Herd Immunity?

[LGW59]

2 minutes ago, frankdp said:

Gov Baker?

what is your ?

[Oville]

In all honesty I hope all get vaccines sooner than later.  I’ve expressed my frustrations here because others have said no big deal.  That is not what we’ve experienced and we will keep trying. Publix hopefully is up and running this week, Collier County not holding my breath, the last lime it took first shot appointments was Feb 1.

[cluso]

We got our first vaccines at Publix on 23 January, our second shot yesterday, 20 February.  Okaloosa County Niceville, Florida. Both over 65.  Moderna.  Just a sore arm the first shot, a sore arm, slight fatigue, and slight headache the second shot.

[Oville]

5 minutes ago, cluso said:

We got our first vaccines at Publix on 23 January, our second shot yesterday, 20 February.  Okaloosa County Niceville, Florida. Both over 65.  Moderna.  Just a sore arm the first shot, a sore arm, slight fatigue, and slight headache the second shot.

👍Congratulations so happy for you.  It would be a bit of a drive for us.😉

Edited February 22, 2021 by Oville

[Auntiemomo]

How many millions of people live in Florida, and they all want to get their vaccines yesterday?  LOL  I guess everyone's got to get in the queue.  

[Oville]

5 minutes ago, Auntiemomo said:

How many millions of people live in Florida, and they all want to get their vaccines yesterday?  LOL  I guess everyone's got to get in the queue.  

Actually it’s 21,500,000 people of which 4,000,000+ are over age 65.  We do need to wait our turn but, unlike other states, it is not being controlled by one source.  In my county you can get appointments from the county online, usually less than 30-45minutes before there are gone and haven’t been available since Feb 1.  Publix has appointments, again on line, at 6:00am now 7:00am and all gone in 30-40 minutes.  The cities also have appointments but only available to city residents.  With the exception of Publix no appointments have been available since Feb 1 for first time shots and Publix is only taking 2nd shot appointments and hasn’t for a week.

We understand we will eventually going to get the vaccine but it is hard to read people saying it’s not a problem.

 

Keeping safe in Naples, Fl., Katie

 

[LGW59]

25 minutes ago, Auntiemomo said:

How many millions of people live in Florida, and they all want to get their vaccines yesterday?  LOL  I guess everyone's got to get in the queue.  

🙄 I'm sure you can Google FL population, though you are asking a redundant question, LOL not needed

[Gracie115]

1 hour ago, Oville said:

Please state your source and where do live in FL., not town/city but county.  The governor here has probably done a great job in nursing homes but 40% of all those over 65? Fortunately our local paper does show stats.

Indian RIver County and I was stating stats I had read about Florida not my particular country.

Edited February 22, 2021 by Gracie115

[Oville]

12 minutes ago, Gracie115 said:

Indian RIver County and I was stating stats I had read about Florida not my particular country.

The only source I can find is WESH.  Thanks for your response that’s where my SIL lives but she and her husband got their vaccines in CT.  We will get ours sooner than later.

[bstrong3]

On 2/20/2021 at 8:41 AM, amyr said:

I thought the drop in cases was sort of expected after the holiday surge?  A combination of that and the beginnings of the vaccination rollout?  Here's a good, simple article that spells out what herd immunity looks like in the US.  We'll need at least 200,000,000 of us to either be vaccinated or have recovered from the virus.  I'm not sure our testing has been robust enough to have an accurate picture on the number of recovered, but it's nowhere near what we need I wouldn't think.

 

Mayo Clinic

That is the question how many of us have already had the virus and have recovered without even realizing?

[amyr]

9 hours ago, bstrong3 said:

That is the question how many of us have already had the virus and have recovered without even realizing?

The article I linked said that taking the vaccine out of the equation, 200 million of us (roughly 60%) would have had to have had the virus, whether full blown or asymptomatic for herd immunity.  The CDC thinks that because we haven't tested very well here in the US, it might be as many as 1 in 4 Americans have actually been infected.  That's still only 82 million people, and that's an educated guess at the very high end of who could have resistance.  They also worry that the resistance fades somewhere between 3 and 6 months, so who knows if the people that got infected in March and April aren't running to the end of their immunity?  That's something we probably won't understand for years yet.  And then there's the variants.

So, if 25 percent of the population has had it, and if they all still have resistance, and since 11 percent of Americans have had their first dose, we're still a ways away.  Vaccination is ramping up, though, so hopefully we'll really start humming along. 

Florida puts out a daily chart of vaccination numbers broken down by age, race, ethnicity, and county.  Today's chart shows that 1,388,919 Floridians are 'series completed' and I imagine most states are at about the same percentage, or near it anyway.   If any of you Floridians are interested and haven't seen it, here it is:  Florida Vaccine Report

 

 

 

[broberts]

One has to be careful combining estimates of those that have naturally acquired immunity with vaccination numbers. The vaccination number presumably includes a proportional number of those with naturally acquired immunity.

[amyr]

1 hour ago, broberts said:

One has to be careful combining estimates of those that have naturally acquired immunity with vaccination numbers. The vaccination number presumably includes a proportional number of those with naturally acquired immunity.

This is very true.  My aunt is one of those.  There is definitely overlap.

[TeeRick]

21 hours ago, phoenix_dream said:

This thread seems to have strayed a bit into another debate about vaccines.  I know it all relates, but I wanted to get back to commenting on the original article.  I am not a scientist, nor a medical professional and don't claim otherwise.  But as a reasonably intelligent person (or so I've been told) I can glean some theories based on information I've read from the professionals.  

 

Does anyone really know if we are nearing herd immunity?  The answer is no.  I don't know.  You don't know.  But is it possible (if perhaps not yet to be considered likely)?  I think that answer is yes. 

 

Point one - many experts have stated that they feel the real infection rate is considerably higher than the known rate for many reasons - key among them reduced access to testing in the beginning months and asymptomatic cases.  Point two - the majority of the asymptomatic cases seem to be in younger people, who let's be honest, were generally less restrictive in their behaviors than many adults (I know there are exceptions - I'm saying generally).   Point three - the rates across the US in most (or is it all?) states have been dropping considerably in the past month.  A decline from a holiday surge?  Perhaps some of it is that.  Or perhaps some of it is due to post-Covid immunity as well as vaccinations.  Point four - Where were the Covid  cases most identified and logged?  In people who got very sick or died from the virus - in a large percentage of cases (I know not all), these were people in long term care facilities or others 65+.  Who were the first people to get the vaccinations?  That group (again, not all, but generally speaking).  

 

I know anyone can (and no doubt will) argue any one or all these points.  But I think there is some logic to them.  IMHO the biggest unknown in whether we will soon near herd immunity relates to whether the vaccines will continue to be efficient against variants.  It's too soon to tell.  The other unknown is how long immunity truly lasts.  It's been a year, and we have not heard of many cases of reinfection.  So while the experts are only willing to put their necks on the line (understandably) and estimate 3 months, the reality is that this is more than likely a very conservative estimate.  

Thanks phoenix and I will not argue with your points.  Good ones.  I have posted before that herd immunity is no doubt the "big goal" but maybe it is focused on too much right now.  The realistic goal should really be a world where COVID is much less severe (even with variants) with few hospitalizations and even fewer deaths.  That is achievable.  True herd immunity might always be just beyond our reach with this virus.

[Baron Barracuda]

On CNBC this morning Dr. Gottlieb was asked about the herd immunity article.  He was complimentary towards the author and didn't seem to have any real issues with it other than the March timing  

[UnorigionalName]

1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

Thanks phoenix and I will not argue with your points.  Good ones.  I have posted before that herd immunity is no doubt the "big goal" but maybe it is focused on too much right now.  The realistic goal should really be a world where COVID is much less severe (even with variants) with few hospitalizations and even fewer deaths.  That is achievable.  True herd immunity might always be just beyond our reach with this virus.

 

With the amount of anti-vaxxers in the US (just look at these forums), and with the upwards revision of estimated R0, and with more infectious strains, I'm pretty sure we will never reach herd immunity status.  My only hope is that the mRNA vaccine will make the chance I will have permanent side effects of infection minimal (but  it may not be the case)...

 

People understand right, that with natural immunity, you can never get rid of the disease; you can never get above the necessary herd immunity level.  Since as the number of susceptible people go down, the rate of transmission goes down until it reaches a steady state.  True you won't have huge health care system debilitating flares, but the virus will circulate permanently. That's why we have all these viruses that hang around for all of human history.  Only a couple have disappeared and it's 100% due to vaccination, not natural immunity.

 

So given upwards R0 revisions to 6-10, you would need something like 90-95% of the population vaccinated... Not happening.

[Arizona Wildcat]

15 hours ago, Oville said:

Actually it’s 21,500,000 people of which 4,000,000+ are over age 65.  We do need to wait our turn but, unlike other states, it is not being controlled by one source.  In my county you can get appointments from the county online, usually less than 30-45minutes before there are gone and haven’t been available since Feb 1.  Publix has appointments, again on line, at 6:00am now 7:00am and all gone in 30-40 minutes.  The cities also have appointments but only available to city residents.  With the exception of Publix no appointments have been available since Feb 1 for first time shots and Publix is only taking 2nd shot appointments and hasn’t for a week.

We understand we will eventually going to get the vaccine but it is hard to read people saying it’s not a problem.

 

Keeping safe in Naples, Fl., Katie

 

You do understand that deliveries were shut on FedEx for a week and Pfizer and Moderna both had to slow production first 2 weeks of February to expand production facilities both in USA and Europe.

5 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

On CNBC this morning Dr. Gottlieb was asked about the herd immunity article.  He was complimentary towards the author and didn't seem to have any real issues with it other than the March timing  

Which article?  PBS had an interview with him where the NYT article was mentioned.  He agreed with their timeline of fall to early 2022 depending on the 9 scenarios given in that article.  Thought 3 scenarios of earlier herd immunity not realistic.

[ECCruise]

I think it needs to be remembered that no cruise line is going to make decisions on sailing (and parameters) on one Doctor's (or 20 Doctors') opinions of "herd immunity."

[TeeRick]

6 minutes ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

With the amount of anti-vaxxers in the US (just look at these forums), and with the upwards revision of estimated R0, and with more infectious strains, I'm pretty sure we will never reach herd immunity status.  My only hope is that the mRNA vaccine will make the chance I will have permanent side effects of infection minimal (but  it may not be the case)...

 

People understand right, that with natural immunity, you can never get rid of the disease; you can never get above the necessary herd immunity level.  Since as the number of susceptible people go down, the rate of transmission goes down until it reaches a steady state.  True you won't have huge health care system debilitating flares, but the virus will circulate permanently. That's why we have all these viruses that hang around for all of human history.  Only a couple have disappeared and it's 100% due to vaccination, not natural immunity.

 

So given upwards R0 revisions to 6-10, you would need something like 90-95% of the population vaccinated... Not happening.

We do agree on this.  That is why all of the media focus on achieving herd immunity, as evidenced by the discussions here on CC, are so misleading.  Everybody wants to believe that there will be a magic date and time when we "achieve herd immunity" but almost nobody understands or wants to understand what an impossible goal that is to base our hopes and dreams of normalcy.  The virus is not going away.  Our ideas of herd immunity should be switched to "managed immunity".  Like all other respiratory viruses.  If we for the most part avoid severe cases and deaths, we should be able to live normal lives.  The vaccines will get us to this achievable goal.

[broberts]

I think people have latched on to "herd immunity" in the mistaken belief that it means the eradication of covid-19. 

 

As far as I know there is still no conclusive data to suggest that herd immunity is even possible with this virus. Even if it is, it is likely still going to affect a not insignificant number of people every year.

[jagoffee]

5 hours ago, amyr said:

The article I linked said that taking the vaccine out of the equation, 200 million of us (roughly 60%) would have had to have had the virus, whether full blown or asymptomatic for herd immunity.  The CDC thinks that because we haven't tested very well here in the US, it might be as many as 1 in 4 Americans have actually been infected.  That's still only 82 million people, and that's an educated guess at the very high end of who could have resistance.  They also worry that the resistance fades somewhere between 3 and 6 months, so who knows if the people that got infected in March and April aren't running to the end of their immunity?  That's something we probably won't understand for years yet.  And then there's the variants.

So, if 25 percent of the population has had it, and if they all still have resistance, and since 11 percent of Americans have had their first dose, we're still a ways away.  Vaccination is ramping up, though, so hopefully we'll really start humming along. 

Florida puts out a daily chart of vaccination numbers broken down by age, race, ethnicity, and county.  Today's chart shows that 1,388,919 Floridians are 'series completed' and I imagine most states are at about the same percentage, or near it anyway.   If any of you Floridians are interested and haven't seen it, here it is:  Florida Vaccine Report

 

 

 

Thanks.  Very interesting.  You can certainly see the results of the focus on the elderly, which should result in a significant reductions in deaths.

[amyr]

48 minutes ago, broberts said:

I think people have latched on to "herd immunity" in the mistaken belief that it means the eradication of covid-19. 

 

As far as I know there is still no conclusive data to suggest that herd immunity is even possible with this virus. Even if it is, it is likely still going to affect a not insignificant number of people every year.

I think this is probably the case.  Herd immunity, or what we think herd immunity is, will probably get us to something more akin to a seasonal flu than measles or smallpox.  I hope that's not true, but I think it is. 

[davekathy]

[4774Papa]

Clearly, there are many opinions on when herd immunity will be reached, if at all.  Still, once a significant percentage of the population is vaccinated, especially the elderly and people with serious health issues, this should be time to return to some degree of normalcy.   People that refuse vaccination will be at more risk and we may have to be vaccinated every year, however the extreme shutdowns cannot endure forever.  The USA and other countries can't keep helicoptering money, likely leading to serious inflation, perhaps hyperinflation.  

 

Local teachers here in our area tell me that while about 80% of our kids are opting to return to in-school learning, a small percentage of kids are not in class or participating in  distance learning at all.   In many states no kids have been in class for a year.   Catching up will be very hard.   Many of these kids may be future dropouts.  Also, many small businesses have failed and millions are still unemployed due to shutdowns.  

[TeeRick]

17 hours ago, amyr said:

I think this is probably the case.  Herd immunity, or what we think herd immunity is, will probably get us to something more akin to a seasonal flu than measles or smallpox.  I hope that's not true, but I think it is. 

Hopefully not Smallpox- officially declared eradicated in 1980 by WHO.😀  But of course one of the greatest victories of vaccines (along with Polio). 

Edited February 23, 2021 by TeeRick