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Fred - Atlantic - August 10


PelicanBill
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48 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

It Fred follows the "Green" model line, Ohio will get some needed rain, I expect.

Bugs Bunny would say, "yyyyyyyyyyyyyyeah it's a possibility!"

 

 

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Fred is a depression and following pretty close to the forecast as it has been for the last 2 days. Expect it to return to tropical storm status once over water along the Cuba coast, pass over the western Florida Keys then into the gulf and along the western Florida coast but offshore heading toward Alabama and/or Georgia.

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Despite the path of Fred to the west of Florida, remember that the rotation often brings heavy rain to the east of the storm center, as you can see in this rainfall forecast:

083635WPCQPF_sm.gif

 

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14 minutes ago, jgalley said:

Any idea what this will look like for someone cruising out of Miami to the Bahamas this weekend? I'm planning on leaving tomorrow with Royal Caribbean. 

Fred is very weak and will generate bands of rain over the Bahamas for 2-3 days longer but nothing a cruise ship would avoid.

 

I am more concerned about the next system (See the August thread here) that is so far forecast to hear into the Bahamas and indications are it would be stronger.  Arrives later next week or weekend so you should be in and out by then!

 

I think we are going to see Fred struggle to regain  tropical storm status for 2 days now,

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5 hours ago, jgalley said:

Thank you for that info!

 

Any idea about the sea conditions? Should I expect a choppy ride? 

 

Not Pelican Bill, but my answer would be yes.  Expect the worst and hope for the best.  

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14 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

 

Not Pelican Bill, but my answer would be yes.  Expect the worst and hope for the best.  

Somewhat choppy but not terrible, I would guess?

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Fred has degenerated into a wave. But still forecast to redevelop. And has, as I imagined, shifted quite a bit west!  Well away from Florida now. Alabama & Mississippi and very west FL Panhandle need to pay attention.

cone graphic

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4 hours ago, PelicanBill said:

Fred has degenerated into a wave. But still forecast to redevelop. And has, as I imagined, shifted quite a bit west!  Well away from Florida now. Alabama & Mississippi and very west FL Panhandle need to pay attention.

cone graphic

 

And, appears headed for my area of Ohio!  Our beautiful Summer of green grass is changing to brown/yellow.  We need rain!

 

Just checked the Port Cam for Tampa and it is raining heavily there.  I assume this is Fred.  I wonder if that kind of weather will postpone/cancel the first pre-season football game for Cincinnati and Tampa Bay.

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16 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

 

And, appears headed for my area of Ohio!  Our beautiful Summer of green grass is changing to brown/yellow.  We need rain!

 

Just checked the Port Cam for Tampa and it is raining heavily there.  I assume this is Fred.  I wonder if that kind of weather will postpone/cancel the first pre-season football game for Cincinnati and Tampa Bay.

Did the game happen?  Yea that is Fred rain!

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8 hours ago, PelicanBill said:

Did the game happen?

 

Yes.  The Bengals prevailed.  More Field Goals than Touchdowns by them, however.  But, at least they won and that has to be psychologically good for the team by defeating a team like Tampa Bay.  

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Landfall for Fred tonight. 50mph winds will likely be stronger, close to 60mph, so this is not trivial.

Path is likely over Panama City, then up near Columbus GA, and Knoxville TN.

image.png.53af6f1e1c83e6c9736f1705fce4fedc.png

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Our latest weather forecast for Dayton, Ohio shows Fred providing little needed rain.  The track of the storm appears that we will be on the Western fringe of Fred if that.  The percentage chances of rain keep decreasing this week while the humidity level keeps increasing.  

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8 hours ago, PelicanBill said:

BIG rainfall impact, but sorry it's not helping Ohio.

 

Exactly what I was afraid would happen.  Southeast and East Ohio is largely rural, so perhaps their crops will get a bit of a benefit from the rain.  Looks like where you live, Bill, you will be wet!  

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