vaccine required?

[ebeluga]

2 hours ago, voljeep said:

My wife and I just had ( and by just I mean in the last 30 minutes ) about whether she/we would cruise if vaccines are NOT required for all PASSENGERS ... the verdict was "undecided" at this point - still waiting on the protocols and procedures about what happens if there is an outbreak on the ship in regards to being able to homeport, get off ship and return home without quarantine.

This language is in the booking email dated yesterday, “if a threshold of COVID-19 is detected on board the ship, the voyage will be ended, the ship will return to the port of embarkation, and your subsequent travel home may be restricted or delayed. Health and safety protocols, guest conduct rules, and regional travel restrictions vary by ship and destination, and are subject to change without notice.“

 

 

Now that I am vaccinated and when everyone in the US can have access to vaccine, I want to be sure no matter what the protocols are, my cruise will not be disrupted and the home port will let the ship disembark for me to go home even if there are positive cases on board since theoretically, no more people should die or be hospitalized due to COVID solely than from flu after vaccination!  Short of that, I won’t be making any final payment!

[K.T.B.]

15 hours ago, AZjohn said:

Can you please provide a link with this data?
Thanks

 

This may not be what want to see or read, but there's a huge thread (4,700+ replies) on the Celebrity side of the board called "Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?" and there are many people who are medically trained and have the knowledge to explain what efficacy is.  They also supplied many informed opinions on the vaccines as they were being developed.  IMO, it's probably THE best thread on CC's forums in discussing Covid vaccines and their implications of needing them for travel.

 

If you want to go through it to get whatever info you need, here's the LINK.  But I can tell you right now what nocl said is 100% accurate, if only because of all the knowledge I got from that thread.  From people I readily admit are far more learned in this stuff than I ever will be.  99% of what I have gleaned from vaccines and efficacy I got from there.  So enjoy!

[Steelers36]

12 minutes ago, ebeluga said:

This language is in the booking email dated yesterday, “if a threshold of COVID-19 is detected on board the ship, the voyage will be ended, the ship will return to the port of embarkation, and your subsequent travel home may be restricted or delayed. Health and safety protocols, guest conduct rules, and regional travel restrictions vary by ship and destination, and are subject to change without notice.“

 

 

Now that I am vaccinated and when everyone in the US can have access to vaccine, I want to be sure no matter what the protocols are, my cruise will not be disrupted and the home port will let the ship disembark for me to go home even if there are positive cases on board since theoretically, no more people should die or be hospitalized due to COVID solely than from flu after vaccination!  Short of that, I won’t be making any final payment!

The threshold is undefined and that is a glaring omission.  I am also thinking this is old wording and we don't know what the protocols will be once sailing is actually underway again.  As you will know, things are FAR from defined and settled with CDC.

 

[ebeluga]

3 minutes ago, Steelers36 said:

The threshold is undefined and that is a glaring omission.  I am also thinking this is old wording and we don't know what the protocols will be once sailing is actually underway again.  As you will know, things are FAR from defined and settled with CDC.

 

Well, if after vaccination and with plentiful of access to vaccine, COVID doesn’t kill or hospitalize people any more so than flu or any upper respiratory diseases, and if the ships are operating in US water, itineraries are not disrupted by upper respiratory diseases outbreaks on ships, so why should they be interrupted by COVID?

[Steelers36]

2 minutes ago, ebeluga said:

Well, if after vaccination and with plentiful of access to vaccine, COVID doesn’t kill or hospitalize people any more so than flu or any upper respiratory diseases, and if the ships are operating in US water, itineraries are not disrupted by upper respiratory diseases outbreaks on ships, so why should they be interrupted by COVID?

I agree with you 110%.  I would not get worked up over that wording until all the info about cruising from/to USA protocols is agreed on and released.

 

[nocl]

4 hours ago, rabin1 said:

Would age have anything to do with this? I know when the vaccines started our Governor choose to give the vaccines to seniors first. Please don't bash DeSantis it is not about him my statement. We have a lot more seniors and they seem to be in the majority of those that died. I am NOT saying others don't die. I am asking this because you are one of the few on this site that seems to give good info.

Thanks

Kathy

It is clear that elderly has less effective immune systems.  It is also clear that Covid19 hit the elderly far worse than younger demographics.

 

 

However when it comes to cruise ships the problem is really not age related.  Anyone that has been on several cruises, especially those over 10 days or so.  By the end of the trip you often have seen some URI or another getting passed around the ship.  Many refer to it as cruise crud.

 

 

[voljeep]

5 minutes ago, nocl said:

It is clear that elderly has less effective immune systems.  It is also clear that Covid19 hit the elderly far worse than younger demographics.

 

 

However when it comes to cruise ships the problem is really not age related.  Anyone that has been on several cruises, especially those over 10 days or so.  By the end of the trip you often have seen some URI or another getting passed around the ship.  Many refer to it as cruise crud.

 

 

so what do you think if a vaccine will be required or not when sailing(s) resume ?

[nocl]

Just now, voljeep said:

so what do you think if a vaccine will be required or not when sailing(s) resume ?

I think it should be.

 

The cruise lines are saying they will do whatever the countries require.  But in most cases will not commit to the requirement for US cruises.

 

The CDC has strongly recommended vaccination for crew and passengers but cannot go beyond that until the vaccines go beyond EUA into full approval status.

 

So based upon that the logic would indicate that if the US does not require it most cruise lines will not either.

 

The question yet to be answered is will the cruise lines actually submit a detailed plan to the CDC and include vaccination as part of that plan.  At this point who knows because there are no announcements or media reports of any such plan actually being submitted for review or approval.

 

If the cruise lines somehow were to slip out from CDC over sight then no I do not believe that they would require vaccination unless passengers refused to book and canceled in overwhelming numbers.

[voljeep]

  

10 minutes ago, nocl said:

I think it should be.

agree with this and also your last paragraph

 

well stated 

[Daniel A]

34 minutes ago, nocl said:

I think it should be.

 

The cruise lines are saying they will do whatever the countries require.  But in most cases will not commit to the requirement for US cruises.

 

The CDC has strongly recommended vaccination for crew and passengers but cannot go beyond that until the vaccines go beyond EUA into full approval status.

 

So based upon that the logic would indicate that if the US does not require it most cruise lines will not either.

 

The question yet to be answered is will the cruise lines actually submit a detailed plan to the CDC and include vaccination as part of that plan.  At this point who knows because there are no announcements or media reports of any such plan actually being submitted for review or approval.

 

If the cruise lines somehow were to slip out from CDC over sight then no I do not believe that they would require vaccination unless passengers refused to book and canceled in overwhelming numbers.

I agree wholeheartedly with your post.  I, for one won't be on any ships in the near future, vaccine or not.  One would think the lines would rush to put vaccinated cruises only forward as an assurance that cruising is once again safe...

[nocl]

1 minute ago, Daniel A said:

I agree wholeheartedly with your post.  I, for one won't be on any ships in the near future, vaccine or not.  One would think the lines would rush to put vaccinated cruises only forward as an assurance that cruising is once again safe...

There is an interesting paper that I read.  It talks about the evolution of cruise lines from the original national based lines, that were incorporated and location in their home countries,  into the large conglomerates.  In the transition they have tended to make decision that have reduced accountability as much as they possibly could.  They established their corporate home in countries that have very limited regulation and enforcement.  They have registered their ships in countries that has the least requirements and enforcement.  They have used the nature of maritime law to minimize the ability of any country to impact their business (by regulation or taxation) and have fought kicking and screaming (lobbying, PR campaigns) when there have been serious efforts to apply national law to them.

 

Logically one would think that they would embrace the path that CDC has put forth to get back cruising again and to require vaccination to make sure that their passengers are safe.

 

Instead I think that they are playing the long game and will not willingly cooperate with anything that has the hint of a country extending its regulations into their  domain.  That if they do it once then some of that intrusion may end up being permanent and may encourage other countries to do so as well.

 

That is why I am trying to watch what MSC does.  While they are becoming a player due to their size they are still basically an Italian company (though they are registered now in Switzerland) so they have less of a track record. 

 

 

[Daniel A]

3 hours ago, nocl said:

The cruise lines are saying they will do whatever the countries require.  But in most cases will not commit to the requirement for US cruises.

 

The CDC has strongly recommended vaccination for crew and passengers but cannot go beyond that until the vaccines go beyond EUA into full approval status.

 

So based upon that the logic would indicate that if the US does not require it most cruise lines will not either.

 

The question yet to be answered is will the cruise lines actually submit a detailed plan to the CDC and include vaccination as part of that plan.  At this point who knows because there are no announcements or media reports of any such plan actually being submitted for review or approval.

 

If the cruise lines somehow were to slip out from CDC over sight then no I do not believe that they would require vaccination unless passengers refused to book and canceled in overwhelming numbers.

 

I am beginning to have a theory percolating in my grey matter.  CDC strongly encourages vaccinations for crew and PAX.  The CDC sets up very stringent standards that do not incorporate vaccines.  The CDC relaxes some of those standards if presented with a plan from a cruise line in which the line legally commits to all souls on board being vaccinated thus making a number of the requirements a moot point.

 

The cruise line cannot buy Covid-19 vaccines as they are all under prior contracts with various governments and so must rely on crew to be vaccinated by their home countries.  The number of experienced cruise ship crewmembers who are fully vaccinated is not going to be a very large number compared to the number of vacancies needing to be filled.  The laws of supply and demand kick in and fully vaccinated, experienced crew personnel become very valuable assets commanding significantly higher wages than before.  This could be what the cruise lines may be balking at, not vaccinated passengers, but getting into bidding wars for vaccinated crews.  I'm not saying this is clearly the issue, but it would make sense that this would be a significant concern for the industry.

[nocl]

32 minutes ago, Daniel A said:

 

I am beginning to have a theory percolating in my grey matter.  CDC strongly encourages vaccinations for crew and PAX.  The CDC sets up very stringent standards that do not incorporate vaccines.  The CDC relaxes some of those standards if presented with a plan from a cruise line in which the line legally commits to all souls on board being vaccinated thus making a number of the requirements a moot point.

 

The cruise line cannot buy Covid-19 vaccines as they are all under prior contracts with various governments and so must rely on crew to be vaccinated by their home countries.  The number of experienced cruise ship crewmembers who are fully vaccinated is not going to be a very large number compared to the number of vacancies needing to be filled.  The laws of supply and demand kick in and fully vaccinated, experienced crew personnel become very valuable assets commanding significantly higher wages than before.  This could be what the cruise lines may be balking at, not vaccinated passengers, but getting into bidding wars for vaccinated crews.  I'm not saying this is clearly the issue, but it would make sense that this would be a significant concern for the industry.

The US will soon be swimming in vaccine.  By mid summer, even without J&J and I expect they will have the pause released when the Vaccine advisory board meets next week though probably for limited demographics.  Should be not problem getting crews vaccinated in US by late summer.

 

The vaccine being used in many of the crews home countries would not meet the requirements to be considered to be an approved vaccine in US (not approved by either FDA or WHO).

 

 

[Redwing55]

22 hours ago, nocl said:

I would not call it a petri dish more of an air borne blender.

 

The problem with cruise ships, especially with airborne transmission according to some papers I have read is:

 

1. Density - not only of passengers but especially of crew.  Cruise ship density is higher than just about any other place including prisons, nursing homes, etc.

 

2. The amount of inside common space vs the number of people inside that space - Lots of people occupying relatively small inside common spaces

 

3. The amount of time spent in common inside spaces including dining rooms, lounges and theaters. Many of the same activities limited on land

 

4. Air exchanges - With many of the inside space the air flow is across the room  will carry virus among people in the same room or space.  You can inject totally clean air but if that air picks up virus from one person to another.  You can reduce this by increase the air exchanges.  An air plane for example completed changes the air every 5 minutes and used a ceiling to floor flow pattern that pull virus down away from faces.  Supposedly they have made changes to increase the air exchange rate in public spaces to be similar to airliners, but probably not improved the air flow patterns.

 

6. The number of contacts with crew and passengers.  Think about the cruise you have been on and the number of different people you come in contact with for both short duration (passing in a hall way, standing watching a demo or some other activity, entering leaving a venue. Embarkation, disembarkation, going on excursions, etc.  Especially when you consider the social nature of cruising 

 

7. Now combine all of that in for a length of time where an illness can incubate.  It is not uncommon to be on cruises where you get quick incubation upper respiratory infections start showing  3 or 4 days into a cruise.  With Covid the worst situations involved either an infection that started on a previous cruise and then blossomed during the following cruise (Hurtigruten is a good example with the infection becoming widespread on the second 7 day cruise after the infection started on the 1st cruise) or during a long duration cruise.  Time to incubated and then get passed on during the constant mixing of normal cruise life.

 

If you are interested in some of the studies I can post some links.

 

The best way to protect cruise ships is to keep it off of the ships.

I too would like to see the studies.  Your point #4 seems really off the mark.  Cruises are updating the ventilation systems and are more efficient than most hotels.  As for your common spaces, I've only cruised about 15 times, but although there are times when it's a bit crowded... exiting/entering events, I found most times that I didn't wouldn't have to try much at all to social distance myself.  And frankly, being vaccinated, I don't think that's all the necessary.  So how many greater than 15 minute periods will one be shoulder to shoulder with another guest?  

 

And keep in mind, these vessels are on water and moving, so air movement is typically quite high to start with.  Look at worst case that happened with a few ships when things just began.  Isolating the few passengers would have made significant impacts (off the ships).  Instead they just kept them all together in mostly quiet environments (on the ships).

 

But I will defer to some studies.  Though I don't agree that a ship is the worst place to be.... I actually believe it's one of the better places to be.  It has more control than most other locations.. other than a plane. (though who knows what is in the terminal itself.)

[nocl]

43 minutes ago, Redwing55 said:

I too would like to see the studies.  Your point #4 seems really off the mark.  Cruises are updating the ventilation systems and are more efficient than most hotels.  As for your common spaces, I've only cruised about 15 times, but although there are times when it's a bit crowded... exiting/entering events, I found most times that I didn't wouldn't have to try much at all to social distance myself.  And frankly, being vaccinated, I don't think that's all the necessary.  So how many greater than 15 minute periods will one be shoulder to shoulder with another guest?  

 

And keep in mind, these vessels are on water and moving, so air movement is typically quite high to start with.  Look at worst case that happened with a few ships when things just began.  Isolating the few passengers would have made significant impacts (off the ships).  Instead they just kept them all together in mostly quiet environments (on the ships).

 

But I will defer to some studies.  Though I don't agree that a ship is the worst place to be.... I actually believe it's one of the better places to be.  It has more control than most other locations.. other than a plane. (though who knows what is in the terminal itself.)

Except you do not need to be shoulder to shoulder for 15 minutes.  That view was more when they were thinking droplets not aerosols.

 

Cruise ships have updated their systems to get an exchange every 5 minutes.  However you still have the issue with room volume, vent locations (inlet and exhaust) etc.  You can have exchanges every five minutes but if the air flow input the air at one part of the room, carries across the room and exits at the other side and you have an infected individual on earlier in the air stream the aerosols can and will be carried by anyone between them and the exhaust vent.

 

The cruise lines have changed in terms of the amount of fresh air used (their systems can control the percentage of fresh vs recycled) they have now gone to full fresh, which does have a cost component.  What they have not done is to re-engineer the ship to change duct locations and air flow patterns.

 

Here are a few dealing mostly with the issues of aerosol transmission and  density both in terms of number of people and inside common space.  Will get the links to a few more when I have more time. 

 

This is a study dealing with infection rates on the Diamond Princess by modeling infections looking at aerosols.

 

Mechanistic transmission modeling of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess cruise ship demonstrates the importance of aerosol transmission

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/8/e2015482118

 

This one also looking at the Diamond specifically identifies population density 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7107563/

COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: estimating the epidemic potential and effectiveness of public health countermeasures

 

We found that the reproductive number of COVID-19 in the cruise ship situation of 3700 persons confined to a limited space was around 4 times higher than in the epicenter in Wuhan, where  was estimated to have a mean of 3.7.9 Interestingly, a rough estimation of the population per square km on this 18-deck ship is 286 by 62 meters (0.32 km2). Assuming that only 50% of decks are being used, approximately 24 400 persons are confined per km2 on a ship compared to approximately 6000 persons per km2 (9 000 000/1528) in urban Wuhan. This means that the population density was about 4 times higher on the cruise ship.

 

This one I cannot find a free online full copy so I can only link the abstract which is unfortunate since there is some more specific data in the full document

 

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1477893916300680?via%3Dihub

 

Respiratory infections and gastrointestinal illness on a cruise ship: A three-year prospective study

 

[mcrcruiser]

imo this is what we would want  1) all passengers & crew  must have been vaccinated at least 2 weeks before boarding the ship  2) Every one gets tested  prior to boarding  the ship 3) As needed Temperature can be taken during the cruise  4) if any one gets  ill they agreed prior to boarding that they   would remain in their cabin until their temperature returns to normal 

 

 I really don't think that we need to go further than the above    to get cruises  back into  business 

[caribill]

11 hours ago, Steelers36 said:

Also, did the infection occur within two weeks of the shot.  It is supposed to take a good two weeks for immunity to build up.  Perhaps some of that very minuscule number already had Covid-19 virus when they got vaccinated.

 

I read that they were all after the two week period following the last dose.

[seapals2]

Right now we know Covid-19 infections are still present in the community.  I have been vaccinated to protect myself from getting infected.  The next best thing I can do is be in a community that has also been vaccinated. A ship is probably one of the best places to guarantee this.  However presently no one knows how many of the crew are vaccinated so 100% vaccinated community is unlikely.  This means there will have to be some degree of testing.  I can accept a simple daily temperature scan and the continued use of masks in public areas .. however if I am also requested to use daily flow test kits I will find this unacceptable unless I was showing symptoms.  
 

[wowzz]

5 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

As needed Temperature can be taken during the cruise 

Temperature checks, at least in the UK,, have been widely discredited. The "gun" type thermometers are wildly inaccurate ( better described as random number generators) and a high temperature in itself is not an indicator of CV19, or indeed any febrile infection.

[westcliffo]

To the management of Princess Cruise Line: Please make a vaccination a requirement for all staff and passengers on any Princess ship.

Thank you.

[1965]

22 minutes ago, westcliffo said:

To the management of Princess Cruise Line: Please make a vaccination a requirement for all staff and passengers on any Princess ship.

Thank you.

Yes. Please! 

[voljeep]

30 minutes ago, westcliffo said:

To the management of Princess Cruise Line: Please make a vaccination a requirement for all staff and passengers on any Princess ship.

Thank you.

and then Canada will open up a west coast port ( Vancouver / Astoria ) so Princess can resume cruises to Alaska ?

[mcrcruiser]

29 minutes ago, westcliffo said:

To the management of Princess Cruise Line: Please make a vaccination a requirement for all staff and passengers on any Princess ship.

Thank you.

We 2nd your request  with Princess & all other cruise lines  . In addition  using the pre cruise quick test ,at the embarkation pier &   temperature checks ,if some one feels ill &  must remain in their state room until no temperature is detected 

[wowzz]

57 minutes ago, westcliffo said:

To the management of Princess Cruise Line: Please make a vaccination a requirement for all staff and passengers on any Princess ship.

Thank you.

I fail to see how Princess can get their crew vaccinated, when vaccines cannot be purchased privately. 

Yes, in due course the crew will be vaccinated in their home countries,  but you may need to wait until 2022 for that to take place.

[PrincessLuver]

1 hour ago, westcliffo said:

To the management of Princess Cruise Line: Please make a vaccination a requirement for all staff and passengers on any Princess ship.

Thank you.

Agree....this is the only way we will resume cruising with Princess again......even with vaccines these are still uncertain times with Covid-19.