4-2-2021 CDC has issued new guidance

[PelicanBill]

Regarding the discussion on "Essential" and whether the cruise industry qualifies, I invite you to read the CISA guidance, used by almost all states but remarkably not Florida or Texas, all 24 pages of it, that defines workers in essential roles:

 

https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/publications/ECIW_4.0_Guidance_on_Essential_Critical_Infrastructure_Workers_Final3_508_0.pdf 

 

After you have read it tell me again how cruising is essential.

[smokeybandit]

1 minute ago, PelicanBill said:

Cruise lines demonstrated for months they were unable or unwilling to comply with guidance and had continuing sickness aboard far too many ships.

 

What? Which American cruise lines "for months" kept sailing?

[Tolkmit]

3 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

Regarding the discussion on "Essential" and whether the cruise industry qualifies, I invite you to read the CISA guidance, used by almost all states but remarkably not Florida or Texas, all 24 pages of it, that defines workers in essential roles:

 

https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/publications/ECIW_4.0_Guidance_on_Essential_Critical_Infrastructure_Workers_Final3_508_0.pdf 

 

After you have read it tell me again how cruising is essential.

 

There has been literally 0 discussion or suggestion that cruising qualifies as essential though?

[livingonthebeach]

@twangster posted a letter from NCLH to the CDC on another thread, requesting the CDC to lift the CSO by July 4th. I think this makes perfect sense. Here is a snippet:

 

• "NCLH will require that all guests embarking from a U.S. port and/or disembarking to a U.S. port provide proof of having been fully vaccinated with an FDA-, EMA-, or WHO-approved COVID-19 vaccine no less than two weeks prior to their departure date;
• All crew on NCLH vessels will be fully vaccinated with an FDA-, EMA- or WHO-approved COVID-19 vaccine at least two weeks prior to commencement of their duties onboard their assigned vessel;
• NCLH will also incorporate and operationalize the protocols developed by the Healthy Sail Panel (“HSP”), led by former Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services Michael Leavitt and former Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration Dr. Scott Gottlieb. These protocols, include universal testing of guests and crew, combined with required vaccines for all guests and crew, thereby creating a safe, “bubble-like” environment; and
• On or about July 4, 2021, NCLH vessels will begin cruise operations at an initial reduced capacity of 60%, gradually ramping up our fleet departing from U.S. ports and increasing capacity by 20% every 30 days.
• These stringent requirements will remain in place until public health conditions allow for the implementation of more lenient protocols.

We have published the complete SailSAFE health and safety program on our website and attach a copy to this letter.

 

By requiring full and complete vaccinations of guests and crew, we believe our extensive health and safety standards share in the spirit and exceed the intent of the CDC’s existing Conditional Sailing Order (“CSO”) to advance public health goals and to protect guests, crew and the communities we visit. Therefore, we respectfully request the CDC lift the CSO for all NCLH cruise vessels departing from U.S. ports effective July 4, 2021.

 

https://www.nclhltdinvestor.com/news-releases/news-release-details/norwegian-cruise-line-holdings-ltd-submits-plan-cdc-and-will-be

Edited April 5, 2021 by livingonthebeach

[HMR74]

1 hour ago, Tolkmit said:

 

Yeah, actual chain of events is the CDC said "No more sailing, it's too dangerous. Let's work together to find a way to make it safe." Cruise lines said "Sure, we'll come up with a plan to do so." They did, and submitted it to the CDC last September. The CDC responded with "Nope, that's not good enough, but we should keep working together. We have a framework for how you can get back to sailing. Just come up with and submit a plan that will meet our technical requirements, which we will release soon." Six months went by. Then the CDC finally released it's technical requirements last week, which are impossible to meet, and said "Submit plans for how you will do this impossible thing."

 

Some people, like a couple of posters in this thread, take the parts of the framework out of context, which talked about the expectations for cruise lines to submit plans. Ignoring how it was always planned & expected that the CDC would decide upon and release the technical requirements those plans had to meet first.

let me go back and restate how it can work with the Govt . They start with outrageous  position and "negotiate"  from there. It holds all the cards because it has unlimited money and staying power (because , as we know, US  can print to keep its operation going whereas the cruise lines in are over their individual and collective heads with debt as they cannot print ) and you have to satisfy the CDC in this instance.

 

In the first guidance there was even a line in there where it said the panel  agreed the request were too onerous to allow the cruise lines to operate on an ongoing basis as the "guests" would not cruise. True, these are foreign companies, however they do create a lot of jobs  and the us supply chain "was" huge.  And one of the main mandates of the Fed was to create jobs.

 

the news is touting a recovery in air traffic this weekend, but its down 1/3 from 2 years ago as comparisons to a year ago is now with covid low bar.

 

The spin on this from all angles can nauseate you--what ever happened to the KISS method.

 

So why are they singling out the Cruise industry. Because they can. But why? All I can come up with is the environmental aspect, to make an example of the cruise industry.

 

 

 

Edited April 5, 2021 by HMR74

[livingonthebeach]

7 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

Regarding the discussion on "Essential" and whether the cruise industry qualifies, I invite you to read the CISA guidance, used by almost all states but remarkably not Florida or Texas, all 24 pages of it, that defines workers in essential roles:

 

https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/publications/ECIW_4.0_Guidance_on_Essential_Critical_Infrastructure_Workers_Final3_508_0.pdf 

 

After you have read it tell me again how cruising is essential.

 

No one ever said cruising was essential.  What was pointed out is there are a lot of domestic employees and businesses that depend on the cruise industry and port cities that have lost revenue that once supported essential services. 

[PelicanBill]

1 minute ago, livingonthebeach said:

 

No one ever said cruising was essential.  What was pointed out is there are a lot of domestic employees and businesses that depend on the cruise industry and port cities that have lost revenue that once supported essential services. 

Your argument is better but some were suggesting the Cruise lines deserved preferred consideration as with essential workers.  But those jobs in port cities fall into a large bucket of millions of jobs lost and thousands of businesses that have failed from the pandemic.  All for similar reasons. I don't see anything special about cruising here. 400,000 airline workers lost their jobs.  I doubt that the cruise job loss is that high.

 

[HMR74]

6 minutes ago, livingonthebeach said:

 

No one ever said cruising was essential.  What was pointed out is there are a lot of domestic employees and businesses that depend on the cruise industry and port cities that have lost revenue that once supported essential services. 

we will learn how essential the cruise industry is if it gets closed down and defaults on debt --if the big banks are the creditors then the US will bail them out. if we "guests" are creditors, and we are with the deposits and FCC, we will not get a bailout.

 

[smokeybandit]

1 minute ago, PelicanBill said:

400,000 airline workers lost their jobs.

 

That's worldwide. Many jobs were saved for US airlines due to bailouts. Something cruise lines never got.

[HMR74]

4 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

Your argument is better but some were suggesting the Cruise lines deserved preferred consideration as with essential workers.  But those jobs in port cities fall into a large bucket of millions of jobs lost and thousands of businesses that have failed from the pandemic.  All for similar reasons. I don't see anything special about cruising here. 400,000 airline workers lost their jobs.  I doubt that the cruise job loss is that high.

 

except as stated the cruise lines have received no monetary help while the airlines have.

Smokey--you were fast on the reply.

But this is all complex.

the issue is why is teh CDC, essentially part of govt, so tough on cruise lines,

 

 

and I bet a lot of privately owned restaurants in NY and Michigan want to know why too for their business with their invested money and sweat equity were played around with.

Edited April 5, 2021 by HMR74

[Sunshine3601]

26 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

Whether Disney is open or not is a state matter.  Just look at the difference - Florida - okay to open - California - not so fast.  However with safety measures and a well-run operations Disney proved they could reopen safely - and they followed all CDC guidance (not regulations) as well.  No incidents for months, and same for Universal Studios Florida.

 

Cruise lines demonstrated for months they were unable or unwilling to comply with guidance and had continuing sickness aboard far too many ships. Just go back and read the CDC reports to see this. That's what caused them to institute the red-yellow-green protocol for ships entering US waters.

 

The healthy sail report was vague and lacked any implementation guidelines nor did it contain any commitments to implement all the measure contained within.

How did cruiselines demonstrate for months unable or unwilling to comply to cdc when they haven't sailed since March when covid became a pandemic in the US?

[livingonthebeach]

16 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

Your argument is better but some were suggesting the Cruise lines deserved preferred consideration as with essential workers.  But those jobs in port cities fall into a large bucket of millions of jobs lost and thousands of businesses that have failed from the pandemic.  All for similar reasons. I don't see anything special about cruising here. 400,000 airline workers lost their jobs.  I doubt that the cruise job loss is that high.

 

 

254,000 American jobs were lost by the cruise industry shutdown and $32 billion in economic activity lost. The number of airline workers you state is a global number, not US.  The airline industry never closed. 

 

This is from today's letter from NCL to the CDC:

 

"With vaccine mandates and strict health and safety protocols in place, we are confident of our ability to provide a uniquely safe and healthy vacation environment. These mitigation protocols will minimize, to the greatest extent possible, further infection and spread of COVID-19. With our vessels back in operation, we will not only reinstate tens of thousands of American jobs and meet the significant American consumer’s demand for cruising, but also re-contribute hundreds of billions of dollars to the U.S. economy as the industry resumes cruise operations.

 

We look forward to continued partnership with the CDC in recommencing operations with 100% vaccinated guests and crew aboard. Independent of the pandemic, our primary responsibility remains the safety and welfare of our guests and crew. Recognizing our shared responsibility to health and safety standards — those which exceed the mandated regulations set for other dining, entertainment, travel and tourism enterprises — we embrace these guidelines and view them as opportunities to strengthen public health measures and restore public confidence in our industry and the broader travel sector as a whole."

Edited April 5, 2021 by livingonthebeach

[HMR74]

45 minutes ago, livingonthebeach said:

 

Exactly, and I'll add that it takes an inordinate amount of time to cut through the red tape forest they created to see the light of a logical solution using updated information. 

well, let's see. We are told that if you are vaccinated you are safe.  If they believe that, then we who have vaccinated including the crew, can go on cruises and shore excursion without fear. And those that are not can be there too cause they will not catch from us. And we do not have to wear masks

The only problem with having non vaccinated is there is an outbreak among them the ship will have to divert and that's never good. So just mandate vaccinations.

 

Now, what if the vaccines are not so effective? Why are we told they are? 

 

So, we as potential cruisers have to sort thru this all and come to our own decision. even if sailing from a non US port. I do feel the cruise lines have covered it rather well, they cannot afford  much to go wrong putting the CDC aside.

 

it good business to do it right. Do we all agree on that, and if they screw up, then the onus is on the cruise lines.

 

IMO it is show and tell time. I just will not be on an early cruise 🙂

 

 

 

[sandebeach]

49 minutes ago, livingonthebeach said:

@twangster posted a letter from NCLH to the CDC on another thread, requesting the CDC to lift the CSO by July 4th. I think this makes perfect sense. Here is a snippet:

 

• "NCLH will require that all guests embarking from a U.S. port and/or disembarking to a U.S. port provide proof of having been fully vaccinated with an FDA-, EMA-, or WHO-approved COVID-19 vaccine no less than two weeks prior to their departure date;
• All crew on NCLH vessels will be fully vaccinated with an FDA-, EMA- or WHO-approved COVID-19 vaccine at least two weeks prior to commencement of their duties onboard their assigned vessel;
• NCLH will also incorporate and operationalize the protocols developed by the Healthy Sail Panel (“HSP”), led by former Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services Michael Leavitt and former Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration Dr. Scott Gottlieb. These protocols, include universal testing of guests and crew, combined with required vaccines for all guests and crew, thereby creating a safe, “bubble-like” environment; and
• On or about July 4, 2021, NCLH vessels will begin cruise operations at an initial reduced capacity of 60%, gradually ramping up our fleet departing from U.S. ports and increasing capacity by 20% every 30 days.
• These stringent requirements will remain in place until public health conditions allow for the implementation of more lenient protocols.

We have published the complete SailSAFE health and safety program on our website and attach a copy to this letter.

 

By requiring full and complete vaccinations of guests and crew, we believe our extensive health and safety standards share in the spirit and exceed the intent of the CDC’s existing Conditional Sailing Order (“CSO”) to advance public health goals and to protect guests, crew and the communities we visit. Therefore, we respectfully request the CDC lift the CSO for all NCLH cruise vessels departing from U.S. ports effective July 4, 2021.

 

https://www.nclhltdinvestor.com/news-releases/news-release-details/norwegian-cruise-line-holdings-ltd-submits-plan-cdc-and-will-be

I was just reading that on a social media page. Do you think it will do any good?

[livingonthebeach]

2 minutes ago, sandebeach said:

I was just reading that on a social media page. Do you think it will do any good?

 

At least they can say they tried before taking their business elsewhere.  

[HMR74]

34 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

Your argument is better but some were suggesting the Cruise lines deserved preferred consideration as with essential workers.  But those jobs in port cities fall into a large bucket of millions of jobs lost and thousands of businesses that have failed from the pandemic.  All for similar reasons. I don't see anything special about cruising here. 400,000 airline workers lost their jobs.  I doubt that the cruise job loss is that high.

 

the devil is in the details. Remember to some extent the cruise lines kept their people on board and was paying them at least some money.

 

I read that there were 400,000 jobs lost due to this in the cruising sector but that includes the suppliers. From memory RCL spends around $600 million a year on food (at contractual wholesale prices).

Then think about the jobs created at ports, in hotels for overnight stays, restaurants tourist places, car rentals etc

RCL revenues were 10 billion in 2019, from memory. Carnival is larger, I think  so the big 4 have sales around 50 billion, I guess, but generate  more economic activity globally thru the velocity of money being spent via the supply and related chains. eg, a food truck driver earns and spends when cruise lines are operating.

 

And there is a lobby for cruise lines--That cruise line association.

[smokeybandit]

The cruise lines didn't get bailed out because of the complexities of how they operate with offshore holdings.  Trump wanted to bail them out but knew it just wouldn't work.

[HMR74]

Back early on  when PPT money was being thrown all over the place, the issue came up about cruise lines, and the "no" reply was due to being non US companies. That emanated from the media and Congress for optics-eg, how can some of  my constituents get nothing and cruise lines can. I do hope they helped the suppliers to the cruise lines.

 

Of course after the fact a lot of news came out about companies and people getting the PPT when they did not need the help--Congress does have a way of taking care of big donors.

 

Tom Brady got 800k for his side business and that was in the news. But  lot of traded companies returned the money due to potential embarrassment. But only after names started coming out. Get the picture?

 

It s not what you know, it's who you know.

[HMR74]

1 hour ago, livingonthebeach said:

 

No one ever said cruising was essential.  What was pointed out is there are a lot of domestic employees and businesses that depend on the cruise industry and port cities that have lost revenue that once supported essential services. 

Essential or not is dependent on perspective.

 

If your neighbor is out of work, we have a recession. If you are out of work, its a depression.

 I will try to easily find current data but as of a couple weeks ago there were 18 million unemployed in the US and the number is usually in decent times in the 6 million range.

This is number of people in US receiving unemployment comp.  Thus doe not include the unemployed not receiving UC

 

 

 

Business and economic activity is down, period.

 

Edited April 5, 2021 by HMR74

[The Scurvy Pirate]

2 hours ago, Tolkmit said:

 

"Then the CDC finally released it's technical requirements last week, which are impossible to meet, and said "Submit plans for how you will do this impossible thing."

 

Where is John Wick when you need him....

[HMR74]

that is why its called a bureaucracy.

Is like a blob (or blog now) and there is nothing we can do to stop it.

Edited April 5, 2021 by HMR74

[HMR74]

Here is a handy website from TSA showing the number of travelers going thru checkpoints. Remember  this was Easter weekend with more travel and sno birds returning north too along with spring break from schools that have mostly been zoomed. So it will be interesting to look at data in a week or two.

Now, once cruising starts in June in  non us ports,  if 20 ships sail, that alone will add 60,000 passengers thru TSA--between going and returning  passengers and 1500 per ship. And if a passenger goes thru TSA twice, once for domestic segment and a second time for intl segment, that just inflates the numbers but it was true before.

I am just pointing out the spider effect on business in the US just from cruising.

 

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

 

With all the talk of increased air travel, yes its up off the low, however it is still down about 1/3 from 2 years ago pre-covid.

Now, when you think about businesses with fixed and variable costs, airlines and cruise lines have huge capital investments thus huge fixed costs.

So if capacity is reduced, that revenue loss goes mostly to bottom line, and thus cash flow.

RCCL in its annual report showed occupancy at 106%-but explained that was 3rd and 4th occupants of a normal cabin usual during winter and spring breaks and summer when kids are in same cabin as parent to keep costs down. We intuitively know that when the ships normal capacity is ~2800 but can be ~3200 if truly full

 

Now, if you want to get political, Delta is in GA. Delta is a beneficiary of bail out. What if a little extra pressure was put on Delta to speak out vs the  GA voting requirements. I am being general in my discussion cause it cuts both ways depending on which political party has leverage, and they both use it when they can.

 

[ONECRUISER]

14 hours ago, Iamcruzin said:

That was to prevent all of the alcoholics from filling up the hospitals because of withdrawal.

I know, just loved the "Club" case that won. No shirt/Pants required, just a Mask . Then when all Restaurants were still shutdown for inside eating, they were allowed to feed the Customers inside. Not that I'd want eat there

Edited April 5, 2021 by ONECRUISER

[HMR74]

By "accident"  I went looking for "Bliss" cruises, as I did not want to be on a ship the week after a bliss cruise. Bliss cruises are charters where they buy the entire ship and it's clothing optional. And more.

 

Oasis still has a bliss cruise scheduled for Nov 13  2021, I think. Reflection Nov 2022.

[not-enough-cruising]

15 hours ago, ONECRUISER said:

Ironic thing is Liquor Stores are Essential during 15day lock down and even few Strip Clubs won their Court Case. They can serve food, liquor and entertain long as they kept Masks on

Don’t forget the marijuana dispensaries