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WILL PRICES EVER COME DOWN?


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41 minutes ago, LGW59 said:

The action of transporting someone or something or the process of being transported. 

 

Lipstick on a pig still means it is a pig.

It used to be transportation.  With my family I sailed the North Atlantic starting in 1949!  Essentially it was the only way to travel between continents.  First TA flight was in a DC-7 Amsterdam-Houston: 17 hours!  Two years ago we did LAX-SYD non-stop in 16 hours.  Starting about 1960 ocean liners became passe and air travel became the norm across the Pond.  Ocean liners were "converted" to cruise ships for romanticized vacations.  We no longer look to travel via ship - just too slow. Yes, we do also take one-way Transatlantics and fly the other way, but that is still in the Pleasure category.

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14 hours ago, jagoffee said:

TB is a must more recent example.  We do not hear much about TB in the US, because it is very much under control.  But in the world it is still remains a major concern that killed  more than 1 Million people world wide as recently as 2019.

 

Key facts. A total of 1.4 million people died from TB in 2019 (including 208 000 people with HIV). Worldwide, TB is one of the top 10 causes of death and the leading cause from a single infectious agent (above HIV/AIDS). In 2019, an estimated 10 millionpeople fell ill with tuberculosis(TB) worldwide.”

 

 

Agree.  TB is one of the worst infectious diseases worldwide.  But the BCG vaccine is not a very highly effective vaccine overall.  Maybe 70% to prevent severe cases of bacterial (MTB) meningitis and much less effective in stopping viral transmission and respiratory disease in adults.  Because TB is not a major cause of disease in "first world" countries the efforts to produce a more effective TB vaccine have been under-funded for decades.  Maybe now the use of mRNA vaccine technology will be applied to TB vaccines.  

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On 12/20/2020 at 7:23 PM, Covepointcruiser said:

As for cruise pricing, Bunnyette has not surprisingly found she could book a Carnival cruise to Canada for less than Celebrity.   Carnival is a budget line so that’s not surprising.   I personally would not enjoy Carnival but lots of folks do.

Nope it’s a cruise to Iceland, Ireland, Scotland & Wales.  I’ve done their European cruises before much different from the Caribbean crowd!!   I’m cruising for the ports on this one, I still prefer celebrity for Caribbean & Bermuda 

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17 minutes ago, bunnyette said:

Nope it’s a cruise to Iceland, Ireland, Scotland & Wales.  I’ve done their European cruises before much different from the Caribbean crowd!!   I’m cruising for the ports on this one, I still prefer celebrity for Caribbean & Bermuda 

I think a lot of people don't get the fact that much of the "party hardy" atmosphere does not migrate to the European, crossings and, especially longer sailings. 

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On 12/21/2020 at 9:55 AM, TeeRick said:

Will prices ever come down?

Ask this question again about a year after cruise lines resume more normal operations and they have a huge amount of excess cabin capacity and are competing with each other for a much more limited passenger base. 

 

I don't think Celebrity has to worry at all as long as there are Millennials willing to pay their prices. Isn't that Celebrity's core target now?

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15 hours ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

Cruising isn't a form of transportation.

 

It is but it is a voluntary means of transportation that takes us to various islands. Similar to a plane on a voluntary vacation to some far off area. A ship takes you from point a to b, etc back to a.

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On 12/22/2020 at 8:04 AM, sanger727 said:

 

Actually, they do say that flying is safe, even if someone on the plane has covid. And yes, I have flown for pleasure at this point and don't have a problem with doing it again.

 

Study: Risk Of Covid-19 Transmission On Planes ‘Virtually Nonexistent’ For Mask-Wearers (forbes.com)

 

I think the number of cases transmitted is low on the plane, because the tracing is so difficult to tell where someone got it. It is likely a lot higher than the 44 they are saying, but who knows. We will just have to agree to disagree on this one.

 

The anti cruise ship message that is being put out there by the CDC leads me to believe that it will be a long time before prices go down, because many people won't trust that cruising is safe. It may even impact the number of casual cruisers that will find other types of vacations now instead for many years to come.

 

Cruise lines will have a choice if demand isn't there, to either cut prices to get more people to sail, or to raise prices even further to make up the lost revenue on the diehards that are willing to sail at almost any cost.

 

In all honestly I don't see how it would be unsafe to sail now with limited numbers, masks and social distancing. The experience won't be as fun, but it should be possible. It might mean though things like pools and other items would be closed which would make it a very boring trip for kids especially.

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2 minutes ago, cgolf1 said:

In all honestly I don't see how it would be unsafe to sail now with limited numbers, masks and social distancing. The experience won't be as fun, but it should be possible. It might mean though things like pools and other items would be closed which would make it a very boring trip for kids especially.

it won't be unsafe.  One can make anything "safe" with enough restrictions and guidance.  

 

It WILL be cost prohibitive for the cruise line.  Reduction of the number of ships and no new builds for the near future.  At a certain point the losses will require ships and especially itinerary reductions/eliminations.  

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30 minutes ago, cgolf1 said:

 

I think the number of cases transmitted is low on the plane, because the tracing is so difficult to tell where someone got it. It is likely a lot higher than the 44 they are saying, but who knows. We will just have to agree to disagree on this one.

 

 

I agree on this point but that wasn't the main point of the article. The main point of the article was discuss a study that showed the following things:

 

Announced Thursday, the results of the study showed that the aggressive air filtration and circulation systems on planes lead to the near-immediate dispersal of particles carrying the infection.

 

Per these results, it would take a minimum of 54 hours of sitting next to someone with Covid-19 to be exposed to an infectious dose. 

 

Simulating a packed plane, researchers placed mannequins—both with and without masks—around the cabin and released 280 million particles into the air, the amount that would be produced by around 1,000 coughs, to mimic the infection.

 

“99.99% of those particles left the interior of the aircraft within six

minutes,” said United Airlines Chief Communication Officer Josh Earnest at a Politico event announcing the results which concluded that risk when masked is “virtually nonexistent” and signaled  “being on board an aircraft is the safest indoor public space,” in the words of Earnest.

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33 minutes ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

it won't be unsafe.  One can make anything "safe" with enough restrictions and guidance.  

 

It WILL be cost prohibitive for the cruise line.  Reduction of the number of ships and no new builds for the near future.  At a certain point the losses will require ships and especially itinerary reductions/eliminations.  

That will I believe include some lines going under, or big corps like carnival folding some brands. Will be interesting to see what happens. Just happy we are locked in at good prices unless they sell Connie than not so much lol.

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I doubt prices will ever go down. Its not possible financially wise. All that we can expect is the drop in prices for a very short period of time due to some promotion or seasonal event. I doubt there will be any more other changes in this regard 

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46 minutes ago, Roger88 said:

I doubt prices will ever go down. Its not possible financially wise. All that we can expect is the drop in prices for a very short period of time due to some promotion or seasonal event. I doubt there will be any more other changes in this regard 

 

Apparently during the great recession post 9/11 cruise lines lowered prices or offered a lot of promotions to get people sailing. The unfortunate difference here is both a lot of people and all the cruise lines have lost income and somehow need to make it back from the bottom. Will be interesting to see how it happens. I think the demand will drive the price to a point, but the cruise lines need to get out of debt which at least short term I am not holding out hope for prices dropping.

Edited by cgolf1
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1 minute ago, cgolf1 said:

 

Apparently during the great recession post 9/11 cruise lines lowered prices or offered a lot of promotions to get people sailing. The unfortunate difference here is both a lot of people and all the cruise lines have lost income and somehow need to make it back from the bottom somehow. Will be interesting to see how it happens. I think the demand will drive the price to a point, but the cruise lines need to get out of debt which at least short term I am not holding out hope for prices dropping.

The thing here to understand is that its not a discount really. They raised the prices intentionally, just to make a discount later. Its a very simple commercial trick widely used during urgent economic situations. This is why prices will never go back to their previous states 

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4 hours ago, ChucktownSteve said:

 

I don't think Celebrity has to worry at all as long as there are Millennials willing to pay their prices. Isn't that Celebrity's core target now?

We can't pay it either, our credit cards are maxed out on avocados!! 

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I found what I think is a reasonable European cruise in early Nov 2021.  Two adults in Aqua class for a 7 day booking at $4766, about $350/pp/day.  I compared it with longer cruises on similar itinerary.  I haven't booked it yet because I'm waiting to see prices in January.

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4 hours ago, cgolf1 said:

 

Apparently during the great recession post 9/11 cruise lines lowered prices or offered a lot of promotions to get people sailing. The unfortunate difference here is both a lot of people and all the cruise lines have lost income and somehow need to make it back from the bottom. Will be interesting to see how it happens. I think the demand will drive the price to a point, but the cruise lines need to get out of debt which at least short term I am not holding out hope for prices dropping.

There is another difference.  Doing the Great Recession cruises still occurred, they did  not stop completely with ships laid up doing nothing, earning zero income.  Despite the recession some could still afford to vacation on a cruise.  By the time "cruising" restarts in what ever form it will take, it will have been over one year for cruise lines not earning any income.  As the industry estimates, that currently is over $20Billion worldwide with more to come until likely/at least mid-2021.  A shakeout will happen.  Lines, especially individual ships, will be "discontinued."  New crews will need to be trained.  New procedures established and practiced.

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11 minutes ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

There is another difference.  Doing the Great Recession cruises still occurred, they did  not stop completely with ships laid up doing nothing, earning zero income.  Despite the recession some could still afford to vacation on a cruise.  By the time "cruising" restarts in what ever form it will take, it will have been over one year for cruise lines not earning any income.  As the industry estimates, that currently is over $20Billion worldwide with more to come until likely/at least mid-2021.  A shakeout will happen.  Lines, especially individual ships, will be "discontinued."  New crews will need to be trained.  New procedures established and practiced.

They will come back for sure.  There is a HUGE pent up desire to get back on a ship.  If you have a bit of free time, do some mock bookings and you will get a sense of what is, or should I say, what is not available, especially at the suite level.  Hence the price increases, they need to replace billions of lost revenue and this is the result.  Will the prices come down, how in the heck do I or anyone else know.  They just need to get cruising and see how it all shakes out.  Once they resume my uneducated guess is it will take two years for them to get a feel for the future.  

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On 12/21/2020 at 9:03 PM, jagoffee said:

I believe you are correct.  There has been a vaccine for TB and effective treatments for a while.  And in 2019, 10 million people were infected, and 1 million people died from TB.  No, I am not comparing TB to COVID, I am just expressing that it takes a long time to vaccinate the world’s population.

 

 

I completely agree and in many countries in Africa TB is rampant and sadly many TB patients also have HIV.  I do think that there are many diseases that are mostly confined to places that extremely cruise passengers would consider visiting.  Years ago while volunteering with the WHO installing potable water systems I was required to ha

 

On 12/22/2020 at 3:46 PM, jagoffee said:

TB is a must more recent example.  We do not hear much about TB in the US, because it is very much under control.  But in the world it is still remains a major concern that killed  more than 1 Million people world wide as recently as 2019.

 

Key facts. A total of 1.4 million people died from TB in 2019 (including 208 000 people with HIV). Worldwide, TB is one of the top 10 causes of death and the leading cause from a single infectious agent (above HIV/AIDS). In 2019, an estimated 10 millionpeople fell ill with tuberculosis(TB) worldwide.”

 

 

You might want to look where those 1.4M cases are located.  Most of those areas are extremely isolated areas of Africa where doctors are a rarity.  In those countries medical care is not at the top of a wish list.  Food, water and shelter to survive is where one's efforts are targeted.  The medical effort in those areas except for something like Ebola is control not eradication.  

As Derrick said those third world countries have little effect outside their communities so sadly there is little effort spent to eradicate a disease like TB that can effectively be limited to those areas.

Edited by Arizona Wildcat
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1 hour ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

There is another difference.  Doing the Great Recession cruises still occurred, they did  not stop completely with ships laid up doing nothing, earning zero income.  Despite the recession some could still afford to vacation on a cruise.  By the time "cruising" restarts in what ever form it will take, it will have been over one year for cruise lines not earning any income.  As the industry estimates, that currently is over $20Billion worldwide with more to come until likely/at least mid-2021.  A shakeout will happen.  Lines, especially individual ships, will be "discontinued."  New crews will need to be trained.  New procedures established and practiced.

 

Agreed, I think you missed it in my reply that both cruise lines and families lost income which is the wild card here. I think we started cruising in the great recession so we have seen cruise prices do nothing but climb since we started. Having done Disney the Celebrity prices aren't scaring us yet, but I can empathize with those that feel Celebrity is raising prices and lessening the experience because that is what we saw on Disney before we left and was why we left.

 

It is going to be an interesting few years in cruising.

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13 hours ago, LGW59 said:

They will come back for sure.  There is a HUGE pent up desire to get back on a ship.  If you have a bit of free time, do some mock bookings and you will get a sense of what is, or should I say, what is not available, especially at the suite level.  Hence the price increases, they need to replace billions of lost revenue and this is the result.  Will the prices come down, how in the heck do I or anyone else know.  They just need to get cruising and see how it all shakes out.  Once they resume my uneducated guess is it will take two years for them to get a feel for the future.  

Not necessarily.  Two weeks ago booked a TA Fort Lauderdale to Southampton in 2022 on Sky Princess in a suite near the concierge.  Princess's website with was not showing these suites as available.  Rummaging around other sites discovered they were only about 25 percent booked.  Had to call travel agent to book.  RCG (Celebrity) and other doing similar.  They re holding many rooms off the market for some reason.  Speculation maybe to create artificial demand from reduced availability?!?!

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23 minutes ago, bajathree said:

Cruise lines can ask whatever they want right now.....BUT one thing to remember...NOTHING is sailing;) and that's probably not changing anytime soon.

As long as ships aren’t sailing we are dealing with hypotheticals - my best forecast is people will see the light at the end of the tunnel by February when tier 1 and 2 groups have been vaccinated.  There should be some cruise choices by summer depending on individual country travel restrictions.  There might be some under the radar deals for last minute cruises to targeted groups - gamblers and travel industry and possible last minute deals if capacity restrictions are lifted.  
 

My first post vaccination trip will be a land tour in April and I’m hopeful a couple cruises will open up (for me that means price, location, and timing) will open up in late summer or early fall.

 

It is reasonable to expect safety protocols and safety requirements to be ever changing and modified throughout the year but every country has an incentive to rebuild confidence in their tourism.  We’ve seen a shift this week in Nevada to focusing on how many vaccinations are occurring and how quickly everyone can get vaccinated - if we can provide some confidence in safety hopefully things will start to move.  People clearly vote with their feet and if they don’t feel safe they don’t visit or spend.  

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