Covid-19 Vaccinations To Be Required?

[Paulchili]

2 hours ago, ORV said:

Dan, I think you might have misunderstood Paul's abbreviation. I think he was using NH for Nursing Home, not New Hampshire. NH hasn't reported any of their data on vaccinations yet. 

Correct

[njhorseman]

Here in warm, beautiful NJ (that's a joke folks...it's cold and gray) my wife and I just got our vaccination appointments...for April 17, three months away...and that was by signing up for a vaccination site 45 minutes away in another county !!!

 

Hopefully we'll get vaccinated before that, but 10 months into the pandemic another three months of staying safely at home with just the occasional trip to the supermarket or drug store  doesn't seem so horrible.

Edited January 17, 2021 by njhorseman

[1985rz1]

I have my first dose appointment on February 6 and the second on March 6.  We're waiting for my spouse to be able to register.  She is not yet 75, and by the time the 65 to 75 group was included in 1 B priority, the local sites were not accepting more applications.  She is now on a wait list to be notified when applications are opened again.

Edited January 17, 2021 by 1985rz1

[the more ports the better]

I participated in the Pfizer study and had the vaccines last summer.  At that point we were encouraged to expose ourselves as much as possible.  When I asked, they said that earlier studies showed the vaccine was over 90% effective.  They said they were anticipating approvals in late fall hoping to reach herd immunity sometime in the summer.  Everything they communicated to us thus far has been spot on.

 

Once we reach herd immunity, the effectiveness of the vaccine is irrelevant as long as the effectiveness is over the herd immunity threshold.  The small amount of people who are not healthy enough to take the vaccine will not need it as long as they do not travel to a part of the world where the virus is prevalent.

 

I haven’t seen many people saying that they are going to avoid travel, wear face masks, social distance and change their daily living habits because they are worried about contracting small pox or measles.  Both of those vaccines are appx 95% effective, same as Covid, along with a host of other vaccines and we have reached herd immunity.
 

Once herd immunity is reached, it doesn’t matter if you are one of the 5% in which the vaccine is not effective because the virus naturally dies out.  Their will be no mechanism to catch the virus.  That is the entire purpose of creating a vaccine, to eradicate a disease.  The important thing is to get as many people as possible to take the vaccine to reach herd immunity.  Just like small pox, measles, diphtheria...... it will be eradicated and not present in our population.

 

I volunteered for the Pfizer Covid study because I felt that a vaccine was so important.  We, along with many other first world counties, closed our economies.  As of today there 23.9 million confirmed cases of Covid in the US with 397,000 deaths, a less than 2% death rate.  The UN’s world food program is anticipating 137 million people will starve this year with much of that being a result of our first world shut downs.

 

I hope everyone gets vaccinated and gets back to sailing.  When we do, we need to keep in mind that many of the workers are feeding extended families with the tips we give them.  We in the US can afford an abundance of caution, they cannot.  While we are locked in our cozy houses and shopping online, many families are starving to death and the people that take care of us on the ships have a lot of ground to make up.  Let’s all agree to be extra generous in any way we can, both now and certainly with the staff when we all start sailing again.

[clo]

5 minutes ago, the more ports the better said:

I hope everyone gets vaccinated

That "herd immunity" argument doesn't take into account those probably millions who won't take the shot.

[susiesan]

Curious: knowing that amongst the many people who are refusing the vaccine are some health care workers, will you be asking your doctor if he/she and staff have been vaccinated before you go see them? My local hospital and doctor office is allowing the employees to opt out. 

 

If the airline you fly on does not make their employees get vaccinated will you fly? I know AA is not requiring the vaccine of their flight attendants and pilots.

 

 Will this be the new question before you enter a business, show me proof of vaccination, and will you go elsewhere if they have not been?  Are all these people people  idiots?

[Daniel A]

There is a lot of concern about the anti vaxxers undermining the achievement of herd immunity.  If the people who aren't vaccinated get sick and survive the illness then they too will have a certain level of immunity.  (Maybe not as much as if they had taken the vaccine...)  Maybe that way the anti vaxxers will contribute to achieving herd immunity.

 

I find it interesting to see there are people who are waiting on getting the vaccine in order to see if there are any long term reactions in other people.  In the mean time there are definitely many documented cases of long term consequences to getting the disease.  If that's the risk people want to take, that's fine by me.  It's all a matter of free choice.

[Daniel A]

12 hours ago, susiesan said:

Curious: knowing that amongst the many people who are refusing the vaccine are some health care workers, will you be asking your doctor if he/she and staff have been vaccinated before you go see them? My local hospital and doctor office is allowing the employees to opt out. 

I have a friend who is in the hospital for a non-Covid condition.  One of his nurses refused the vaccine.  She has just tested positive and now my friend needs to stay in isolation in the hospital for 14 days and is worried that he will now develop the disease with his underlying serious condition.  What is that they say..."First, do no harm..."

[susiesan]

53 minutes ago, Daniel A said:

I have a friend who is in the hospital for a non-Covid condition.  One of his nurses refused the vaccine.  She has just tested positive and now my friend needs to stay in isolation in the hospital for 14 days and is worried that he will now develop the disease with his underlying serious condition.  What is that they say..."First, do no harm..."

If this happened your friend needs to sue the hospital for negligence. It is unacceptable to allow doctors and nurses who refuse the vaccine to see patients. Just as some doctors are going to "fire" their unvaccinated patients, we patients need to "fire" our unvaccinated doctors.

[pinotlover]

A close friend is the HR VP for our local regional hospital and many of the outlying ones. All their doctors and other employees have now received their vaccinations. Those that didn’t are no long associated with the hospitals. They are now beginning the hiring process for new employees in several areas. 
 

The system moved quickly. Some of those dismissed former employees are just coming to grasp with the consequences of their unemployed, and probably unemployable, status.

[deadzone1003]

22 hours ago, clo said:

That "herd immunity" argument doesn't take into account those probably millions who won't take the shot.

It does.  If we reach herd immunity (assume 70%) in the United States (population: 330 million roughly), the USA can have 99,000,000 of people (citizens, non-citizens, and illegals) unvaccinated theoretically.  We have roughly 10 to 20 percent of our population so far who are vaccinated or who have had the disease and have some kind of immunity.  As more people gets vaccinated, the disease will find itself more difficult to spread.  Herd immunity doesn't magically turn on like a light switch.  It will build itself up very slowly.  In some communities with high vaccination rates they will reach herd immunity first.  Even if they say the USA has cross the threshold of herd immunity, i.e. we vaccinated 70% of our population, compliance could vary greatly throughout the country.  We may have a vaccination rate of 85% in our urban area, but if you drive up to the mountains, it may be only 50%.  Something to think about. 

[Paulchili]

Saga cruise line UK reported yesterday that it will require all passengers to be fully vaccinated 14 days before boarding. Cruises will resume in May

[Daniel A]

1 hour ago, Paulchili said:

Saga cruise line UK reported yesterday that it will require all passengers to be fully vaccinated 14 days before boarding. Cruises will resume in May

Well now, there's a shocker... That's the first factual post on the thread pertaining to the original topic.  Thanks for the post.

Edited January 22, 2021 by Daniel A

[Hlitner]

I have posted before and will post again.  Herd Immunity is a complete myth.  It will not happen with COVID and has never happened with any virus.  It would theoretically be possible if there was a vaccine that gave very long immunity (lifetime would be best) and we could somehow get 75-80% of the folks in the entire world vaccinated.  But lets knock off the bull and look at facts.   We are looking at vaccines that will likely need to be boosted (with more shots) within 1-2 years (this has yet to be determined).  Those of us who live in places like the USA, Canada, Australia, etc, all live in countries where it is very difficult to get more then 50% of the population vaccinated when they only need a single annual shot.  Getting 50% vaccinated when they need two shots will be very difficult,  Getting 70% vaccinated would require a government mandate enforced by gun point!  There are simply too many folks with an anti-vax attitude.   Even if we could achieve a miraculous 80% vaccination rate in the world (with Billions of people) they would all need to get boosters at some point in the future (likely 1-2 years) and that will simply not happen.

 

For those that think I am speaking with a "forked tongue" please feel free to challenge what I say with facts.....not unsubstantiated baloney.   We actually have a long history of vaccinations (more then 100 years) and nothing close to herd immunity has been achieved...even with long lasting vaccines like the MMR (which has an efficacy rate similar to the best COVID vaccines).

 

Hank

[DeanoNorthPerth]

Thank you Hank. I've been saying for months that the emphasis on a vaccine is misplaced. We should be focusing on getting treatments that will cure or at least minimise the effects. Covid is with us for some time.

[KirkNC]

Funny as I just watched an actual expert on this topic, Dr Fauci explain how he hoped we achieved herd immunity by this fall. 

[clo]

5 hours ago, KirkNC said:

Funny as I just watched an actual expert on this topic, Dr Fauci explain how he hoped we achieved herd immunity by this fall. 

Yep.

 

https://www.bostonherald.com/2021/01/21/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-still-works-against-variant-could-get-herd-immunity-by-fall/

[deadzone1003]

I think people may have a varying idea of what herd immunity is all about.  All it is when more people gets vaccinated or they get sick, recovers, and gain some kind of immunity, the disease has a more difficulty passing the disease from 1 person to another.  Currently, this virus's disease transmission factor (R0) of 2.4, meaning anyone who gets the disease will on average pass it on to 2.4 people.  As more people gets vaccinated (or get sick and recovers) that R0 factor starts lowering because the disease has greater difficulty being transmitted - it you are sick, it is not as easy to pass it on to a vaccinated person.  You like this factor to reach 0 eventually, but it is unlikely.  I wouldn't even hazard a guess what the R0 should be in order to say we are at herd immunity.  More importantly, if the vaccines is such that it reduces the severity of the disease, then the thought of dying or being crippled for the rest of the life (long-haulers) fades away and we may have something akin to the seasonal flu, you get sick, it is nasty, but you recover.  

[pinotlover]

Deadzone;

 

If you Google the Swiss study where they did very extensive virus tracing, they found that 60% of the cases came from 10% of the infected population. A large percentage of positive cases spread the disease to no one, not even to those with in the same household. The reason some get it while others didn’t isn’t known, but they look for identifying traits. There was no RO results of 2.4 in their study. In that they did a much more intensive and detailed job of actual tracing than US teams have done, I give their numbers more credence.

[clo]

15 minutes ago, deadzone1003 said:

I wouldn't even hazard a guess what the R0 should be in order to say we are at herd immunity. 

Why don't we all listen to Dr. Fauci. With 45 years experience he might be a tad better qualified to make those pronouncements.

[njhorseman]

12 hours ago, Hlitner said:

I have posted before and will post again.  Herd Immunity is a complete myth.  It will not happen with COVID and has never happened with any virus.  It would theoretically be possible if there was a vaccine that gave very long immunity (lifetime would be best) and we could somehow get 75-80% of the folks in the entire world vaccinated.  But lets knock off the bull and look at facts.   We are looking at vaccines that will likely need to be boosted (with more shots) within 1-2 years (this has yet to be determined).  Those of us who live in places like the USA, Canada, Australia, etc, all live in countries where it is very difficult to get more then 50% of the population vaccinated when they only need a single annual shot.  Getting 50% vaccinated when they need two shots will be very difficult,  Getting 70% vaccinated would require a government mandate enforced by gun point!  There are simply too many folks with an anti-vax attitude.   Even if we could achieve a miraculous 80% vaccination rate in the world (with Billions of people) they would all need to get boosters at some point in the future (likely 1-2 years) and that will simply not happen.

 

For those that think I am speaking with a "forked tongue" please feel free to challenge what I say with facts.....not unsubstantiated baloney.   We actually have a long history of vaccinations (more then 100 years) and nothing close to herd immunity has been achieved...even with long lasting vaccines like the MMR (which has an efficacy rate similar to the best COVID vaccines).

 

Hank

You've posted this before so you've been wrong before, and you're wrong again.

 

First, smallpox is caused by a virus. Not only was "herd immunity"  achieved, the disease was eradicated.(In quotes because I dislike the term. We're not a herd of cattle. Community immunity is better.)  There have been no naturally occurring cases since 1977, and in the US since1949. https://www.cdc.gov/smallpox/about/index.html#:~:text=Before smallpox was eradicated%2C it,a distinctive%2C progressive skin rash.

 

Second, despite what you say, herd immunity has been achieved through vaccination in childhood diseases such as measles, mumps, polio and chickenpox. This is where it's really helpful to use the term community immunity, because outbreaks of these diseases still occur in communities that have prevented their children from being vaccinated.

 

Third, I don't think you understand the mathematics of herd immunity, which is why I think you make the mistake I've pointed out in my second paragraph above. It's not eradication...no one says it is, and you don't need 100% of the population to be vaccinated or to have immunity from acquiring the disease itself. This article from Johns Hopkins School of Public Health keeps the math and explanation very simple so the average person should be able to understand it.

https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/achieving-herd-immunity-with-covid19.html

 

I suspect the two biggest obstacles to achieving herd immunity to COVID-19 will be getting a high enough percentage of the population vaccinated ( that's obvious and you mention it) and potentially mutation of the virus, which as you note may require regular revaccinations as is the case with influenza.

 

Edit: As noted above, Dr. Fauci thinks that herd immunity can be achieved .

Edited January 22, 2021 by njhorseman

[Hlitner]

2 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

You've posted this before so you've been wrong before, and you're wrong again.

 

First, smallpox is caused by a virus. Not only was "herd immunity"  achieved, the disease was eradicated.(In quotes because I dislike the term. We're not a herd of cattle. Community immunity is better.)  There have been no naturally occurring cases since 1977, and in the US since1949. https://www.cdc.gov/smallpox/about/index.html#:~:text=Before smallpox was eradicated%2C it,a distinctive%2C progressive skin rash.

 

Second, despite what you say, herd immunity has been achieved through vaccination in childhood diseases such as measles, mumps, polio and chickenpox. This is where it's really helpful to use the term community immunity, because outbreaks of these diseases still occur in communities that have prevented their children from being vaccinated.

 

Third, I don't think you understand the mathematics of herd immunity, which is why I think you make the mistake I've pointed out in my second paragraph above. It's not eradication...no one says it is, and you don't need 100% of the population to be vaccinated or to have immunity from acquiring the disease itself. This article from Johns Hopkins School of Public Health keeps the math and explanation very simple so the average person should be able to understand it.

https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/achieving-herd-immunity-with-covid19.html

 

I suspect the two biggest obstacles to achieving herd immunity to COVID-19 will be getting a high enough percentage of the population vaccinated ( that's obvious and you mention it) and potentially mutation of the virus, which as you note may require regular revaccinations as is the case with influenza.

At the risk of getting into a online debate, I have pointed out (in many posts) the eradication of Smallpox.  Within the healthcare community it has been a debate whether that had anything to do with herd immunity or, as happens with some viruses, the virus simply disappeared from the world due to more then 1000 years of mutation.   But for arguments sake let us accept that perhaps smallpox is an example of herd immunity.  Then also consider it took a very long time (from 1796 when the vaccine was first developed until the 1960s) and the smallpox vaccine gives one a relatively long period of immunity (with a single vaccination).  

 

But when folks talk about vaccines as the road to herd immunity they completely ignore the biggest problem with any vaccine which is getting folks around the world to voluntarily get vaccinated.  Consider that in most first world countries where folks are well educated there is seldom more then a 50% participation in vaccines unless it is forced...and even then the participation rate is seldom above 60%.    Unfortunately, some of the very politicians that now champion vaccinations were the same folks that just a few months ago were warning their constituents that any vaccine developed by Trump must be questioned.  Of course that was not true (President Trump did not go into a lab and develop any vaccine) but it gave more ammunition to the anti-vax community which is now in full swing.  We even have some family members (who live in New York State) who are now hesitant to get vaccinated because of what they have "heard" from their own Governor and their friends.  These ladies are seniors (at high risk from COVID) and well educated (multiple advanced degrees).  There are also polls (and related reports) of a lot of vaccine resistance among the Black community....against supported by Statements from politicians and leaders who kept equating any vaccine with "Trump."   With these anti-vaxers and conspiracy folks...once you let the cat out of the bag you soon get an awful lot of cats.

 

To DW and I vaccines are a no-brainer.  Sign me up at the first opportunity (heaven knows when that will be since politicians want to micro manage any vaccination program) for any of the approved vaccines.  But I do not delude myself that COVID will be eliminated from our society in my lifetime.  It "ain't" going to happen.  Speaking of that...it is interesting to go back to CC posts in earlier 2020 through the Fall and see how wrong folks can be when it comes to COVID.  Many had cruising returning to normal by last Fall.  Some thought that cruise lines would quickly comply with the CDC Guidelines and be operating by Jan or Feb!  My assumption is that most of those folks still have not read the full text of the CDC Guidelines which, I have pointed out, seem to be designed to make compliance so onerous that it may never happen.  I do think that the CDC will need to modify their Guidelines if cruising (in the USA) is to resume in the near future.

 

Hank

 

 

 

 

[Daniel A]

 I just found this on another forum:  

 

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/saga-cruises-vaccine/index.html

 

According to CNN, SAGA cruises will be requiring all PAX to be vaccinated at least 14 days prior to boarding one of their ships.  The article goes further to state: "Saga confirmed to CNN Travel that it will still instigate other safety measures on board its sailings, including reduced capacity, pre-departure Covid-19 testing, social distancing, increasing cabin air flow and improving on-board medical facilities."  There was no mention of a continuing need to wear masks onboard. 

[KirkNC]

6 hours ago, Hlitner said:

At the risk of getting into a online debate, I have pointed out (in many posts) the eradication of Smallpox.  Within the healthcare community it has been a debate whether that had anything to do with herd immunity or, as happens with some viruses, the virus simply disappeared from the world due to more then 1000 years of mutation.   But for arguments sake let us accept that perhaps smallpox is an example of herd immunity.  Then also consider it took a very long time (from 1796 when the vaccine was first developed until the 1960s) and the smallpox vaccine gives one a relatively long period of immunity (with a single vaccination).  

 

But when folks talk about vaccines as the road to herd immunity they completely ignore the biggest problem with any vaccine which is getting folks around the world to voluntarily get vaccinated.  Consider that in most first world countries where folks are well educated there is seldom more then a 50% participation in vaccines unless it is forced...and even then the participation rate is seldom above 60%.    Unfortunately, some of the very politicians that now champion vaccinations were the same folks that just a few months ago were warning their constituents that any vaccine developed by Trump must be questioned.  Of course that was not true (President Trump did not go into a lab and develop any vaccine) but it gave more ammunition to the anti-vax community which is now in full swing.  We even have some family members (who live in New York State) who are now hesitant to get vaccinated because of what they have "heard" from their own Governor and their friends.  These ladies are seniors (at high risk from COVID) and well educated (multiple advanced degrees).  There are also polls (and related reports) of a lot of vaccine resistance among the Black community....against supported by Statements from politicians and leaders who kept equating any vaccine with "Trump."   With these anti-vaxers and conspiracy folks...once you let the cat out of the bag you soon get an awful lot of cats.

 

To DW and I vaccines are a no-brainer.  Sign me up at the first opportunity (heaven knows when that will be since politicians want to micro manage any vaccination program) for any of the approved vaccines.  But I do not delude myself that COVID will be eliminated from our society in my lifetime.  It "ain't" going to happen.  Speaking of that...it is interesting to go back to CC posts in earlier 2020 through the Fall and see how wrong folks can be when it comes to COVID.  Many had cruising returning to normal by last Fall.  Some thought that cruise lines would quickly comply with the CDC Guidelines and be operating by Jan or Feb!  My assumption is that most of those folks still have not read the full text of the CDC Guidelines which, I have pointed out, seem to be designed to make compliance so onerous that it may never happen.  I do think that the CDC will need to modify their Guidelines if cruising (in the USA) is to resume in the near future.

 

Hank

 

 

 

 

Not going to argue the medical points, let the medical folks figure out and I will do what they think is best.  On your CDC point, I agree but I think that change could be one sentence:

 

“These rules do not apply to cruises with 100% of the crew and passengers vaccinated.”

[njhorseman]

7 hours ago, Hlitner said:

At the risk of getting into a online debate, I have pointed out (in many posts) the eradication of Smallpox.  Within the healthcare community it has been a debate whether that had anything to do with herd immunity or, as happens with some viruses, the virus simply disappeared from the world due to more then 1000 years of mutation.   But for arguments sake let us accept that perhaps smallpox is an example of herd immunity.  Then also consider it took a very long time (from 1796 when the vaccine was first developed until the 1960s) and the smallpox vaccine gives one a relatively long period of immunity (with a single vaccination).  

 According to the CDC there's no question that the eradication of smallpox was the result of a concerted vaccination effort undertaken in the mid 20th century, not 1000 years of mutation. Note the sentence I've highlighted below, stating that smallpox was still widespread in 1966 in South America, Africa and Asia:

 

https://www.cdc.gov/smallpox/history/history.html

 

"Global Smallpox Eradication Program

In 1959, the World Health Organization (WHO) initiated a plan to rid the world of smallpox. Unfortunately, this global eradication campaign suffered from lack of funds, personnel, and commitment from countries, as well as a shortage of vaccine donations. Despite their best efforts, smallpox was still widespread in 1966, causing regular outbreaks in multiple countries across South America, Africa, and Asia.

The Intensified Eradication Program began in 1967 with a promise of renewed efforts. This time, laboratories in many countries where smallpox occurred regularly (endemic countries) were able to produce more, higher quality freeze-dried vaccine. A number of other factors also played an important role in the success of the intensified efforts, including the development of the bifurcated needle, establishment of a surveillance system to detect and investigate cases, and mass vaccination campaigns, to name a few.

By the time the Intensified Eradication Program began in 1967, smallpox had already been eliminated in North America (1952) and Europe (1953), leaving South America, Asia, and Africa (smallpox was never widespread in Australia). The Program made steady progress toward ridding the world of this disease, and by 1971 smallpox was eradicated from South America, followed by Asia (1975), and finally Africa (1977)."