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NCL Needs Creative Innovation - Fast - Or Else


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As I've opined in threads, NCL is on the weakest foundation financially and market demographically, of the big three.  It simply cannot go through June 30, 2021 without qualifications of its "going concern" capabilities (to meet obligations 1 year out from issuance of financial reports), failures to meet its debt covenants and certainly its cash reserves. 

 

I really like NCL as a cruiser (also MSC, RCCL).  I just can't see them financially making it (the number of months it appears that cruising is OUT for normalcy is now well in to next year), or more equity offerings or debt offerings that make sense.

 

So, why not 'take the fight on and get creative.  They have nothing to lose possibly.

 

1.  Plan, on their knees working with the CDC, to start cruises with a modification of MSC's protocols on Grandiosa in Italy (testing, masks, controlled excursions, etc.) and add vaccinated status passenger (and entire crew) cruises to start only.  Many of the cruise line demographics are age-tiered and that is the prioritization of the vaccines in most jurisdictions.

 

2.  Even if no ports of call, or the CDC, will not relent if the itineraries are deemed a risk at the time, start cruises to nowhere, with increased use of their private islands.

 

There has to be a "breaking of the ice."  They have to "start something." 

 

They have nothing to lose by trying, and if they don't try FAST, IMO they are done (as in ownership structure as we know it today).

 

Personally, I don't believe the NCL leadership "has what it takes."  I hope I'm wrong.

 

IMO.

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At this point and including the loss of the Alaska cruise season now I would bet 60/40 that some sort of bankruptcy reorganization will happen soon at this point. Just my opinion of course. With the PVSA around and the current inability to legally have cruises to nowhere it is not looking good. I canceled my August cruise to Alaska last week before this hit as I saw it coming .....I would NOT want to have any money tied up with NCL right now and feel that those with FCC are going to lose it after all this if it hits the courts. 

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9 minutes ago, tallnthensome said:

At this point and including the loss of the Alaska cruise season now I would bet 60/40 that some sort of bankruptcy reorganization will happen soon at this point. Just my opinion of course. With the PVSA around and the current inability to legally have cruises to nowhere it is not looking good. I canceled my August cruise to Alaska last week before this hit as I saw it coming .....I would NOT want to have any money tied up with NCL right now and feel that those with FCC are going to lose it after all this if it hits the courts. 

 

Agreed.

 

I had planned the cruises to nowhere to stop at a private island.  So, to nowhere is out from US ports.

 

Agree on the restructuring outlook.  Quite familiar with it from 2009-2012 of public companies.  Complexities increased with other jurisdictions.  The debt markets appear, IMO only, to be positioning for such.  These "investors" are not in it to be nice.

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I think RCG will make a hostile takeover for NCLH; offering perhaps $5 per share and volunteering to take on the debt.  They would then immediately sell the four "R" ships and Seven Seas Navigator.

Edited by mrlevin
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Its tough times no doubt.  Just watched a new NCL CEO video.  They are building the Leonardo ships nonstop and guess what.....they are not being delayed.  They expect cruising to resume in 6 months.  No one knows what it will look like in 6 months but IMHO I think that's correct.  The prices would not be so high if people were not booking cruises that may or may not happen.  People are frustrated, I get it.  But NCL will survive this.  Hope is here.  The mass vaccinations are about to begin.  It really is a new day.  In just 3 months, there is going to be HUGE change because of the vaccinations.  NCL was extremely profitable before COVID and they will be extremely profitable after COVID.

Edited by david_sobe
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8 minutes ago, david_sobe said:

 

Its tough times no doubt.  Just watched a new NCL CEO video.  They are building the Leonardo ships nonstop and guess what.....they are not being delayed.  They expect cruising to resume in 6 months.  No one knows what it will look like in 6 months but IMHO I think that's correct.  The prices would not be so high if people were not booking cruises that may or may not happen.  People are frustrated, I get it.  But NCL will survive this.  Hope is here.  The mass vaccinations are about to begin.  It really is a new day.  In just 3 months, there is going to be HUGE change because of the vaccinations.  NCL was extremely profitable before COVID and they will be extremely profitable after COVID.

 

So what flavor was the kool-aid they served with the video?

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1 minute ago, mrlevin said:

 

So what flavor was the kool-aid they served with the video?

What is it that you don't believe?  If Leonardo was delayed it would be a public fact since it requires workers to work and there is a contract.  NCL has developed and did a tasting of a new Haven menu.  NCL is spending a fortune on advertising right now.  They would not be doing this if cruising was not imminent.  Once the vaccine numbers go way up, Covid is going to come crashing down as fast as it spread.

Sadly people keep wishing they are going bankrupt or being taken over. Yet no proof or facts.  Sadly no one believes facts anymore.  So many only believe what they want to believe.  And you have the right to your opinion.
The cry babies kick and scream they cant cruise and make up all sort of wild and false claims.  

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I am sure the ships are going to be fantastic and the menus exciting.  I agree that the vaccination will be picking up speed and the pandemic will wane.   My issue is with the thought process that the virus will be "eradicated," after all, only smallpox has been truly "eradicated."  The actions of government bodies seem to be waiting for eradication instead of waning of the virus; until we get past this I don't think the lawyers and insurers will let any of the large USA "centered" cruise lines to sail.  

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Formula280SS said:

I had planned the cruises to nowhere to stop at a private island.  So, to nowhere is out from US ports.

Of course that would require the Bahamas (Great Stirrup Cay) or Belize ( Harvest Caye) to approve cruise ship visits. Being a "private island" doesn't exempt you from the laws of the country of which the island is a part . 

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2 hours ago, tallnthensome said:

At this point and including the loss of the Alaska cruise season now I would bet 60/40 that some sort of bankruptcy reorganization will happen soon at this point. Just my opinion of course. With the PVSA around and the current inability to legally have cruises to nowhere it is not looking good. I canceled my August cruise to Alaska last week before this hit as I saw it coming .....I would NOT want to have any money tied up with NCL right now and feel that those with FCC are going to lose it after all this if it hits the courts. 

 

I very much hope the positive posters in this thread are correct and NCL survives but something in the back of my mind (not very scientific I know) tells me that they stopped issuing FCC and went to cash refunds only is because they know now that they will have to screw over the customers that are holding FCC and by stopping the FCC program they are hoping to minimize customer outrage when they find out there money is gone and they are not getting it back.

 

For me personally it is not so much impatience to sail but worrying about my FCC expiring or it just disappearing during a restructure.  If I new NCL was secure and the FCC would be there until it was time to sail again I could wait as long as it took with feeling impatient.

 

I understand it was my choice to accept a FCC and if I lose it I will not be bitter.  I understand that a company is going to do what they have to do in order to survive and they have no control of the situation.

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1 hour ago, njhorseman said:

Of course that would require the Bahamas (Great Stirrup Cay) or Belize ( Harvest Caye) to approve cruise ship visits. Being a "private island" doesn't exempt you from the laws of the country of which the island is a part . 

 

Didn't say it or they did not.   Try to stay calm, relax.  Get a grip.  Don't read with a confirmation bias and portend to offer in the nonexistent ruse.

 

Clearly, the suggestion was actually focusing on complying with required "one stop" for US purposes.  It is rather clear.  

 

However, I'm 100% sure you'll disagree or impart some other outside of the post purpose peripheral pivot.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Formula280SS said:

 

Didn't say it or they did not.   Try to stay calm, relax.  Get a grip.  Don't read with a confirmation bias and portend to offer in the nonexistent ruse.

 

Clearly, the suggestion was actually focusing on complying with required "one stop" for US purposes.  It is rather clear.  

 

However, I'm 100% sure you'll disagree or impart some other outside of the post purpose peripheral pivot.

 

 

 

I see you haven't changed your MO. When you don't have facts on your side you resort to insults. 

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3 hours ago, david_sobe said:

NCL has developed and did a tasting of a new Haven menu.

Do you have links to this? I’ve thought NCL needed to update the Haven menu for several years, after falling behind the other mass market lines suites dining rooms, but haven’t seen this anywhere. 

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48 minutes ago, AstoriaPreppy said:

Do you have links to this? I’ve thought NCL needed to update the Haven menu for several years, after falling behind the other mass market lines suites dining rooms, but haven’t seen this anywhere. 

Here you go.  They talk about NCL sailing to Cuba again, Covid, Leonardo project, and new Haven menus

UPDATE w/ CEO Norwegian Cruise Line | New Dining Concepts, Project Leonardo & Cruising to Cuba - YouTube

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I’ve said it since COVID began. They will be bought out. Internally they are a mess.  Eliminating an entire line of management that were told they couldn’t afford to keep that structure?  If you think the phone lines were a mess before, it will only get worse. FDR isn’t going to make a video telling you this 

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8 hours ago, david_sobe said:

They are building the Leonardo ships nonstop and guess what.....they are not being delayed.

From what I heard Harry Sommer say,  he was talking about one ship, the one scheduled for delivery in 2022, which was already under construction when the pandemic hit . He did say it would likely be one month late...not a big deal.

 

Work wouldn't have begun on the later deliveries yet, so he wouldn't be lying by saying nothing is delayed any more than I'd be lying by saying my 2020 income tax return is on schedule. I haven't actually started it but it isn't late as of today because it's not April 15 and I still have enough time left to get it done.

Edited by njhorseman
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I'm quite sure that, along with all the other cruise lines, they are badgering the CDC on an almost daily basis trying to get some sort of decision

14 hours ago, Formula280SS said:

Plan, on their knees working with the CDC, to start cruises with a modification of MSC's protocols on Grandiosa in Italy (testing, masks, controlled excursions, etc.) and add vaccinated status passenger (and entire crew) cruises to start only.  Many of the cruise line demographics are age-tiered and that is the prioritization of the vaccines in most jurisdictions.

 

I'm quite sure that, along with all the other cruise lines, they are badgering the CDC on an almost daily basis trying to get some sort of decision including letting them work like MSC Grandiosa

 

 

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For the OP, the onboard protocols are not the hang up to restarting at the moment.  The first phase of the CDC's plan was the crew protocols and testing facilities onboard.  This has been accomplished to a great part, as seen by the increase in the number of "green status" ships for commercial crew change.  The next step is the "port and local health agreements", which are not any part of the MSC European cruise plan, and which I foresee as being a major stumbling block.  While ports may be guided by politics as to whether they sign agreements with the cruise lines, the health care industry (hospitals, ambulances, transportation, and potential quarantine sites) are businesses, and many may not see an upside to signing agreements with cruise lines to take potential covid cases, or do so at exorbitant rates.

 

As to your put down of njhorseman, he is completely correct.  You proposed a "cruise to nowhere" (not legal in US), and also use of private islands.  He pointed out that use of the private island would create a legal cruise, but that the nation involved would have to agree to accept cruise ships, the lack of this agreement would make your argument moot.  It is a completely valid point, and definitely not off topic, so get off your high horse.

 

Your other stumbling block is crew vaccinations.  How is NCL to ensure that crew are all vaccinated?  Who coordinates this?  How many countries are involved?  Who pays for this?

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25 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

 

As to your put down of njhorseman, he is completely correct.  You proposed a "cruise to nowhere" (not legal in US), and also use of private islands.  He pointed out that use of the private island would create a legal cruise, but that the nation involved would have to agree to accept cruise ships, the lack of this agreement would make your argument moot.  It is a completely valid point, and definitely not off topic, so get off your high horse.

 

Your other stumbling block is crew vaccinations.  How is NCL to ensure that crew are all vaccinated?  Who coordinates this?  How many countries are involved?  Who pays for this?

 

The reference to the cruise to to nowhere was clarified, and it was never disputed that the private island nations would have to agree.  Again, the high horse saddle you wear quite well at time.  You might want to actually read what discussed before launching into another childish tirade.

 

The reference to vaccination requirement for the crews is a sold recommendation and requirement.  I could really care who pays the token fee, relative to the 150-170M a month in losses and cash burns.  Again, I know you hate the cruise lines.  I can't fix whatever you problems were with them, but from the personalization of your posts I can certainly get a good idea as to what the cause was.

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28 minutes ago, Formula280SS said:

Again, I know you hate the cruise lines.  I can't fix whatever you problems were with them, but from the personalization of your posts I can certainly get a good idea as to what the cause was.

If I hate the cruise lines so much, why did I stoutly defend Carnival in the wake of the Triumph fire against the vast majority of CC members, or other lines when I felt they were unfairly criticized for things that were either out of their control or improperly presented or understood from the media.

 

I wish the cruise lines well.  I wish they were forced to become US flag operations, but that is a Quixotic dream that will never come to fruition, and I well know it.  I worked for the cruise lines, and left them for other opportunities within the maritime industry.  I am now retiring this year, and so will have no dog in the fight over any part of the maritime industry at that point.

 

That's enough justification of me, I agree with njhorseman that you are adept at the common trait of today, deflection when you don't have the answer or when it doesn't suit your argument.

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IMO it appears that the CDC is determined to push the cruise lines (especially C, R & N) into bankruptcy reorganizations. This happened to to all US airlines (except SW) and it was the shareholders and creditors that lost money. I see the same happening to the cruise industry. Not sure what would happen to FCCs and deposits but feel that they would be protected.  No cruise line has the financial ability to purchase another at this time. So sell your stock ( and bonds if you have any) and hold on for a rough ride.

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1 hour ago, chengkp75 said:

If I hate the cruise lines so much, why did I stoutly defend Carnival in the wake of the Triumph fire against the vast majority of CC members, or other lines when I felt they were unfairly criticized for things that were either out of their control or improperly presented or understood from the media.

 

I wish the cruise lines well.  I wish they were forced to become US flag operations, but that is a Quixotic dream that will never come to fruition, and I well know it.  I worked for the cruise lines, and left them for other opportunities within the maritime industry.  I am now retiring this year, and so will have no dog in the fight over any part of the maritime industry at that point.

 

That's enough justification of me, I agree with njhorseman that you are adept at the common trait of today, deflection when you don't have the answer or when it doesn't suit your argument.

 

Well, you step into the middle of an ongoing issue between others, ignore the substance of the OP for NCL needing to get creative and fast, purport that it was stated that the cruise lines could port with itinerary at island nations against their will and then share, from your judicial perch, childish name calling.

 

I think you are due for retirement.

 

You concurrence with another of similar social media self aggrandized admiration is inconsequential.  

 

Also, there was no deflection, nor answer required, and there was no argument. 

 

You (plural) "made such up" because the real common trait today is the inability (by some) to let people express their own opinions, have their own beliefs, make up their own minds and conduct ones life activities outside of and without regard to whether or not the self appointed ruling class approves.

 

Back to the OP, NCL needs to get creative and aggressive and it needs to do such fast or it isn't going to make.

 

That's IMO, will always be.

 

 

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I think (IOW, its my opinion 😉) that it is amazing how some people can argue that everyone can have their opinion, yet they totally trash the opinions of those who don't agree with their own.

 

How convienient that must be.

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1 minute ago, SeaShark said:

I think (IOW, its my opinion 😉) that it is amazing how some people can argue that everyone can have their opinion, yet they totally trash the opinions of those who don't agree with their own.

 

How convienient that must be.

 

Not trashing others opinions, just taking the words out of my mouth that they put in and then subjected to judgment.

 

BTW, any thoughts on NCL taking creative, innovative action fast?  Nope.  I didn't think so.  Thought police; another volunteer.

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Thought police? Wait, I thought we were allowed to have our own opinions...without directly attacking the opinions of others?

 

For thee, but not for me, huh?

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