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Gamechanger?

dockman

By dockman,
in Holland America Line

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dockman

dockman

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This is the direction United Airlines is moving.  Seems to have good potential for Cruise Industry as well.  Vaccine is still far away and even then many will likely refuse to take the shots.
 
 
You can wait for the vaccine. Be my guest. I hope we have something by the end of the first quarter of 2021.
 
I don't think we can wait that long. Which is why I hope that Abbott Labs (ABT) can bring back some normalcy to this country -- and the world -- with its BinaxNOW rapid antigen test for Covid-19 along with its amazing Navica app that shows if you are safe to be admitted to where you want to go.
 
Look, I am a huge believer in the hoped-for vaccine. I am speaking to Sanofi (SNY) today about their incredible partnership with sworn competitor GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) about their efforts. I am trying to get into the Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) trial that was announced just yesterday.
 
But let's face it: we can't just presume that a vaccine works if a couple of thousand people are walking around in a bunch of cities for two months and they don't come down with anything. And we also can no longer presume that even if it seems to work anyone will take it because the darned thing's gotten so politicized. That's how unreliable the whole federal medical apparatus has become.
 
Which brings me back to Abbott's recently announced rapid test and its really cool Navica app that I have downloaded for free. Right now it is hard to find this 15-minute test because the federal government has procured 150 million of them to start the process of opening America with a higher degree of confidence than we currently have. That's about all that's available of this simple test that's done on premises instead of sending it out to some faraway lab for results.
 
It's pretty easy. A clinician takes a nasal swab, wipes it on a card and in 15 minutes you know if you are positive or negative for Covid-19. The results are then downloaded to your Navica app and a QR code tells you whether you have Covid or not within a 97% accuracy rate. It becomes your easily scanned cellphone test about whether you can enter or not and it is a heck of a lot more meaningful than a temperature take which you could argue may be for show because many really really sick people with Covid don't have temperature.
 
I believe the federal government wants to be able to test kids so they can go school or be turned back if their code shows positive. Obviously, you would keep your child back if she tested positive. The good news would be that both spouses could return to work -- no one would have to make the sad choice between a child's health and their own financial well-being. I think it is the most important priority out there right now.
 
Once Abbott Labs gets fully up to speed, though -- and they are spending hundreds of millions of dollars and hiring thousands of people to mass produce these kits --  the government won't be the only ones with tests. The drug stores can take over and really make this a mass product.
 
Here's how I see things shaking out. I know that the most impossible thing I am going to say tonight is that the Eagles will be in the Super Bowl.
 
Of course, I would go, Covid or not, because I am a total knucklehead Bird fanatic.
 
What I would envision is that by Super Bowl weekend in February everyone would have downloaded Navica and the airlines and stadiums will all have Navica screeners. The day before I go to the airport to fly to Tampa Bay, I will go to my CVS (CVS) after work and get my non-invasive 15-minute test with the results uploaded into my Navica app. I know you might have heard that you have to have some reason that you think you need to take the test. I think we have plenty of reasons so I am not worried about being rejected. You shouldn't be either. You won't be. I'll have my results, in my Navica, by the time I get home.
 
The next day I am going to go to the airport and just like I use my QR as an e-ticket to get on the plane, the airline will have a QR scanner to get your Navica verdict. If I am negative I will get on the plane. When I get to the stadium they, too, will scan my Navica and, again, I will get in to the game to see the Eagles probably beat the Patriots for the second time in three years.
 
Now, there's a catch. The test is only 97% effective. So you still want to wear a mask. But isn't 97% of something better than 100% of nothing? Oh, and after we win? I'm going to Disney World, where, by then, they, too, will have Navica readers so there's no tests, no line, and I am right into the Magic Kingdom.
 
The odd thing? I seem to be the only one who knows this will be the future. Gary Kelly, CEO of Southwest Airlines (LUV) , didn't know about it when I asked him yesterday. I don't know if Disney (DIS) has figured it out either. Suffice it to say I see the future they don't. Get ready for it. It's a lot more likely than a victory by the Eagles in the Super Bowl.
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dockman

dockman

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2 hours ago, CruiserBruce said:

This looks like a quote from some other source. Please identify that source.

 

Also, is the test UA and HA are proposing to use? Doesn't sound like it to me.

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/united-airlines-to-offer-covid-19-testing-starting-from-sfo-to-hawaii

 

yes united is using the abbot labs test as the quick version...never said it was accepted by hawaii....

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Mary229 "Live from...." Rare

Mary229

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All of the tests have proven to be error prone and I would not like being turned away from a cruise because of an inaccurate result.  The cruise lines need to address that first. They need to clearly address what they will do with guests who become ill on board too.   Some of the lines have given guidance on ill passengers but not all.   I do believe as soon as the vaccine is ready it will be required at least until the end of 2021 and perhaps 2022.  I will get the vaccine, effective or not,  and go.  

 

Each one's level of tolerance to risk needs to dictate what they want to do.    The risk I am trying to avoid is not cruising or being stranded on a ship.  

 

Whenever I travel my emergency plan includes disembarking and managing my own crisis on my own terms.  That is what I want to be able to do.  

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dockman

dockman

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"Now, there's a catch. The test is only 97% effective. So you still want to wear a mask. But isn't 97% of something better than 100% of nothing?"

 

  The article never said this was the be all end all solution.  It does however seem to me to be at least one giant possible step to get back to some sort of normalcy in travel and life. I would hope that eventually it could be a self administered test that could be done daily if warranted and would allow people to enter all types of events, restaurants, bars, airplanes, cruises, hotels, etc by having their phone scanned.  Sure some false results would occur but it seems that if it was correct 97% of the time it could weed out a huge portion of infected people and reduce spreading infections.  Certainly worth exploring as one potential positive development.  Without testing and with projected efficacy of a vaccine at around 50-60% it is going to require more than a vaccine to get back to semi normal. 

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Despegue

Despegue

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Dog sniffers are 100% accurate and being trained right now.

 covid19 tests, smartphone-app/covid passport and before boarding sniffer dogs are the future until effective vaccination for the general public is available Worldwide. That will not be before second half of 2021 in any case.

 

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CruiserBruce

CruiserBruce

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59 minutes ago, Despegue said:

Dog sniffers are 100% accurate and being trained right now.

 covid19 tests, smartphone-app/covid passport and before boarding sniffer dogs are the future until effective vaccination for the general public is available Worldwide. That will not be before second half of 2021 in any case.

 

No dog program is fully operational yet. 

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KirkNC

KirkNC

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1 hour ago, Despegue said:

Dog sniffers are 100% accurate and being trained right now.

 covid19 tests, smartphone-app/covid passport and before boarding sniffer dogs are the future until effective vaccination for the general public is available Worldwide. That will not be before second half of 2021 in any case.

 

They are not 100% accurate, they are effective but not 100%.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/24/close-to-100-accuracy-airport-enlists-sniffer-dogs-to-test-for-covid-19

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ABoatNerd

ABoatNerd

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6 hours ago, Hflors said:

Would you be refunded if you test positive?  On longer cruises what would happen to you if you test positive in the middle of the cruise?  Lots of questions.

 

Precisely the opening limitation that precludes me from cruising. I am not going to spend $ to show up and have a false test or real positive and then get kicked to the curb.

 

Neither am I going to pay $ to be held hostage in detention away from land.

 

 

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AncientWanderer

AncientWanderer

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These tests confuse me.  Let's say one is exposed to Covid on the flight to the cruise or at the pre-cruise hotel.  Would this instant test detect that recent exposure?  

I'd assume the illness would incubate and spread during the cruise, without having been detected.  Perhaps I'm mistaken.

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cbr663 Great Review Rare

cbr663

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1 hour ago, AncientWanderer said:

These tests confuse me.  Let's say one is exposed to Covid on the flight to the cruise or at the pre-cruise hotel.  Would this instant test detect that recent exposure?  

I'd assume the illness would incubate and spread during the cruise, without having been detected.  Perhaps I'm mistaken.

 

You are not mistaken.  From Abbott's press release:

 

'...the BinaxNOW COVID-19 Ag Card demonstrated sensitivity of 97.1% (positive percent agreement) and specificity of 98.5% (negative percent agreement) in patients suspected of COVID-19 by their healthcare provider within the first seven days of symptom onset."  (bolding added)  https://abbott.mediaroom.com/2020-08-26-Abbotts-Fast-5-15-Minute-Easy-to-Use-COVID-19-Antigen-Test-Receives-FDA-Emergency-Use-Authorization-Mobile-App-Displays-Test-Results-to-Help-Our-Return-to-Daily-Life-Ramping-Production-to-50-Million-Tests-a-Month

 

Symptom onset is really important as we know that people can have COVID-19 for some time prior to showing any symptoms whatsoever.  So I think that you are correct, a recent exposure may not be detected if the person is not demonstrating any symptoms.

 

This test may be great for cruise ships for testing any symptomatic passengers after the cruise has started.  But as a screening tool prior to boarding its usefulness is greatly diminished imo.  Why go through the logistical nightmare and cost of testing every passenger when the test requires the passenger to have symptoms?  Wouldn't it be much easier and effective to simply deny boarding to any passenger who is displaying symptoms? 

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CruiserBruce

CruiserBruce

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17 minutes ago, cbr663 said:

 

You are not mistaken.  From Abbott's press release:

 

'...the BinaxNOW COVID-19 Ag Card demonstrated sensitivity of 97.1% (positive percent agreement) and specificity of 98.5% (negative percent agreement) in patients suspected of COVID-19 by their healthcare provider within the first seven days of symptom onset."  (bolding added)  https://abbott.mediaroom.com/2020-08-26-Abbotts-Fast-5-15-Minute-Easy-to-Use-COVID-19-Antigen-Test-Receives-FDA-Emergency-Use-Authorization-Mobile-App-Displays-Test-Results-to-Help-Our-Return-to-Daily-Life-Ramping-Production-to-50-Million-Tests-a-Month

 

Symptom onset is really important as we know that people can have COVID-19 for some time prior to showing any symptoms whatsoever.  So I think that you are correct, a recent exposure may not be detected if the person is not demonstrating any symptoms.

 

This test may be great for cruise ships for testing any symptomatic passengers after the cruise has started.  But as a screening tool prior to boarding its usefulness is greatly diminished imo.  Why go through the logistical nightmare and cost of testing every passenger when the test requires the passenger to have symptoms?  Wouldn't it be much easier and effective to simply deny boarding to any passenger who is displaying symptoms? 

Most of the tests will indicate positivity when there are no symptoms, no reason to suspect this test will not. I have not heard any conclusive info on how soon after exposure a person can test positive....a positive test requires some establishment of Covid in the body. But how soon after exposure is the key. 

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rafinmd "Live from...." Rare

rafinmd

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5 hours ago, Despegue said:

Dog sniffers are 100% accurate and being trained right now.

 covid19 tests, smartphone-app/covid passport and before boarding sniffer dogs are the future until effective vaccination for the general public is available Worldwide. That will not be before second half of 2021 in any case.

 

Any idea how long it takes to train a dog to the level needed for service?

 

Roy

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