines I would think the cruise lines will offer some incentives to book another voyage just like they do now. If they still can't get to their capacities there will most likely be another system to reduce the numbers.

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I don't think the cruise lines would decide on who goes first and who doesn't .  Just like a hotel they would take rooms out of inventory.  For example, 50% of the rooms would be "sold" from day one.  Then booking begins, first come, first served (they might send out an email to past guests or cancelled people). Then when it's "full" it's full.  Just like a hotel doesn't decide who books and who doesn't, if you get a room, great, if not, it's "sold out".  Granted there could be a variety of options, they might take out all the inside cabins, use those for staff and only open up the balconies and higher.  Or 50% straight down the line for all room types. 

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If supply is reduced and demand is high (i.e., cruise lines are finding that their capacity limit is consistently being reached), the inevitable consequence is that prices will increase.

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6 minutes ago, XBGuy said:

If supply is reduced and demand is high (i.e., cruise lines are finding that their capacity limit is consistently being reached), the inevitable consequence is that prices will increase.

 

I was thinking of something similar when I was writing my previous response.

 

Freak possibility they triple their prices because of the induced demand and they make "more" money with reduced capacity than they did prior!  Lowered expenses with lower people too!

 

I've seen it happen already, some restaurants in my area love having their dining room closed.  And they are doing twice or more business with take out and delivery.  I realize not all restaurants are having a good time, we've lost many so far that can't make it.  But, I've seen weird things happen with some businesses during Covid, boom for some, bust for others.  Some businesses have really figured out how to capitalize on the virus.

 

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54 minutes ago, franktown said:

Wouldn't be surprised if they leave the lower priced cabins empty.  They will be trying to maximize revenue.

Did some quick number a little while ago.... and bingo....

If you don't sell anything below a balcony   

reduce passenger count by 45% but only loose about 33% of revenue from fares.....

 

So the idea would work...

could just not sell interiors     and numbers are about 35% less people and 21% income

 

Cheers Don

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Movie theaters have reopened in some areas and based upon sales aren't doing well, even with new releases.  I expect cruises to be the same.  It's easy to say I'll go when Princess says they will sail, but actually getting on the ship is different.  I'm curious to see how many cancel when the first cruises begin.

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4 hours ago, Abercrombie2019 said:

I think some people may cancel when they have a better idea of what the first cruises will actually be like with all of the mitigating measures in place.

 

If masks are required full time I think even my wife will agree we need to cancel. We wear them in stores and such but we both really dislike them. They are uncomfortable and make it hard to communicate well. They also cause glasses to fog up sometimes. A cruise that's "no fun" isn't a cruise for us. Only time will tell what will happen.

Edited by Thrak
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4 hours ago, cruiseypop said:

Freak possibility they triple their prices because of the induced demand and they make "more" money with reduced capacity than they did prior! M

It happened on the MSC Seaside cruise that I have booked for February. Prices literally tripled overnight for my sailing the day after MSC restarted cruising in the Mediterranean. They must’ve received or at least anticipated an avalanche of bookings from people who’s confidence was boosted by the restart. 
 

My sailing is still open for sale, so I hope that they stop selling cabins by a certain capacity percentage before I get bumped since I’m paying considerably less than newer bookings. 

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14 minutes ago, Tapi said:

It happened on the MSC Seaside cruise that I have booked for February. Prices literally tripled overnight for my sailing the day after MSC restarted cruising in the Mediterranean. They must’ve received or at least anticipated an avalanche of bookings from people who’s confidence was boosted by the restart. 
 

My sailing is still open for sale, so I hope that they stop selling cabins by a certain capacity percentage before I get bumped since I’m paying considerably less than newer bookings. 


I don't think they can bump someone who has already booked at the pre-Covid price just to get more passengers at the higher price. They can cancel a cruise but not pick and choose individual passengers to cancel. 

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1 minute ago, vjmatty said:


I don't think they can bump someone who has already booked at the pre-Covid price just to get more passengers at the higher price. They can cancel a cruise but not pick and choose individual passengers to cancel. 

I do think you’re correct. But with so much rampant speculation, I’m starting to believe anything! 

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8 minutes ago, Tapi said:

I do think you’re correct. But with so much rampant speculation, I’m starting to believe anything! 


I know the feeling....I'm worried about next year's transatlantic on Pacific Princess being canceled  if they're truly getting rid of the smaller ships, since she's the smallest!

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I don't think the cruise lines would decide on who goes first and who doesn't .  Just like a hotel they would take rooms out of inventory.  For example, 50% of the rooms would be "sold" from day one.  Then booking begins, first come, first served (they might send out an email to past guests or cancelled people). Then when it's "full" it's full.  Just like a hotel doesn't decide who books and who doesn't, if you get a room, great, if not, it's "sold out".  Granted there could be a variety of options, they might take out all the inside cabins, use those for staff and only open up the balconies and higher.  Or 50% straight down the line for all room types. 


At this point, "day one" for currently available sailings may have been more than a year ago. Some sailings may already be over 50% (or whatever reduction rate eventually gets used), so the cruiseline would definitely need to determine who gets "reduced" in such cases.
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I think the schedules will be changing significantly when they launch.   They have already said that they are going to start with shorter cruises which I would expect will just go to their own island and back until they can get a rhythm going.   So as they will be new cruises, they will only book to the limits they want to have. 

 

I agree that it may become a problem when they start using existing cruises.  At that time, it may be a challenge.

 

With the thought that there will be a vaccine in the first half of 2021, they may also enforce that everyone on the ship has a vaccine and then will start increasing the number of passengers.   They will want to get back to full capacity as soon as they can.  It is the only way they can be profitable.   

 

I agree with an earlier comment, they will raise the prices, if the capacity they can take on is low(assuming they can get it at the beginning, which I think they will).  This will be lots that will just want to get cruising!

 

Realistically, they will probably not start until January.   At that time, there will only be a couple of cruiseships per line sailing, which allows they to have a lot of flexibility around price.

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5 hours ago, jwattle said:

The other factor for cruiser lines is the onboard spending drop of decreased occupancy...

Hi Jo & Tom,

Any Cruise Ship that you guys are on won’t see a revenue loss. LOL 😁😁

Tony

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There’s a thing called a computer.  It can be programmed to do things. One of those things is to limit capacity. The cruise lines all have the technology to do this quietly without us knowing they are even doing it. They simply enter a capacity limit into the magic computer and as each letter code hits its threshold it shows “sold out”.

Edited by AtlantaCruiser72
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7 hours ago, Tak8 said:

Movie theaters have reopened in some areas and based upon sales aren't doing well, even with new releases.  I expect cruises to be the same.  It's easy to say I'll go when Princess says they will sail, but actually getting on the ship is different.  I'm curious to see how many cancel when the first cruises begin.

 

From a stock market news site:

 

Norwegian Cruise Lines  CEO Frank Del Rio told CNBC that bookings are solid with all things considered. "Pricing has held up well. No one is discounting the product, rightfully so. And so we're hopeful that 2021 can be an OK year. It won't be a record year by any means, but it certainly won’t be the disaster that 2020 has been," he stated.

 

A similar theme is out from Royal Caribbean CEO Richard Fain. "Bookings in general have been much better than I think anybody expected, particularly as we get into the year, and people feel more and more confident that we'll be able to be putting the corona virus more and more into the rear-view mirror," he noted.

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11 hours ago, cruiseypop said:

I don't think the cruise lines would decide on who goes first and who doesn't .  Just like a hotel they would take rooms out of inventory. 

 

Could be the policy once the Pandemic started, but many late 2020 and early 2021 cruises were being sold before the pandemic started and may have been at a high occupancy by the time the cruise industry had to stop sailing this year.

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5 hours ago, vjmatty said:


I know the feeling....I'm worried about next year's transatlantic on Pacific Princess being canceled  if they're truly getting rid of the smaller ships, since she's the smallest!

 

In a webinar that Princess and a TA had the other day, cruises on the Pacific Princess were promoted for several areas of the world.

 

Offhand, I do not think there are current plans to dispose of this ship, but economic conditions can change significantly before the Pandemic is brought under control.

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5 hours ago, tert333 said:

I think the schedules will be changing significantly when they launch.   They have already said that they are going to start with shorter cruises which I would expect will just go to their own island and back until they can get a rhythm going.   So as they will be new cruises, they will only book to the limits they want to have. 

 

 

I asked that question at a webinar Princess had the other day with a TA.

 

Response was that if cruising restarts in mid-December as currently planned, itineraries would stay the same unless ports on the itinerary were closed to cruise ships.

 

That does not rule out the possibility of having short cruises as you suggest, but the Princess Development Manager who was on the webinar said that is not in current plans (which we all know can change).

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