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Not much of a chance.  Just like my 10 day Alaska, out of San Fransisco, in May.  I give it a 2% chance of sailing. I am actually thinking of booking a different trip.  Maybe an all inclusive in Mexico, or something. I don't have many time frames during the year that I can go anywhere for a vacation.  I usually have a week in May to take advantage of.  I would rather know now instead of getting the month by month cancellations. I just miss the beach so much!  I need to see the water. 

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10 hours ago, klfrodo said:

Give me your uneducated odds of my April 24, 2021 Carnival Panorama cruise actually sailing on time out of Long Beach.

I'm thinking less than 50% but more than 25%. Since it's my money and my hopes, maybe I'm being a bit optimistic.

 

What say you?

 

I think it is 0% out of Florida and Texas.  I think it is less than 0% out of California.  No way they are going to have enough vaccine distribution by then to warrant putting people on ships and with this wave of the virus being the worst one yet, I don't see it happening.  

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My prediction is 0%. 
 

I just had two cruises in January and February from Florida cancelled, which I fully expected. 
 

I have cruises from Florida booked in May, July and August. At this point I think the chances of these cruises actually sailing are pretty low. However, a lot can change if vaccines are as effective as promised, are widely disseminated, and most importantly, people actually get the vaccine. I think successful vaccines would likely lead to cruises resuming in the US in late Summer or early Fall. 

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1 hour ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

My prediction is 0%. 
 

I just had two cruises in January and February from Florida cancelled, which I fully expected. 
 

I have cruises from Florida booked in May, July and August. At this point I think the chances of these cruises actually sailing are pretty low. However, a lot can change if vaccines are as effective as promised, are widely disseminated, and most importantly, people actually get the vaccine. I think successful vaccines would likely lead to cruises resuming in the US in late Summer or early Fall. 

A lot of “ifs” in there.

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I would have to concur on the 0% for April. I have a November2021 cruise booked on the PANORAMA and I'm not 100% confident of that date and I'm not interested in mask, distancing and ship-sponsored tours at all. Wondering if you could still cancel penalty free if those conditions were still on ?

 

I cruised the PANORAMA in January, just before lockdown, and had an Aug2020 cruise cancelled on this beautiful ship. Really frustrating trying to figure this all out.

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21 minutes ago, glrounds said:

I have a November2021 cruise booked on the PANORAMA and I'm not 100% confident of that date and I'm not interested in mask, distancing and ship-sponsored tours at all. Wondering if you could still cancel penalty free if those conditions were still on ?

Sorry, your cruise is on Carnival.  You can only cancel penalty free if it's done before final payment and with a refundable deposit booking.  Carnival does not have the "Cruise with Confidence" mantra that some of their competitors have, that lets you cancel at the last minute and turn your booking into a FCC.

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1 minute ago, SNJCruisers said:

  Carnival does not have the "Cruise with Confidence" mantra that some of their competitors have, that lets you cancel at the last minute and turn your booking into a FCC.

Not commenting on you personally or on your post or on your opinion. Just expressing my own opinion.

Turning my hard money into an FCC with or without additional OBC (with exorbitant amount of margin built into on board purchases) have no appeal to me. I'm not a loyal enough of a customer to float them a loan.

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4 minutes ago, SNJCruisers said:

Sorry, your cruise is on Carnival.  You can only cancel penalty free if it's done before final payment and with a refundable deposit booking.  Carnival does not have the "Cruise with Confidence" mantra that some of their competitors have, that lets you cancel at the last minute and turn your booking into a FCC.

 

Well then, when we get to the FINAL PAYMENT date, sometime in August, will Carnival be able and willing to tell me if those mask, distancing, tours conditions still exist ?

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12 minutes ago, klfrodo said:

Not commenting on you personally or on your post or on your opinion. Just expressing my own opinion.

Turning my hard money into an FCC with or without additional OBC (with exorbitant amount of margin built into on board purchases) have no appeal to me. I'm not a loyal enough of a customer to float them a loan.

 

There are ways to get around the "exorbitant amount of margin built into onboard purchases" . . . calculate the tips that are taken out and put the remainder into a casino account. Ca$h in the casino account. Voila !

I'm with you, I seldom buy anything onboard (unless it's the last night at sea) and always collected my OBC this way, although there is talk of Carnival eliminating this way out, thereby NOT allowing you to collect all your OBC.

Edited by glrounds
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13 minutes ago, glrounds said:

 

Well then, when we get to the FINAL PAYMENT date, sometime in August, will Carnival be able and willing to tell me if those mask, distancing, tours conditions still exist ?

What is required at final payment time in August may change by the time your cruise occurs in November.  If you have a refundable deposit attached to your cruise, then make the decision one way or another.  If your deposit is non refundable, then only you can decide if losing those monies is worth the cancellation based upon the possibility of the mask, distancing and tour conditions that you despise.

I personally think that one or more of the three things you despise will be in effect until 2022.  I fully expect them to be in effect during our 5 and 7 day side to side cruises in January of 2022.

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18 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

The states actually trying to do something to control the virus will likely be out of the woods before those who do nothing. Cali may well have cruising before Florida.

Except our Floriduh governor is already pushing for cruising to return. 

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On 12/4/2020 at 11:50 AM, tallnthensome said:

25% says it sails .... 75 the other way. June is my best estimate with the vaccine roll out. April is too soon. Cancelled my April last week. 

Just curious; if you cancel now before Carnival officially cancels it themselves are they making you pay a fee? 

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1 hour ago, matymil said:

Just curious; if you cancel now before Carnival officially cancels it themselves are they making you pay a fee? 

If you booked with a non refundable deposit, and you cancel, the fee involved is your deposit.

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2 hours ago, deadmoney said:

I think he's more of a lets get to herd immunity and get on with out lives guy.

IMHO

And he isn't wrong.

That is great if all cruisers are from Florida - which they aren't. So anyone coming down can be infected if not careful, and bring it back with them to infect many others, risking lasting side effects or death.  I do not think cruising will start for many more months - I definitely think my March cruise will be cancelled and I will re-schedule for 3rd time.

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2 hours ago, deadmoney said:

I think he's more of a lets get to herd immunity and get on with out lives guy.

IMHO

And he isn't wrong.

He is a, the only way we can survive is smartly being open, vs the lockdown kings on the coasts.  That said, their numbers are MUCH WORSE.  Go figure.  Cruising will start for Carnival in Miami, the PC followed by Galveston.  It is what Carnival has said from the beginning.  

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1 minute ago, pe4all said:

That is great if all cruisers are from Florida - which they aren't. So anyone coming down can be infected if not careful, and bring it back with them to infect many others, risking lasting side effects or death.  I do not think cruising will start for many more months - I definitely think my March cruise will be cancelled and I will re-schedule for 3rd time.

Anyone going anywhere is not careful they can become infected.  

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2 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

Anyone going anywhere is not careful they can become infected.  

So true.  Or possibly infected again if they had covid already.

Edited by pe4all
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2 hours ago, pe4all said:

So true.  Or possibly infected again if they had covid already.

This is the world in which we live right now.  Some want to isolate until the all clear is given, some want life as normal and act that way, and some want something in the middle.  Taking what they think are relative small risks and pay that price to live life.  Despite what others think, it is their lives to live.  

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2 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

This is the world in which we live right now.  Some want to isolate until the all clear is given, some want life as normal and act that way, and some want something in the middle.  Taking what they think are relative small risks and pay that price to live life.  Despite what others think, it is their lives to live.  

I agree with you up to a certain point.  That point ends  when they put someone else at risk due to their "beliefs" and behaviors.  

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Just now, pe4all said:

I agree with you up to a certain point.  That point ends  when they put someone else at risk due to their "beliefs" and behaviors.  

I get it.  Sometimes hard to determine that point, but agree.  It will probably get way more convoluted in the next couple months...😣 

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