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First Celebrity Cruises - Two Guests Test Positive :(


themutis
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Skeptical person here...

1. How do they know that everyone was vaccinated if the card is as easy to forge as they say it is and there is no national/digital database?

2. If the incubation period for Covid is up to 14 days, how does testing 72 hours ahead help? The pair tested negative 3 days (?) before departure and tested positive 8 days later(check my math, but I think it's within the 14 days). Am I missing something?

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22 hours ago, O2B@Cagain said:

Skeptical person here...

1. How do they know that everyone was vaccinated if the card is as easy to forge as they say it is and there is no national/digital database?

2. If the incubation period for Covid is up to 14 days, how does testing 72 hours ahead help? The pair tested negative 3 days (?) before departure and tested positive 8 days later(check my math, but I think it's within the 14 days). Am I missing something?

Another skeptic here. Breakthrough infections possible, but odd that it happened to both people in a cabin.

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1 hour ago, Snow cat said:

Another skeptic here. Breakthrough infections possible, but odd that it happened to both people in a cabin.

I am not sure what you find "odd" about this. Are you implying that they faked their vaccination records? Even so, they must have been quite careless and/or unlucky to have both been exposed a few days before they were to go off on a cruise. Not just any cruise, but the first cruise of the year.

 

In any case I am pleased that this happened, it showed that such situations can be handled with minimum fuss and no panic. I still advocate for preventing the introduction of c-19 onboard to the extent possible, via mandatory vaccination most likely. But it is nice to know that major panic did not ensue.

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8 hours ago, Snow cat said:

Another skeptic here. Breakthrough infections possible, but odd that it happened to both people in a cabin.

I would think its possible but somewhat unlikely.  Would also be good to know the variant they tested positive for.  At the end of the day they were asymptomatic and no serious illness so its not a terrible situation.  If they had to be put on a ventilator then maybe I would question the vaccine status. If most of the people on board are vaccinated it makes it very difficult for the virus to replicate and get a large foothold on the ship population. The only thing I see that was bad was the delay getting all the testing done and people stuck in their cabins.  They need to get a PCR test that takes 1-5 minutes.

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On 6/13/2021 at 8:58 AM, Snow cat said:

Another skeptic here. Breakthrough infections possible, but odd that it happened to both people in a cabin.

I'm also somewhat skeptical. However, I can see some reasons that might help explain why two people sharing a cabin might have had vaccine-breakthrough cases even though the vaccines are highly effective. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are around 95% effective against the original COVID strain, so two people randomly both getting breakthrough cases would be around 5%^2 times the probability of two unvaccinated people getting COVID^2. 5%^2 is 0.25%

 

However, the vaccines are less effective against variants, perhaps around 75% effective against some variants. Two closely associated people might have been exposed to the same variant - e.g. seeing a friend who is infected with that variant. 25%^2 is about 6.25%; still small not as unlikely. Also, perhaps two people sharing a cabin were related and had genetic commonalities that made them more vulnerable. These numbers were for Moderna and Pfizer vaccines as they've been around in the US longest but some vaccines have a lower efficacy and they may have gotten one of those.

 

So, it makes me wonder if this is a case of people faking their vaccination record, but the probability of rare things happening somewhere isn't that low and this might just be an improbable event that occurred. 

 

There is promising evidence coming out that vaccinated people are unlikely to spread COVID even if they get breakthrough cases. If the rest of the ship stays clear, it will actually be a hopeful sign for cruising resuming. 

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No vaccine in history has been 100% effective. Some vaccines have higher efficacy rates than others. The measles vaccine is about 97% effective, while the influenza vaccine effectiveness fluctuates wildly each year, with an average efficacy rate around 30%. But in nearly 100% of all vaccines for all diseases, even if you catch the disease after being vaccinated, the symptoms are less severe, usually considerably less severe. And that appears to be what happened on the Celebrity ship. The passengers who tested positive were asymptomatic. So as usual, this is a non-story blown up by the click-hungry media. If anything, it should have been proof that the vaccine worked correctly. 

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