Celebrity cancels Oz/NZ cruises at least up to 21 December

[The_Big_M]

On 7/7/2021 at 9:20 PM, neenee61 said:

RCCL have just cancelled 2021/2022 summer sailings for Aust.  Think Celebrity will follow.  PO Aust have not announced any restart as all up to the Government.  

 

They didn't cancel all those sailings. Only one ship was cancelled for the season.

[The_Big_M]

On 7/9/2021 at 4:21 AM, jg51 said:

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Meaning no disrespect to anyone, but we think that there is a lot of hyperbole -- unnecessary and unhelpful, inspiring pessimism and less than good mental health --  being used in reference to the CoViD-19 situation in Australia.  Here's why we say this:

 

1.  As of July 1 (a week ago) -- five months since vaccinations began

-- 32% of the Australian population had received at least one dose (of Pfizer or Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine) and ...
-- 10% of them had received both doses.

 

2.  The above numbers are higher by now and will continue to climb every week.  We think that they should be very high long before the end of the year, as long as the government does what is necessary to keep the Pfizer product pouring in.  [Many believe that AZ should be avoided, for either or both of a couple of reasons.]

 

3.  While there has been -- since June 20 -- an increase in the average number of CoViD-19 cases in Australia, that increase is just a "blip" (not a "surge" or "outbreak"), in normal parlance.  To say more than that is hype/sensationalism from the unreliable media.  The reason we downplay this is that these are the very small numbers of new cases that have been reported, each day from June 21 thorugh July 8, in the ENTIRE CONTINENT of Australia (not Sydney):

25 ... 10 ... 12 ... 30 ... 14 [weekend] ... 35 ... 42 ... 29 ... 34 ... 48 ... 33 ... 15 [weekend] ... 76 ... 23 ... 46 ... 29 ... 29 ... 44.

 

We can compare the above numbers to the (continuously descending) average number of new daily cases in the U.S., which has been between 10,000 and 15,000, over the last 35 days.  Since the U.S. has 13.4 times as many people as Australia, it becomes obvious that the actual number of new cases "down under" are very small indeed.  [If Aussies were becoming ill as frequently as Americans are, their daily  average would be between 746 and 1119 (not between 10 and 76).]

 

Also, the current increase in cases could be partly attributable to the fact that Australia has entered its winter "flu season," when viruses are able to survive more easily.

 

4.  Last -- but definitely not least -- is the following fact:

There has not been a SINGLE CoViD-19-related death in Australia since October 28, 2020!  The nation knows how to treat the people who do test positive.

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We think that Aussie cruising should begin in late 2021 or very early 2022.  There is far too much unnecessary fear.

Thank you.

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As the saying goes, a pessimist is what an optimist calls a realist.

 

In respect of the points above.

1) We're mid year, and that is all that's been achieved with priority categories for the most part, e.g. elderly, and emergency/transit workers and the like. Vaccines are still not available for the majority of the population and there is only a willingness by half the population to get vaccinated. While progress will improve over the course of the year, it's very unlikely that any mass level coverage of vaccination will arise before the end of the year - and this is a key precursor before they look at next stages where travel will open up.

 

2) The issue is we don't have a great need for Pfizer and many other countries have greated need than we do, hence the difficulty in getting it here. As said for 1, that will improve, but it will only happen later in the year. It's not available now so many can't even be vaccinated.

 

3) As with America and other places, looking at figures for the nation aren't helpful as outbreaks are in specific areas. Some places are compleetely free - but in Sydney there is an outbreak. And numbers are growing continually. Nobody is going to talk about moving to the next phases while that is the case.

 

4) That's true - but has no relevance to the topic of opening up for travel. 

[CalTexCruiser]

I think Australia has done a fabulous job keeping the virus numbers and deaths low...y'all should stay the course and take advantage of the fact that you are an island nation.

[jg51]

8 hours ago, neenee61 said:

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Good to see you researched our Aust stats.  You would be pushing for a Aussie to agree with you on allowing cruises to resume.  The Ruby deaths hit us pretty hard and has left a very taste with the cruising industry during COVID.  As for international visitors that just wont be happening before mid 2022 at the earliest. 

 

I miss my cruising as much as everyone else on CC, but also very happy to wait before being stuck on a sick ship.  Have had both vaccs, but will still use a common sense approach in my travels. 

 

As I write this there is a lady and her young son on Current Affair.  They both contracted COVID on The Ruby and 16 months out still quite unwell.   So please excuse our Government for not putting cruising ahead of peoples health and wellbeing.

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Good day, "neenee61."

Strangely, your post was displayed (above, at #24) as though it were a quotation written by us!  We were able to quote it (just above) as being from you.

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We are definitely sympathetic to your plight.  We can clearly recall the sadness of early 2020, and we understand your nation's caution.  You see, we have been constantly following the situation (events, statistics, etc.) "down under" throughout the last fifteen months, because we have very dear cruise-loving friends in New South Wales.

 

In our earlier post, we were not recommending a resumption of cruising in the very near future -- but only perhaps in December (your summer), at which point we think that your national vaccination percentage will be high enough to permit this to be done safely.  Of course, it's up to Canberra to make the final decision (since they will know the statistics better than we will), but the "mid-2022" that you mentioned seems much farther off than necessary.

 

In case we have misled you, we are not concerned about ourselves being able to cruise to (or from) Australia.  Instead, we are concerned about our Aussie friends being unable to cruise to New Zealand and to other destinations (even Hawaii and/or Alaska, where we would love to see them again)!  {We have already been with them in Australia and aboard a cruise ship.}

 

We would not even mind if Australia were to forbid non-Aussies to disembark at Sydney or Melbourne, as long as they would allow Aussies to embark (and then require them to undergo strict testing -- or even quarantine -- when they return from the cruise).

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4 hours ago, TeeRick said:

What you say is true in comparing data - particularly to the US.  But my friends in Sydney are worried anyway.  Remember that we in the USA have been used to very high case numbers and deaths.  We to a great extent have become desensitized to these numbers.  But our friends in Australia have not had any COVID to speak of compared to ROW.  So they are proceeding with high caution still.  

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Please see comments to neenee61, just above.  Also ...

We had to smile at these words of yours, which really puzzled us -- "Remember that we in the USA have been used to very high case numbers and deaths."  What puzzled us was the fact that we had just cited some of those high U.S. statistics (and low Australian statistics) in our first post, which you quoted.

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[jg51]

5 hours ago, The_Big_M said:

 

As the saying goes, a pessimist is what an optimist calls a realist.

 

In respect of the points above.

1) We're mid year, and that is all that's been achieved with priority categories for the most part, e.g. elderly, and emergency/transit workers and the like. Vaccines are still not available for the majority of the population and there is only a willingness by half the population to get vaccinated. While progress will improve over the course of the year, it's very unlikely that any mass level coverage of vaccination will arise before the end of the year - and this is a key precursor before they look at next stages where travel will open up.

 

2) The issue is we don't have a great need for Pfizer and many other countries have greated need than we do, hence the difficulty in getting it here. As said for 1, that will improve, but it will only happen later in the year. It's not available now so many can't even be vaccinated.

 

3) As with America and other places, looking at figures for the nation aren't helpful as outbreaks are in specific areas. Some places are compleetely free - but in Sydney there is an outbreak. And numbers are growing continually. Nobody is going to talk about moving to the next phases while that is the case.

 

4) That's true - but has no relevance to the topic of opening up for travel. 

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Greetings to "The_Big_M"!

 

Thanks for supplying us with some surprising information that we did not previously have -- especially the facts (1) that so many Aussies do not want to be vaccinated and (2) that the Pfizer vaccine is not becoming widely available.  We can see how these would be major stumbling blocks to opening up the nation to tourism (both incoming and outgoing). 

 

We imagine that a great many of the people that now do not wish to be vaccinated would be thinking quite differently if your nation were physically "attached" to Asia, rather than standing in isolation.  They feel very protected now, so they see no reason to go to the expense/risk/inconvenience, etc., of getting "jabbed."

 

Well, we can only find one thing in your message with which we need to disagree.  You wrote: "outbreaks are in specific areas. Some places are completely free - but in Sydney there is an outbreak. And numbers are growing continually. "

 

Our friends have mentioned Sydney as being the focal point of the new cases, but we must insist that, even if ALL the new Australian virus cases (of June 21 to July 8 ) were contracted in Sydney alone, we still could not call that an "outbreak," because the numbers are so small, and no one is dying. 

 

There also may be some false positives.  For at least a few weeks, it has been known -- at least in the U.S. -- that some already-vaccinated people who undergo very sensitive CoViD-19 tests are mistakenly counted as "new positive cases."  It has been determined that they -- who have no symptoms -- are merely carrying an extremely small (non-contagious) load of the virus, which is trying (unsuccessfully) to infect them.

 

Without a doubt, Australia has had two genuine "outbreaks" -- a bad one from late March to late April, 2020, and a very bad one from late June to late September, 2020.  What is happening now is not insignificant, but it is very much smaller, as can be verified by looking at this graph:

https://www.google.com/search?q=graph+covid-19+cases+in+australia

 

We will "shut up" now and let you have the last (and uncontested) word, if you wish!

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Edited July 10, 2021 by jg51

[CCJack]

On 7/6/2021 at 11:36 PM, Annbri said:

Thank you so much for the update! We have a cruise scheduled for January 14, 2022 leaving from Auckland and finishing in Sydney. This cruise is a replacement for our Australia/New Zealand Cruise that was was booked for January of last year which was also cancelled.

 

As of yet, we have heard nothing from Celebrity as to whether our January 2022 cruise will be cancelled or not. Based on the letter you received,  it does not look too promising that it will be a go for us. Our final payment is due on October 16. As we live in Niagara Falls, Canada, I am truly hoping we hear from Celebrity well before that date as we don’t want to pay our balance in full only to have the cruise cancelled. We also do not want to book our airfare if the cruise is not a go as we are still waiting to get a refund from an airline for another Celebrity cruise that we had booked for April 2020 for Japan which was also cancelled. 

 

Any updates from fellow travellers pertaining to Celebrity’s Australia/New Zealand cruises leaving in January 2022 would certainly be greatly appreciated. 

Annbri,

 

Wow, our story is so similar to yours.....

 

We were booked on (all Celebrity):

April 10, 2020 - best of Japan - cancelled

rebooked  Jan 25, 2021 Auckland to Sydney - cancelled

rebooked  Jan 3, 2022 - Sydney to Auckland

 

I am nearly certain our Jan 3 cruise will not happen, but still hoping.  Have booked a replacement already (refundable if OZ/NZ is a go).  :  June 7th, 2022 - Ireland and Iceland - I am tired of the uncertainty with Australia.... 

 

All of our cancellations have gone fairly well with refunds from airlines and FCC from Celebrity.  The only hickup was air new Zealand for a flight from Melbourne to NZ in 2021 - they were very uncooperative in terms or refunds.   We also scheduled both of the Australia cruises around the Australian Open, so we have some money invested in tix - but the company we are working with has been cooperative with re-bookings and (hopefully) refunds for the tennis tix.

 

Good luck.  I will let you know as soon as I hear anything on our Jan 3 cruise.   My worst nightmare is they open up international flights to Australia for calendar year 2022 - but it turns out that date is based on your departure date, and our flight departs U.S. in 2021 and arrives Jan 1 2022 in Australia, so we would be out !  - just our luck!

 

 

 

[cruisingaussies]

8 hours ago, The_Big_M said:

 

As the saying goes, a pessimist is what an optimist calls a realist.

 

In respect of the points above.

1) We're mid year, and that is all that's been achieved with priority categories for the most part, e.g. elderly, and emergency/transit workers and the like. Vaccines are still not available for the majority of the population and there is only a willingness by half the population to get vaccinated. While progress will improve over the course of the year, it's very unlikely that any mass level coverage of vaccination will arise before the end of the year - and this is a key precursor before they look at next stages where travel will open up.

 

2) The issue is we don't have a great need for Pfizer and many other countries have greated need than we do, hence the difficulty in getting it here. As said for 1, that will improve, but it will only happen later in the year. It's not available now so many can't even be vaccinated.

 

3) As with America and other places, looking at figures for the nation aren't helpful as outbreaks are in specific areas. Some places are compleetely free - but in Sydney there is an outbreak. And numbers are growing continually. Nobody is going to talk about moving to the next phases while that is the case.

 

4) That's true - but has no relevance to the topic of opening up for travel. 

Thanks Big M for a factual and sensible précis written by an Australian, in Australia. This is exactly how it is. 

[Hlitner]

My issue is not with Australia or NZ (we love to visit both countries and their wonderful people) but with X and the other cruise lines who keep stringing folks along with scheduled cruises that are not going to happen.  It does not take a PhD to know that Australia and NZ are not going to open up to cruise tourism (at least for folks from outside Australia/NZ) by the end of 2021 or even well into 2022.  Both countries have followed a careful strategy of isolating themselves and using very restrictive measures to protect their public health.  So why do we still have scheduled cruises (on several lines) to these countries?  

 

So I will toss out a question for the Aussies/Kiwis who might still be lurking.   Do any of you think your countries will reopen to cruise ships in the next year?  

 

Hank

[neenee61]

23 hours ago, TeeRick said:

What you say is true in comparing data - particularly to the US.  But my friends in Sydney are worried anyway.  Remember that we in the USA have been used to very high case numbers and deaths.  We to a great extent have become desensitized to these numbers.  But our friends in Australia have not had any COVID to speak of compared to ROW.  So they are proceeding with high caution still.  

My good friend is PO casino manager(landside).  She returned to work Jan this year and they were hoping for a restart in March, for Aussies only.  As we all know this hasn't happened and they are now looking 2022.  From our daily updates I wouldn't hold out on any cruises summer 2021/2022.Still quoting that OS travel may resume mid 2022...still won't hold my breath with that.  I have rescheduled cruises for April (Aust cruise) and Japan Oct 2022.  April won't happen and thinking of changing Japan again for April 2023. 

At the end of the day we really need a crystal ball to know how things will pan out.

[TeeRick]

8 minutes ago, neenee61 said:

My good friend is PO casino manager(landside).  She returned to work Jan this year and they were hoping for a restart in March, for Aussies only.  As we all know this hasn't happened and they are now looking 2022.  From our daily updates I wouldn't hold out on any cruises summer 2021/2022.Still quoting that OS travel may resume mid 2022...still won't hold my breath with that.  I have rescheduled cruises for April (Aust cruise) and Japan Oct 2022.  April won't happen and thinking of changing Japan again for April 2023. 

At the end of the day we really need a crystal ball to know how things will pan out.

Crystal ball helps but what we need is a high percentage of citizens to be fully vaccinated.  That should be achievable.

[The_Big_M]

19 hours ago, jg51 said:

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Well, we can only find one thing in your message with which we need to disagree.  You wrote: "outbreaks are in specific areas. Some places are completely free - but in Sydney there is an outbreak. And numbers are growing continually. "

 

Our friends have mentioned Sydney as being the focal point of the new cases, but we must insist that, even if ALL the new Australian virus cases (of June 21 to July 8 ) were contracted in Sydney alone, we still could not call that an "outbreak," because the numbers are so small, and no one is dying. 

 

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Thanks for your response. I don't think this is actually a disagreement either, just a matter of perspective. I'd agree with your statement regarding outbreak size especially in the US and other places - by that standard it's nothing. Locally though there are two factors making it viewed as very concerning:

1) it is growing rapidly; it hasn't plateaued so isn't under control yet

2) it is spreading in geography

 

Also, as a sad aside, we did have our first death from this outbreak yesterday, a family member of someone who caught it from one of the spread locations.

 

 

19 hours ago, jg51 said:

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Without a doubt, Australia has had two genuine "outbreaks" -- a bad one from late March to late April, 2020, and a very bad one from late June to late September, 2020.  What is happening now is not insignificant, but it is very much smaller, as can be verified by looking at this graph:

https://www.google.com/search?q=graph+covid-19+cases+in+australia

 

 

By local standards there are four factors that make it highly significant compared to the others you noted on the graph.

 

1) The first outbreak you mentioned was when nothing much was known about covid, no controls were in place and it just entered Australia unchecked. This is a very different situation to now and expectations are different. Many controls and preventative measures have been put in place since.

2) The second was also significant but if you change the state dropdown on that google graph you'll see it all occurred within Victoria. That state was locked down for 3 months due to it, and it is regarded poorly as mistakes were made that caused it. It is viewed as something that is not wanted nor expected to be repeated. States handle things differently and NSW's approach to date has been generally better in terms of management and handling than Victoria's.

3) This current outbreak involves the Delta strain, which didn't exist at the time of the other two outbreaks. This is seen as more contagious than the strain that existed for the previous outbreaks.

4) I'll raise you a local specific comparative graph 😉

Compare Australia's COVID outbreaks | COVID-19 Data (covid19data.com.au)

In the first graph you'll see this outbreak (the blue line) already has more cases than any other aside from the Vic one (red line).

In the second graph which shows growth you'll see its growth right now is greater than any other outbreak we have had at this number of days since it started.

 

P.S. Not trying to have the last word, just give a local insight to the situation.

[cruisingaussies]

17 hours ago, Hlitner said:

My issue is not with Australia or NZ (we love to visit both countries and their wonderful people) but with X and the other cruise lines who keep stringing folks along with scheduled cruises that are not going to happen.  It does not take a PhD to know that Australia and NZ are not going to open up to cruise tourism (at least for folks from outside Australia/NZ) by the end of 2021 or even well into 2022.  Both countries have followed a careful strategy of isolating themselves and using very restrictive measures to protect their public health.  So why do we still have scheduled cruises (on several lines) to these countries?  

 

So I will toss out a question for the Aussies/Kiwis who might still be lurking.   Do any of you think your countries will reopen to cruise ships in the next year?  

 

Hank

Hank,

We're hoping we will open up for the beginning of the 22/23 season next year, ie around October/November '22. 

Just my opinion, but I think what Celebrity is doing, is cancelling cruises in chunks which is enabling them to refund in a timely manner.  At the moment cruises up to and including the 21 December voyage (our Xmas cruise 😥) are cancelled.  I expect the January 2022 and onwards voyages will be cancelled in the next few weeks.

Most other cruise lines have already totally cancelled the upcoming 21/22 season.

[Dimarie40]

I think the earliest we will see cruise ships returning to Australia will be in October 2022 when the Transpacific cruises are scheduled.  Until we increase our vaccination rates and while we continue to have outbreaks our borders will remain closed.

 

The media has done a great job of scaring a large portion of the Australian population away from having the AstraZeneca vaccine (due to side effects particularly blood clotting) and this has slowed things down considerably. Things are starting to improve and vaccinations are beginning to ramp up so that's a step in the right direction. Our federal government has now secured many more Pfizer vaccines so expect that to have a positive impact. 

 

Yes, there is currently an outbreak of the Delta strain in Sydney and the government was slow to respond and is now faced with locking down the area until they have it under control. I am sure they will get on top of this within the next several weeks providing people do as they are asked and follow the rules set down by our leaders. 

 

We have just gone ahead and lifted and shifted our November 2021 cruise to November 2022 and had previously moved our TP from this year to October next year so I hope I am correct in my predictions. 

[jg51]

12 hours ago, Dimarie40 said:

I think the earliest we will see cruise ships returning to Australia will be in October 2022 when the Transpacific cruises are scheduled.  Until we increase our vaccination rates and while we continue to have outbreaks our borders will remain closed. ...

 

... We have just gone ahead and lifted and shifted our November 2021 cruise to November 2022 and had previously moved our TP from this year to October next year so I hope I am correct in my predictions. 

Good day, "Dimarie40."

Thanks for the helpful and interesting information.

We too hope that you are "correct in [your] predictions," so that you will be able to enjoy your 2022 cruise.

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