Could the HAL Brand be sold off?

[Guest ldtr]

Just now, Expo67 said:

On a latest HAL Cruise/Land Tour this exact topic came up many times and especially on the land portion. The merger with Princess seemed be bought of for several. One is Princess has many newer larger ships for the family Caribbean attraction while HAL has many newer smaller ships that could cater to the exotic itineraries and ports only available to smaller ships. Then we get to the land options for Alaska with both lines have a lodge at Denali and Princess having several other lodges accessible in Alaska while HAL has only hotel access in other locations. My guess would be a merger rather than a complete line sell off as each caters to different set of clientele. 🤔

Keep in mind HAL owns the hotel chain that they use (Westmark).

[john the pick]

Seems that a sale of HAL might be more likely following the announcement today from Morgan Stanley cutting their target valuation of CCL in half and warning that the stock had the potential to go to 0 given their current debt loads if there is another "shock" to cruise travel

[AFNavigator]

18 hours ago, Expo67 said:

On a latest HAL Cruise/Land Tour this exact topic came up many times and especially on the land portion. The merger with Princess seemed be bought of for several. One is Princess has many newer larger ships for the family Caribbean attraction while HAL has many newer smaller ships that could cater to the exotic itineraries and ports only available to smaller ships. Then we get to the land options for Alaska with both lines have a lodge at Denali and Princess having several other lodges accessible in Alaska while HAL has only hotel access in other locations. My guess would be a merger rather than a complete line sell off as each caters to different set of clientele. 🤔

The catch to a Princess/HAL merger is that both are already CCL assets.  A merger likely would save CCL some money, especially administrative, but nowhere near as much as realized by selling assets.

 

I could see another wave of older ship sell off across the CCL fleets though.  I hate to say it but the Volendam and Zaandam likely would be very vulnerable along with a number of older CCL, Princess, Aida or Costa ships.

[Expo67]

21 hours ago, ldtr said:

Keep in mind HAL owns the hotel chain that they use (Westmark).

Exactly. For example HAL owns Westmark Hotels and Princess uses The Captain Cook hotel in Anchorage. So with a merger both lines could use the current Princess Lodges and Westmark hotels as part of their land packages. 

[Expo67]

2 hours ago, AFNavigator said:

The catch to a Princess/HAL merger is that both are already CCL assets.  A merger likely would save CCL some money, especially administrative, but nowhere near as much as realized by selling assets.

 

I could see another wave of older ship sell off across the CCL fleets though.  I hate to say it but the Volendam and Zaandam likely would be very vulnerable along with a number of older CCL, Princess, Aida or Costa ships.

100% in agreement as they both shed their older ships and keep the easier maintained and more profitable newer ships. 👍

[BermudaBound2014]

6 hours ago, SargassoPirate said:

As for me, give me a bottle of Corona with a slice of lime on the promenade of a floating petri dish and I'm good.  Vaxxed and boosted and ready to get on with living.

 

Unfortunately, there aren't enough people with your mindset. CCL sailed with only 69% occupancy last quarter. They are on record stating they need 95% to turn a profit. That is impossible to sustain with current protocols. Sure there is the occasional popular ship, sailing at a popular time frame, offering a popular itinerary, at a popular price that is drawing 100% occupancy, but when you average occupancy over all the ships, the numbers fall off drastically. 

 

Lots of people are Vaxxed, boosted, and getting on with living. They just aren't choosing to cruise.

 

[Mary229]

I don’t think there will be a final blow to the industry.  Cruising will remain.  My view of the stabilized remaining industry on the other side assumes what many of us have said since 2020 and I continue to say.  Cruising will not be the “affordable” vacation for many years.  It will become either exotic voyages for travelers, get aways for the well to do or transoceanic transportation to compete with first class air transportation.  If you plan to do the Caribbean for $499 a week, it is not going to be available.  The affordable vacation is there now while they sort it out and generate cash flow and it will return years down the road but I think between 2024 and 2027 you will see a significant shift. 

[Stateroom_Sailor]

17 hours ago, john the pick said:

Seems that a sale of HAL might be more likely following the announcement today from Morgan Stanley cutting their target valuation of CCL in half and warning that the stock had the potential to go to 0 given their current debt loads if there is another "shock" to cruise travel

 

Buy the dip, great opportunity to pick up 100 shares for perks!

[iancal]

Of course the HAL brand could be sold off.  So could any of the others.  There is nothing magic about any of their brands.  They all have a financial value.

 

The real question is will  Carnival make a decision to sell a brand and if so which brand would yield the best return.  Everything is for sale...it is just a matter of price and terms.

[iancal]

25 minutes ago, LAFFNVEGAS said:

While to you it may not be a hassle to you but to thousands it is, some who work even those who don't it is just one more hurdle to have to do prior to leaving on a cruise. Then add on flying over seas, getting there several days in advance because again the airlines are yet another hassle with travel but now you are in a foreign to you country. Your health care or insurance does not cover the cost in another country you have to attempt to find a place to get it done, most likely you do not know the language and hope you can understand what they are saying then hope it is negative but wait what happens if it is positive. Those are all fears problems and complaints of many cruisers that have said this hassle is no longer worth it. 

Google is your friend.  It is how I found out where we could easily get our antigen tests.

 

 At one point we were considering Greece.  At the time  a negative test was required to return home thru Athens.

 

Did a quick google search.  Came up with site that had a dozen labs in Athens and suburbs (Glyfada, Piraeus, etc)  that did the tests.  Web sites indicated time for results, whether they spoke English, cost, and how to book online, etc.

 

Cost was incredible as I recall.  Greek Gov't place a ceiling of 60E on a PCR test at the time when our local labs were charging $200 CAD.   The labs on the web site listing were charging between 40 and 60E for a PCR test.

 

Our antigen tests in Toronto cost $40. Others nearby were $30.   Cruisers have reported that they are available in suburban pharmacies (Walmart /Costco) for as little as $18. and $20 CAD respectively however we have no direct knowledge of this.

Edited June 30, 2022 by iancal

[lazey1]

6 hours ago, Stateroom_Sailor said:

 

Buy the dip, great opportunity to pick up 100 shares for perks!

Great opportunity to buy additional shares at this low price, hold them for a few years, keep the origional 100 shares for the "perks" then sell the balance of the shares when the prices go up. That is what my financial advisor recommended.

Jane

[friendswithdave]

I am trying to buy shares right now as well. That said, I understand this is not a risk free purchase.

 

[rkacruiser]

2 hours ago, lazey1 said:

Great opportunity to buy additional shares at this low price, hold them for a few years, keep the origional 100 shares for the "perks" then sell the balance of the shares when the prices go up. That is what my financial advisor recommended.

Jane

 

A variation of this theme is what I am considering.  I have two positions in CCL.  Sell one now, wait for the Wash Sale rules no longer apply, which I think will be still  less than what it is currently, and replace those shares (and maybe more) as the CCL price recovers.  A sale of that position will result in a nice tax loss which will be of benefit both for my Federal and State income taxes.  

 

22 hours ago, Expo67 said:

Exactly. For example HAL owns Westmark Hotels and Princess uses The Captain Cook hotel in Anchorage. So with a merger both lines could use the current Princess Lodges and Westmark hotels as part of their land packages. 

 

Before Pre-Covid, when hotel vacancies were "tight", cross placing of guests did occur, I think.  I know of one occasion when an "outside the family of HAL/Princess hotels" needed to be used.  

[Mary229]

9 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

A variation of this theme is what I am considering.  I have two positions in CCL.  Sell one now, wait for the Wash Sale rules no longer apply, which I think will be still  less than what it is

This is what I do.  There will always be unexpected gains from a well diversified portfolio with some mutual funds.  Offsetting losses accomplishes both the tax savings but it also takes potentially dead money and has it earning again.   CCL, for me, is strictly an OBC generator. Without a benefit it has no place in my portfolio. I need 100 shares and I would rather own them at the lowest sensible value.    Currently the benefit has been voted for and ratified until 2023 and I have all of my OBC’s in place.   
 

I agree with others in that you shouldn’t be paying off cruises in advance of final payment.  For me most of my cruises are locked in with the FCD, with a total cost of $100 to $300 per person until final payment.  A minor loss even if irritating.   The 60 to 90 day window should be enough visibility with the CCL brands.   In the past I only ever had 1 cruise booked at a time.  I did change that, I know have 4 or 5 booked with the FCD program as an inflation hedge. My prices are now locked as I expect fares to increase rapidly very soon.  
 

I hardly expect any CCL brand to run like a fugitive, any sale or merger would be a publicly announced event. 

[BermudaBound2014]

On 6/30/2022 at 9:29 AM, Mary229 said:

I don’t think there will be a final blow to the industry.  

 

That was me who said the 'final blow' statement and in retrospect that really wasn't clear. For clarity, by 'final blow' I mean the final straw that breaks the camels back and changes cruising from the lines we know to whatever new standard emerge. But I do agree that the glory days of cruising are likely behind us (at least until the cruise lines can get their debt under control).

 

On 6/30/2022 at 9:29 AM, Mary229 said:

Cruising will remain.  My view of the stabilized remaining industry on the other side assumes what many of us have said since 2020 and I continue to say.  Cruising will not be the “affordable” vacation for many years.  It will become either exotic voyages for travelers, get aways for the well to do or transoceanic transportation to compete with first class air transportation.  If you plan to do the Caribbean for $499 a week, it is not going to be available.  The affordable vacation is there now while they sort it out and generate cash flow and it will return years down the road but I think between 2024 and 2027 you will see a significant shift. 

 

I have mixed feelings here. Absolutely, cruising will always remain.  All evidence points to exotic and luxury lines having the greatest staying power in this economy. However; I don't see prices rising significantly for the masses. There is too much supply (and more ships entering every day with 100,000+ berths on order). The mainstream larger ships are still going to need bodies onboard and to do that the price of entry needs to remain attractive. I see amenities onboard rising in price and services being reduced with added cost, but I think cruise lines are still going to be forced to offer great prices to fill ships (especially to those of us who understand the game of last minute booking). 

[cabland]

Honestly, once I saw the debt loads the cruise lines were taking on during Covid, I just assumed "OK, these guys are ALL going to file for bankruptcy - it is just a hole too big to dig themselves out of".  I still believe that 100%.  Now, does that mean the cruise lines will "go away" - unlikely.  Heck, the assets (those big ships) are primarily of use to, well, cruise lines!  What will likely happen is some form of re-organization where they walk away from the massive debts and their creditors/shareholders get hosed...potentially along with anyone who has FCC, deposits, etc. 

[iancal]

 

Our pre covid cruise line preferences may not hold post covid and beyond.  

 

I do not see a universal  doom and gloom outcome but there will definitely be changes across the board with  the cruise holding companies and the individual brands themselves.

Edited July 1, 2022 by iancal

[BermudaBound2014]

4 hours ago, cabland said:

Honestly, once I saw the debt loads the cruise lines were taking on during Covid, I just assumed "OK, these guys are ALL going to file for bankruptcy - it is just a hole too big to dig themselves out of".  I still believe that 100%.  Now, does that mean the cruise lines will "go away" - unlikely.  Heck, the assets (those big ships) are primarily of use to, well, cruise lines!  What will likely happen is some form of re-organization where they walk away from the massive debts and their creditors/shareholders get hosed...potentially along with anyone who has FCC, deposits, etc. 

 

Bingo ^

 

Edited July 1, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[crusinbanjo]

4 hours ago, cabland said:

Honestly, once I saw the debt loads the cruise lines were taking on during Covid, I just assumed "OK, these guys are ALL going to file for bankruptcy - it is just a hole too big to dig themselves out of".  I still believe that 100%.  Now, does that mean the cruise lines will "go away" - unlikely.  Heck, the assets (those big ships) are primarily of use to, well, cruise lines!  What will likely happen is some form of re-organization where they walk away from the massive debts and their creditors/shareholders get hosed...potentially along with anyone who has FCC, deposits, etc. 

likely you are correct.  We saw much the same in the late 1080’s and early 1990’s as M & A activity went bust.

[Nymich]

This has turned into the kind of thread that if all this doom and gloom doesn't happen nobody will come back to post I was wrong on this one.

Edited July 1, 2022 by Nymich

[BermudaBound2014]

5 minutes ago, Nymich said:

This is the kind of thread that if all this doom and gloom doesn't happen nobody will come back to post I was wrong on this one.

 

Much like those in the stock threads that cheered on cruise stock, staying it would skyrocket once ships began sailing again. Well, ships began sailing last July and here we are. CCL has lost nearly 70% of it's stock since this great cruise comeback. Those of us who went short were called crazy, yet we have tripled our money already.  Human nature.

 

 

Edited July 1, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[Nymich]

1 minute ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Much like al those in the stock threads that stated cruise stock would skyrocket once ships began sailing again. Well, ships began sailing last July and here we are,.CCL has lost nearly 70% of it's stock since this great cruise comeback. 

 

 

Did anyone come back to those stock threads and admit they missed this one?  Lol

[BermudaBound2014]

5 minutes ago, Nymich said:

Did anyone come back to those stock threads and admit they missed this one?  Lol

 

Not a chance lol

[rkacruiser]

19 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Much like those in the stock threads that cheered on cruise stock, staying it would skyrocket once ships began sailing again. Well, ships began sailing last July and here we are. CCL has lost nearly 70% of it's stock since this great cruise comeback.

 

Don't forget the changes that have taken place since July, 2021.  Nobody's crystal ball could have forecast most of what has taken place.  My crystal ball remains in the shop,  Is yours working?  

[Mary229]

35 minutes ago, Nymich said:

Did anyone come back to those stock threads and admit they missed this one?  Lol

No and what is weird, like the Covid threads, there are people who come out of the woodwork just to comment on this single topic.  It is like they have an axe to grind or a position to cover😉