Carnival Stock Below $10

[Lee Cruiser]

Wow!  I knew Carnival stock was too high a few months ago, but I didn't see it going below $10 again.  I was thinking more in the $14-15 range.  Nobody knows exactly how low it will go, but now I'm wondering if it will test the 2020 bottom of near $7.

[ColeThornton]

3 minutes ago, Lee Cruiser said:

Wow!  I knew Carnival stock was too high a few months ago, but I didn't see it going below $10 again.  I was thinking more in the $14-15 range.  Nobody knows exactly how low it will go, but now I'm wondering if it will test the 2020 bottom of near $7.

 

With as bad as the stock indexes are this year nothing would surprise me.  Ugly times for pretty much everything on Wall St right now.

[mz-s]

Buy on the way up, not the way down...

[Lee Cruiser]

2 minutes ago, ColeThornton said:

 

With as bad as the stock indexes are this year nothing would surprise me.  Ugly times for pretty much everything on Wall St right now.

That's certainly true.  I can't bear to watch it much anymore.  Should have known better than to pull up my account today.

[CruzDayz]

i bought another 250 shares this morning. If it goes to $7 I will add more. I have been lucky to ride it up over the years and then sell at a modest profit a few times. I have always kept 100 shares for OBC.  

[ProgRockCruiser]

Noting that this particular stock is doing "poorly" when the whole market has dumped is not really useful.  Stocks are entering bear market territory, according to the headlines, so not sure why you'd expect Carnival or any particular usually-hold-long-term stock to be any different.

[Silent Penguin]

I'm thinking of buying more too, but the stock sites I'm reading are strongly  suggesting Hold not Buy or Sell.  

[Lee Cruiser]

2 minutes ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

Noting that this particular stock is doing "poorly" when the whole market has dumped is not really useful.  Stocks are entering bear market territory, according to the headlines, so not sure why you'd expect Carnival or any particular usually-hold-long-term stock to be any different.

Most stocks have gone down this year, but I'm pretty sure that Carnival has had a much deeper drop percentage wise than the overall market.  One year ago it was above $28.  That's a more than 60% drop.

[silversneakers]

1 hour ago, Lee Cruiser said:

Wow!  I knew Carnival stock was too high a few months ago, but I didn't see it going below $10 again.  I was thinking more in the $14-15 range.  Nobody knows exactly how low it will go, but now I'm wondering if it will test the 2020 bottom of near $7.

Not a good forecast for the cruise industry.  I read where Carnival Corp is looking to sell Seabourne which is their high-end cruise line.  I would also suspect that the shareholder benefit most of us have been use to getting will be looked at very closely in the future.  Carnival is not alone, all the cruise lines will be struggling with the economy tanking.  I think people are re-thinking their cruise travel plans.

[BoozinCroozin]

This has ended several friends retirement plans, made me rethink mine completely, and crazy counting how many will wind up working until they pass. I had planned to retire in 8 years, it is now looking like 15. 

[BlerkOne]

54 minutes ago, Lee Cruiser said:

Most stocks have gone down this year, but I'm pretty sure that Carnival has had a much deeper drop percentage wise than the overall market.  One year ago it was above $28.  That's a more than 60% drop.

NCLH dropped by a larger percentage than CCL today. Royal also drop as did all of the airlines. Even oil companies dropped, even thought the price of oil went up.

[Frank12]

Has nothing to do with CCL.  The entire market is tanking.

[ray98]

Not surprising.  Carnival took on $30B in high interest debt.  They are 2Y into their recovery plan and are still losing money by the day with all ships back in service.  Now we have record inflation, astronomical fuel costs and it appears a recession is in the near future.  During a recession discretionary income that is used for things like vacations dries up first.  The future is not promising for the cruise industry, particularly Carnival.

[Saint Greg]

55 minutes ago, Frank12 said:

Has nothing to do with CCL.  The entire market is tanking.

Yep. Disney was about $180 a year ago. It’s $95 today.

[mowogo]

52 minutes ago, ray98 said:

Not surprising.  Carnival took on $30B in high interest debt.  They are 2Y into their recovery plan and are still losing money by the day with all ships back in service.  Now we have record inflation, astronomical fuel costs and it appears a recession is in the near future.  During a recession discretionary income that is used for things like vacations dries up first.  The future is not promising for the cruise industry, particularly Carnival.

You’ve just presented the case as to why even as a fan of Carnival I wouldn’t touch their stock right now.  Carnival Corporation is a company set up perfectly for a bankruptcy that will keep most of the ships running while discharging debt.  

[HaveWeMetYet]

1 minute ago, mowogo said:

You’ve just presented the case as to why even as a fan of Carnival I wouldn’t touch their stock right now.  Carnival Corporation is a company set up perfectly for a bankruptcy that will keep most of the ships running while discharging debt.  

No it won't

All of the debt is the ships. They can't pay, they can't keep.

Almost all cruise line bankruptcy are liquidation.

[BlerkOne]

4 minutes ago, mowogo said:

You’ve just presented the case as to why even as a fan of Carnival I wouldn’t touch their stock right now.  Carnival Corporation is a company set up perfectly for a bankruptcy that will keep most of the ships running while discharging debt.  

I think Mickey Arison still owns over 80 million shares.

[Mary229]

It depends on why you are buying the stock.  If it is for the shareholder benefit and you cruise often,  sure buy your 100 shares. As someone else said buy it on the way up.   I did the same with Ford stock, my benefit is well worth more than the price I paid for the stock. Same with my CCL.  I own them both only for the benefit, they don’t fit my investment outlook. 
 

My guess is if there won’t be a bankruptcy but there may be some divestment. 

[fbe2228]

Speaking only of the OBC benefit and not of a potential share price increase, Is holding at least 100 shares in order to get the OBC even worth it anymore?  From what I'm seeing, now that OBC really only applies to non "reduced rate" sailings?  Fortunately, we often seem to sniff out a deal on our cruises, so I'm guessing that would be considered a "reduced rate".  I'm concerned that I may never see the benefit of the Shareholder Benefit (again, not speaking of any potential share price increase).

 

Share price is below $10 today, so this is on my mind again.

 

Thanks in advance.

[mz-s]

5 minutes ago, fbe2228 said:

Speaking only of the OBC benefit and not of a potential share price increase, Is holding at least 100 shares in order to get the OBC even worth it anymore?  From what I'm seeing, now that OBC really only applies to non "reduced rate" sailings?  Fortunately, we often seem to sniff out a deal on our cruises, so I'm guessing that would be considered a "reduced rate".  I'm concerned that I may never see the benefit of the Shareholder Benefit (again, not speaking of any potential share price increase).

 

Share price is below $10 today, so this is on my mind again.

 

Thanks in advance.

There are reports of people being denied shareholder benefit OBC with casino rates, but there are other reports of people still getting it even with heavily discounted casino cruises.

[Mary229]

1 minute ago, mz-s said:

There are reports of people being denied shareholder benefit OBC with casino rates, but there are other reports of people still getting it even with heavily discounted casino cruises.

I am pretty sure no OBC is consistent with pre-Covid policy, sometimes a person will slip through the cracks 

Edited June 14, 2022 by Mary229

[Mary229]

11 minutes ago, fbe2228 said:

Speaking only of the OBC benefit and not of a potential share price increase, Is holding at least 100 shares in order to get the OBC even worth it anymore?  From what I'm seeing, now that OBC really only applies to non "reduced rate" sailings?  Fortunately, we often seem to sniff out a deal on our cruises, so I'm guessing that would be considered a "reduced rate".  I'm concerned that I may never see the benefit of the Shareholder Benefit (again, not speaking of any potential share price increase).

 

Share price is below $10 today, so this is on my mind again.

 

Thanks in advance.

You get the OBC on the sale price.  You usually don’t get it if it is a special casino promotion or other very special pricing by invitation only.  Those promotions are usually free or very low priced 

[BlerkOne]

16 minutes ago, fbe2228 said:

 From what I'm seeing, now that OBC really only applies to non "reduced rate" sailings?  

 

I have yet to pay full price, been on 7 or more Carnival cruises since the restart and received the OBC without issue. Also have been approved for an 8th cruise. So that will be $800 OBC on Carnival since the restart, and another $100 on Princess. At current prices, the stock would have almost paid for itself.

[jimbo5544]

42 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

So, the Carnival drop in value is just fine with you because the other 2 major cruise companies did even worse? 🤣

I think it is because the entire market is down big time……add to that the price of oil……add to that they are just started recovering from being locked down for 16 months……I could go on but not sure why.

[IntrepidFromDC]

58 minutes ago, mowogo said:

You’ve just presented the case as to why even as a fan of Carnival I wouldn’t touch their stock right now.  Carnival Corporation is a company set up perfectly for a bankruptcy that will keep most of the ships running while discharging debt.  

good analysis - doesn't mean they will go bankrupt but as someone else posted, they continue to lose money cruise after cruise and the economy tanking with high inflation is not good for companies that need consumers to be willing to part with discretionary dollars... I agree that management has cleverly positioned them to emerge from a restructure with a fraction of the debt they currently carry, although it's the same management that bungled the OBC bonanza that has been preventing CCL from being cash-flow positive for three consecutive quarters.  I'll start buying with a little more data, knowing the risk of restructure bankruptcy is possibly lurking.