reallyitsmema Posted August 30, 2023 #51 Share Posted August 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, Heidi pour another Beer said: Wow this is great. That is Hurricane Franklin affecting Bermuda. If you pulldown on the "watch another webcam" at the top, there are a bunch of webcams at various ports including Tampa. 🙂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starry Eyes Posted August 30, 2023 #52 Share Posted August 30, 2023 35 minutes ago, Heidi pour another Beer said: I am not concerned about the port either. I am just wondering if we will make it to Bermuda. Have you any indication if they are changing itinerary for the next cruise? The Captain’s noon announcement discussed the impact of Idalia on weather in CoCoCay tomorrow. I have not heard any discussion further than that. Storm course, speed, and strength are difficult to predict multiple days out. I think it is currently too soon to know if our itinerary will change. I want to sail even if our itinerary changes. You? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heidi pour another Beer Posted August 30, 2023 #53 Share Posted August 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, Starry Eyes said: The Captain’s noon announcement discussed the impact of Idalia on weather in CoCoCay tomorrow. I have not heard any discussion further than that. Storm course, speed, and strength are difficult to predict multiple days out. I think it is currently too soon to know if our itinerary will change. I want to sail even if our itinerary changes. You? Absolutely. What did he say about Cococay? Please post if you hear anything 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedIguana Posted August 30, 2023 #54 Share Posted August 30, 2023 9 hours ago, ONECRUISER said: Agree, cone changed a lot in last 12hrs, Back then showed southern edge by Clearwater, now even further north then Steinhatchee, change of about 130 miles miles... Flying into Tampa myself Saturday afternoon leaving Monday for B3B on Serenade OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 31.5N 83.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 35.0N 79.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 86.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 27/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z Position wise they were off by less than 60 miles 4 days out, when it was still a depression. TROPICAL STORM IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023 0300 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 85.0W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 130SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 85.0W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 85.1W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.7N 85.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 45SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 130SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 26.2N 84.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.0N 83.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 80SW 80NW. And less than 10 miles 30 hours out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starry Eyes Posted August 30, 2023 #55 Share Posted August 30, 2023 (edited) 39 minutes ago, Heidi pour another Beer said: Absolutely. What did he say about Cococay? Please post if you hear anything 🙂 Captain said we might get some wind and rain from outer bands/ influence of Idalia in CoCoCay tomorrow, mostly in the morning. Trivial, I’m sure, compared to those who were/are really in the path of the storm. I will post if I hear rumors of itinerary changes. Edited August 30, 2023 by Starry Eyes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedIguana Posted August 30, 2023 #56 Share Posted August 30, 2023 10 hours ago, ONECRUISER said: Agree, cone changed a lot in last 12hrs, Back then showed southern edge by Clearwater, now even further north then Steinhatchee, change of about 130 miles miles.. The cone is the forecast track plus a certain distance on either side to account for an amount of error based on the forecast period. It will narrow from about 210 miles wide to 50 miles wide from 3 days out to 1 day out (actual distance may vary based on forecast confidence). The cone came about due to concern people were focusing on the forecast line they used to use, assuming they were out of the range of forecast error. So even if the actual forecast track does not change by much, the cone will. Now there is debate on the effectiveness of the cone as some people believe the cone to be the area that will be affected by the storm, not the storm forecast track plus error. Here is the archive link of the cone plus line from 5 days out, they did pretty good with this one. Notice the forecast track (line) is pretty consistent as far as track (yeah time and intensity will always be off a little), and the cone narrows as to the landfall position as it gets closer. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ONECRUISER Posted August 30, 2023 #57 Share Posted August 30, 2023 2 hours ago, RedIguana said: The cone is the forecast track plus a certain distance on either side to account for an amount of error based on the forecast period. It will narrow from about 210 miles wide to 50 miles wide from 3 days out to 1 day out (actual distance may vary based on forecast confidence). The cone came about due to concern people were focusing on the forecast line they used to use, assuming they were out of the range of forecast error. So even if the actual forecast track does not change by much, the cone will. Now there is debate on the effectiveness of the cone as some people believe the cone to be the area that will be affected by the storm, not the storm forecast track plus error. Here is the archive link of the cone plus line from 5 days out, they did pretty good with this one. Notice the forecast track (line) is pretty consistent as far as track (yeah time and intensity will always be off a little), and the cone narrows as to the landfall position as it gets closer. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line True, though in only watching that last 12 hrs it shift more North then eastern predictions sparing Tampa area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heidi pour another Beer Posted August 30, 2023 #58 Share Posted August 30, 2023 It's official, email received. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunshine3601 Posted August 30, 2023 #59 Share Posted August 30, 2023 That itinerary looks decent, better than nothing! Glad to see they are giving Bermudians time to recover from Cat 2 Franklin passing by and whatever comes from Idalia. They are very resilient islanders and have good systems in place but will still take time to unboard and open back up. Hope you have a great cruise with perfect weather and smooth seas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare twangster Posted August 31, 2023 #60 Share Posted August 31, 2023 It was a little breezy here on the Central East coast of Florida today but no impact. A few palm fronds down like with any sort of wind. Clear tonight, little wind. Super moon tonight. Got this a few minutes ago from my backyard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starry Eyes Posted August 31, 2023 #61 Share Posted August 31, 2023 On 8/30/2023 at 6:20 PM, Heidi pour another Beer said: It's official, email received. Chat on board says Mariner will use the above itinerary, conditions permitting. They will evaluate the position of the storms, etc while we are in CoCoCay on 9/3, making a decision whether Bermuda is a go. Rumor has it there is a back up plan, though I do not know the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heidi pour another Beer Posted September 1, 2023 #62 Share Posted September 1, 2023 11 hours ago, Starry Eyes said: Chat on board says Mariner will use the above itinerary, conditions permitting. They will evaluate the position of the storms, etc while we are in CoCoCay on 9/3, making a decision whether Bermuda is a go. Rumor has it there is a back up plan, though I do not know the details. Thank you so much for taking the time to keep me informed. We board at 10:30 see you soon! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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