Crystal Ball Predications for HAL Restart

[HALrunner]

We have a couple of final payments due soon and I really wish 2020 hadn't shattered my crystal ball;)

 

It has been nearly 2 months since HAL announced the cancellation of cruises through December 15, 2020. I'm grabbing at straws, but looking for any gossip, educated guesses and/or predictions for which destinations may or may not open January/February 2021. For example, Argentina has maintained very strict borders/travel bans since March 2020, so I would assume South America cruises are less likely to be the first to open up to cruises. 

 

We obviously all know that when cruising restarts it will not look the same as pre pandemic.  So predictions on if masks and social distancing will make cruising less desirable are not what I'm looking for. 😷😜☺️

[TomBeckCruise]

Fall 2021 for Europe. Maybe not even then for Americans.

[cruisemom42]

Strictly my guesses:

 

Short cruises out of Florida in the spring, once height of flu season is over.

 

Possibly limited European season in summer 2021 IF US residents allowed to travel to Europe.

 

I'm guessing no Australia or Asia cruises in 2021 unless there are some that would take place at the end of the year. 

 

Hoping that by fall 2021 vaccines will be available and enough people vaccinated that things will begin ramping up toward normalcy.

[KirkNC]

My guess is the first cruises will be 7 days or less in the Caribbean.  They may only include a stop at Half Moon Cay.

[ontheweb]

1 hour ago, KirkNC said:

My guess is the first cruises will be 7 days or less in the Caribbean.  They may only include a stop at Half Moon Cay.

And other than those who just must go on a ship and do not care at all about ports, who would want to take that cruise?

[Tapi]

I agree about Caribbean cruises from Florida being first to restart in the Americas. I bet that all cruise lines with access to a private island will be taking full advantage of it.

 

I'm currently booked on a Feb 2021 cruise that stops in Ocean Cay (MSC) twice. Far from being my first choice, but one of the main reasons why I have this cruise booked is because I feel that such an itinerary will have a better chance of sailing with minimal impact. And the price was way too good to pass up. 

[cruisemom42]

2 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

And other than those who just must go on a ship and do not care at all about ports, who would want to take that cruise?

 

Apparently there are plenty of those, to judge from the posts on CC.

[rotjeknor]

8 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Apparently there are plenty of those, to judge from the posts on CC.

I'll book in an instant ! The Statendam is till anchored off the coast of Scheveningen , The Netherlands, I'm hoping for a cruise to nowhere. Wouldn't hesitate one second.

[Tapi]

19 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

And other than those who just must go on a ship and do not care at all about ports, who would want to take that cruise?

There are times when I want to go on a cruise to discover new destinations to far away places and enjoy a more enriching experience. But there are times when I just want sit back under the palm trees, and enjoy the type of experience that Half Moon Cay provides. 

 

Based on the ever increasing popularity of private islands, and the millions of dollars that cruise lines are spending to either upgrade their current ones or to build new ones, I'd guess that the answer to your question is a huge percentage of the cruising population. 

Edited October 9, 2020 by Tapi

[ontheweb]

1 minute ago, Tapi said:

There are times when I want to go on a cruise to discover new destinations to far away places and enjoy a more enriching experience. But there are times when I just want sit back under the palm trees, and enjoy the type of experience that Half Moon Cay provides. 

 

Based on the ever increasing popularity of private islands, and the millions of dollars that cruise lines are spending to either upgrade their current ones or to build new ones, I'd guess that the answer is a huge percentage of the cruising population. 

That may very well be true, but DW and I are not among those. We have actually done more cruises in Europe than the Caribbean, and never been on a private island. I will concede we may very well be part of a minority. 

[dockman]

alaska may 2021

[Sir PMP]

3 minutes ago, dockman said:

alaska may 2021

That's what I am thinking.

[dockman]

re: Alaska ports

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/10/08/alaskan-cruise-ports-we-may-not-survive-without-2021-cruise-season/5922837002/

[Tapi]

10 minutes ago, dockman said:

re: Alaska ports

I wonder if a temporary exemption to the PVSA could be granted only for ships specifically visiting Alaska from another US port, so that they can be allowed to sail without needing to stop at a port in Canada.  Hopefully that would prevent another canceled season if Canada is not ready to receive cruise ships. 

[Tapi]

32 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

That may very well be true, but DW and I are not among those. We have actually done more cruises in Europe than the Caribbean, and never been on a private island. I will concede we may very well be part of a minority. 

Private islands are definitely not for everybody. My wife will choose to stay on the ship, or only go ashore for a brief amount of time if we are on an itinerary that visits these destinations. And while Half Moon Cay still maintains some of its unspoiled charm, other private islands have become like amusement parks (Coco Cay for example). I have very little desire to visit such destinations. 

 

Given the option between a Caribbean cruise or a European cruise, I'd lean towards a European cruise, but under the current circumstances, I'm choosing to stay closer to home until some of the new protocols are eased. 

[KirkNC]

1 hour ago, ontheweb said:

And other than those who just must go on a ship and do not care at all about ports, who would want to take that cruise?

Not I

[KirkNC]

1 hour ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Apparently there are plenty of those, to judge from the posts on CC.

But a handful of CC posters is a small sample of the cruise universe which I find amazing as they don’t know what the experience will be.

Edited October 9, 2020 by KirkNC

[sfocruiser]

27 minutes ago, KirkNC said:

But a handful of CC posters is a small sample of the cruise universe which I find amazing as they don’t know what the experience will be.

 

 I think the experience would be akin to a TA,  many days at sea.   I took a 7 day RCI cruise on the Allure where I never left the ship.   Had a blast.    Also took the NS inaugural TA with 8 days at sea and was never bored.

 

But you are correct that folks who are used to a traditional itinerary with only a few sea days might be disappointed,  or get cabin fever  😉

[kangforpres]

Well we had 56k new cases of Covid-19 yesterday in the USA. So I think optimistically the 2nd quarter of 2021 if there are effective vaccines widely available in the 1st quarter of 2021.

 

-Paul

[AtlantaCruiser72]

I think the Winter/Spring 2020/21 South America, Asia and Australia seasons will not happen.  I think Europe in 2021 happens on a limited basis but that US travelers are prohibited from cruising, however I think they will operate with guests from the EU/UK, maybe Canada.  Alaska is probably still a no-go for 2021, even if a PVSA waiver is granted.  Winter/Spring 2020/21 Caribbean is dicey still, and probably not going to happen.

 

When will we hear an announcement of extensions?  I think right now that HAL, who extended their pause further than other lines, will wait until after the Coronavirus task force, CDC and Cruise Line execs have the meeting at the White House that they were supposed to have last week that was cancelled.  That meeting was to try and sort out some sort of defined restart protocol that everyone could approve.  This is also why the White House asked CDC to only extend the no-sail order to 10/31/20 rather than the 2/28/21 the CDC had proposed last month.

[Mandalay1903]

I appreciate HAL extending their pause further (and fewer times) earlier this year than some other cruise lines. Better that than the pain of one month at a time.

[kazu]

17 minutes ago, AtlantaCruiser72 said:

I think Europe in 2021 happens on a limited basis but that US travelers are prohibited from cruising, however I think they will operate with guests from the EU/UK, maybe Canada. 

 

 

Unless something goes dismally wrong in Canada, Canadians are welcome in Europe now so I suspect that they will be welcome for European cruises.

Depending on if a vaccine is available or not, or if the U.S. gets under control, I foresee Americans being welcome if they have the vaccine and a certificate and/or if covid is truly under control not just in the U.S. but in Europe.

 

I think your guesstimate in the rest of your post is correct.  Mind you, we are both just guessing and my crystal ball cracked in February this year 😉 

 

 

[drowelf]

2 hours ago, ontheweb said:

That may very well be true, but DW and I are not among those. We have actually done more cruises in Europe than the Caribbean, and never been on a private island. I will concede we may very well be part of a minority. 

Same for us. Less than 5% of our cruising days have been in the Caribbean. We prefer going to interesting ports to view the culture and sites. We are not beach people at all. On our last Caribbean, we never even got off the ship at Half Moon. 

 

We have 2 cruises (well really 3 as one is a B2B) in the spring (Asia) and Fall (Greenland) and are just about ready to cancel the spring Asia set before final payment. 

 

We have a simple criteria for when we will resume cruising. A Safe and Effective vaccine that is ready available and received wide distribution.  

Edited October 9, 2020 by drowelf

[AtlantaCruiser72]

24 minutes ago, kazu said:

Mind you, we are both just guessing and my crystal ball cracked in February this year 😉 

I use a Magic-8 Ball, which went on Hiatus in March and has been stuck on "I an't even effin gonna try dude!" ever since :)

[KirkNC]

I originally predicted summer of 2021 for cruising but now, at least for us, it maybe well in 2022 or even later as I am becoming convinced the cruise experience will be a mere shadow of what it once was.  I understand the need for the protocols but having to have vaccines, wear masks most of the time, only sit a two tops for dining, make reservations for shows and only take ship excursions are not something I want to spend tens of thousands of dollars on.  I can do all those things at home for free.