Villa Vie Residences

[UKCruiseJeff]

13 hours ago, MacMadame said:

Btw, there are a number of industries that charge a monthly fee that they swear won't be raised over time. The way they work is;
1) The fee is raised for new customers so there is more money coming in even if earlier customers aren't paying their way anymore

2) They charge a lot for add-ons and even sometimes they make things add-ons that used to be included (cruises do this also)
3) Quality of the service goes down as the money doesn't go as far

Since those industries are still in business, I don't think it's unreasonable to think VVR could do those things too and stay in business. I think their problems were bigger than that and mostly centered around not having a ship and then buying a ship in bad condition which I am sure played havoc with their budget.

This is not to say their business model was perfect and absolutely would have succeeded. But if they had bought a better ship and had sailed within a month or two of the original date, I think they would have been okay for a while even a couple of years. And, they could always find another company to buy them out and that company could offer the existing cabin owners a new contract with less favorable terms (something that also happens with industries with a similar model).

 

There are several reasons why it is extremely unlikely to work.

 

Firstly for the model to work indefinitely in the way you describe you would need to have an almost unlimited supply of cabins to offer in order to receive new “increased” monthly fees otherwise as soon as you sell the last one your increasing revenue hits the buffers.  Secondly in order to reduce costs their has to be a substantial share of the cost base to be discretionary.  But virtually all of the expenditure in this project is not discretionary eg maintenance, fuel, insurance, fees, staff etc etc.  There is very little of the total cake that can be salami sliced.

 

Cash-flow is a very unforgiving master.  It will implode when two converging factors meet.  Static revenue with exploding costs. Implosion normally starts with a single unpaid bill or unaffordable essential bill and in very short time the card tower collapses. 

 

Jeff

[Travel_Around_The_World]

Has the ship moved today or not? I see a new date of Sep 30 and no traffic history. 🤔

[chengkp75]

11 minutes ago, Travel_Around_The_World said:

Has the ship moved today or not? I see a new date of Sep 30 and no traffic history. 🤔

No, still at H&W dock.

[UKCruiseJeff]

Presumably purchasers are starting to plan how and where they wish to spend christmas this year. 

[rebeccalouiseagain]

Ok- this article came out today- very interesting. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20pn3wyykyo

 

Secondly- what kind of bs is VVR feeding the public and passengers now.  Only one is in use- D1 (one ship on saturday and one ship on Sunday).  So VVR saying they need to change ports for the ship to sail are unfounded.  That's a lie.  There may be a delay for a variety of reasons- but what Mike is saying is patently false and is being used to blame the H&W.  This man's lies know no bounds.  The next cruise ship is scheduled for October 4, after that one is in port on October 28th.  I will say- given Mike's boy who cries wolf reputation- the port of Belfast isn't going to drop everything for him with no certifications.  He doesn't have them.

Edited 7 hours ago by rebeccalouiseagain

[Travel_Around_The_World]

25 minutes ago, rebeccalouiseagain said:

Ok- this article came out today- very interesting. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20pn3wyykyo

 

Secondly- what kind of bs is VVR feeding the public and passengers now.  Only one is in use- D1 (one ship on saturday and one ship on Sunday).  So VVR saying they need to change ports for the ship to sail are unfounded.  That's a lie.  There may be a delay for a variety of reasons- but what Mike is saying is patently false and is being used to blame the H&W.  This man's lies know no bounds.  The next cruise ship is scheduled for October 4, after that one is in port on October 28th.  I will say- given Mike's boy who cries wolf reputation- the port of Belfast isn't going to drop everything for him with no certifications.  He doesn't have them.

That link did not say anything about changing ports. But it was hilarious nevertheless.  He talks about money like he is some hotshot forgetting that he is a couple years removed from trying to get free parking passes to a football game because he couldn't afford 50 bucks. Oops, did I say too much? 🤣

[chengkp75]

I didn't see anything in that article about changing ports, maybe I missed it?  But, the main problem right now is that since H&W are in receivership, no civilians can be let onto the premises, so they would have to move "berth" maybe to the Belfast cruise docks, to load passengers.

[MacMadame]

This part cracked me up:

"We planned for a little more than half of that. So we're about £10m over budget.

"It's not the end of the world, but, yeah, it's certainly a little unexpected.”

 

So being out 10m pounds not originally planned for is not the end of the world? Definitely a salesman and not a businessman. He actually reminds me a bit of my father had so many schemes that never worked.

 

And blaming the people doing the certifications for not communicating well is pretty rich too.

 

7 hours ago, UKCruiseJeff said:

Firstly for the model to work indefinitely in the way you describe you would need to have an almost unlimited supply of cabins to offer in order to receive new “increased” monthly fees otherwise as soon as you sell the last one your increasing revenue hits the buffers.

People will decide after a while to bow out and resell their cabin back to the cruise line. Plus, as I said above, they aren't selling all of them. So they could theoretically raise the price for people "renting" a cabin on segments enough to make up for the deficit. And start charging for things that were originally included.

 

I'm not saying that it definitely would have worked. Obviously, there is only so much you can charge people before aren't willing to pay. Just that I can see why people didn't think it was a scam from day one. On the surface, it could have worked.

[rebeccalouiseagain]

15 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

I didn't see anything in that article about changing ports, maybe I missed it?  But, the main problem right now is that since H&W are in receivership, no civilians can be let onto the premises, so they would have to move "berth" maybe to the Belfast cruise docks, to load passengers.

He has told the passengers that he has to find a new port to sail out of because there is no room in Belfast.  He was on the schedule for today but that ship has sailed (pun intended).  Terminal D1 is in use tomorrow and Sunday but Monday is available, Tuesday is available, Wednesday is available, Thursday is available.  What I'm getting at- is he is not being forth coming with the passengers.  The Coast Guard inspection is today and there may or may not be issues to resolve. They also need their radio certificate prior to sailing.  They also many need to pay their dock fees of approximately $130,000 (based on my calculations of $27,000 a month).  I wouldn't assume he is current on them.  We shall SEA...

Edited 6 hours ago by rebeccalouiseagain

[rebeccalouiseagain]

15 minutes ago, MacMadame said:

This part cracked me up:

"We planned for a little more than half of that. So we're about £10m over budget.

"It's not the end of the world, but, yeah, it's certainly a little unexpected.”

 

So being out 10m pounds not originally planned for is not the end of the world? Definitely a salesman and not a businessman. He actually reminds me a bit of my father had so many schemes that never worked.

 

And blaming the people doing the certifications for not communicating well is pretty rich too.

 

People will decide after a while to bow out and resell their cabin back to the cruise line. Plus, as I said above, they aren't selling all of them. So they could theoretically raise the price for people "renting" a cabin on segments enough to make up for the deficit. And start charging for things that were originally included.

 

I'm not saying that it definitely would have worked. Obviously, there is only so much you can charge people before aren't willing to pay. Just that I can see why people didn't think it was a scam from day one. On the surface, it could have worked.

You have to have a product that people can find.  Cruisers use travel agents and VVR doesn't cooperate with travel agents (red flag).  The product does not sell itself.  The ship looks old and tired and people will look for reviews.  The itinerary is not great-there are no ports that aren't visited by other cruise lines.  The ship is small and has few, if any, amenities.  Why would anyone book a segment on this ship when other cruise lines offer a better product, a similar itinerary and for the same price?

[rebeccalouiseagain]

2 hours ago, Travel_Around_The_World said:

Has the ship moved today or not? I see a new date of Sep 30 and no traffic history. 🤔

Yes the ship is scheduled to sail from SRQ which means the repair facility on September 30th.  To where?  Villa Vie sent out the new itinerary to passengers and it says that they depart on September 28th from Belfast (that's already inaccurate) and from there it is as follows...Brest France, Bilboa Spain, Vigo, Spain, Porto, Portugal, Porto Delgada (Azores) Portugal, Horta Portugal, St. George's, Bermuda, Freeport, Nassau, Ocho Rios, Jamaica, and Willemtstad, Curacao. We shall SEA

[Giovanni66]

“Ultimately, things haven't exactly gone our way," Mr Petterson continued.

"And although we're crossing our fingers that everything goes beautifully we don't know.

 

“We're about £22m deep so far," he explained.

"We planned for a little more than half of that. So we're about £10m over budget.

"It's not the end of the world, but, yeah, it's certainly a little unexpected.”

 

"There are always going to be haters but the non-believers will be believers as we sail out over the next number of days."

 

Do CEO's speak to the press like that ? This does not look good...

 

 

Edited 5 hours ago by Giovanni66

[chengkp75]

12 minutes ago, rebeccalouiseagain said:

They also many need to pay their dock fees of approximately $130,000 (based on my calculations of $27,000 a month). 

Is this a figure for the cruise ship docks, or H&W's wet berth, where the ship has been for the last few months?  I just looked at the Belfast harbor fees, and for Odyssey to enter port cost about $1100, and then the fee for H&W's berth is about $6500/month.  Yes, a non-trading ship at one of the city docks would be close to $27k a month, but I don't think she has been anywhere other than H&W.

[rebeccalouiseagain]

9 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

Is this a figure for the cruise ship docks, or H&W's wet berth, where the ship has been for the last few months?  I just looked at the Belfast harbor fees, and for Odyssey to enter port cost about $1100, and then the fee for H&W's berth is about $6500/month.  Yes, a non-trading ship at one of the city docks would be close to $27k a month, but I don't think she has been anywhere other than H&W.

Thank you for clarifying that.  I found dock fees at one point and they were roughly $30 a day per ft.  So that's what I was calculating.  Sort of like when you park at the long term parking at the airport versus daily/hourly parking

Edited 5 hours ago by rebeccalouiseagain

[rebeccalouiseagain]

11 minutes ago, Giovanni66 said:

“Ultimately, things haven't exactly gone our way," Mr Petterson continued.

"And although we're crossing our fingers that everything goes beautifully we don't know.

 

“We're about £22m deep so far," he explained.

"We planned for a little more than half of that. So we're about £10m over budget.

"It's not the end of the world, but, yeah, it's certainly a little unexpected.”

 

"There are always going to be haters but the non-believers will be believers as we sail out over the next number of days."

 

Do CEO's speak to the press like that ? This does not look good...

 

 

He also leaves everything wide open to speculation. 

[chengkp75]

12 minutes ago, rebeccalouiseagain said:

Thank you for clarifying that.  I found dock fees at one point and they were roughly $30 a day per ft.  So that's what I was calculating.  Sort of like when you park at the long term parking at the airport versus daily/hourly parking

Typically, the only vessels charged dock fees "by the foot" are yachts.  Ships are usually charged by Gross Tonnage.  And, at 642 feet long, at your dock rates, this would be $577,000/month.  Maybe it was $30/ft/month, that comes out to be $19,000/month.

[UKCruiseJeff]

1 hour ago, MacMadame said:

People will decide after a while to bow out and resell their cabin back to the cruise line. Plus, as I said above, they aren't selling all of them. So they could theoretically raise the price for people "renting" a cabin on segments enough to make up for the deficit. And start charging for things that were originally included.

 

I'm not saying that it definitely would have worked. Obviously, there is only so much you can charge people before aren't willing to pay. Just that I can see why people didn't think it was a scam from day one. On the surface, it could have worked.

 

1. People can only sell their cabin back to the cruise-line and receive payment only if the owners respond and if they are cooperative that the cash is there.  That for so many reasons seems totally unlikely.

 

2.  You seem to be visualising a pseudo Ponzi scheme. A small number of new owners or renters can take up all of the slack of everything. But in a Ponzi scheme  it blossoms because the potential punters are the whole wide world population.  In this scheme it is only unsold/unrented cabins that can be harvested.

 

It cannot work in any circumstances can it. 

 

Jeff

 

[Travel_Around_The_World]

39 minutes ago, rebeccalouiseagain said:

Yes the ship is scheduled to sail from SRQ which means the repair facility on September 30th.  To where?  Villa Vie sent out the new itinerary to passengers and it says that they depart on September 28th from Belfast (that's already inaccurate) and from there it is as follows...Brest France, Bilboa Spain, Vigo, Spain, Porto, Portugal, Porto Delgada (Azores) Portugal, Horta Portugal, St. George's, Bermuda, Freeport, Nassau, Ocho Rios, Jamaica, and Willemtstad, Curacao. We shall SEA

Holy Macaroni and Cheese. They are literally killing the entire Caribbean itinerary. Mexico, Colombia, Honduras, Belize, Cayman's, most of Jamaica ...but hey, important is we leave the most crappiest port (Freeport) of the entire Caribbean on the schedule. 🤣

[rebeccalouiseagain]

11 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

Typically, the only vessels charged dock fees "by the foot" are yachts.  Ships are usually charged by Gross Tonnage.  And, at 642 feet long, at your dock rates, this would be $577,000/month.  Maybe it was $30/ft/month, that comes out to be $19,000/month.

Thank you for clarifying.

[rebeccalouiseagain]

Just now, Travel_Around_The_World said:

Holy Macaroni and Cheese. They are literally killing the entire Caribbean itinerary. Mexico, Colombia, Honduras, Belize, Cayman's, most of Jamaica ...but hey, important is we leave the most crappiest port (Freeport) of the entire Caribbean on the schedule. 🤣

It's prudent to do the first two weeks in Europe avoiding hurricane season- and in case the ship has issues (probably will!) Frankly all cruise lines do the Caribbean in the fall- so not exciting for most passengers to do that segment, but it is disappointing for those who planned to catch up with the ship in Miami- then in the Bahamas.  I know passengers are really upset about these last minute changes.

[Travel_Around_The_World]

4 minutes ago, rebeccalouiseagain said:

It's prudent to do the first two weeks in Europe avoiding hurricane season- and in case the ship has issues (probably will!) Frankly all cruise lines do the Caribbean in the fall- so not exciting for most passengers to do that segment, but it is disappointing for those who planned to catch up with the ship in Miami- then in the Bahamas.  I know passengers are really upset about these last minute changes.

Please. Cruiselines do TAs to the Caribbean in October and November for decades. Heck, one of my earliest TAs was in late September but most of them in the first half of October. The Caribbean is a year-round cruise destination in forever. Hurricane season or not.
If you take the ship out it is either ready or not. Puffing around in Europe (most passengers have been for the last 4 months) for another 2 or 3 weeks doesn't make a difference. 

[walkingsoon]

"So they could theoretically raise the price for people "renting" a cabin on segments enough to make up for the deficit." 

Looking at VVR's website for segment double occupancy pp/day I see $149 inside, $224-239 ocean view and $449-$514 balcony. For those amounts, for balconies anyway, you can get on Silversea, Viking, Azamara, Oceania (R-class ships might provide the best comparison for size and age) and Seabourn. That's a tough sell for VVR. You can get below those prices on HAL, Princess, RCI and Cunard. You can get way below on P&O, MSC and Costa (which might be better comparisons for probable service).

 

"Why would anyone book a segment on this ship when other cruise lines offer a better product, a similar itinerary and for the same price?"

Probably just people considering buying in. 

 

 "The itinerary is not great-there are no ports that aren't visited by other cruise lines."

Actually, to be fair, I think the itinerary is their strongest selling point. I like the pace and the multi-day stops, with 40 days to cruise Brazil for example. I'd love to do the whole itinerary.

 

Not a hater here. I hope this company pulls it off and proves my suspicions wrong. Nice size ship, and a great idea. For a minute, I thought the onboard vibe might be a plus as well. Some six months ago they were touting their transparency. Now it seems just the opposite. I'm curious to see if any balanced reviews come out after they set sail. 

 

Walkingsoon

 

 

 

[rebeccalouiseagain]

3 minutes ago, walkingsoon said:

"So they could theoretically raise the price for people "renting" a cabin on segments enough to make up for the deficit." 

Looking at VVR's website for segment double occupancy pp/day I see $149 inside, $224-239 ocean view and $449-$514 balcony. For those amounts, for balconies anyway, you can get on Silversea, Viking, Azamara, Oceania (R-class ships might provide the best comparison for size and age) and Seabourn. That's a tough sell for VVR. You can get below those prices on HAL, Princess, RCI and Cunard. You can get way below on P&O, MSC and Costa (which might be better comparisons for probable service).

 

"Why would anyone book a segment on this ship when other cruise lines offer a better product, a similar itinerary and for the same price?"

Probably just people considering buying in. 

 

 "The itinerary is not great-there are no ports that aren't visited by other cruise lines."

Actually, to be fair, I think the itinerary is their strongest selling point. I like the pace and the multi-day stops, with 40 days to cruise Brazil for example. I'd love to do the whole itinerary.

 

Not a hater here. I hope this company pulls it off and proves my suspicions wrong. Nice size ship, and a great idea. For a minute, I thought the onboard vibe might be a plus as well. Some six months ago they were touting their transparency. Now it seems just the opposite. I'm curious to see if any balanced reviews come out after they set sail. 

 

Walkingsoon

 

 

 

Yeah- I was referring to the Caribbean segment- which doesn't go to any exciting ports.  Also- do you really think that in all the overnight ports scheduled that they keep border patrol and security there 24/7? Normally they have people there until the ship sails way in the evening.  VVR has already made changes to the itinerary and will continue to and can per their terms and conditions.  Heck they haven't sailed anywhere yet.

[chengkp75]

8 minutes ago, rebeccalouiseagain said:

Also- do you really think that in all the overnight ports scheduled that they keep border patrol and security there 24/7?

"Border Patrol" or customs and immigration don't need to be there for overnight stays.  Once they clear the ship, folks can come and go as they wish.  Security is the responsibility of the port, not the ship, so yes, they will be there 24/7.

[rebeccalouiseagain]

31 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

"Border Patrol" or customs and immigration don't need to be there for overnight stays.  Once they clear the ship, folks can come and go as they wish.  Security is the responsibility of the port, not the ship, so yes, they will be there 24/7.

I don't follow, sorry.  When you get on and off a ship there are always customs agents there.  They have to make sure that only ticketed passengers get on the ship.  So I'm not following this.  What I said do you really think that there will be security and custom agents on there- on the pier 24/7?  VVR doesn't even put on their itinerary that the ship is docked.  So tenders would have to be available for 24 hours to shuffle passengers to and from the ship 24/7.   I'm not saying it can't happen- just don't think it will.