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WILL PRICES EVER COME DOWN?


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18 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Will prices ever come down?

Ask this question again about a year after cruise lines resume more normal operations and they have a huge amount of excess cabin capacity and are competing with each other for a much more limited passenger base.  This will occur after the refund back log and L&S is used up.  The market for cruising other than for us fanatics has taken a major black-eye and it will take years to recover to pre-pandemic levels if ever.  Yes if you wait just a bit and don't play the game right now you will be rewarded with much lower prices.  You can put that in the bank!

 

I agree and when all is said and done, I hope they investigate the CDC. They have taken a hard line on cruising that they haven't with other forms of transportation. The difference with cruising of course is we are all together on the same ship for 3-14+ days. There is a positive to that however as containing an outbreak can be easier vs other modes of transportation and venues etc.

 

You can't tell me a cruise ship is any worse than the videos and pictures I see large numbers of people gathering closely outside maskless to view holiday displays or a RC car race indoors where a majority of the people standing next to each other maskless is a larger problem than cruising. Those are two small examples of what are probably uncountable examples across the country/world.  Somewhere an antil cruising agenda appeared. Of course cruise lines need do things better and make changes moving forward, I just don't feel they needed to be vilified the way they were and still are. 

Edited by cgolf1
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15 minutes ago, cgolf1 said:

 

I agree and when all is said and done, I hope they investigate the CDC. They have taken a hard line on cruising that they haven't with other forms of transportation. The difference with cruising of course is we are all together on the same ship for 3-14+ days. There is a positive to that however as containing an outbreak can be easier vs other modes of transportation and venues etc.

 

You can't tell me a cruise ship is any worse than the videos and pictures I see large numbers of people gathering closely outside maskless to view holiday displays or a RC car race indoors where a majority of the people standing next to each other maskless is a larger problem than cruising. Those are two small examples of what are probably uncountable examples across the country/world.  Somewhere an antil cruising agenda appeared. Of course cruise lines need do things better and make changes moving forward, I just don't feel they needed to be vilified the way they were and still are. 

I beg to differ.

 

Just because the scenarios you describe are very bad and allowed, doesn't mean that cruising which is also very bad should be allowed. Two wrongs don't make a right.

 

Personally, I will not cruise until it is as safe as it was before Covid.

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13 minutes ago, cantstopingcruising said:

I beg to differ.

 

Just because the scenarios you describe are very bad and allowed, doesn't mean that cruising which is also very bad should be allowed. Two wrongs don't make a right.

 

Personally, I will not cruise until it is as safe as it was before Covid.

 

So do you fly because they tell you its safe despite a person with Covid dying on a flight over the weekend due to poor screening? I didn't say they should be cruising, I just said that cruising has been singled out by the CDC.

 

I personally believe that flying should have been limited to only essential travel as well and still be limited to this day. People are packed on a plane way closer and all the filtration in the world can't fix getting stuck in the seat next to a person who is sick. Honestly there probably is a way to cruise safely now, but it wouldn't be very profitable unless the rates doubled to make up for the lower occupancy.

 

When they start cruising again you need to make that decision for yourself when you feel safe. For our late 2021 cruise I could see us driving down there over concerns with the flight and then get on the cruise ship and be fine with it. Hope it is all irrelevant with the vaccines coming online now though.

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I had 2 trips canceled this year. A celebrity 12 night Caribbean, with multiple perks, and a 2 week land/river cruise with Viking. I took the refund rather than FCC for both after seeing what the cost would be for the same celebrity cruise in 2021 minus the perks. Knowing all the FCC that would be outstanding, I figured prices would stay up for a while.

 I remain quite content to wait until deals become available again and safe sailing protocols prove successful before jumping back onboard.

I canceled my WDW annual pass and took the refund for similar reasons, preferring to wait until the experience returns to something more closely resembling normal. 

Travel, in general, will probably not return to prepandemic routines for quite some time. Every individual will have to decide when to resume in accordance with their own comfort level.

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8 hours ago, cgolf1 said:

 

I am guessing you don't consider Disney a main cruise line, but wow the greed there is ridiculous, Disney = greed. They price there cruises like a luxury brand and give you an RCCL level experience. Coming over to Celebrity after numerous substantial price increases and lowering the onboard product on Disney, it was nice to have better service, fuller experience, and a lower price even on the Edge. So it could be a lot worse than it is. 

 

I do understand prices going up now, but I think that will be short term when lines find people won't pay it post pandemic for many reasons, like decreased income and concerns about cruising in general topping the list. They do need to somehow cover their losses for however long they don't sale. It is surprising that more lines haven't gone under.

Disney is kind of a specialty product. They've only got a couple of ships and charge a butt ton for their name and some character meet and greets. We tried them once and found there to be too many free range children in the dining room. Our child had been cruising since he was 5 months old so he knew how to behave in a dining room.

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6 hours ago, cantstopingcruising said:

I beg to differ.

 

Just because the scenarios you describe are very bad and allowed, doesn't mean that cruising which is also very bad should be allowed. Two wrongs don't make a right.

 

Personally, I will not cruise until it is as safe as it was before Covid.

The experts say that this virus will likely be with us for years to come.  So IMHO it will never be quite as safe as it was before Covid - if you are waiting for that you are probably done with cruising.  For me, I will settle for reasonably safe (and protected 95% or so by the vaccine) with good protocols for handling the virus should it get onboard.  

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1 hour ago, fluffybunny22 said:

Disney is kind of a specialty product. They've only got a couple of ships and charge a butt ton for their name and some character meet and greets. We tried them once and found there to be too many free range children in the dining room. Our child had been cruising since he was 5 months old so he knew how to behave in a dining room.

 We tried them once and found there to be too many free range children in the dining room.  Just like the "adults" on Carnival. 🤣

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19 minutes ago, LGW59 said:

 We tried them once and found there to be too many free range children in the dining room.  Just like the "adults" on Carnival. 🤣

We also tried Carnival once and didn't like it because of the party atmosphere and the food was trash. Dessert was Oreos on a plate and mousse was actually jello. We were very sophisticated 20 somethings. My husband usually compares cruising to chain restaurants and Carnival is the Applebee's of the bunch. We are more like Ruth's Chris people.

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2 minutes ago, fluffybunny22 said:

We also tried Carnival once and didn't like it because of the party atmosphere and the food was trash. Dessert was Oreos on a plate and mousse was actually jello. We were very sophisticated 20 somethings. My husband usually compares cruising to chain restaurants and Carnival is the Applebee's of the bunch. We are more like Ruth's Chris people.

Agreed.  I love a good time but on Carnival, I felt as if I were on the mid-way at a pop-up local carnival.

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6 hours ago, phoenix_dream said:

The experts say that this virus will likely be with us for years to come.  So IMHO it will never be quite as safe as it was before Covid - if you are waiting for that you are probably done with cruising.  For me, I will settle for reasonably safe (and protected 95% or so by the vaccine) with good protocols for handling the virus should it get onboard.  

I believe you are correct.  There has been a vaccine for TB and effective treatments for a while.  And in 2019, 10 million people were infected, and 1 million people died from TB.  No, I am not comparing TB to COVID, I am just expressing that it takes a long time to vaccinate the world’s population.

 

 

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22 hours ago, cgolf1 said:

 

So do you fly because they tell you its safe despite a person with Covid dying on a flight over the weekend due to poor screening? I didn't say they should be cruising, I just said that cruising has been singled out by the CDC.

 

I personally believe that flying should have been limited to only essential travel as well and still be limited to this day. People are packed on a plane way closer and all the filtration in the world can't fix getting stuck in the seat next to a person who is sick. Honestly there probably is a way to cruise safely now, but it wouldn't be very profitable unless the rates doubled to make up for the lower occupancy.

 

When they start cruising again you need to make that decision for yourself when you feel safe. For our late 2021 cruise I could see us driving down there over concerns with the flight and then get on the cruise ship and be fine with it. Hope it is all irrelevant with the vaccines coming online now though.

 

Actually, they do say that flying is safe, even if someone on the plane has covid. And yes, I have flown for pleasure at this point and don't have a problem with doing it again.

 

Study: Risk Of Covid-19 Transmission On Planes ‘Virtually Nonexistent’ For Mask-Wearers (forbes.com)

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10 hours ago, jagoffee said:

I believe you are correct.  There has been a vaccine for TB and effective treatments for a while.  And in 2019, 10 million people were infected, and 1 million people died from TB.  No, I am not comparing TB to COVID, I am just expressing that it takes a long time to vaccinate the world’s population.

 

 

The example I use to illustrate that point: A smallpox vaccine was developed in 1796 by Edward Jenner. The World Health Organization declared smallpox eradicated in 1980. Global vaccination is a lengthy process.

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51 minutes ago, ExArkie said:

The example I use to illustrate that point: A smallpox vaccine was developed in 1796 by Edward Jenner. The World Health Organization declared smallpox eradicated in 1980. Global vaccination is a lengthy process.

Although at face value your smallpox example is factual- do you really want to correlate what was known and achieved in 1796 or even 1980 with what can be done and achieved with the knowledge and technology of today?  I agree that it will take a few years - but not decades- to vaccinate the world's population with Covid vaccines as more become available.  The good news is that there are organizations and a collaborative willingness and missions to do this like WHO COVAX and others.

https://www.who.int/initiatives/act-accelerator/covax

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3 hours ago, TeeRick said:

Although at face value your smallpox example is factual- do you really want to correlate what was known and achieved in 1796 or even 1980 with what can be done and achieved with the knowledge and technology of today?  I agree that it will take a few years - but not decades- to vaccinate the world's population with Covid vaccines as more become available.  The good news is that there are organizations and a collaborative willingness and missions to do this like WHO COVAX and others.

https://www.who.int/initiatives/act-accelerator/covax

 

yeah, now it's more or less impossible to get the world to cooperate and eradicate a virus (eg polio)

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6 hours ago, TeeRick said:

Although at face value your smallpox example is factual- do you really want to correlate what was known and achieved in 1796 or even 1980 with what can be done and achieved with the knowledge and technology of today?  I agree that it will take a few years - but not decades- to vaccinate the world's population with Covid vaccines as more become available.  The good news is that there are organizations and a collaborative willingness and missions to do this like WHO COVAX and others.

https://www.who.int/initiatives/act-accelerator/covax

TB is a must more recent example.  We do not hear much about TB in the US, because it is very much under control.  But in the world it is still remains a major concern that killed  more than 1 Million people world wide as recently as 2019.

 

Key facts. A total of 1.4 million people died from TB in 2019 (including 208 000 people with HIV). Worldwide, TB is one of the top 10 causes of death and the leading cause from a single infectious agent (above HIV/AIDS). In 2019, an estimated 10 millionpeople fell ill with tuberculosis(TB) worldwide.”

 

 

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5 minutes ago, jagoffee said:

TB is a must more recent example.  We do not hear much about TB in the US, because it is very much under control.  But in the world it is still remains a major concern that killed  more than 1 Million people world wide as recently as 2019.

 

Key facts. A total of 1.4 million people died from TB in 2019 (including 208 000 people with HIV). Worldwide, TB is one of the top 10 causes of death and the leading cause from a single infectious agent (above HIV/AIDS). In 2019, an estimated 10 millionpeople fell ill with tuberculosis(TB) worldwide.”

 

 

This post is about cruise prices, just sayin...  🙂

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As for the original question, I do think prices will come down when occupancy rates are allowed to be back to normal and May 4 is past so FCCs will be used.  I think summer & fall 2022   bookings soften.  

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I am optimistic that prices will soften as we go forward.  At least, I hope they are because at these levels there simply is no way we will push the booking button.  And we hope to sail with =X= more than the 2 we currently have booked.

 

We booked 5 cruises last week, all with NCL after making numerous comparisons.  Unfortunately, there is no way I can justify a difference in price like this:

=X= Reflection, 15 day crossing, CAT 1A: $7111.00

NCL Dawn, 17 day crossing, CAT BA: $4441.00

The Celebrity sailing includes grats, so a + (value ~$450.00) but the NCL sailing includes 5 Specialty dining reservations (+ our 2, w/wine for Platinum +).  

NCL itinerary, with 2 extra days and better ports (for us) a +

 

Had the =X= pricing been, say, $5500 or so we would have paid the premium.   At $2700+ more?  No way.  This is why I hope the prices moderate.  A good bit.

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40 minutes ago, LGW59 said:

This post is about cruise prices, just sayin...  🙂

Great point.  Guilty as charged!.  
I have been using the notification system and I sometimes respond to a quote without realizing which thread I am on.  I need to be more careful going forward and not further contribute to the subject drift.  It is really embarrassing when I get my cruise lines confused.


I promise that I will focus.

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13 minutes ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

Cruising isn't a form of transportation.

The action of transporting someone or something or the process of being transported. 

 

Lipstick on a pig still means it is a pig.

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Many appear to be ignoring the huge financial hole the cruise lines have created.  Estimates are currently $20BILLION in added debt worldwide.  Does not include estimates for 2021 which will unlikely see cruising resuming in any sense of normality until the Summer or Fall.  Also doesn't include "surprises" like the mutation recently discovered in the UK and which is, again, restricting the movement of people into and across Europe.

 

Seriously doubt prices will decrease over time.  Just too much debt to repay, too many new ships someone on line that rushes lines don't need, and not a real expanding market for "used" cruise ships.  It will be a long time, maybe 4-6 years, before debts are paid down.  Additionally, insurance rates will be increasing because of COVID-19, port charges will also increase, ship operations costs will increase, etc, etc.  

 

The best deals may be those currently being offered - if they seem reasonable to you.  We have booked a Transatlantic for Spring 2022 on Sky Princess, compatible ship (a little larger) to a Solstice class and a good ship for TAs.  Interesting experience in that Princess was not showing the cabin(s) (suite) we wanted on their website suggesting they were "sold out."  Calling though a TA proved less than half of the cabin class was sold.  Not much more than the same cabin TA we had booked on Enchanted princess (same class) for Oct/Nov 20, now cancelled.  

 

At some point I can even envision a reckoning in cruise ship inventories.  Cruise lines will come to realize that the behemoths are maybe not the best design for social distancing, cleaning, and dining under the proposed CLIA guidance.  Ports will not want 5-7,000 people coming ashore at the same time off the same ship.  People may not want to pay premium prices for "mass market" ships.  Price add ons will be come standard (inclusive) as Celebrity and others are pushing.  Obfuscates what the "real" price is...

 

Cruise industry will survive.  It will change to meet the new challenges.  It will be more expensive for the same product.

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