For those that think Carnival is going OOB....cruise lines are top S&P 500 movers

[latserrof]

12 hours ago, pc_load_letter said:

 

They're up almost 30% from six months ago genius.

Actually, CCL is up almost 100% since its low in April. But CCL was 60 in January,  and even after its 10% "move" yesterday, only at 15 now (i.e., DOWN 75% from 9 months ago). In other words, its up 8 points from it's low, but down 45 from its high.

 

But as many people here have pointed out, the stock price has virtually no bearing on the company's future viability.

 

And there's no need for name-calling here, please.

Edited September 26, 2020 by latserrof

[latserrof]

45 minutes ago, Roz said:

There are always investors looking for opportunities, and the pent up demand for cruising may be one of them.

I'm not convinced there's much pent-up demand for cruises, except in the rhetoric of cruise-line CEOs and among diehard CC members (and a lot of the latter seem to be jumping ship as they find the CLIA and Healthy Sail recommendations either too restrictive or not restrictive enough). And I'm sure the previous mess with Covid on ships has put a lot of people off, particularly potential first-time cruisers. And in the near term, many folks may be struggling with the economic impact of lockdown and thus not spending on cruises.

Edited September 26, 2020 by latserrof

[skridge]

11 hours ago, pc_load_letter said:

 

The industry has already started. It has shown that cruises can happen safely.

 

Our problem is one of government, not the cruise industry. Planes are flying, Disneyland and hotels are open (as you said). Resorts here in southern CA are all open. We all realize we need the CDC to take off the no sail order then those of you in business friendly climates, FL, TX, etc, will probably get your cruises. Our governor here wants to keep blaming the feds and keep things closed and use bad budgets as an excuse to raises taxes (look our proposition 15). Not sure when we will see cruises from California again.

Cruising isn't happening because there are a bunch of yahoos that will not put on a mask and socially distance themselves.  I spent a weekend in a condo complex where I had to keep getting off the elevator because of all the people that evidently couldn't read the signs plastered all over the walls saying wear a mask.  They are why Americans will not be on cruise ships  anytime soon.

 

[richfret]

The way I see it is that if the Cruise Lines are not allowed to sail within the next 6 to 12  months, they will go under.  Then there will be 20 to 30 cruise ships waiting in various ports and a couple of new ships being built.  All the ships will be ready to be purchased.  The junk ships were all scrapped so the remaining ships should be in decent shape.  Carnival will be gone and a new line (Let's call it FANTAYSHA) will take it's place.  Naturally all fares will double.  Carnival stock will be gone but Fantaysha stock takes its place.  Life continues with some cruisers being very unhappy while others are smiling.     

 

I have $1,300 in Carnival gift cards that I will use as final payment for a January 9, 2021 cruise booked over a year ago.  I doubt the January cruise will take place and I will probably get a $500 credit towards the purchase of another cruise.  If so, I will book another cruise.  I can keep doing this but if my above scenario is right,  my gift cards will eventually be worth the price of saw dust.

[BlerkOne]

5 hours ago, latserrof said:

I'm not convinced there's much pent-up demand for cruises, except in the rhetoric of cruise-line CEOs and among diehard CC members (and a lot of the latter seem to be jumping ship as they find the CLIA and Healthy Sail recommendations either too restrictive or not restrictive enough). And I'm sure the previous mess with Covid on ships has put a lot of people off, particularly potential first-time cruisers. And in the near term, many folks may be struggling with the economic impact of lockdown and thus not spending on cruises.

 

Well I have 7 Carnival cruises and 2 other cruises booked over the next couple of years. When they actually start cruising there maybe more. CC going bankrupt tomorrow would have no impact on that. or Healthy Sail.

[BlerkOne]

2 hours ago, richfret said:

The way I see it is that if the Cruise Lines are not allowed to sail within the next 6 to 12  months, they will go under.  Then there will be 20 to 30 cruise ships waiting in various ports and a couple of new ships being built.  All the ships will be ready to be purchased.  The junk ships were all scrapped so the remaining ships should be in decent shape.  Carnival will be gone and a new line (Let's call it FANTAYSHA) will take it's place.  Naturally all fares will double.  Carnival stock will be gone but Fantaysha stock takes its place.  Life continues with some cruisers being very unhappy while others are smiling.     

 

 

 

It has been done before (allegedly) although not on a scale of Carnival. A cruise line going bankrupt, and having their ship auctioned off. The owner wiped out all the debt, bought the ship for pennies, and restarted with a clean slate. The fares didn't even double.

[latserrof]

1 hour ago, BlerkOne said:

 

Well I have 7 Carnival cruises and 2 other cruises booked over the next couple of years. When they actually start cruising there maybe more. CC going bankrupt tomorrow would have no impact on that. or Healthy Sail.

Huh?

Edited September 26, 2020 by latserrof

[chipmaster]

On 9/25/2020 at 9:50 AM, pc_load_letter said:

Sooooooo tired of people thinking Carvial (and others) could go out of business.

 

As of this morning...Carnival Corp, Royal, and NCL are all in the top 5 on S&P 500 top movers. And that's them going UP, not down.

 

https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/market-movers/s&p_500

 

 

For day traders it's an interesting play, for investors there are so much better fish in the ocean.

 

Take a look compared to a mindless investment in the index, take your pick, are you an investor, speculator, gambler, and do you have the stomach?

 

 

[Eli_6]

Even if Carnival declares bankruptcy, I don't think it will affect your gift cards or future booked cruises.  (For those of us who own stock, we are likely screwed in a bankruptcy.) There will be a restructuring much like what happened with American Airlines a couple of years ago. People with booked flights were still able to fly.  Even when Radio Shack declared bankruptcy, the bankruptcy judge made an allocation for the gift card holders where they had so long to spend it.  There are different types of bankruptcy and usually in a company of this size, it will be a restructuring rather than CCL ceasing to exist. Further, Carnival's creditors want CCL to make money and the only way they will do that is if they are cruising.  Further, there is almost no market for their ships because all lines are in the same predicament so there would not be a huge market to sell the old ships and "liquidate" their main assets for creditors.  So, in sum, I don't worry about my future booked cruises or my gift cards.  Stock is a different issue... fortunately, I only own enough to get the obc for two cabins for our family and my average cost was $11 a share.  

Edited September 26, 2020 by Eli_6

[Roz]

5 hours ago, richfret said:

Naturally all fares will double. 

 

Why?  I venture a guess the majority of cruisers are middle income.  If fares double, cruising will no longer be a viable vacation open for a lot of people, only for the well off.  Is that what you're wanting/suggesting, that we go back to the days when cruising was the domain of the rich?

[Eli_6]

6 minutes ago, Roz said:

 

Why?  I venture a guess the majority of cruisers are middle income.  If fares double, cruising will no longer be a viable vacation open for a lot of people, only for the well off.  Is that what you're wanting/suggesting, that we go back to the days when cruising was the domain of the rich?

Some of us are just cheap. 🤣 

[KnowTheScore]

Carnival Corp released their Third Quarter Summary on 15th Sept.  It stated:

 

"The company's monthly average cash burn rate for the third quarter 2020 was $770 million"

 

That's an incredible amount of money to be hemorrhaging every month.  

 

I don't personally anticipate that the share price will ever recover to former levels. 

[mcrcruiser]

Let us all hope /pray for the best for people involved with getting cruise ships back  into service .  Many good folks who have served & helped us  have not been  employed  since the lock down   , 

[BlerkOne]

6 hours ago, KnowTheScore said:

Carnival Corp released their Third Quarter Summary on 15th Sept.  It stated:

 

"The company's monthly average cash burn rate for the third quarter 2020 was $770 million"

 

That's an incredible amount of money to be hemorrhaging every month.  

 

I don't personally anticipate that the share price will ever recover to former levels. 

That was inline with their projections, Carnival projections for the fourth quarter are significantly less.

[richfret]

7 hours ago, Roz said:

 

Why?  I venture a guess the majority of cruisers are middle income.  If fares double, cruising will no longer be a viable vacation open for a lot of people, only for the well off.  Is that what you're wanting/suggesting, that we go back to the days when cruising was the domain of the rich?

I never said I wanted Carnival pricing to increase nor was I suggesting it.  Pricing, however, will probably increase considerably  to make up for the loses .  I have 23 completed Carnival cruises with 2 cruises booked and the last thing I want to see are price increases.  On the other hand, I am being realistic.

[richfret]

7 hours ago, Eli_6 said:

Even if Carnival declares bankruptcy, I don't think it will affect your gift cards or future booked cruises.  (For those of us who own stock, we are likely screwed in a bankruptcy.) There will be a restructuring much like what happened with American Airlines a couple of years ago. People with booked flights were still able to fly.  Even when Radio Shack declared bankruptcy, the bankruptcy judge made an allocation for the gift card holders where they had so long to spend it.  There are different types of bankruptcy and usually in a company of this size, it will be a restructuring rather than CCL ceasing to exist. Further, Carnival's creditors want CCL to make money and the only way they will do that is if they are cruising.  Further, there is almost no market for their ships because all lines are in the same predicament so there would not be a huge market to sell the old ships and "liquidate" their main assets for creditors.  So, in sum, I don't worry about my future booked cruises or my gift cards.  Stock is a different issue... fortunately, I only own enough to get the obc for two cabins for our family and my average cost was $11 a share.  

 

[richfret]

7 hours ago, Eli_6 said:

Even if Carnival declares bankruptcy, I don't think it will affect your gift cards or future booked cruises.  (For those of us who own stock, we are likely screwed in a bankruptcy.) There will be a restructuring much like what happened with American Airlines a couple of years ago. People with booked flights were still able to fly.  Even when Radio Shack declared bankruptcy, the bankruptcy judge made an allocation for the gift card holders where they had so long to spend it.  There are different types of bankruptcy and usually in a company of this size, it will be a restructuring rather than CCL ceasing to exist. Further, Carnival's creditors want CCL to make money and the only way they will do that is if they are cruising.  Further, there is almost no market for their ships because all lines are in the same predicament so there would not be a huge market to sell the old ships and "liquidate" their main assets for creditors.  So, in sum, I don't worry about my future booked cruises or my gift cards.  Stock is a different issue... fortunately, I only own enough to get the obc for two cabins for our family and my average cost was $11 a share.  

Sure hope you are right about the  Carnival gift cards.   This is the first time I heard of Gift Cards being honored during a bankruptcy.  You won't see me complaining.

[Eli_6]

3 minutes ago, richfret said:

Sure hope you are right about the  Carnival gift cards.   This is the first time I heard of Gift Cards being honored during a bankruptcy.  You won't see me complaining.

 

It would be up to the individual bankruptcy judge. However, if you have already applied them to pay for the cruise, they aren't really gift cards at that point.  You have paid for your cruise.  So, I don't see that being any different than if you had a booked airline ticket.  They didn't cancel the airline tickets of people who had already booked and paid for tickets with American before American declared bankruptcy.  In fact, from the outside, I bet a lot of people didn't even know American Airlines declared bankruptcy. 

 

Here, you can read about other airlines that have filed bankruptcy since Corona: https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurabegleybloom/2020/06/27/airlines-coronavirus-travel-bankruptcy/#228641075f69

[PhillyFan33579]

12 hours ago, Eli_6 said:

 

It would be up to the individual bankruptcy judge. However, if you have already applied them to pay for the cruise, they aren't really gift cards at that point.  You have paid for your cruise.  So, I don't see that being any different than if you had a booked airline ticket.  They didn't cancel the airline tickets of people who had already booked and paid for tickets with American before American declared bankruptcy.  In fact, from the outside, I bet a lot of people didn't even know American Airlines declared bankruptcy. 

 

Here, you can read about other airlines that have filed bankruptcy since Corona: https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurabegleybloom/2020/06/27/airlines-coronavirus-travel-bankruptcy/#228641075f69

I don’t think comparing airline bankruptcies to potential cruise line bankruptcies is a valid comparison. Airlines are vital to the success of any economy, which is the main reason why airlines have continued operations during this pandemic and why they were part of the stimulus package. On the other hand, our government has made it pretty clear they do not care if the cruise lines survive or not. 

[BlerkOne]

1 hour ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

I don’t think comparing airline bankruptcies to potential cruise line bankruptcies is a valid comparison. Airlines are vital to the success of any economy, which is the main reason why airlines have continued operations during this pandemic and why they were part of the stimulus package. On the other hand, our government has made it pretty clear they do not care if the cruise lines survive or not. 

 

Airlines are in a different business. Something that always seems to survive airline bankruptcies are the Frequent Flier miles which amount to just another debt that gets carried over from resurrection to resurrection. There are reasons for that.

[skridge]

3 hours ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

I don’t think comparing airline bankruptcies to potential cruise line bankruptcies is a valid comparison. Airlines are vital to the success of any economy, which is the main reason why airlines have continued operations during this pandemic and why they were part of the stimulus package. On the other hand, our government has made it pretty clear they do not care if the cruise lines survive or not. 

The airlines are also 100% based in the US.  You don't see Panama or the Bahamas on the back of a major airlines plane.  Just my opinion.

[BlerkOne]

39 minutes ago, skridge said:

The airlines are also 100% based in the US.  You don't see Panama or the Bahamas on the back of a major airlines plane.  Just my opinion.

You might see China if the US allowed foreign ownership. Protectionist laws.

[skridge]

1 hour ago, BlerkOne said:

You might see China if the US allowed foreign ownership. Protectionist laws.

I was just trying to point out why I believe the cruise lines should not get any bail out money if they are going to register all there ships in foreign countries to avoid following our labor laws and avoid paying some taxes.

[BlerkOne]

46 minutes ago, skridge said:

I was just trying to point out why I believe the cruise lines should not get any bail out money if they are going to register all there ships in foreign countries to avoid following our labor laws and avoid paying some taxes.

 

A lot of people feel that way, however, if cruise lines were US Flagged, very few could afford to cruise and the lines would be bankrupt anyway.

[mpdog42]

3 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

You might see China if the US allowed foreign ownership. Protectionist laws.

Unless you are talking about the Republic of China...Bring up Communist China is bad forum....Their the reason that we are all in the mess...

Edited September 27, 2020 by mpdog42
correct