New vaccine

[tring]

4 hours ago, Josy1953 said:

I don't know how this happened, but for some reason my post got duplicated and now I can't delete it.

 

The edit button is now accessed by touching the three dots to rhs of post then choosing edit.

 

If you touch the bottom of your post, where edit button used to be, it makes a quote, so duplicates your post.  You can get out of that by going back or to another thread, but if you click save (or submit) below your new post, you cannot delete the duplicate, though can still edit or delete words posted via clicking the three dots and choosing edit. 

 

The only way you can get rid of the duplicate then is to touch the three dots at rhs and then choose "report post" and then write please delete my post.  Admin can delete a post of your own if you ask, but no one else can ask for that to be done, unless of course there is a problem with the post concerned.

 

[terrierjohn]

5 minutes ago, Selbourne said:

John I sincerely hope that you are right, but fear that you are way out. To get far enough down the priority list to include all those over 65 means around 17m people need vaccinating. Let’s say they quadruple  the current vaccination rate and jab 1m this coming week, on top of the 1m done in the first month, that still leaves 15m to be done by mid Feb. That’s over 3m a week, or 12 times the current rate, to meet your mid Feb date. I suspect that, at best, it will be half that and of course that assumes continuous large scale supplies, which seem not to be guaranteed. I’d love to share the optimism that you and others have, but just some very simple arithmetic says that this is all going to take a lot longer than many people think. 

Selbourne  please give me the link that shows 17m in the priority groups and over 65 s, because there are only 11.8 m people over 65 in the uk, and I cannot believe there over 5m vulnerable over 65s and front line care staff.

[Josy1953]

3 minutes ago, tring said:

 

The edit button is now accessed by touching the three dots to rhs of post then choosing edit.

 

If you touch the bottom of your post, where edit button used to be, it makes a quote, so duplicates your post.  You can get out of that by going back or to another thread, but if you click save (or submit) below your new post, you cannot delete the duplicate, though can still edit or delete words posted via clicking the three dots and choosing edit. 

 

The only way you can get rid of the duplicate then is to touch the three dots at rhs and then choose "report post" and then write please delete my post.  Admin can delete a post of your own if you ask, but no one else can ask for that to be done, unless of course there is a problem with the post concerned.

 

Thanks, I will do that.

[Splice the mainbrace]

11 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

Selbourne  please give me the link that shows 17m in the priority groups and over 65 s, because there are only 11.8 m people over 65 in the uk, and I cannot believe there over 5m vulnerable over 65s and front line care staff.

 

According to the DHSC figures there are around 15 million in the first 5 priority groups of 65 and above but this includes care home, health and social care workers. Group 6 includes 2.2 million of 16 - 64 years old with serious underlying health conditions taking the total to 17.2 million.

[bee-ess]

1 hour ago, terrierjohn said:

By mid february most people over 65 should have been vaccinated, this will greatly reduce the pressure on hospitalization cases.

I am 68 and will be astonished if I am offered a vaccine in the next 6 weeks. I'd be very happy if that happened but going by this Govt's performance on testing and track and trace I wouldn't bet on it.

[AnnieC]

1 hour ago, zap99 said:

Don't forget that a third if folks won't have it. I seem to recall you saying you wouldn't have an untried vaccine. Forgive me if you didn't say that🤔

I doubt any of us would have an untried vaccine!

[Selbourne]

34 minutes ago, zap99 said:

17m less the third who say they won't have it leaves 12m. At 2 million a week. My simple arithmetic must be too simple. But we don't know do we?, we are guessing. As the programme with the Oxford jab dont start till Monday, isn't it fair to give people a chance .?

Two things. Firstly, is there any firm evidence so far to suggest that one-third are in fact declining the vaccine? I’m not being argumentative, I just haven’t seen any stats reported on this and I’d be surprised if that many people were so stupid, given the impact that this virus has had on our lives. Secondly, I don’t think it follows that for every person who declines another automatically slots into their exact place. As I understand it, a lot of appointments are being made by letter. Do all these people who don’t want it respond or just not turn up? Even if they respond, there must be admin & lead time issues that results in delay?

[FamilyCruiserUK]

I would change the priority of the vaccine.

My sister works for the NHS, its not the number of people being admitted its the number of staff who are off isolating. Controversial i know but for me i would do the following.

 

Hospital staff.

Care home workers.

Teachers.

Any body involved in testing etc.

Then by age.

 

Yes help those who are at most risk but also keep schools open, children have lost too much education as well as parents taking time off for child care,  esp hospital staff.

 

Must try to limit the spread as well as handing out the vaccine. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[terrierjohn]

5 minutes ago, FamilyCruiserUK said:

I would change the priority of the vaccine.

My sister works for the NHS, its not the number of people being admitted its the number of staff who are off isolating. Controversial i know but for me i would do the following.

 

Hospital staff.

Care home workers.

Teachers.

Any body involved in testing etc.

Then by age.

 

Yes help those who are at most risk but also keep schools open, children have lost too much education as well as parents taking time off for child care,  esp hospital staff.

 

Must try to limit the spread as well as handing out the vaccine. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NHS staff should now be given tests to establish if they are covid positive, rather than need to self isolate, so staff shortages should now be much more limited.

[Selbourne]

49 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

Selbourne  please give me the link that shows 17m in the priority groups and over 65 s, because there are only 11.8 m people over 65 in the uk, and I cannot believe there over 5m vulnerable over 65s and front line care staff.

I did a quick calculation based on the stats published by the CovidAuditor as linked by Sky News and posted on here I think yesterday. To save you looking it up;

 

Group 1.
Care Home residents = 0.5m

Their Carers = 0.5m

 

Group 2

Over 80’s not in group 1 = 3.0m

Frontline Healthcare Workers & Social Care Workers = 2.5m

 

Group 3 

75-79 = 2.2m

 

Group 4

70-74 = 3.3m

Clinically Extremely Vulnerable = 1.4m

 

Group 5

65-69 = 3.3m

 

Total Groups 1 to 5 = 16.7m

Approx 1m vaccinated to date = 15.7m to go

Oxford Vaccines being rolled out this week 530k

Pfizer vaccines left - unclear. Possibly 2-3m max. 
Future deliveries TBC but assuming plentiful and continuous supply (??) requires approx 3m a week to be vaccinated to get all the above groups done by Mid Feb. Current rate 250k per week. 

 

 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Selbourne

[FamilyCruiserUK]

3 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

NHS staff should now be given tests to establish if they are covid positive, rather than need to self isolate, so staff shortages should now be much more limited.

 

Those that are in work are tested twice a week. However those told to isolate will not come into work for a test and then fall under the same rules as everyone else.

[Splice the mainbrace]

5 minutes ago, Selbourne said:

Two things. Firstly, is there any firm evidence so far to suggest that one-third are in fact declining the vaccine? I’m not being argumentative, I just haven’t seen any stats reported on this and I’d be surprised if that many people were so stupid, given the impact that this virus has had on our lives. Secondly, I don’t think it follows that for every person who declines another automatically slots into their exact place. As I understand it, a lot of appointments are being made by letter. Do all these people who don’t want it respond or just not turn up? Even if they respond, there must be admin & lead time issues that results in delay?

 

RSPH | New poll finds BAME groups less likely to want COVID vaccine

[Selbourne]

1 minute ago, Splice the mainbrace said:

 

RSPH | New poll finds BAME groups less likely to want COVID vaccine

Staggering given that many have called for BAME groups to be moved up the priority list due to their greater risk of dying from the virus. Nowt so queer as folk!

[NewWestwardbound]

2 hours ago, AnnieC said:

By mid february most people over 65 should have been vaccinated, this will greatly reduce the pressure on hospitalization cases.

 

Whilst this is what I would have expected, there was an interview with an ICU Dr on R5 that suggested that most ICU in patients were in their 50s. 

 

[zap99]

19 minutes ago, AnnieC said:

I doubt any of us would have an untried vaccine!

I think you will find that a few hundred thousand throughout the world who took part in the trials did just that. A good few on here as well.

[FamilyCruiserUK]

Those who dont have the jab should pay or have insurance for any future covid treatment. I know this sounds harsh but when i think about my family i want them to be protected and for everyone to help each other acheive that. 

[zap99]

21 minutes ago, FamilyCruiserUK said:

I would change the priority of the vaccine.

My sister works for the NHS, its not the number of people being admitted its the number of staff who are off isolating. Controversial i know but for me i would do the following.

 

Hospital staff.

Care home workers.

Teachers.

Any body involved in testing etc.

Then by age.

 

Yes help those who are at most risk but also keep schools open, children have lost too much education as well as parents taking time off for child care,  esp hospital staff.

 

Must try to limit the spread as well as handing out the vaccine. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

How about shop workers, bus drivers etc

[grapau27]

3 minutes ago, Selbourne said:

Staggering given that many have called for BAME groups to be moved up the priority list due to their greater risk of dying from the virus. Nowt so queer as folk!

Currently 50,000 or 350,000 people a week testing positive for covid19.

I mentioned this before as I have  had covid19 so  if we have antibodies would we all come out of the vaccine equation then the speed of vaccination to other groups would be speeded up.

[Splice the mainbrace]

4 minutes ago, Selbourne said:

Staggering given that many have called for BAME groups to be moved up the priority list due to their greater risk of dying from the virus. Nowt so queer as folk!

 

Quite. On the news a few weeks ago on BBC news they interviewed on the street an elderly BAME lady who said that she wouldn't have the jab as God will protect her. See went on to say I have never had a disease because God has always looked after me!! Another said that they wouldn't have it because there is a chip in it, when the interviewer asked how he knew that he said that he had read it on Instagram.

[grapau27]

5 minutes ago, zap99 said:

I think you will find that a few hundred thousand throughout the world who took part in the trials did just that. A good few on here as well.

And we should all applaud them for doing this to help everyone else.

[Angel57]

4 minutes ago, zap99 said:

How about shop workers, bus drivers etc

And thereby lies a problem. Where do you draw the line......

[grapau27]

4 minutes ago, zap99 said:

How about shop workers, bus drivers etc

Every key worker should be first.

[Splice the mainbrace]

2 minutes ago, grapau27 said:

Currently 50,000 or 350,000 people a week testing positive for covid19.

I mentioned this before as I have  had covid19 so  if we have antibodies would we all come out of the vaccine equation then the speed of vaccination to other groups would be speeded up.

 

I think that would make the roll out even more complicated and they couldn't guarantee the long term natural protection.

[Eglesbrech]

1 minute ago, grapau27 said:

Every key worker should be first.

But who decides who the key workers are? There would be a great debate about that. As Angel says where do you draw the line.

 

The current priority list has been designed to save the most lives.

 

 

[terrierjohn]

23 minutes ago, Selbourne said:

I did a quick calculation based on the stats published by the CovidAuditor as linked by Sky News and posted on here I think yesterday. To save you looking it up;

 

Group 1.
Care Home residents = 0.5m

Their Carers = 0.5m

 

Group 2

Over 80’s not in group 1 = 3.0m

Frontline Healthcare Workers & Social Care Workers = 2.5m

 

Group 3 

75-79 = 2.2m

 

Group 4

70-74 = 3.3m

Clinically Extremely Vulnerable = 1.4m

 

Group 5

65-69 = 3.3m

 

Total Groups 1 to 5 = 16.7m

Approx 1m vaccinated to date = 15.7m to go

Oxford Vaccines being rolled out this week 530k

Pfizer vaccines left - unclear. Possibly 2-3m max. 
Future deliveries TBC but assuming plentiful and continuous supply (??) requires approx 3m a week to be vaccinated to get all the above groups done by Mid Feb. Current rate 250k per week. 

 

 

How do they calculate 2.5m FRONT LINE health care workers when the NHS only has 1.4m employees?