Will you cruise in Jan. or Feb.?

[iancal]

We have zero interest in cruising with restrictions.  

[voljeep]

21 minutes ago, iancal said:

We have zero interest in cruising with restrictions.  

having a choice is a beautiful thing ... 🍷 ... 🥃 ... 🍸

[arizonaperson]

we have a cruise booked January 2021, our new final payment date is in November 2020 not October,but I don’t think we will cruise January 2021. Too many unknowns right now. (  Will we be required to get a Covid test before boarding, will we have to wear masks all the time ,will we have to take ship sponsored shore excursions, etc. none of that sounds like a fun vacation to us )Our cruise if all goes as planned would be the 3rd or 4 th voyage for that particular ship,so time will tell.

Edited October 13, 2020 by arizonaperson

[cheone]

We will be cruising  in Feb with our corona virus shot. Operation Warp Speed will make this happen.  

Operation Warp Speed is as follows:

1.Moderna and Pfizers Phase 3 trials ends in 2 weeks and results will be published.

FDA will approve the vaccines in Nov. based on the positive results of Moderna and Pfizers similar vaccines based on a RNA messenger.  

2, US govt awarded Pfizer a $1,9 million contract in July to produce 100 million doses to be delivered by Dec.  Already 40 million in stock today.

US govt gave Moderna $1.5 million for 100,000 million doses to be delivered by Dec.

3. Military will distribute the vaccines to Mckesson as soon as there is a FDA approval.

4. Mckesson was contracted as the distributer for the vaccines as McKesson has 1,000s of Distribution

centers throughout United States.

Edited October 13, 2020 by cheone

[By The Bay]

Whilst you have your crystal ball working, can you give me the winning numbers in next weeks Lotto?

[Hlitner]

3 hours ago, cheone said:

We will be cruising  in Feb with our corona virus shot. Operation Warp Speed will make this happen.  

Operation Warp Speed is as follows:

1.Moderna and Pfizers Phase 3 trials ends in 2 weeks and results will be published.

FDA will approve the vaccines in Nov. based on the positive results of Moderna and Pfizers similar vaccines based on a RNA messenger.  

2, US govt awarded Pfizer a $1,9 million contract in July to produce 100 million doses to be delivered by Dec.  Already 40 million in stock today.

US govt gave Moderna $1.5 million for 100,000 million doses to be delivered by Dec.

3. Military will distribute the vaccines to Mckesson as soon as there is a FDA approval.

4. Mckesson was contracted as the distributer for the vaccines as McKesson has 1,000s of Distribution

centers throughout United States.

I love your optimism.  A lifetime working in the Medical and medical insurance industry taught me to be somewhat skeptical with promises and also to accept that nearly all drug trials involve delays.  A good example is just today when Johnson and Johnson announced a pause in its Phase 3 COVID vaccine trial.  This is actually pretty normal (it also happened to the Oxford/Astra Zeneca trial) and means a delay (this could be at least 2 weeks or longer) while the drug company assesses a bad reaction.   

 

Do not mistake the government's subsidizing production with actually getting that vaccine.  Operation warp speed is a great idea and may pay big dividends if any of the drugs in that program eventually clear Phase 3 Trials and get approval.  But that is still a big question and far from certain.  Over the years we have seen many drugs fail Phase 3 trials or go through significant delays and sometimes changes.  Consider that only about 1 in 5000 drugs ever make it to market and approval processes for a vaccine normally take more then 3 years.  We join you in hoping that we can soon get a decent COVID vaccine but would not give even money that the general population will be able to get a vaccine by February.  If and when a vaccine is approved it will initially be allocated to a select group of high risk folks (including first responders. medical workers, seniors, etc) before it is out there to the general public.  Also keep in mind that most of the vaccines in trials will involve 2 shots separated by several weeks.  Operation Warp Speed is a very unique approach and expensive.  It means tax payers are paying big bucks to manufacture and stockpile vaccines that are not yet approved and may never be proven as safe/effective and get that coveted FDA approval..  The gamble is that at least some of the vaccines will eventually get approved and the government investment will have been a good allocation of resources.

 

I do agree that Mckesson is a first class company and will do an excellent job handling distribution once there are an adequate number of doses available.   One possible complication is that at least one of the drugs in Phase 3 will need to be stored at a very cold temperature which creates some additional distribution problems.   Many of the places where folks would go for a shot do not have the storage equipment for the required low temperature.  You also might want to consider a little math.  If half the USA population wants to get a vaccine that involves 2 shots we are talking about more then 320 million doses!  Each of these doses needs a qualified professional to administer the shot and a syringe for each dose.  It is a daunting task.  And if that many US folks would get the vaccine we would still be nowhere near what folks refer to as herd immunity.  This darn COVID bug is a real challenge.

 

Hank

[gmjc2]

One small positive note is that we found several insurance companies that are now covering Covid medical emergencies! Check squaremouth.com it lists many companies and we found one that covers pre-exisiting conditions also and very reasonable price.

 

 

[Grego]

21 hours ago, Roger88 said:

In my opinion 2021 will be no different from what we have right now. I would rather bet on 2022.. or even 2023.. or not even plan anything until there is a decrease in the numbers of Corvid positiv. I also epxect a vaccine to appear as soon as possible 

If you are betting on 2022 or 2023 before cruising will start again, you would lose because there won't be any cruise lines still in business by that time if nothing starts before the end of this year.

We are still booked on one in January 2021 and March 2021 and have a plan to cancel one or both and book one on either the 19th or 20th of December if they are still available. With the safeguards that the cruise lines are incorporating the chances of getting the virus is greatly diminished if one follows the rules.  There will be those that don't but as the wise man said, "You can't fix stupid."

[Ombud]

On 10/8/2020 at 6:16 PM, CineGraphic said:

We have a 7 night sailing booked on the Caribbean at the end of February.

 

If it sails, I'm pretty confident that the itinerary will be vastly different based on what I've been reading/hearing.

 

I also think they will upgrade as many passengers as possible out of inside cabins. (Just a hunch, or wishful thinking on my part)

 

Just in case the cruise is cancelled, or we decide to wait, we've just booked something for late May 2021.

 

Remember, a vaccine could change everything.

That would be a great move ... either upgrade or upsell but at a drastically reduced fee. They will want us to be extremely happy 😊 (my 1st cruise is a BW midship and hoping for a midship unobstructed balcony but I'm fine if left alone)

[Wichard]

No too many unknowns.   We have a cruise booked for October 2021 on the Pacific Princess.  I am not sure that itinerary or the ship will still be around available then.

[chipmaster]

11 hours ago, Grego said:

If you are betting on 2022 or 2023 before cruising will start again, you would lose because there won't be any cruise lines still in business by that time if nothing starts before the end of this year.

We are still booked on one in January 2021 and March 2021 and have a plan to cancel one or both and book one on either the 19th or 20th of December if they are still available. With the safeguards that the cruise lines are incorporating the chances of getting the virus is greatly diminished if one follows the rules.  There will be those that don't but as the wise man said, "You can't fix stupid."

 

Many companies have come and come, if the business is solid someone will find financing and regroup and re-start the business.  The people who hold the debt of the old BK companies may be SOL, but that is the world of finance, business continues where there is a revenue stream.

 

Restaurants come and go, but there are always restaurants, airlines too, cruising is too big to die.  But don't say CCL or RCCL are to big to fail, but in their ashes a new line would emerge.

 

Better to not throw then a lifeline and let them implode and let a Phoenix rise out of their ashes. 

 

Sailing and cruising as well as airline leisure and business travel is finished for 2020 and most of 2021 

[chipmaster]

On 10/13/2020 at 3:22 PM, cheone said:

We will be cruising  in Feb with our corona virus shot. Operation Warp Speed will make this happen.  

Operation Warp Speed is as follows:

1.Moderna and Pfizers Phase 3 trials ends in 2 weeks and results will be published.

FDA will approve the vaccines in Nov. based on the positive results of Moderna and Pfizers similar vaccines based on a RNA messenger.  

2, US govt awarded Pfizer a $1,9 million contract in July to produce 100 million doses to be delivered by Dec.  Already 40 million in stock today.

US govt gave Moderna $1.5 million for 100,000 million doses to be delivered by Dec.

3. Military will distribute the vaccines to Mckesson as soon as there is a FDA approval.

4. Mckesson was contracted as the distributer for the vaccines as McKesson has 1,000s of Distribution

centers throughout United States.

 

There is optimism and then there is delusion and wishful thinking.   Your bullet points don't add up to anything but activity, there are no results of any kind to suggest we should be optimistic.  Money means nothing, numbers mean nothing without a real plan that passes any common sense check should lead anyone to be optimistic.   A smart researcher or reader or leader who study, poke and come to the obvious conclusion, LOL

 

You know every country is accelerating activity, doesn't mean it will happen or that the outcome will be positive.   

 

Even those who are "optimistic" or "delusional" and put down deposits don't have any skin in the game.   It would be interesting who believe so much that they would pay in full with no refund or FCC, that says it all.

 

 

Edited October 15, 2020 by chipmaster

[HaveWeMetYet]

 

chipmaster

 

Outstanding back to back posts.

 

[OccasionalSanta]

Currently booked in late January... Will decide when payment is due on December 1.... But if they are cruising, I will probably go.

[jagoffee]

2 hours ago, chipmaster said:

 

 

 

Even those who are "optimistic" or "delusional" and put down deposits don't have any skin in the game.   It would be interesting who believe so much that they would pay in full with no refund or FCC, that says it all.

 

 

It sounds like you believe those that put down a deposit or pay in full with not get a refund or FCC.  I would not book a cruise if I believe as you say.  But I do not, nor do a lot of other people.

[40yearcruiser]

Are booked for New Years Caribbean on MSC and still hoping that will go. We are willing to wear masks and social distance and feel that since MSC is already cruising successfully in the Med they are the best option for the first cruises out of the US. However, we are booked for Feb. and March out of Australia on Princess and highly doubt that those will be a go. We aren't willing to be quarantined for 14 days before and after the cruises, even if Australia will let us in. And the long flights are another downside. Final payment isn't until Dec. so we will hold on to the reservations until then, but will most likely rebook for 2022 and hope things are more nearly back to normal.

[iancal]

At the moment, the only thing that is 'escalating' is the number of new covid cases, the number of hospitalizations, and the number of deaths.

 

Really, do people expect this to turn magically turn around by Jan?  

 

Must be smoking something good.

[voljeep]

12 hours ago, chipmaster said:

 

Sailing and cruising as well as airline leisure and business travel is finished for 2020 and most of 2021 

huh? my wife booked a flight yesterday for next Monday

 

Plenty of flights still going on

[arizonaperson]

On 10/13/2020 at 3:22 PM, cheone said:

We will be cruising  in Feb with our corona virus shot. Operation Warp Speed will make this happen.  

Operation Warp Speed is as follows:

1.Moderna and Pfizers Phase 3 trials ends in 2 weeks and results will be published.

FDA will approve the vaccines in Nov. based on the positive results of Moderna and Pfizers similar vaccines based on a RNA messenger.  

2, US govt awarded Pfizer a $1,9 million contract in July to produce 100 million doses to be delivered by Dec.  Already 40 million in stock today.

US govt gave Moderna $1.5 million for 100,000 million doses to be delivered by Dec.

3. Military will distribute the vaccines to Mckesson as soon as there is a FDA approval.

4. Mckesson was contracted as the distributer for the vaccines as McKesson has 1,000s of Distribution

centers throughout United States.

Good luck. 🍀 You do know that if and when a vaccine is available, it probably won’t be available to most of us at first. Think of all the healthcare workers, firefighters, police officers and the list goes on and on .( a large number to be offered the vaccine at first)I’m sure there will  be some sort of a system in the USA and other countries,but too many unknowns at this point. (  I am a retired healthcare worker)  I doubt the vaccine at first will be sped  up to give to all of us that just say that they want to cruise or go on vacation ,not happening. 

 

 

I think this post has  totally gone off-topic -as the question was posed :will you cruise in January or February 2021 .

Edited October 15, 2020 by arizonaperson

[iancal]

We are not drinking the kool-aid.  
 

In all probability it will be 2022 for us.  Earlier for land trips though.

[cheone]

1 hour ago, arizonaperson said:

Good luck. 🍀 You do know that if and when a vaccine is available, it probably won’t be available to most of us at first. Think of all the healthcare workers, firefighters, police officers and the list goes on and on .( a large number to be offered the vaccine at first)I’m sure there will  be some sort of a system in the USA and other countries,but too many unknowns at this point. (  I am a retired healthcare worker)  I doubt the vaccine at first will be sped  up to give to all of us that just say that they want to cruise or go on vacation ,not happening. 

 

 

I think this post has  totally gone off-topic -as the question was posed :will you cruise in January or February 2021 .

My post wasn't  off topic.  I said we will be cruising in Feb with our corona Virus shot and the reason is "Operation Warp Speed".  I think the 200 million of the vaccines that will be available in Nov.  will be enough to give to the 51% (Pew Research survey 9/17/20) of the people that will get the Corona virus shot .   USA has confidence in the vaccines to preorder 200 million doses.  Canada has confidence in the vaccines to preordered 100 million doses. Both USA and Canada preorders are being manufactured right now and will be ready when approved.  Other Countries have confidence in the developed vaccines and have preordered  over 1 Billion  doses. 

Princess and other Cruise lines will probably have a policy for those that received the vaccine and those that did not get the vaccine.   I would say that all cruise members will receive the vaccine.   Operation Warp Speed made the process of getting a successful vaccine in 5 months vs 5 years or no development at all (Look at the Swine Flu vaccine failure).  Again, I will be cruising in Feb with a Corona Virus shot and most of the people on our cruise will have gotten the shot.  

Edited October 15, 2020 by cheone

[memoak]

1 hour ago, cheone said:

My post wasn't  off topic.  I said we will be cruising in Feb with our corona Virus shot and the reason is "Operation Warp Speed".  I think the 200 million of the vaccines that will be available in Nov.  will be enough to give to the 51% (Pew Research survey 9/17/20) of the people that will get the Corona virus shot .   USA has confidence in the vaccines to preorder 200 million doses.  Canada has confidence in the vaccines to preordered 100 million doses. Both USA and Canada preorders are being manufactured right now and will be ready when approved.  Other Countries have confidence in the developed vaccines and have preordered  over 1 Billion  doses. 

Princess and other Cruise lines will probably have a policy for those that received the vaccine and those that did not get the vaccine.   I would say that all cruise members will receive the vaccine.   Operation Warp Speed made the process of getting a successful vaccine in 5 months vs 5 years or no development at all (Look at the Swine Flu vaccine failure).  Again, I will be cruising in Feb with a Corona Virus shot and most of the people on our cruise will have gotten the shot.  

There is absolutely no time line that gets us all vaccinated by February. More likely by June or so. If all goes well

[Paula_MacFan]

1 hour ago, cheone said:

My post wasn't  off topic.  I said we will be cruising in Feb with our corona Virus shot and the reason is "Operation Warp Speed".  I think the 200 million of the vaccines that will be available in Nov.  will be enough to give to the 51% (Pew Research survey 9/17/20) of the people that will get the Corona virus shot .   USA has confidence in the vaccines to preorder 200 million doses.  Canada has confidence in the vaccines to preordered 100 million doses. Both USA and Canada preorders are being manufactured right now and will be ready when approved.  Other Countries have confidence in the developed vaccines and have preordered  over 1 Billion  doses. 

Princess and other Cruise lines will probably have a policy for those that received the vaccine and those that did not get the vaccine.   I would say that all cruise members will receive the vaccine.   Operation Warp Speed made the process of getting a successful vaccine in 5 months vs 5 years or no development at all (Look at the Swine Flu vaccine failure).  Again, I will be cruising in Feb with a Corona Virus shot and most of the people on our cruise will have gotten the shot.  

 

I'm gonna bookmark this so I can circle back in February to see how that worked out for you.  

 

In hindsight I wish I had done the same for all the people who swore they would be on a cruise in September.  

[HappyInVan]

2 hours ago, cheone said:

Again, I will be cruising in Feb with a Corona Virus shot and most of the people on our cruise will have gotten the shot.  

 

I'm ready to cruise right now if there's a strict regime of distancing and masks. As Dr Redfield has pointed out, good masks are more effective than a vaccine.

 

That said, it has to be out of a low risk area to low risk destinations. The chances of a disruption are high for high risk areas.

 

Here's the bad news. Seems that there are a very few confirmed cases of reinfection. Mainly for people who had a mild infection the first time.

 

"A 25-year-old man becomes first in the U.S. to contract coronavirus twice, with second infection ‘more severe’

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/13/coronavirus-first-case-of-covid-19-reinfection-confirmed-in-the-us.html?recirc=taboolainternal

 

Logically, it means that there will still be a risk of infection even in populations with herd immunity, from infection or vaccine. Some of us will be wearing masks anyway for a while, in high risk facilities?

 

[chipmaster]

36 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

 

I'm ready to cruise right now if there's a strict regime of distancing and masks. As Dr Redfield has pointed out, good masks are more effective than a vaccine.

 

That said, it has to be out of a low risk area to low risk destinations. The chances of a disruption are high for high risk areas.

 

Here's the bad news. Seems that there are a very few confirmed cases of reinfection. Mainly for people who had a mild infection the first time.

 

"A 25-year-old man becomes first in the U.S. to contract coronavirus twice, with second infection ‘more severe’

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/13/coronavirus-first-case-of-covid-19-reinfection-confirmed-in-the-us.html?recirc=taboolainternal

 

Logically, it means that there will still be a risk of infection even in populations with herd immunity, from infection or vaccine. Some of us will be wearing masks anyway for a while, in high risk facilities?

 

 

Herd mentality doesn't mean you wont' get it again.

 

We have all been exposed to the common cold and flu and for both the mortality is far lower than COVID for the reason being for more than a thousand years we've been exposed to it often first as babies and over and over.  SARs-CoV-2, well it's the first time baby, and for some it will kill you, not as bad as Ebola or other new pathogens, thus as a country, society and race we need to decide what we value.      It's clear some value freedom and economics and cruising and the rest is just collateral damage of life, for others with knowledge we an reduce the damage prefer an approach that has a larger cost to everyone versus a very fatal cost to a few.