Aren't Vaccines a Game-Changer?

[mrlevin]

19 minutes ago, pappy1022 said:

 IMO, we are still in for a long battle even as vaccines roll out in greater numbers. Herd immunity may be the only way to stop this beast.

 

I am sure glad USA is heading towards 10% reported (and probably a lot more) that have had the disease and over 10% that have at least one dose of the vaccines; hopefully herd immunity isn't too far away.  I wonder how those that tried (mostly successfully) to keep the virus at bay such as Australia, New Zealand, Guernsey, et al will fare once this reaches endemic stage.

[Jimmcdaniel]

1 hour ago, pappy1022 said:

One phrase in this article, and the only words that have been consistently used with COVID-19, is “that we don’t know”. It is in fact a novel virus and by definition it is a strain that we haven’t seen before. We do know that viruses mutate and adapt but with COVID-19 we don’t know (there it is again) how that will look and whether current vaccines will be as effective against these new mutations. We have learned a lot about COVID-19 but at the moment the virus seems to be 1 step ahead of us. That’s nothing new for viruses. They are always mutating and getting more efficient at spreading and infecting their hosts. That is their single purpose and unfortunately COVID-19 is darn good at doing so. IMO, we are still in for a long battle even as vaccines roll out in greater numbers. Herd immunity may be the only way to stop this beast.

I wonder when we will decide we know enough? It would seem to me that the ideas of chasing mutations and achieving herd immunity are at odds with each other. The virus will do what viruses do---mutate. I doubt we will ever have so-called herd immunity. We certainly don't have it for the influenza virus. I think it is highly likely we will have to have an annual covid shot just like the flu shot. Maybe they can be combined. In the meantime, since I am a little shy of 65, my shot is a way off. It wouldn't surprise me if by the time I got a shot they were on to vaccine 2.0 or whatever. 

 

In my original post I was trying to explore the idea that the approved vaccines don't act in a binary fashion--that is, they don't necessarily work or don't work, rather they dramatically decrease the severity of the disease--hopefully to the point we can start to live with it, much like we live with many other diseases circulating around our planet. 

[Guerncruising]

13 hours ago, mrlevin said:

 

I wonder how those that tried (mostly successfully) to keep the virus at bay such as Australia, New Zealand, Guernsey, et al will fare once this reaches endemic stage.

Well we, Guernsey, did manage to keep the virus at bay until just after Christmas when we had a second wave. So far in this pandemic we have had 760 positive results following testing, with 252 of those coming from the first wave. It would appear that most of the second wave, 500+, are of the new strain which is obviously more virulent. Borders have been closed again and we have had two weeks of lockdown and are hoping to be released soon. 

The interesting point is how did it get into the island? We have an excellent contact tracing team and really the only people coming in are essential workers or those who have been to the UK for medical treatment. I suspect that someone broke the self isolation rules and wow how quickly it spread from the first four cases of the second wave. 

Keep safe, cruise soon. 

[ShropshireCritic]

8 hours ago, Guerncruising said:

Well we, Guernsey, did manage to keep the virus at bay until just after Christmas when we had a second wave. So far in this pandemic we have had 760 positive results following testing, with 252 of those coming from the first wave. It would appear that most of the second wave, 500+, are of the new strain which is obviously more virulent. Borders have been closed again and we have had two weeks of lockdown and are hoping to be released soon. 

The interesting point is how did it get into the island? We have an excellent contact tracing team and really the only people coming in are essential workers or those who have been to the UK for medical treatment. I suspect that someone broke the self isolation rules and wow how quickly it spread from the first four cases of the second wave. 

Keep safe, cruise soon. 

I thought Island authorities with their local knowledge had tracked the single source down “via” the main pub in St Peter’s Port. It’s quite surprising how from a single person returning home from the mainland who thought that he knew better, that the virus was able to spread so rapidly in an unprotected population.

That is why IMHO the vaccination has to form the key part of any logical route out of the current situation until the virus follows the natural path of previous similar pandemics and eventually with continual annual vaccination programs mutates to a much lower contagious level that is gradually suppressed. 

[Chunky2219]

Try this for a little thought excercise.................  Whatever your view about how the Covid versus vaccine dynamic might pan out in your own corner of the world, begin by recognising that no vaccine ever works 100% of the time for 100% of people - the best you can hope for is a high percentage of people avoiding the very worst effects of a disease.  Now assume that it is dramatically different in half a dozen other countries where:

• a new variant has just sprung up a month ago, or
• vaccine uptake is poor or patchy because of political/philospohical/theological or just plain stupid reasoning, or
• vaccines work great but some people, some countries, some groups won't use or don't trust vaccine passports, or
• vaccine uptake has been awesome but after 2, 3, 4 or more waves they now don't trust many other countries and don't want their citizens, plus
• one of these countries is on your cruise itinerary, or
• someone from one of these countries is on your ship, or
• someone from one of these countries was on your flight to your cruise start point

Now factor in that a cruise ship is an almost perfect breeding ground for the virus, like a big prison where people can mix freely 24/7.  Now think about the typical demographic of most cruise ships with respect to succeptibility to serious effects.  (it's not positive).

 

Once you've got this far, now imagine you are a cruise ship operator planning 3 years in advance normally and maybe 3 months in advance now.  All this while trying to make at least a break even position out of it all.  It's a high sunk capital cost, rapid revenue turnover and highly inflexible business.

 

I personally can't think of a more difficult industry in which to keep operating.  Unless and until Covid 19 naturally dies back to be as threatening as the common cold it's not going to be sustainable.  Sadly, vaccines won't change the game.

[Wizpharm2]

2 hours ago, Chunky2219 said:

Try this for a little thought excercise.................  Whatever your view about how the Covid versus vaccine dynamic might pan out in your own corner of the world, begin by recognising that no vaccine ever works 100% of the time for 100% of people - the best you can hope for is a high percentage of people avoiding the very worst effects of a disease.  Now assume that it is dramatically different in half a dozen other countries where:

• a new variant has just sprung up a month ago, or
• vaccine uptake is poor or patchy because of political/philospohical/theological or just plain stupid reasoning, or
• vaccines work great but some people, some countries, some groups won't use or don't trust vaccine passports, or
• vaccine uptake has been awesome but after 2, 3, 4 or more waves they now don't trust many other countries and don't want their citizens, plus
• one of these countries is on your cruise itinerary, or
• someone from one of these countries is on your ship, or
• someone from one of these countries was on your flight to your cruise start point

Now factor in that a cruise ship is an almost perfect breeding ground for the virus, like a big prison where people can mix freely 24/7.  Now think about the typical demographic of most cruise ships with respect to succeptibility to serious effects.  (it's not positive).

 

Once you've got this far, now imagine you are a cruise ship operator planning 3 years in advance normally and maybe 3 months in advance now.  All this while trying to make at least a break even position out of it all.  It's a high sunk capital cost, rapid revenue turnover and highly inflexible business.

 

I personally can't think of a more difficult industry in which to keep operating.  Unless and until Covid 19 naturally dies back to be as threatening as the common cold it's not going to be sustainable.  Sadly, vaccines won't change the game.

I agree that vaccines are not the answer for COVID since it is rapidly mutating and annual vaccines will probably be needed.  However, I do think that vaccines paired with therapeutics may allow cruising to resume.  We probably can’t stop or eradicate the virus worldwide, but if we can reduce the need for hospitalization, then cruise ships would have an acceptable level of risk.  The much maligned Hydroxychloquine may be part of the solution as it is part of an early treatment protocol that in a recent study reduced hospitalizations by 82%

[SWFLAOK]

2 hours ago, Chunky2219 said:

Try this for a little thought excercise.................  Whatever your view about how the Covid versus vaccine dynamic might pan out in your own corner of the world, begin by recognising that no vaccine ever works 100% of the time for 100% of people - the best you can hope for is a high percentage of people avoiding the very worst effects of a disease.  Now assume that it is dramatically different in half a dozen other countries where:

• a new variant has just sprung up a month ago, or
• vaccine uptake is poor or patchy because of political/philospohical/theological or just plain stupid reasoning, or
• vaccines work great but some people, some countries, some groups won't use or don't trust vaccine passports, or
• vaccine uptake has been awesome but after 2, 3, 4 or more waves they now don't trust many other countries and don't want their citizens, plus
• one of these countries is on your cruise itinerary, or
• someone from one of these countries is on your ship, or
• someone from one of these countries was on your flight to your cruise start point

Now factor in that a cruise ship is an almost perfect breeding ground for the virus, like a big prison where people can mix freely 24/7.  Now think about the typical demographic of most cruise ships with respect to succeptibility to serious effects.  (it's not positive).

 

Once you've got this far, now imagine you are a cruise ship operator planning 3 years in advance normally and maybe 3 months in advance now.  All this while trying to make at least a break even position out of it all.  It's a high sunk capital cost, rapid revenue turnover and highly inflexible business.

 

I personally can't think of a more difficult industry in which to keep operating.  Unless and until Covid 19 naturally dies back to be as threatening as the common cold it's not going to be sustainable.  Sadly, vaccines won't change the game.

Please feel free to stay home. Many years ago, I was a microbiologist for 3 years before I discovered that I could make more money (and not have to lie about research results paid for by grants), and switched to being a software engineer instead.

I will feel much safer on cruise ships and airlines in the future if they screen people and remove those that are sick. They should never have been onboard, and if diagnosed with a contagious illness

after boarding, they should always have been removed or restricted to their cabin. Allowing people to remain onboard after they have been diagnosed by the shipboard doctor with a contagious disease, such as viral pneumonia, isn't a good idea. Allowing them to leave their cabin and eat in Compass Rose, should never be allowed, but it was on our cruise last January. Since our cruise originated in Singapore, and the previous cruise encountered many Chinese tourists on our excursions in Nha Trang, there was certainly a chance that those onboard could have come in contact with Covid19.

My point is that, there are always a large number of elderly people onboard Regent. They allow people who need daily dialysis, and others who might be more prone to infections than the normal population. We are in the 65 and over population, but we will stop cruising when we expect to need the onboard medical facility. Any medicare recipient who expects to need that, should restrict their cruises to the US.

[flossie009]

@Chunky2219

You appear to have missed the chances of a giant squid engulfing the ship or a meteorite strike causing a massive tsunami 🤨

Life is full of risks.

 

IMO it is likely that increased leisure travel & cruising will be allowed to recommence when governments evaluate that the risk of widespread virus transmission & serious illness is sufficiently diminished - to a level where healthcare systems are unlikely to be overwhelmed. Vaccination & improved treatments will assist in this goal.

 

Customers will have to evaluate their own enthusiasm for international travel as & when borders start reopening and more cruises recommence sailing.

It is difficult to predict when that will be, but hopefully sooner rather than later. A holiday this summer would be good and, being an optimist, I believe that to be a possibility. 

[ShropshireCritic]

27 minutes ago, flossie009 said:

@Chunky2219

You appear to have missed the chances of a giant squid engulfing the ship or a meteorite strike causing a massive tsunami 🤨

Life is full of risks.

 

IMO it is likely that increased leisure travel & cruising will be allowed to recommence when governments evaluate that the risk of widespread virus transmission & serious illness is sufficiently diminished - to a level where healthcare systems are unlikely to be overwhelmed. Vaccination & improved treatments will assist in this goal.

 

Customers will have to evaluate their own enthusiasm for international travel as & when borders start reopening and more cruises recommence sailing.

It is difficult to predict when that will be, but hopefully sooner rather than later. A holiday this summer would be good and, being an optimist, I believe that to be a possibility. 

Flossie.

Totally agree with everything you have said above.

Everything we do in life has an element of risk attached, some more than others.

If we never did anything because we "considered" the risk level as too high, then we might as well be wrapped up in cotton wool sitting at home all day.

As a fit 65 year old I have a greater risk of death from drowning that from a virus - which in my case it may even be a greater risk from drowning as a). I cannot swim, & b). I live directly on the banks of the River Severn (which is the UK's longest river).

So every time I am gardening or removing flood debris from my garden on the river banks, I subconsciously undertake a risk assessment to prevent my death from falling in & drowning.

Likewise, when the governments have allowed tourism to restart in the new "normality" (yes, it will be different for at least the initial 12 months), people will have to undertake their own subjective "risk assessments"  and weight up do they want to remain in cotton wool or accept that life has/will always have an element of risk that the individual can control.

[JMARINER]

 

While it may not be apparent today, the ability to rapidly develop vaccines that are now proved, rather that a concept due to Covid-19 may be a real game changer in the future. The flu, malaria , even the common cold may soon be maladies of the past according to this article for Nature magazine.

 

""How COVID unlocked the power of RNA vaccines. The technology could revolutionize efforts to immunize against HIV, malaria, influenza and more.""

 

Link

 

J

[pingpong1]

1 hour ago, JMARINER said:

 

While it may not be apparent today, the ability to rapidly develop vaccines that are now proved, rather that a concept due to Covid-19 may be a real game changer in the future. The flu, malaria , even the common cold may soon be maladies of the past according to this article for Nature magazine.

 

""How COVID unlocked the power of RNA vaccines. The technology could revolutionize efforts to immunize against HIV, malaria, influenza and more.""

 

Link

 

J

J - If anything at all could be seen as a positive result of this COVID Pandemic....it seems it would be the new RNA technology used to quickly develop effective vaccines to combat current and future viruses.

[Chunky2219]

Yeah, everything in life has a risk and we make our own choices.  Problem is, and here's the point that some people seem incapable of recognising ......... they aren't your choices to make. 

 

The cruise companies are businesses, they aren't going to take risks that have a high probability of costing big bucks or putting them out of business for good.  The decision on whether a ship can visit port A or country B isn't yours - it's down to the governmnet of that country and as we've seen, not only have events changed rapidly but there's the inevitble overlay of political decisions and the xenophibia factor.

 

The question here was whether vaccines will be a game changer.  They won't.  Not for cruising they won't.

 

But here's a bit more background to my thinking.  I've made my decision to stay at home.  Not directly because of Covid but because of the current unpredicatabiity of events and the high probability of me getting goosed on the price of self-booked flights, etc when the voyage inevitably gets cancelled.  I've moved our October 2021 voyage into 2023 because by then the situation will hopefully be a little clearer.

 

My second snippet is this - I have an old chap in his late 70s who comes to do my garden, his grandson is 18 years old and as fit as a butcher's dog.  He got Covid, suffrered for a week or so then got over it, as most 18 year olds would.  Last week he was doubled up with leg and chest pain and got carted off to hospital just in time to have a (thankfully) small heart attack.  The blood clot the size of a golf ball in his leg, caused by Covid, had thrown off a bit which had tracked to his heart and could have killed him.  Meanwhile the old boy has avoided Covid by exercising a bit of common sense and he too is more likely to die by drowning.  In his case it's the river at the bottom of my garden.

[pappy1022]

Sometimes this virus seems like an intelligent being, mutating so it can spread easier and diminish the effectiveness of current antibodies and vaccines.

There has been a lot of concern about the so called South African variant and now this from Pfizer:  “A laboratory study suggests that the South African variant of the coronavirus may reduce antibody protection from the Pfizer Inc/BioNTech SE vaccine by two-thirds, and it is not clear if the shot will be effective against the mutation”.

President Biden said that he is hoping to get back to a reasonable level of normality by Christmas 2021 and Doctor Fauci says, “Hopefully, by the time we start entering 2022, we really will have a degree of normality that will approximate the kind of normality we've been used to".

So, at least from the perspective of our political and medical leaders, it’s going to be a while before things begin to turn in our favor. I think that is a sign of a longer no sail order from the CDC than anyone anticipated going into 2021. 

[Ladys Mom]

Crystal has just announced that it will require vaccinations for all guests and crew.  I hope NCL makes the same determination soon so that we can all get back on the high seas.

[Pcardad]

They will. I posted about Crystal - it was moved - apparently it is not relevant? 

[mrlevin]

9 minutes ago, Ladys Mom said:

Crystal has just announced that it will require vaccinations for all guests and crew.  I hope NCL makes the same determination soon so that we can all get back on the high seas.

I think they announced that passengers would need to be vaccinated but not crew; not until vaccine is available to them.  They will start off just requiring testing and quarantine.  

[SWFLAOK]

12 hours ago, pappy1022 said:

Sometimes this virus seems like an intelligent being

Please do some research online about viruses before posting something like this.  And only read reliable medical or scientific sites. A virus isn't as advanced as a bacteria or parasite. It's just RNA that tells other cells what to do to reproduce itself because it can't do it on it's own. There's no intelligence involved. All it does is find a cell that it can use to reproduces itself. Anything that disrupts a virus from reproducing itself in human cells is an effective anti-viral agent. Stimulating our immune system to disrupt it is what Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have been designed to do.

[Jimmcdaniel]

14 hours ago, pappy1022 said:

Sometimes this virus seems like an intelligent being, mutating so it can spread easier and diminish the effectiveness of current antibodies and vaccines.

There has been a lot of concern about the so called South African variant and now this from Pfizer:  “A laboratory study suggests that the South African variant of the coronavirus may reduce antibody protection from the Pfizer Inc/BioNTech SE vaccine by two-thirds, and it is not clear if the shot will be effective against the mutation”.

President Biden said that he is hoping to get back to a reasonable level of normality by Christmas 2021 and Doctor Fauci says, “Hopefully, by the time we start entering 2022, we really will have a degree of normality that will approximate the kind of normality we've been used to".

So, at least from the perspective of our political and medical leaders, it’s going to be a while before things begin to turn in our favor. I think that is a sign of a longer no sail order from the CDC than anyone anticipated going into 2021. 

You neglected to include the next paragraph of the quote:

 

“The study found the vaccine was still able to neutralize the virus and there is not yet evidence from trials in people that the variant reduces vaccine protection”, the companies said.
 

The majority of the scientists interviewed seem to think that even with reduced antibody production, the vaccines are still very effective in neutralizing the virus. The point of my original post is that the vaccines, while not 100% effective, are good enough to reduce the effects of covid to that of other diseases that we have learned to live with. 
 

I have read all the responses to my original post. I think the most important point made had to do with the acceptance of cruise passengers to countries that they visit. This is not trivial, but neither is it a deal breaker. I think we are rapidly getting past the point where travel restrictions and quarantines are effective tools against the virus.
 

I am hopeful that vaccines are indeed a game changer and will soon allow the world to begin opening—with care and attention to the science— before the end of this year. 

[amusea]

On 2/8/2021 at 10:49 AM, Dolebludger said:

I agree with those here who say that international restrictions may remain a probem after vacinations are common in the USA. Even if vaccination proof is required for all guests, this may not be sufficient for foriegn authorities. After all, the CDC says that a vacccinated person can still pass the virus to others. And if the others are not vaccinated, its a problem. So "cruises to nowhere" may be posible before long, visiting ports may not.

 

[Jimmcdaniel]

@amusea and @Dolebludger,I guess we will see what happens. I stand by my statements. The fact that many European ports opened up to cruises before there were ANY vaccines available, and that Aida and Costa are slated to start cruising next month (with approvals from the ports being visited),  and countries like South Africa were open only a month ago makes me think that this is not a deal breaker although I acknowledge there may be limitations on port excursions. Also, March may slip into April or May but we are seeing progress largely due to the effect of vaccine availability. Hopefully vaccines, testing and contact tracing will replace travel bans and blanket quarantines and we can all start traveling again. 

[pappy1022]

9 hours ago, SWFLAOK said:

Please do some research online about viruses before posting something like this.  And only read reliable medical or scientific sites. A virus isn't as advanced as a bacteria or parasite. It's just RNA that tells other cells what to do to reproduce itself because it can't do it on it's own. There's no intelligence involved. All it does is find a cell that it can use to reproduces itself. Anything that disrupts a virus from reproducing itself in human cells is an effective anti-viral agent. Stimulating our immune system to disrupt it is what Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have been designed to do.

I know that viruses are not intelligent. I used the word “seemed” not to imply that this was a fact but to convey that COVID is adapting to it’s environment. I apologize if that wasn’t obvious. As far as quoting reliable sources, my quotes were directly from Pfizer, our president and Dr Fauci. I hope those are reliable sources.

[Wendy The Wanderer]

5 hours ago, pappy1022 said:

I know that viruses are not intelligent. I used the word “seemed” not to imply that this was a fact but to convey that COVID is adapting to it’s environment. I apologize if that wasn’t obvious. As far as quoting reliable sources, my quotes were directly from Pfizer, our president and Dr Fauci. I hope those are reliable sources.

Most of us knew what you meant.

[Dolebludger]

I have heard (from a semi-reliable source) that the J&J one-shot vaccine will be approved in a week or two, and will send out several million doses that require only normal refrigeration. If true, this will be a step forward but probably not a quick game changer as to cruising. For example, it is reported that Crystal will require all guests to have proof of vaccination. Good move, but that line is also requiring other things like a rather current negative test. In many places those tests are hard to get. And then, there are restrictions in many countries and ports that will prevent cruise visits there. Other matters besides vaccinations are involved in any return to cruising. Some of us wonder if all of these will be resolved in time to save to save the cruise lines.

[SWFLAOK]

22 minutes ago, Dolebludger said:

I have heard (from a semi-reliable source) that the J&J one-shot vaccine will be approved in a week or two, and will send out several million doses that require only normal refrigeration. If true, this will be a step forward but probably not a quick game changer as to cruising. For example, it is reported that Crystal will require all guests to have proof of vaccination. Good move, but that line is also requiring other things like a rather current negative test. In many places those tests are hard to get. And then, there are restrictions in many countries and ports that will prevent cruise visits there. Other matters besides vaccinations are involved in any return to cruising. Some of us wonder if all of these will be resolved in time to save to save the cruise lines.

Several million doses is a drop in the bucket. And even though we have had our second dose of vaccine, we can't fly from Florida to Pennsylvania without quarantining or having a negative Covid19 test within 72 hours of our arrival. If the US doesn't accept the vaccine for interstate travel, other countries won't want us there without a negative Covid19 test. And we'll probably still need one to return home since the US is not accepting the vaccine as valid for entry (or reentry) into the US.

[Dolebludger]

SWFLAOK,

 

That is exactly what I meant in my post!  Vaccines are great, but other matters stand in the way of any long distance travel.