The Debbie Downers have been right all along

[KirkNC]

11 hours ago, expectGREATthings said:

I think there's a game changer in the works being a therapeudic called Molnupiravir. It's a five day set of pills similar to how you'd take a Z-Pak. It's been shown to stop the virus in Covid positive patients. It's possible that it could be released in as little as six months. The ships could carry this in the case of urgent need. So there's another glimmer of hope. As far as where will the ships be able to go, that's a great question. Maybe their private islands and more sea days? That's a tough question. But really only time will tell.

 

Michael

That would be a good development.

[ontheweb]

11 hours ago, kazu said:

 

I don’t believe my TA has been paid by HAL on any cancelled cruises and of course if they are cancelled before final payment (or we cancel), there is no payment.

 

I’m just glad she is hanging in.

My TA is the president of his agency. He did not know how long he could hang on. Lots of work with cancellations and reschedules and no income.

[ontheweb]

48 minutes ago, KirkNC said:

That would be a good development.

Understatement---that would be an EXCELLENT development.

[fatcat04]

1 hour ago, Crazy For Cats said:

I saw this report as well over the weekend.  I found it challenging to find a link that explained so I didn’t post about it.  I do think that this is a game changer as well.

I read about this new drug a few days ago too. Here is an article with some details. 

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/merck-has-better-luck-second-covid-drug-attempt-as-it-sees-a-positive-early-molnupiravir

 

fta: Molnupiravir (formerly EIDD-2801) works as an oral nucleoside analog that has shown broad-spectrum activity against RNA viruses, including influenza and coronaviruses like SARS and MERS.

[summer slope]

20 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

My TA is the president of his agency. He did not know how long he could hang on. Lots of work with cancellations and reschedules and no income.

My TA’s company closed. Sad. But I have a wonderful PCC through HAL now.

[dfish]

1 hour ago, Crazy For Cats said:

I saw this report as well over the weekend.  I found it challenging to find a link that explained so I didn’t post about it.  I do think that this is a game changer as well.

Here's one:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-pill-shows-promise-in-preliminary-testing-11615006861

 

And another:

https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-19-pill-preliminary-testing-dr-marc-siegel

[terrydtx]

On 3/9/2021 at 2:16 PM, oaktreerb said:

The Debbie Divas, on the other hand,  are an optimistic bunch and they want to be booked and ready to sail when things turn around!    They also have enough money to gamble on the future of cruising.

I will join you, we have 2 September cruises booked and are ready if cruising in Europe resumes before then.

[KroozNut]

On 3/9/2021 at 11:08 AM, wesport said:

I always thought that people on cruise critic that keep saying no cruising in 2021 were so pessimistic. IMHO I thing cruise lines know exactly when they will restart, and continue taking deposits and final payments on cruises that will never sail. Me, being optimistic, continued booking cruises that continue to be cancelled(my bad). Now I believe it is a cash flow scheme to help the cruise lines stay afloat. And to get travel agents their commission when final is made.  Why not rip the band aid off and restart in 2022 rather than leaving all these customers upset. 

 

Last I heard, no one is twisting anybody's arms to book 2021 cruises that likely will not sail.

[KroozNut]

On 3/9/2021 at 12:40 PM, kangforpres said:

70% of Americans vaccinated by the end of July and 85% by September. Those are the herd immunity goals..

 

Herd immunity numbers depend on who you're talking to, and vary anywhere between 20-70%.

[KroozNut]

14 hours ago, Mary229 said:

She recommended that I not take the FCC instead opt for the refund.  

Did she offer any rationale for this? To me, this is more important than merely a 'recommendation' without any information to support the recommendation.

[Mary229]

16 minutes ago, KroozNut said:

Did she offer any rationale for this? To me, this is more important than merely a 'recommendation' without any information to support the recommendation.

She felt I shouldn't risk the money with no incentives.  Plain and simple.   Then they doubled my FCC and added an OBC and a few other perks, then I think she felt that perhaps the risk was worthwhile

[Crazy For Cats]

3 hours ago, dfish said:

Here's one:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-pill-shows-promise-in-preliminary-testing-11615006861

 

And another:

https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-19-pill-preliminary-testing-dr-marc-siegel

Thanks.  I saw the fox news article but wanted a second source.  

[drowelf]

18 hours ago, kazu said:

 

I don’t believe my TA has been paid by HAL on any cancelled cruises and of course if they are cancelled before final payment (or we cancel), there is no payment.

 

I’m just glad she is hanging in.

I know mine has not had any significant income over the last year. Fortunately she has a DH who has a  job, so while things are not as good as they could be, they are not hurting too bad. 

[StLouisCruisers]

Our agent is a top agent with many, many clients.  She mentioned a week or so ago when our 2021 Princess cruise from Southampton was cancelled that she's had $10,000,000 worth of bookings cancelled this past year.  I can't imagine how she can stay in business.  

[rkacruiser]

23 hours ago, expectGREATthings said:

I think there's a game changer in the works being a therapeudic called Molnupiravir.

 

I had a dental appoint on Monday of this week and asked my dentist if he had received the vaccine yet.  I was surprised when he said he was not going to receive the vaccine.  He mentioned his 3 main reasons, two of which I thought were reasonable.  He mentioned some type of therapeudic  that was effective if one needed to take it, but he did not mention his name.  Maybe this was the one.  

 

Because of his 3rd reason for not taking the vaccine seems so unreasonable to me, I have doubt about what he "thinks he knows" about this virus, the vaccine, as well as this new "medicine".  

[cbr663]

On 3/9/2021 at 5:56 PM, iancal said:

The covid numbers tell the story.  They continue to tell the story.  Easy to find each country’s weekly numbers on the wd.
 

There is not very much mystery  to the resumption of cruises if one considers these numbers, the trends, the plateaus, etc,  and don’t focus on the percentages being vaccinated in any one country.

 

 

The COVID numbers do indeed tell the story.

 

I am Canadian and in the past 2 days I have read 3 stories of COVID outbreaks in long term care homes where residents were vaccinated.  The response to these outbreaks has been the same - restrictions, residents confined to their rooms and more of the same.

 

We can have all the vaccines that we want but until we see a global change to the response of cases then I see very little reason to believe that a cruise ship will sail soon.

[cbr663]

32 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

I had a dental appoint on Monday of this week and asked my dentist if he had received the vaccine yet.  I was surprised when he said he was not going to receive the vaccine.  He mentioned his 3 main reasons, two of which I thought were reasonable.  He mentioned some type of therapeudic  that was effective if one needed to take it, but he did not mention his name.  Maybe this was the one.  

 

Because of his 3rd reason for not taking the vaccine seems so unreasonable to me, I have doubt about what he "thinks he knows" about this virus, the vaccine, as well as this new "medicine".  

Not surprising that health officials are not getting the vaccine.

 

A major hospital in my city reported today that 20% of its eligible front line employees chose not to vaccinate.  I read another report yesterday of an outbreak at a long term care residence where all residents were vaccinated but ⅓ of front line employees were not.

 

News stories of the number of doses being administered really don't tell us much.  We really need to know participation rates in key populations, especially front line workers.

[KroozNut]

36 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

I had a dental appoint on Monday of this week and asked my dentist if he had received the vaccine yet.  I was surprised when he said he was not going to receive the vaccine.  He mentioned his 3 main reasons, two of which I thought were reasonable.  He mentioned some type of therapeudic  that was effective if one needed to take it, but he did not mention his name.  Maybe this was the one.  

 

Because of his 3rd reason for not taking the vaccine seems so unreasonable to me, I have doubt about what he "thinks he knows" about this virus, the vaccine, as well as this new "medicine".  

 

Time to think about a new dentist..

[iancal]

IT is not about who was right, who was wrong.

 

It has always been about the numbers. 

 

The rhetoric is just noise level static designed to take our eyes and our attention off the covid numbers, the covid trends, and what they really mean.

Edited March 12, 2021 by iancal

[rkacruiser]

56 minutes ago, KroozNut said:

 

Time to think about a new dentist..

 

I wonder.  My PCP and I need to have a conversation about this during my next visit.  But, before doing so, I need to do more research about my dentist's concern.  

 

49 minutes ago, iancal said:

IT is not about who was right, who was wrong.

 

It has always been about the numbers. 

 

The rhetoric is just noise level static designed to take our eyes and our attention off the covid numbers, the covid trends, and what they really mean.

 

And even for those of us who are well educated, which includes the person included in this post and you,  discerning the proper course one ought to take during our lives has not been--and continues to be--not easy.  

 

I am fully vaccinated.  I need to have a blood test taken after fasting for a non-Covid test.  Visiting a restaurant for breakfast after having that done--which, if I would do so, would be the first indoor dining that I have had since March 11, 2020--ought I take the chance by doing so?  

 

I am concerned that it's not known if one can acquire the virus and spread it without knowingly doing so even if one is properly vaccinated.  

 

Staying in my bubble has been successful for me.  Ought not should it continue?  

[HappyInVan]

It's no fun being right when the governments aren't willing to change direction. We can see the crash coming. But, the powers-that-be are waiting for the crash to lock the place down, AGAIN.🙄

 

Care homes are a good analogy for the closed environment of a cruise ship.

 

In British Columbia, the first care home in Kelowna (Cottonwood Care Centre) to be vax (in January) has had a large outbreak this month. 82% of the residents received vax, many had the double dose. But, only 65% of the staff were vax.

 

Guess how the disease got into the home. Bottom line: 8 out of 12 of the infected had been vax.

 

That works out to 3% of the vaccinated were infected (so far). This is in a facility that's supposed to practice tight safety protocol.🙄

 

The governments should just tell the truth. That covid will still circulate if vax is less than 90%. That the vaccinated can be infected. Particularly by the vax-resistant variants.

 

That safety protocols are needed as long as the pandemic continues. Outbreaks will still occur until the young people are vax...

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-pub-night-300-cases-covid-19-1.5930516

 

Why do you think that CCL has been raising money at junk bond rates since last April? ☢️

 

Governments should offer a real choice to the public. Follow the Australasia model. End the epidemic with a zero-covid strategy. Or, do the same things again and again. Open and close. Ease and tighten. Hope that covid goes away.

 

Edited March 12, 2021 by HappyInVan

[BobbiSox]

On 3/9/2021 at 3:40 PM, kangforpres said:

I just heard on the news, model projections show 70% of Americans vaccinated by the end of July and 85% by September. Those are the herd immunity goals, So I still think there will be cruising this year.

 

-Paul.

That's fine for Americans, but what about the rest of the world? I don't sail exclusively in America!

 

[Mary229]

24 minutes ago, BobbiSox said:

That's fine for Americans, but what about the rest of the world? I don't sail exclusively in America!

 

It is pretty easy to search foreign sources of news to find out what is going on outside of the US.  There are more vaccines than those created in Western Europe and the US.

[Hlitner]

8 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

It's no fun being right when the governments aren't willing to change direction. We can see the crash coming. But, the powers-that-be are waiting for the crash to lock the place down, AGAIN.🙄

 

Care homes are a good analogy for the closed environment of a cruise ship.

 

In British Columbia, the first care home in Kelowna (Cottonwood Care Centre) to be vax (in January) has had a large outbreak this month. 82% of the residents received vax, many had the double dose. But, only 65% of the staff were vax.

 

Guess how the disease got into the home. Bottom line: 8 out of 12 of the infected had been vax.

 

That works out to 3% of the vaccinated were infected (so far). This is in a facility that's supposed to practice tight safety protocol.🙄

 

The governments should just tell the truth. That covid will still circulate if vax is less than 90%. That the vaccinated can be infected. Particularly by the vax-resistant variants.

 

That safety protocols are needed as long as the pandemic continues. Outbreaks will still occur until the young people are vax...

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-pub-night-300-cases-covid-19-1.5930516

 

Why do you think that CCL has been raising money at junk bond rates since last April? ☢️

 

Governments should offer a real choice to the public. Follow the Australasia model. End the epidemic with a zero-covid strategy. Or, do the same things again and again. Open and close. Ease and tighten. Hope that covid goes away.

 

I will not argue with you about the efficacy of the various vaccine because a lifetime working in the healthcare industry taught me not to waste my time with skeptics.  That being said, both the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are among the effective vaccines every brought to market but there is a problem with a lot of statistics.   The antibodies generated by these vaccines do not reach their peak until at least 2 weeks after the 2nd shot.  During the period from the first shot until 2 weeks after the 2nd shot folks are still pretty vulnerable to COVID (although their risk is reduced with time).  Most folks that have been reported to have caught COVID after vaccination were not fully protected (i.e. they got COVID prior to 2 weeks after the 2nd shot).     Recent statistics based on millions of Pfizer vaccinations in the US support an efficacy of around 97% (even higher then originally reported).  None of the rare cases that developed after vaccination (beyond the 2 week waiting period) were serious or involved hospitalization.  That is a truly remarkable statistic.  

 

There is another ugly truth about viruses such as COVID.  It is very unlikely that it will ever be eliminated and there will never be zero cases for any length of time.  The immunity (both natural and vaccine related) diminishes over time and there will never be 100% compliance with vaccine booster schedules.  It is also impossible to achieve a 100% vaccinated worldwide population so COVID will continue to thrive just like the various influenza viruses continue to thrive.   The world will have to learn how to live with COVID just like we live with many other diseases.  But the availability of vaccines and evolving treatments should make COVID manageable.  It is already being predicted that the long term effects of all the lockdowns will likely cause more issues then the actual virus in terms of mental health, deferred medical treatment for other serious problems (i.e. cancer, heart disease, etc), long term mental and socialization problems for children who have been shut off from education and socialization, etc.   In one sense the cure may be worse then the disease.

 

Hank

 

Hank

[chisoxfan]

Gee, how could anyone be skeptical of government, Big Pharma, or our highest in cost not so high performance health care system. 

Anyway without getting into that pointless argument, as a soon to be retired couple who love cruising,

the reality for us remains that a cruise ship has to be the most challenging environment conceivable to responsibly prevent COVID (or other disease transmission).  Until the cruise experience is clearly defined and attractive again for us (I cannot imagine this happening before mid 2022) we will sadly not gamble on cruises. 

The issue for us is not only when things open (restaurants, sporting events, concerts) but how much fun can be experienced wearing a mask, maintaining distance, going through med protocols, and potentially facing closed venues, etc.

Sorry to continue as a Debbie Downer but we really did think things could have successfully resumed

this year when COVID began last year.