Just Back From SeaDream: Lessons The Cruise Industry Can Learn From A COVID-Interrupted Trip

[Cruise Critic Chris]

Hi all - 

 

As you know, we had a freelancer on the Caribbean cruise last week that had the COVID cases. We worked with her on this follow-up article, on the lessons that the industry can take away from the experience. Some points in here on what SeaDream did really well, and what parts needed work. It's worth noting, again, that SeaDream did have a successful Norway season, as well as transatlantic. Here's hoping that the line will be able to resume the Caribbean season at some point in 2021. 

[jtwind]

As long as a single case results in a big interruption, and as long as we have imperfect testing that has been shown to have a high level of false negatives when dealing with exposures occurring over the previous 1-3 days, cruising is pretty much doomed until we are vaccinated or get some dramatic changes in testing accuracy.

[DWhit]

As they say, "science is real".   And science says no matter the need or common sense of an action applied to large groups of people, there will be people who do not follow the prescribed action.  You can literally tell people you will execute them if they perform a certain action, and there will be some who still take that action.   People will do stupid things, you can count on it.

 

SeaDream had an excellent plan that should have worked, but its kind of like the movie Jurassic Park.  Life  most often finds a way to to get around the best of plans.

[jtwind]

The people who boarded with the virus didn't break any rules.

 

It was not an excellent plan, because it relied too much on testing that shows a high rate of false negatives for recent exposures.

 

I can propose a plan that WOULD work.  But that would involve having everyone quarantine in a designated hotel very near the embarkation point for about a week, after all of the pre-travel activities (flying, airports, public transportation, going to restaurants, going to bars, visiting friends, visiting relatives) are done 

[DWhit]

 

15 minutes ago, jtwind said:

I can propose a plan that WOULD work.  But that would involve having everyone quarantine in a designated hotel very near the embarkation point for about a week, after all of the pre-travel activities (flying, airports, public transportation, going to restaurants, going to bars, visiting friends, visiting relatives) are done 

Your plan makes no sense from a business perspective, because you wouldn't have any customers.  And on top of that, short of armed guards, whose to say that people wouldn't get tired of the hotel and sneak out.  Or catch it from a hotel employee, or any other of a myriad of ways of making your plan not work.  

 

 

[jtwind]

20 minutes ago, DWhit said:

 

 whose to say that people wouldn't get tired of the hotel and sneak out.  Or catch it from a hotel employee, or any other of a myriad of ways of making your plan not work.  

 

 

 

Agree.  You're proving my point.  You can get an exposure anywhere.  And the testing isn't good enough to catch it.

 

Sure, they had a few successful cruises with this plan.  But it was doomed to fail.  That doesn't make any business sense either.

 

The smart cruise lines are the one's who realize that the only way to keep the virus off the ship with the currently available testing, is to have the quarantine I suggested.  So they didn't even try to restart.

 

I'm guessing that, if the few cruise lines that had started to cruise could have a do over, they would say that it didn't make any economic sense to do so.

[DWhit]

Since I haven't had COVID yet, I agree with many on these boards who are waiting for the vaccine before resuming cruises.  Once my wife and I are effectively vaccinated, I will be ready to hit the high seas!  Then it will just be a case of finding the right line that will not require a bunch rules that will take all the fun out of things.

[jtwind]

Would you go on a cruise that didn't require proof of vaccination?  That would be the rule that I would want.

[DWhit]

1 hour ago, jtwind said:

Would you go on a cruise that didn't require proof of vaccination?  That would be the rule that I would want.

I see your point and that would definitely be a great thing to have for a cruise.  But, for example, if we could be vaccinated by March of next year, we would likely go on the SeaDream cruise we currently have reserved if SeaDream is sailing again by then, no matter whether they require vaccinations for everyone or not.

 

I realize if someone comes down with Covid on the ship, it could cut the cruise short, but I think we would get a fair shake from SeaDream, and hopefully would not get stuck quarantined in a hotel for any significant time.  Its somewhat of a risk, but to me it seems worth it.

[JES4845]

Excellent and informative back and forth on this thread - quite civil so it is refreshing!

 

The difficulty at least for the next year or so is the uneven and sequenced distribution of vaccines.  In sum, vaccines will not be available to everyone, not even all who want it right away (about 60% of the USA population per polls).  The roll out will take months.

 

Rightfully the priorities are health care workers, other first responders, nursing home residents and those with relevant serious pre-existing conditions, etc.  So how will this work when by Spring 2021 some potential cruisers will be vaccinated but others will not.  Same for the crew, airline employees, and all those persons a vaccinated cruiser comes into contact with along the journey to the ship, on the ship and returning home?

 

Dr. Fauci has said vaccination of 75 percent of the population - not just here but wherever one is traveling - is necessary before community spread of the virus is under control.  That’s simply not going to happen overnight or in weeks or months.  For example, what country is going to set aside limited early vaccine supplies for cruise ship crews?

 

So the moral question is whether those vaccinated early are actually helping to spread the virus by traveling prematurely.  This would happen because while the vaccinated are themselves assumed safe, them traveling will by definition facilitate contacts among  the non-vaccinated who are still vulnerable.  Or is it worse not to travel and continue the economic devastation of those who depend on travel for their jobs?

[JES4845]

P.S. to my post above, here is a fascinating article on the question of who gets a vaccine when.  As the article posits, should an older person, say 69 in their example, rich and working from home get vaccinated merely because of age ahead of a 26-year old taxi driver spending all day with passengers in a cramped indoor space?

 

Coronavirus vaccines are coming. Who should get them first?

Public health officials are hashing out how to prioritize within their countries.

By William Booth, Eva Dou, Robyn Dixon and Luisa Beck

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/covid-vaccine-distribution/2020/11/21/915c3d52-29cb-11eb-9c21-3cc501d0981f_story.html

 

Download The Washington Post app.

[sofietucker]

OUTRAGEOUS and beyond ludicrous to see that photo of the bar staff posing with his mask below his nose!!! The NOSE is where the virus goes in and out, genius. Anyone (like the other bartender, or the writer of this post who apoarently took the photo but didn't notice he was out of compliance, or the CC reviewers who published it) deserves ire. Wonder if he was one of the CREW who ended up testng positive??? For me, this idiocy completely negates any of Sea Dream's attempts at safety for its passengers.

[Catlover54]

The article which reported the cruise experience before and after pax and crew tested positive was interesting.

But looking at the photo of the two crew members, if Sea Dream wants to improve a few things, it might want to start by instructing crew not to wear their masks under their noses, as the guy in the black mask is doing in the photo.🙄

[jtwind]

I agree with how masks should be worn.  Properly worn masks can prevent spread.  But someone boarded with the virus, and once a single person is determined to have the virus, game over.

[Ragnar Danneskjold]

On 11/22/2020 at 5:53 AM, JES4845 said:

P.S. to my post above, here is a fascinating article on the question of who gets a vaccine when.  As the article posits, should an older person, say 69 in their example, rich and working from home get vaccinated merely because of age ahead of a 26-year old taxi driver spending all day with passengers in a cramped indoor space?

 

Coronavirus vaccines are coming. Who should get them first?

Public health officials are hashing out how to prioritize within their countries.

By William Booth, Eva Dou, Robyn Dixon and Luisa Beck

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/covid-vaccine-distribution/2020/11/21/915c3d52-29cb-11eb-9c21-3cc501d0981f_story.html

 

Download The Washington Post app.

Did a back if the envelop calculation on how many person-hours it will take to vaccinate 150 million Americans in 100 days, assuming the vaccine manufacturing can keep up.  I based this on the time a nurse or pharmacist takes to administer a shot, including setup, asking quick health questions, giving the shot, paperwork, and clean up.  I recently went through this with the flu shot, given in a drive-through method at our GP’s office.  I come up with that we will need about 20,000 people working eight hour shifts for those 100 days (running 2 shifts per day, so that people don’t have to take off from work).  There are 3,800,000 Registered Nurses in the US.  So labor to administer the vaccine should not be an issue.  Of course there will need to be folks to direct traffic, do administration, create sign-up websites, etc.)

 

So after  vaccinating medical personnel, first responders, and nursing home folks, etc., we should skip further prioritization and just get on with it, maybe randomly assigning time slots by social security number, etc.  The more they fool around with prioritization, and all the social justice engineering that will bring, the longer it will take to get to herd immunity.  And that is what will save lives and get the economy going again.  They need to do this the way the polio vaccine was distributed - fast, first come first served.  No dillydallying!

 

PS - I can remember lining up in huge snaking lines at the local high school parking lot to get the sugar cube with squirt of pink vaccine on it.  I think the national guard ran the operation.  This would not be safe with covid, need to maintain physical and temporal distancing.  I think  drive-through setups could work well. 

 

 

Edited November 29, 2020 by Ragnar Danneskjold

[Ragnar Danneskjold]

To head off the SJWs on the thread, of course existing social services departments and organizations can do outreach to folks that may have issues with getting into the main vaccination program.  But these efforts should not diffuse the main program aimed at getting as many people vaccinated as soon as possible.

 

Ragnar “Soft-hearted” D.

[JES4845]

Ragnar, you’ve put your finger on a key assumption - what is the rate of manufacturing the two vaccines likely to be ready first - Pfizer and Moderna.  What do we know?

 

Read today that the two companies combined expect to be able to vaccinate 20 million people with the double doses by the end of this year, 2020.  I was under the impression they had been stockpiling the doses not waiting for emergency use approval before manufacturing commenced.  This implies the rate of manufacture going forward is likely slower than required to vaccinate 150 million people in 100 days.

 

As to how much effort it will take in terms of personnel, etc. in your back of the envelope calculation, I have read that handling and administering the Pfizer and Moderna viruses will be much harder than the annual flu shot.  Specialized training is required.  Not sure how much training time to factor into your estimates.  (The AstraZeneca virus is easier to administer, but less effective based on their own data.)

 

Tend to agree with you that once the clear priorities are vaccinated, the fewer granular priorities the better.  Based on polling data, a large portion of people are resistant and I’m afraid would resist even more if forced to get vaccinated via being given an assigned date and time.  I’m ready to get it as soon as lawfully allowed!

[Ragnar Danneskjold]

Well, the Brits are out in front of the FDA, who seem to be continuing to do everything they can to delay US approval and vaccinations:

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/02/uk-approves-pfizer-biontech-coronavirus-vaccine-for-use.html

At least the Brits will be able to get back to local cruising fairly soon.

[mcpepe]

Many people will refuse this vaccine, as they refuse the flu shot yearly. And unless there's a mandatory vaccine requirement for cruising, there will always be the next outbreak waiting to happen.

 

There's just too much possible exposure, whether passive or deliberate, while traveling to embarkation ports. 

 

So yes I would be pretty angry if my vaccinated self has my cruise cut short because of someone sailing who chose not to be vaccinated and is now positive.

 

So I for one will not be cruising until a vaccine is mandatory for that line. Such a shame that both my loves, Seadream and Hurtigruten, the only lines I've sailed, numerous times, in the last 6 years, have been involved in outbreaks.

 

 

[Ragnar Danneskjold]

One thing about this that I hope becomes permanent - the elimination of buffets.  Ghastly things.  Good riddance, I say 🙂

 

 

 

[Jim Avery]

32 minutes ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

One thing about this that I hope becomes permanent - the elimination of buffets.  Ghastly things.  Good riddance, I say 🙂

 

 

 

Haha,, not a fan of Golden Corral then?🍷

[Ragnar Danneskjold]

🤮

[Ragnar Danneskjold]

Well, here are half of my 20,000 🙂

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/10/cvs-health-has-10000-staffers-ready-to-vaccinate-seniors-at-nursing-homes.html