Swinden

Hey Jim,

We are so doing the same B2B on the Edge.  Question for you - how has YOUR internet connectivity been on the Edge?  We seen to get kicked off every two to four minutes and have to reconnect to the WiFi.  Very frustrating while trying to do some work.

My wife and I were on a Celebrity cruise with a stop to Labadee. Think of it as a themed amusement park with a very small adjacent village next to it that houses most of the employees for the "park". There is a "market place" within the park for the locals, but everywhere else in the park is a non-sell zone. We did take a kayak excursion that included a stop at the village "art mart".

Hello all,

 

Don't know if that has already been posted or not. This is from Celebrity's travel alert page: https://www.celebritycruises.com/travel-alert

 

As relief efforts are in effect throughout Florida and the Caribbean, we continue to closely monitor the status of all ports of call affected by Hurricane Irma. At this time, please note the below modifications to our Celebrity Equinox sailings. Please click learn more below to see the full itinerary.

ITINERARY UPDATE: CELEBRITY EQUINOX – 9/15/17

ORIGINAL ITINERARY: scheduled departure from Port of Miami: 9/15/17 @ 3:30 pm ET

UPDATED ITINERARY: scheduled departure: 9/15/17 @ 2:30 pm ET

ORIGINAL ITINERARY: port of call & date – Key West, FL, 9/24/17

UPDATED ITINERARY: port of call & date – Falmouth, Jamaica, 9/23/17

ITINERARY UPDATE: CELEBRITY EQUINOX – 9/25/17

ORIGINAL ITINERARY PORT OF CALL/DATE/TIME: Charlotte Amalie, St. Thomas – 9/28/17; Arrival: 8:00 am, Departure: 6:00 pm

UPDATED ITINERARY PORT OF CALL/DATE/TIME: San Juan, Puerto Rico – 9/28/17; Arrival: 8:00 am, Departure: 9:00 pm

ORIGINAL ITINERARY PORT OF CALL/DATE/TIME: Tortola, British Virgin Islands – 9/29/17; Arrival: 8:00 am, Departure:6:00 pm

UPDATED ITINERARY PORT OF CALL/DATE/TIME: St. Croix – 9/29/17; Arrival: 8:00 am, Departure: 4:00 pm

ORIGINAL ITINERARY PORT OF CALL/DATE/TIME: St. Johns, Antigua – 9/30/17; Arrival: 8:00 am, Departure: 4:00 pm

UPDATED ITINERARY PORT OF CALL/DATE/TIME: Fort de France, Martinique – 9/30/17; Arrival: 9:00 am, Departure: 6:00 pm

ORIGINAL ITINERARY PORT OF CALL/DATE/TIME: Phillipsburg, St. Maarten – 10/3/17; Arrival: 9:00 am, Departure: 6:00 pm

UPDATED ITINERARY PORT OF CALL/DATE/TIME: St. Johns, Antigua – 10/3/17; Arrival: 8:00 am, Departure: 5:00 pm

 

Southeastern U.S.– Post Hurricane Irma is officially in the books and was a historic storm by many facets. Recover and reconstruction from Irma will take not only weeks, but months. In Florida and are states, power remains out for 6 million, the roads and highways are open and commercial air traffic has resumed to Florida. The Florida Keys were hit hard and still cut-off with FEMA estimating 25% of the homes destroyed and 65% suffered damage in the Keys. In the Jacksonville area, coastal flooding is still occurring through Thursday, following historic flooding on Monday.

 

 

In the Caribbean, recovery and reconstruction will take months if not over a year. Many of the islands that were devastated still do not have power and tourist are being evacuated by air and sea.

 

 

Western Atlantic – Hurricane Jose: Will meander out in the western Atlantic this week and may eventually head to the northwest. But that is some days away, and anything can happen. Jose may impact the East Coast of the U.S. next week. For the time being the storm is not a threat other than to maritime traffic.

Here is the Thursday afternoon update....

 

 

 

Western Atlantic – Major Hurricane Irma: Even though Irma is a Cat 4, she is just shy of a Cat 5 by 1 mph and the latest forecast has Irma restrengthening to a Cat 5 with winds of 160 mph when it makes landfall. Some good news, the Bahamas seem to have weathered Irma quite well. Hurricane conditions spreading westward over portions of Cuba and the central Bahamas. Hurricane Warnings extended northward along the Florida peninsula.

 

 

 

Latest data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane a few hours ago indicate that Irma's intensity continues to fluctuate, and the winds are estimated at 135 kt. The last minimum central pressure was 925 mb. Another reconnaissance plane will check Irma soon.

 

 

 

The environment is favorable for Irma to maintain its category 4 status, and only unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles could result in intensity fluctuations during the next 48 hours. The interaction of the hurricane's circulation with Cuba will probably not result in any relevant change in intensity. In summary, the NHC forecast brings Irma near south Florida as a category 4 hurricane. After landfall, interaction with land and an increase in wind shear should induce gradual weakening.

 

 

 

Satellite images and radar fixes from Cuba indicate that Irma has slowed down and is now moving toward the west or 280 degrees at about 10 kt. The hurricane should continue on this track for the next 12 hours to 24 hours, and this track will bring the core of Irma very close to the north coast of Cuba. After that time, Irma should reach the southwestern edge of the subtropical high and begin to move toward the northwest and north-northwest toward the Florida peninsula. The precise moment of this turn is still uncertain, and that is why NHC emphasizes that nobody should focus on the exact track of the center. This afternoon's NHC forecast was again adjusted a little bit westward following the trend of the ECMWF model and both the HFIP corrected consensus and the FSU Superensemble. In fact, these 3 aids continued to be tightly packed.

 

 

 

Key messages:

 

 

 

1. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to portions of the Bahamas and the north coast of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys, through Saturday.

 

 

 

2. Irma is expected to make landfall in Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of the state regardless of the exact track of the center.

 

 

 

3. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation in southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next 36 hours, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of significant storm surge flooding along the southwest coast of Florida has increased, and 8 to 12 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in this area. This is a life-threatening situation. Everyone in these areas should take all actions to protect life and property from rising water and follow evacuation instructions from local officials.

 

 

 

4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding. Total rain accumulations of 8 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected over the Florida Keys and much of the Florida peninsula through Tuesday night. The highest amounts are expected over the eastern Florida peninsula and upper Florida Keys. Irma will likely bring periods of heavy rain to much of Georgia, South Carolina, and western North Carolina early next week, including some mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. All areas seeing heavy rainfall from Irma will experience a risk of flooding and flash flooding.

 

 

 

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 76.5 West or about 195 mi...310 km E of Caibarien, Cuba and about 345 mi...555 km SE of Miami, Florida. Irma is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a turn toward the northwest is expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should continue to move near the north coast of Cuba and the central Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and be near the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula Sunday morning.

 

 

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely to continue during the next day or two, and Irma is expected to remain a powerful category 4 hurricane as it approaches Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Watches & Warnings

 

 

 

Changes with this advisory:

 

 

 

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward for east coast of Florida to Sebastian Inlet, and along the west coast of the peninsula northward to Anna Maria Island.

 

 

 

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward along the west coast of Florida to Suwannee River.

 

 

 

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued north of Venice to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, and from Ponce Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.

 

 

 

Summary of watches and warnings in effect:

 

 

 

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

 

* Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Venice

 

* Florida Keys

 

 

 

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

 

* North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County line

 

* North of Venice to Anclote River

 

* Tampa Bay

 

 

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

 

* Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Anna Maria Island

 

* Florida Keys

 

* Lake Okeechobee

 

* Florida Bay

 

* Southeastern Bahamas

 

* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and Villa Clara

 

* Central Bahamas

 

* Northwestern Bahamas

 

 

 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

 

* North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

 

* North of Anna Maria Island to the Suwannee River

 

* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas

 

 

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

 

* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

 

 

 

Hazards affecting land

 

 

 

Damage from a cat 4 hurricane direct hit: Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

 

 

 

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

 

 

 

SW Florida from Captiva to Cape Sable...8 to 12 ft

 

Cape Sable to Boca Raton including the Florida Key...5 to 10 ft

 

Venice to Captiva...5 to 8 ft

 

Anclote River to Venice including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft

 

Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County line...3 to 6 ft

 

 

 

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

 

 

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

 

 

 

Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft

 

Northwestern Bahamas...5 to 10 ft

 

Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft

 

 

 

WIND: Hurricane conditions are still occurring in portions of the southeastern and Central Bahamas. Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba through Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and in portions of southern and central Florida and the Florida Keys Saturday night or early Sunday.

 

 

 

Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in central and north Florida by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Saturday.

 

 

 

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Tuesday night:

 

 

 

Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Turks and Caicos...additional 1 to 3 inches.

 

Southern Bahamas and northern Cuba...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.

 

Southern Cuba...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

 

Jamaica...1 to 2 inches.

 

The Florida Keys, much of the Florida peninsula, and southeast Georgia...8 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.

 

Western and Northern Florida peninsula from Tampa northward...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

 

Rest of Eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and Western North Carolina...4 to 7 inches.

 

Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and southern Tennessee...2 to 5 inches.

 

 

 

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and, in some areas, mudslides.

 

 

 

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible beginning Saturday morning across south Florida.

 

 

 

SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and should start affecting portions of the southeast coast of the United States tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Central Atlantic – Major Hurricane Jose: Jose's satellite presentation continues to impress. A nearly perfectly symmetric CDO surrounds a clear eye, and there is still no sign of weakening due to shear associated with the outflow of Hurricane Irma. Since the earlier reconnaissance flight, Dvorak intensity estimates have actually increased, however they are still lower than what the plane found. The initial intensity has been held at 130 kt, out of respect of the earlier in-situ observations, but given the current cloud pattern, this could be conservative. Another reconnaissance flight this evening will give a better estimate of the intensity.

 

 

 

Internal dynamics are still expected to be the primary factor in the intensity for the next 12 hours or so. After that, all of the intensity guidance continues to show weakening throughout the forecast, though it is worth noting that Jose has already exceeded all previous forecasts. The NHC forecast continues to follow the trend of the models, but is a little above the consensus for most of the forecast period. Given the small size of the inner-core of Jose, if the shear does finally increase, weakening could occur at a faster rate than indicated.

 

 

 

The global models have come into very good agreement on the track of Jose for the next 2 days, and there is finally a high degree of confidence in that part of the forecast. The eye of Jose should turn toward the northwest tonight and pass just east of Barbuda on Saturday. Beyond 48 h, the extent to which an approaching mid-level trough will cause the hurricane to turn toward the north, and eventually toward the east still varies from model to model, however the model spread has decreased. Both the GFS and ECMWF show Jose being left behind by the trough at some point and trapped in light steering flow. The forecast continues to split these two models, and is very close to the previous official forecast.

 

 

 

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 58.3 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast tonight through the weekend. On the forecast track, the core of Jose will pass close or just east of the northern Leeward Islands.

 

 

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuation in intensity, up or down, could occur during the next day or so. Gradual weakening is expected after that. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).

 

 

 

 

 

Watches and warnings

 

 

 

Changes with this advisory:

 

 

 

The government of the Antigua has issued a Hurricane Warning for Barbuda and Anguilla.

 

 

 

The government of France has issued a Hurricane Warning for St. Martin and Barthelemy.

 

 

 

The government of Sint Maarten has issued a Hurricane Warning for Sint Maarten.

 

 

 

Summary of watches and warnings in effect:

 

 

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

 

* Barbuda and Anguilla

 

* Sint Maarten

 

* St. Martin

 

* St. Barthelemy

 

 

 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

 

* Antigua

 

 

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

 

* Antigua

 

* Saba and St. Eustatius

 

 

 

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

 

* Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis

 

* British Virgin Islands

 

* St. Thomas and St. John

 

 

 

Hazards affecting land

 

 

 

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning area on Saturday. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the northeastern Leeward Islands by Saturday morning and in the watch area in the Virgin Islands by Saturday night.

 

 

 

RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches in the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Anguilla, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Jose is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Virgin Islands and Dominica. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding.

 

 

 

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the hurricane warning areas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

 

 

 

SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

 

 

 

 

 

Gulf of Mexico – Hurricane Katina: Satellite imagery continues to show Katia becoming better organized with the formation of a small, cloud-filled eye this afternoon. The initial wind speed has been increased to 90 knots. Additional strengthening is possible prior to landfall, and Katia could still become a major hurricane, but there is only about 6 hours left for this to occur. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected, and Katia is forecast to dissipate over the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre mountains between 24 and 36 hours.

 

 

 

Katia has moved westward during the day, but a longer-term motion is still west-southwestward at 6 kt. The official track forecast was shifted to the north near landfall due to the more westerly track this afternoon. The new forecast then resumes a more southwesterly track based on northerly mid/upper-level flow seen on infrared imagery ahead of the storm and model guidance.

 

 

 

In addition to a dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds, very heavy rains associated with Katia are expected to affect eastern Mexico. These rains will likely cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

 

 

 

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Katia was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 96.5 West. Katia is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday. The center of Katia will make landfall in Mexico late tonight or early Saturday.

 

 

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some intensification is possible prior to landfall, followed by rapid weakening. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km).

 

 

 

Watches and warnings

 

 

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

 

* Cabo Rojo to Laguna Verde

 

 

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

 

* North of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco

 

* South of Laguna Verde to Puerto Veracruz.

 

 

 

Hazards affecting land

 

 

 

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels near and to the north of where Katia makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

 

 

 

RAINFALL: Katia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, and Puebla. Katia is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches over southern Tamaulipas, eastern San Luis Potosi, western Hidalgo, eastern Queretaro, and southern Veracruz through Saturday evening. Isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are possible in northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, Puebla, and San Luis Potosi. This rainfall will likely cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

 

 

 

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area by tonight or early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions expected within the tropical storm warning areas within a few hours.

 

 

 

SURF: Swells generated by Katia will continue to affect portions of the coast of southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

I realize it is a long read....but covers all three hurricanes

 

Jose is now a Cat 4 hurricane and headed towards the northern Leeward Islands.

 

 

 

 

 

Western Atlantic – Major Hurricane Irma has weakened ever so slightly and is expected to make landfall over the upper Keys as a Cat 4 storm. Expect extensive coastal flooding due to a storm surge of 6 to 12 feet and compounded with torrential rains for 4 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches. Persons in a mandatory evacuation zone need to seek shelter and not ride out this storm. This will be a destructive storm.

 

 

 

 

 

Recent data from both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes indicate that Irma's intensity remains at 130 kt, although this value could be 5 kt higher or lower. The central pressure has been oscillating around 927 mb.

 

 

 

The environment continues to be favorable for Irma to maintain its category 4 status, and only unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles could result in intensity fluctuations during the next 48 hours. Nevertheless, the NHC forecast brings Irma near south Florida as a category 4 hurricane. Thereafter, interaction with land and an increase in shear should induce gradual weakening.

 

 

 

 

 

Plane, satellite and radar fixes from Cuba indicate that the eye of Irma is moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at about 12 kt. The hurricane should continue on this track for the next 24 hours. After that time, Irma will reach the southwestern edge of the subtropical high and begin to turn north-northwestward and northward. This turn will occur, but the precise moment is still uncertain, and that is why NHC emphasizes that nobody should focus on the exact track of the center. The new NHC forecast was adjusted just a little bit westward and is on top the latest ECMWF model and the HFIP corrected consensus. In fact, these two aids are also very close to each other.

 

 

 

 

 

Key messages:

 

 

 

 

 

1. Irma is an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane and will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to the Bahamas through Saturday. Hurricane conditions will spread over portions of the north coast of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys, through Saturday.

 

 

 

 

 

2. Irma is likely to make landfall in Florida as a dangerous major hurricane, and will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of the state regardless of the exact track of the center.

 

 

 

 

 

3. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation in southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next 36 hours, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. In particular, the threat of significant storm surge flooding along the southwest coast of Florida has increased, and 6 to 12 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in this area. This is a life-threatening situation. Everyone in these areas should take all actions to protect life and property from rising water and follow evacuation instructions from local officials.

 

 

 

 

 

4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding. Total rain accumulations of 4 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected over the Florida peninsula Saturday through Monday. The highest amounts are expected over the eastern Florida peninsula and upper Florida Keys. Irma will likely bring periods of heavy rain to much of Georgia, South Carolina, and western North Carolina early next week, including some mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. All areas seeing heavy rainfall from Irma will experience a risk of flooding and flash flooding.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 75.3 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so with a decrease in forward speed. A turn toward the northwest is expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should move near the north coast of Cuba and the central Bahamas today and Saturday, and be near the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula Sunday morning.

 

 

 

 

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 hurricane as it approaches Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Watches & Warnings

 

 

 

 

 

Change with this advisory:

 

 

 

 

 

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended from Jupiter Inlet northward to Sebastian Inlet and from Bonita Beach northward to Venice.

 

 

 

 

 

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from north of Sebastian Inlet to Ponce Inlet.

 

 

 

 

 

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward along the east coast of Florida to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, and along the west coast of Florida to Anclote River.

 

 

 

 

 

Summary of watches and warnings in effect:

 

 

 

 

 

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

 

* Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Venice

 

* Florida Keys

 

 

 

 

 

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

 

* North of Sebastian Inlet to Ponce Inlet

 

 

 

 

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

 

* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach

 

* Florida Keys

 

* Lake Okeechobee

 

* Florida Bay

 

* Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

 

* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and Villa Clara

 

* Central Bahamas

 

* Northwestern Bahamas

 

 

 

 

 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

 

* North of Jupiter Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

 

* North of Bonita Beach to Anclote River

 

* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas

 

 

 

 

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

 

* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

 

 

 

 

 

Hazards affecting land

 

 

 

 

 

Damage from a cat 4 hurricane direct hit: Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

 

 

 

 

 

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

 

 

 

 

 

SW Florida from Captiva to Cape Sable...6 to 12 ft

 

Jupiter Inlet to Cape Sable including the Florida Keys...5 to 10 ft

 

Ponce Inlet to Jupiter Inlet...3 to 6 ft

 

Venice to Captiva...3 to 6 ft

 

 

 

 

 

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

 

 

 

 

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

 

 

 

 

 

Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft

 

Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft

 

Northwestern Bahamas...5 to 10 ft

 

Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft

 

Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft

 

 

 

 

 

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring on the Turks and Caicos Islands, with tropical storm and hurricane conditions ongoing in the southeastern Bahamas. These conditions will move into the central Bahamas later today. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba late today and Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and in portions of southern Florida and the Florida Keys Saturday night or early Sunday.

 

 

 

 

 

Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Florida by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Saturday.

 

 

 

 

 

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Tuesday night:

 

 

 

 

 

Dominican Republic and Haiti...additional 1 to 4 inches.

 

Turks and Caicos...additional 2 to 4 inches.

 

Southern Bahamas and northern Cuba...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.

 

Southern Cuba...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

 

Jamaica...1 to 2 inches.

 

The upper Florida Keys into southeast Florida...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.

 

Lower Florida Keys...4 to 8 inches.

 

Eastern Florida northward into coastal Georgia...8 to 12 inches, isolated 16 inches.

 

Western Florida peninsula...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

 

Much of Georgia...South Carolina...and Western North Carolina...3 to 6 inches.

 

 

 

 

 

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and, in some areas, mudslides.

 

 

 

 

 

SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and should start affecting portions of the southeast coast of the United States later today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

 

 

 

 

 

Discussion – After blasting the northern Caribbean, deadly Hurricane Irma will turn toward the United States, unleashing destructive winds, flooding rain and dangerous seas across Florida starting on Saturday.

 

 

 

Unfortunately, there is no way the United States is going to avoid another catastrophic weather event. There will be massive damage in Florida. Irma will be the worst single hurricane to hit Florida since Hurricane Andrew in 1992.

 

 

 

The current track of Irma will bring the most severe impacts to the eastern side of the state, including Miami, West Palm Beach, Melbourne, Daytona Beach and Jacksonville. However, with the forecast track now taking Irma right up the Florida Peninsula, hurricane-force winds will reach western parts of the state as well, including Tampa, Fort Myers and Sarasota. If the track shifts even a little bit to the west, the most severe impacts of the storm would impact western Florida and the Lower Keys.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Irma remains a very powerful and destructive hurricane. Impacts within the projected path of Irma include life-threatening wind, storm surge and flooding rainfall hazards. Conditions will rapidly deteriorate across South Florida and could turn life-threatening Saturday into Sunday. This is when rain and hurricane-force winds will quickly intensify.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Torrential rainfall, high winds and inundating seas will then increase from south to north across the Florida Peninsula on Sunday into Monday. A large fetch onshore, or continually blowing winds from the ocean, will cause water to pile up along the Florida coast. With the full moon a few days ago, significant flooding is likely, especially during high tide.

 

 

 

Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected with localized amounts to a foot, which can lead to significant flooding issues. Poor drainage areas will be particularly susceptible to flooding from Irma's torrential rainfall and road closures are possible.

 

While some fluctuations in strength are likely to occur, Irma is expected to maintain major hurricane status into the weekend. Locations near the center of the storm will be buffeted by wind gusts of 100 to 150 mph which can easily knock down power lines and trees and cause damage to roofs and structures.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Any land within 185 miles of the Irma's center could see damage due to tropical storm force winds and any place within 50 to 60 miles of the center could experience catastrophic damage due to hurricane force winds.

 

 

 

Ripple-effect travel delays will be felt across the country, not only domestic but also international travel as most airlines will cease service to the state this weekend.

 

 

 

How quickly Irma turns to the north after lashing Cuba, the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas will determine whether the center of the storm makes landfall in southern Florida or skirts right along the east coast of Florida. The timing of this turn is critical for where Irma will track during Sunday.

 

 

 

If Irma turns quickly to the north and passes closer to the Bahamas, the center of the storm and the worst of the rain and wind would stay just offshore of the east coast of Florida.

 

 

 

If Irma is slower to turn to the north, the storm would make landfall over the Florida Keys later Saturday and bring more severe impacts all the way up the Florida Peninsula. Isolated tornado spin-ups would threaten areas on the northeast side of the storm. This scenario would bring hurricane-force conditions across much of the state.

 

 

 

Latest trends indicate that the slower turn is more likely at this point, which would bring severe impacts to much of the Florida Peninsula with initial landfall over the northern Florida Keys.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All interests across Florida should closely monitor the progress of Irma, heed all evacuation orders and be prepared to evacuate at a moment's notice. Preparations for the storm should not end in Florida as locations from Georgia to the Carolinas will be next in line to face Irma's wrath. Preliminary estimate of potential economic cost from Hurricane Irma in the U.S. is $50-100 billion. If the eye passes right over Miami, then it will be even more.

 

 

 

After Florida – Georgia and the Carolinas

 

 

 

After battering Florida, Irma will make a beeline for the Southeast early next week, with the most severe impacts expected over Georgia and the Carolinas. Direct impacts from Irma are likely to begin as early as late Sunday and Monday in Georgia and the Carolinas. Preparations should be rushed to completion in these areas.

 

 

 

Interests in these areas need to prepare now for lengthy power outages, flooding and major delays and disruptions. Those along the coast should heed all mandatory evacuations and strongly consider leaving if a voluntary evacuation is ordered.

 

 

 

Even if the center of Irma goes up the Florida Peninsula and does not make landfall in Georgia or South Carolina, impacts in these areas could be devastating regardless.

 

 

 

 

 

The strength of Irma by the time it reaches the Southeast will largely depend on how much interaction the storm has with Florida, Cuba and the Bahamas. Still, Irma is expected to remain a large and dangerous hurricane that should be taken very seriously.

 

 

 

Tropical-storm-force conditions are expected to arrive along coastal areas later Sunday with rain and wind intensifying through Sunday night and into Monday morning. Power outages, tree damage and structural damage will be most widespread along and just inland of the coast. However, hurricane-force wind gusts can occur 100 to 150 miles away from the coast, triggering damage farther inland over Georgia and the Carolinas.

 

 

 

 

 

Isolated tornadoes will be a concern on the northeast side of the storm. A large storm surge will inundate coastal communities on this side of the storm as well.

 

 

 

Irma will move to the north and west early next week. While widespread damaging winds will become less of a concern farther inland, the threat for flooding will mount as Irma's rain expands.

 

 

 

 

 

Heavy rain is forecast to spread inland toward the southern Appalachians from Monday to Tuesday, potentially leading to extensive flooding due to the mountainous and hilly terrain of northeastern Georgia, western South Carolina, eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina. There is concern for serious flooding problems across Georgia and the Carolinas from Irma. Mudslides and road washouts will be possible. At the very least, disruptions to travel.

 

 

 

 

 

Atlanta; Knoxville, Tennessee; and Charlotte, North Carolina, could endure wind gusts to tropical storm strength. Sporadic power outages can occur as the soil becomes saturated.

 

 

The amount of rain that falls will lessen significantly beyond the Southeast as Irma runs into a large area of dry air over the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and Northeast. Flooding will become more of a concern on the local level. Still, locations such as Louisville, Kentucky; Cincinnati; Charleston, West Virginia; Richmond, Virginia; Pittsburgh; Washington, D.C.; Baltimore and Philadelphia, should anticipate wet, dreary and cool conditions around midweek. Travel disruptions can mount during this time. Some of Irma's rain may reach New England later next week.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Central Atlantic – Hurricane Jose: Jose now an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane, the first so far into Jose, found the hurricane was much stronger than previously estimated. A standard 90 percent reduction of the 146-kt peak flight-level wind at 700 mb yields an intensity estimate of about 130 kt, which is the basis for the initial intensity. In the short term, Jose is in a fairly favorable environment. Although the SHIPS-diagnosed shear is near 20 kt, the hurricane is small enough that it has thus far remained sheltered from the upper-level outflow of Hurricane Irma to the west. Internal dynamics will therefore most likely be the driving factor of Jose's intensity for the next day or so. After that time, all of the intensity guidance forecasts weakening, perhaps assuming that eventually the shear will begin to affect the hurricane. Due to the very high initial intensity of Jose, the intensity forecast is quite a bit higher than the model consensus, even after adjusting for the initial intensity. However, the NHC forecast still follows the model trend of steady weakening beyond 24 hours.

 

 

 

 

 

The aircraft data also indicated that the center of Jose is a little farther south than previously estimated. Because of that, the NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly south and west of the previous one. Otherwise, there is no significant change to the track forecast, and Jose is still expected to turn northwest before reaching the Leeward Islands on Saturday, as the subtropical ridge begins to retreat eastward. There is fairly good agreement between the global models for the first 48 h. After that, it is still unclear if Jose will begin to move east with an approaching mid-latitude mid-level trough, or if it will remain trapped in light steering flow. As a course of least regret, my forecast splits the difference between these scenarios and shows a slow northeastward motion at day 5.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 57.1 West or about 415 mi...670 km ese of the northern Leeward Islands. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A gradual turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Jose will pass near or east of the northeastern Leeward Islands on Saturday.

 

 

 

 

 

Recent data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible for the next day or so, and gradual weakening is expected after that. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).

 

 

 

 

 

Watches & Warnings

 

 

 

 

 

Changes with this advisory:

 

 

 

 

 

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for St. Thomas and St. John.

 

 

 

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the British Virgin Islands

 

 

 

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.

 

 

 

The government of Sint Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Sint Maarten.

 

 

 

 

 

Summary of watches and warnings in effect:

 

 

 

 

 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

 

* Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla

 

* Sint Maarten

 

* St. Martin

 

* St. Barthelemy

 

 

 

 

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

 

* Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla

 

* St. Martin

 

* St. Barthelemy

 

* Sint Maarten

 

 

 

 

 

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

 

* Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis

 

* Saba and St. Eustatius

 

* British Virgin Islands

 

* St. Thomas and St. John

 

 

 

 

 

Hazards affecting land

 

 

 

 

 

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday, and tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the northeastern Leeward Islands by Saturday morning and in the watch area in the Virgin Islands by Saturday night.

 

 

 

 

 

RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches in the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Anguilla, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Jose is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Virgin Islands and Dominica. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding.

 

 

 

 

 

SURF: Swells generated by Jose are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands by later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gulf of Mexico – Hurricane Katia is a Cat 1 storm and is now moving to the mainland. In addition to the hurricane-force winds, very heavy rains associated with Katia are expected to affect eastern Mexico. These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

 

 

 

 

 

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Katia was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 95.8 West or about 160 mi...255 km ESE of Tampico, Mexico and about 125 mi...205 km NNE of Veracruz, Mexico. Katia is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through landfall within the hurricane warning area early Saturday.

 

 

 

 

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected and Katia could be near major hurricane strength at landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Watches & Warnings

 

 

 

 

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

 

* Cabo Rojo to Laguna Verde

 

 

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

 

* North of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco

 

* South of Laguna Verde to Puerto Veracruz.

 

 

 

 

 

Hazards affecting land

 

 

 

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels near and to the north of where Katia makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

 

 

 

 

 

RAINFALL: Katia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, and Puebla. Katia is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches over southern Tamaulipas, eastern San Luis Potosi, western Hidalgo, eastern Queretaro, and southern Veracruz through Saturday evening. Isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are possible in northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, Puebla, and San Luis Potosi. This rainfall will likely cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

 

 

 

 

 

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area by tonight or early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions expected within the tropical storm warning areas by later today.

 

 

 

SURF: Swells generated by Katia will continue to affect portions of the coast of southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

....The current revised itinerary has her in St. Maarten on Monday but there may be just too much damage there.

.

 

There is too much damage to St. Maarten, including the port. St. Maarten will most likely be closed for several months....

Wednesday evening hurricane briefing -

 

Irma remains a Cat 5 storm with winds of 175 mph and tracking through the Turks & Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahama... Islands. The current computer models places Miami directly in the path of Irma…this is worst case scenario.

 

 

Jose looks to add injury to insult to the northern Leeward Islands as it looks like it will strike the same island pummeled yesterday.

 

And finally, Katia will eventually move into central Mexico.

 

 

Western Atlantic – Major Hurricane Irma: The big news with the latest computer runs has Irma tracking right through Miami, now keep in mind that can change. Also, it is important to note two factors – the eye is 25 miles wide, that is a huge eye. And the eye is where the strongest winds live. So if Irma makes landfall over southern Florida, if the eye remains 25 miles, think of a 25 mile wide cannon ball going through a corn field. The other item to note that the winds are stronger with height, so the winds at the top of the downtown Miami skyscrapers could see a 20 to 30% increase in the winds compared to ground level.

 

Hurricane Irma continues to have an impressive satellite presentation with a very distinct eye. There is not much more to add about the current intensity except that numerous data from the Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the winds remain at 150 kt.

 

The environment along the future track of Irma is favorable for the hurricane to maintain most of its current intensity, although some fluctuations are likely due to eyewall replacement cycles which are difficult to predict. There are no obvious reasons why Irma should not remain a powerful major hurricane for the next 3 days while it is heading for Florida or its adjacent surroundings. Thereafter, an increase in the wind shear and the interaction with land should lead to gradual weakening.

 

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 14 kt. Irma is being steered by the flow around the south side of the subtropical ridge, but in 2 or 3 days the hurricane is expected to be located on the southwestern edge of the aforementioned ridge, and a turn to the northwest and north-northwest should then begin. The forecast track for the first 2 days was adjusted a little bit to the south given that the ridge to the north continues to be strong, and the ECMWF and HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA) models have shifted southward a little bit. These two models have been performing very well during Irma. This adjustment also results in a westward shift of the track near Florida and northward.

 

 

Key messages:

 

1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to the northern coast of Hispaniola tonight. These hazards are already spreading across the Turks and Caicos and will affect the Bahamas tonight through Saturday. Hurricane conditions will also spread over portions of the north coast of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys through Saturday.

 

2. It has become more likely that Irma will make landfall in southern Florida as a dangerous major hurricane, and bring life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts to much of the state. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for South Florida, the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida Bay, and will likely be expanded northward tonight.

 

3. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys. This means there is the possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 48 hours in these areas. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. Because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend through 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in the watch area.

 

4. There is a chance of direct impacts in portions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, but it is too early to specify the magnitude and location of these impacts.

 

At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 71.8 West or about 55 mi...85 km WSW of Grand Turk Island and about 90 mi...145 km E of Great Inagua Island. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days with some decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should continue to move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and toward the southeastern Bahamas this evening. The core of the hurricane will then move between the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next day or two.

 

Maximum sustained winds remain near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

 

 

Watches & Warnings

 

Changes with this advisory:

 

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the Hurricane Warning east of Cabo Frances Viejo and the Tropical Storm Warning for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic.

 

 

Summary of watches and warnings in effect:

 

 

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach

* Florida Keys

 

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo to the northern border with Haiti

* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas

* Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and Villa Clara

* Central Bahamas

* Northwestern Bahamas

 

 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach

* Florida Keys

* Lake Okeechobee

* Florida Bay

* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas.

 

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince

* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

 

 

Hazards affecting land

 

 

Damage from a cat 5 hurricane direct hit: People, livestock, and pets are at very high risk of injury or death from flying or falling debris, even if indoors in mobile homes or framed homes. Almost complete destruction of all mobile homes will occur, regardless of age or construction. A high percentage of frame homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Extensive damage to roof covers, windows, and doors will occur. Large amounts of windborne debris will be lofted into the air. Windborne debris damage will occur to nearly all unprotected windows and many protected windows. Significant damage to wood roof commercial buildings will occur due to loss of roof sheathing. Complete collapse of many older metal buildings can occur. Most unreinforced masonry walls will fail which can lead to the collapse of the buildings. A high percentage of industrial buildings and low-rise apartment buildings will be destroyed. Nearly all windows will be blown out of high-rise buildings resulting in falling glass, which will pose a threat for days to weeks after the storm. Nearly all commercial signage, fences, and canopies will be destroyed. Nearly all trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Long-term water shortages will increase human suffering. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. Hurricane Andrew (1992) is an example of a hurricane that brought Category 5 winds and impacts to coastal portions of Cutler Ridge, Florida with Category 4 conditions experienced elsewhere in south Miami-Dade County.

 

 

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach, including Florida Keys...5 to 10 ft

 

 

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

 

Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft

Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft

Northwestern Bahamas...5 to 10 ft

Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft

Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft

Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft

 

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti tonight. Hurricane conditions are occurring on the Turks and Caicos Islands. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are beginning in the southeastern Bahamas and will spread into the central Bahamas by tonight or early Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba late Friday and Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday.

 

Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Florida by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Saturday.

 

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday evening:

 

 

Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands...additional 1 to 2 inches

Much of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches

Andros Island and Bimini, Bahamas...12 to 16 inches, isolated 25 inches

Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches

Southern Dominican Republic and southern Haiti...2 to 5 inches

Eastern and central Cuba...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches

Southeast Florida and the upper Florida Keys...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches

Lower Florida Keys...2 to 5 inches

 

 

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

 

 

SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and should start affecting portions of the southeast coast of the United States later today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

 

 

Central Atlantic – Major Hurricane Jose: looks to follow a similar path as Irma when it approaches the northern Leeward Islands. At this time, there is the possibility of Jose hitting or coming dangerous close to the same islands that were hit yesterday.

 

 

At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 53.2 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). The hurricane is expected to continue on this heading with a slight decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Jose is expected to be near the northern Leeward Islands on Saturday.

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).

 

 

Watches and warnings

 

 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Antigua and Barbuda

 

 

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Anguilla, Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis

* Saba and St. Eustatius

 

 

Hazards affecting land

 

 

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch and tropical storm watch areas by Saturday morning.

 

 

RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 6 inches in the Leeward Islands from Dominica to Anguilla. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible in the northern Leeward Islands from Antigua and Barbuda to Anguilla. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding.

 

 

SURF: Swells generated by Jose are likely to affect portions of the Leeward Islands by late Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

 

 

 

Gulf of Mexico – Hurricane Katina little change in the status of Katia. The storm is expected to move towards Mexico soon.

 

 

At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Katia was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 94.7 West. Katia is stationary and little overall motion is anticipated tonight. A slow west-southwest motion is expected by early Friday and Katia is expected to approach the coast within the warning area Friday night or early Saturday.

 

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and Katia could be near major hurricane strength at landfall. Katia is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

 

 

Watches and warnings

 

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Cabo Rojo to Laguna Verde

 

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* North of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco

* South of Laguna Verde to Puerto Veracruz.

 

 

Hazards affecting land

 

 

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels near and to the north of where Katia makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

 

 

RAINFALL: Katia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Veracruz and eastern Hidalgo, and Puebla. Katia is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches over southern Tamaulipas, eastern San Luis Potosi, western Hidalgo, eastern Queretaro, and southern Veracruz through Saturday evening. Isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are possible in northern Veracruz and eastern Hidalgo, Puebla, and San Luis Potosi. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

 

 

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area by Friday night or early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions expected within the tropical storm warning areas by late Friday.

 

 

SURF: Swells generated by Katia will continue to affect portions of the coast of southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Thursday morning advisory in Hurricanes Irma, Jose, Katia:

 

Western Atlantic – Major Hurricane Irma:

Afterpummeling St Maarten, St Barts and Barbuda,early reports and images from those islands indicate that “catastrophic” damagehas occurred. Communications is spotty at best, not to mention theinfrastructure took a heavy hit. The StMaarten international airport was damage, but the runway is intact. Power willbe out for weeks if not months for some areas.

Whilethe center of Irma passed just north of Puerto Rico, a wind gust of 63 milesper hour was clocked in San Juan early Wednesday evening and up to 1 millionpeople are without power.

Today,Irma will literally drown the Turks and Caicos, and southeastern BahamasIslands with up to 12 inches of rainfall, isolated 20 inches not of thequestion, and a storm surge of 15 to 20 feet. Keep in mind, some of the highestpoints on the islands are only 15 feet. Anyone on those islands will most likely not survive.

Meanwhile in Florida, initial mandatorycoastal evacuations orders have been issued for Miami-Dade County in thesouthern Florida. Flight cancellations are starting to popup and anticipate nocommercial flights over the weekend.

New this advisory, hurricane watches and storm surge watches have been issued for southern Florida.

 

The eye on satellite continues to be quite distinct, and data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the initial intensity is 150 kt. The central pressure remains near 921 mb.

 

The environment along the future track of Irma is favorable for the hurricane to maintain most of its current intensity, although some fluctuations are likely due to eyewall replacement cycles which are difficult to predict. There are no obvious reasons why Irma will not remain a powerful hurricane for the next 3 days while approaching Florida. Thereafter, an increase in the wind shear could lead to gradual weakening, but Irma is expected to remain a major hurricane until landfall occurs.

 

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 14 kt. Irma is being steered by the flow around the south side of the subtropical ridge, but in 2 to 3 days, the hurricane will be located on the southwestern edge of the aforementioned ridge, and a turn to the northwest and north-northwest should then begin. There has been no change in the guidance which is still quite clustered and brings the core of Irma very near the southeast Florida coast in about 3 days. The NHC forecast, which is similar to the previous one, is very close to the multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. The later has been performing very well during Irma.

 

Key messages:

 

1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to the northern coast of Hispaniola today. These hazards will spread across the Turks and Caicos tonight and the Bahamas tonight through Saturday.

 

2. A hurricane watch is in effect for much of Cuba. Irma is likely to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to portions of these areas on Friday and Saturday.

 

3. The threat of dangerous major hurricane impacts in Florida continues to increase. A hurricane watch has been issued for south Florida, the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida Bay. This watch will likely be expanded northward later today. Residents in these areas should heed any advice given by local officials.

 

4. A storm surge watch has also been issued for portions of south Florida and the Florida Keys. This means there is the possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 48 hours in these areas. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. Because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend through 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in the watch area.

 

5. The chance of direct impacts is increasing in portions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, but it is too early to specify the magnitude and location of the impacts.

 

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 69.7 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should continue to move just north of the coast of Hispaniola today, be near the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas by this evening, and then be near the central Bahamas by Friday.

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

 

 

Watches & Warnings

 

Changes with this advisory:

 

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Florida peninsula from Jupiter Inlet southward and around the peninsula to Bonita Beach, including the Florida Keys.

 

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Florida peninsula from Jupiter Inlet southward and around the peninsula to Bonita Beach, including the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida Bay.

 

 

The government of Cuba has extended the Tropical Storm Warning to Villa Clara province.

 

 

Summary of watches and warnings in effect:

 

 

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach

* Florida Keys

 

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti

* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas

* Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

* Central Bahamas

* Northwestern Bahamas

 

 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach

* Florida Keys

* Lake Okeechobee

* Florida Bay

* Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province

 

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southern border with Haiti

* Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince

* Cuba provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus and Villa Clara.

 

 

Hazards affecting land

 

 

Damage from a cat 5 hurricane direct hit: People, livestock, and pets are at very high risk of injury or death from flying or falling debris, even if indoors in mobile homes or framed homes. Almost complete destruction of all mobile homes will occur, regardless of age or construction. A high percentage of frame homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Extensive damage to roof covers, windows, and doors will occur. Large amounts of windborne debris will be lofted into the air. Windborne debris damage will occur to nearly all unprotected windows and many protected windows. Significant damage to wood roof commercial buildings will occur due to loss of roof sheathing. Complete collapse of many older metal buildings can occur. Most unreinforced masonry walls will fail which can lead to the collapse of the buildings. A high percentage of industrial buildings and low-rise apartment buildings will be destroyed. Nearly all windows will be blown out of high-rise buildings resulting in falling glass, which will pose a threat for days to weeks after the storm. Nearly all commercial signage, fences, and canopies will be destroyed. Nearly all trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Long-term water shortages will increase human suffering. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. Hurricane Andrew (1992) is an example of a hurricane that brought Category 5 winds and impacts to coastal portions of Cutler Ridge, Florida with Category 4 conditions experienced elsewhere in south Miami-Dade County.

 

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach, including Florida Keys...5 to 10 ft

 

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

 

Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft

Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft

Northwestern Bahamas...5 to 10 ft

Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft

Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft

Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft

 

 

Water levels around Puerto Rico should subside today.

 

 

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti today. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands later today with tropical storm conditions expected within the next several hours. These conditions will spread into the central Bahamas by tonight or early Friday.

 

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Cuba by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning area in Cuba tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday.

 

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday evening:

 

Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches

Much of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches

Andros Island and Bimini, Bahamas...12 to 16 inches, isolated 25 inches

Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches

Southern Dominican Republic and southern Haiti...2 to 5 inches

Eastern and central Cuba...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches

Southeast Florida and the upper Florida Keys...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches

Lower Florida Keys...2 to 5 inches

 

 

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

 

 

SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and should start affecting portions of the southeast coast of the United States later today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

 

 

 

Central Atlantic – Hurricane Jose: New with this advisory: Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the northern Leeward Islands…the same islands that were pummeled yesterday.

 

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 50.6 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). The hurricane is expected to continue on this heading with a slight decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days.

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Jose is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km).

 

 

Watches and warnings

 

 

Changes with this advisory:

 

 

The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Watch for the islands of Antigua and Barbuda.

 

 

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the islands of Anguilla, Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis.

 

 

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the islands of Saba and St. Eustatius

 

 

Summary of watches and warnings in effect:

 

 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Antigua and Barbuda

 

 

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Anguilla, Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis

* Saba and St. Eustatius

 

 

Hazards affecting land

 

 

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch and tropical storm watch areas by Saturday morning.

RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 6 inches in the Leeward Islands from Dominica to Anguilla. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible in the northern Leeward Islands from Antigua and Barbuda to Anguilla. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding.

 

 

SURF: Swells generated by Jose are likely to affect portions of the Leeward Islands by Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

 

Gulf of Mexico – Hurricane Katia is sitting in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and should move onshore to eastern Mexico later Friday night / early Saturday morning.

 

 

At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Katia was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 94.6 West. Katia is stationary and little overall motion is anticipated through late today, but the hurricane is forecast to turn southwestward and approach the coast within the watch area late Friday or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Katia could be near major hurricane strength at landfall. Katia is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km).

 

 

Watches & Warnings

 

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Cabo Rojo to Laguna Verde

 

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* North of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco

* South of Laguna Verde to Puerto Veracruz.

 

 

Hazards affecting land

 

 

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels near and to the north of where Katia makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

 

 

RAINFALL: Katia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over northern Veracruz, and 2 to 5 inches over far southern Tamaulipas, northeast Puebla, and southern Veracruz through Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible in northern Veracruz. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

 

 

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions expected within the tropical warning areas by midday Friday.

 

 

SURF: Swells generated by Katia are expected to affect portions of the coast of southeastern Mexico today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Here is your afternoon / evening briefing on Irma AND Jose.... if you are in the path of this deadly and destructive storm, prepare and get out of the way.

 

Western Atlantic – Major Hurricane Irma: After spending the day just literally pummeling the Leeward Islands of Barbuda, St Barts, and St Maarten and this afternoon the Virgin Islands, Irma is now north of Puerto Rico and there are no signs of it weakening. This monster of a storm is truly phenomenal in that it has maintained 180 mph plus for over 30 hours. Most Cat 5 storms cannot sustain this energy.

 

Irma will miss the Turks & Caicos to the south, however the storm surge of 10 to 20 feet will literally swamp the islands.

 

 

Meanwhile in Florida, the entire state has been declared a disaster area and with pre-evacuations ordered in the south. If you are thinking of evacuating, now is the time to move before the onslaught. But the problem is that Irma is expected to track up the east coast of Florida from Miami northward. Major damage is expected. Travel will be a nightmare as airlines have already canceled flights for the weekend, and all the flights now are at capacity.

 

The eye of Irma passed over the northernmost Virgin Islands earlier this afternoon and it is now located just to their northwest. The satellite and radar presentation of the hurricane remains extremely impressive. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft reported peak SFMR winds of 156 kt and flight-level winds of 164 kt during its mission this afternoon. Although there have been no SFMR or flight-level winds as high as what was observed yesterday, the initial intensity remains 160 kt, due to the potential of undersampling. Dropsonde observations in the eye indicated that the pressure rose a few millibars this morning, but the most recent aircraft report shows that the pressure has fallen to 914 mb.

 

The hurricane remains on a west-northwestward motion at about 14 kt. A high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic is forecast to keep Irma on a west-northwestward course over the next 48 to 72 hours. The track guidance is still in good agreement during that period, and little change to the NHC forecast was required. By the weekend, a shortwave trough diving southward over the east-central United States is expected to cause Irma to turn northwestward and northward. The 12Z guidance has generally shifted slightly westward, closer to the previous NHC forecast. As a result, little overall change was made to the 4-5 day track forecast. The NHC track is once again close to the HFIP corrected consensus model. This is also near the 12Z GEFS ensemble mean, but a little east of the latest ECMWF ensemble mean. Users are reminded that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles, respectively.

Low vertical wind shear and warm waters along the forecast track of Irma should allow it to remain a very powerful hurricane during the next several days, and the intensity forecast is again near the upper-end of the guidance and is the same as the previous advisory through 96 hours. Increasingly southwesterly shear and potential land interaction late in the period is expected to cause some decrease in Irma's strength by day 5.

Efforts to provide the forecast models with as much data as possible continue, with 6-hourly NWS balloon launches across much of the continental United States, and the NOAA G-IV aircraft currently sampling the environment around the storm.

 

Key messages:

 

1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to Puerto Rico tonight, the northern coast of Hispaniola Thursday, and the Turks and Caicos and southeastern and central Bahamas Thursday and Friday.

2. Hurricane watches are in effect for the northwestern Bahamas and much of Cuba. Irma is likely to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to portions of these areas on Friday and Saturday.

3. The threat of direct hurricane impacts in Florida over the weekend and early next week has increased. Hurricane watches could be issued for portions of the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula on Thursday.

 

 

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 65.4 West or about 40 mi...60 km NW of St. Thomas or about 55 mi...85 km ENE of San Juan Puerto Rico. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma will pass just north of Puerto Rico tonight, pass near or just north of the coast of Hispaniola Thursday, and be near the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas by Thursday evening.

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.

 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). A wind gust to 62 mph (100 km/h) has been recently reported at San Juan, Puerto Rico.

 

Watches & Warnings

 

Changes with this advisory:

 

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence.

 

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas.

 

The government of France has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy.

 

 

Summary of watches and warnings in effect:

 

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* British Virgin Islands

* U.S. Virgin Islands

* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti

* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas

* Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

* Central Bahamas

 

 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province

* Northwestern Bahamas

 

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southern border with Haiti

* Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince

* Cuba provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

 

 

Hazards affecting land

 

 

Damage from a cat 5 hurricane direct hit: People, livestock, and pets are at very high risk of injury or death from flying or falling debris, even if indoors in mobile homes or framed homes. Almost complete destruction of all mobile homes will occur, regardless of age or construction. A high percentage of frame homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Extensive damage to roof covers, windows, and doors will occur. Large amounts of windborne debris will be lofted into the air. Windborne debris damage will occur to nearly all unprotected windows and many protected windows. Significant damage to wood roof commercial buildings will occur due to loss of roof sheathing. Complete collapse of many older metal buildings can occur. Most unreinforced masonry walls will fail which can lead to the collapse of the buildings. A high percentage of industrial buildings and low-rise apartment buildings will be destroyed. Nearly all windows will be blown out of high-rise buildings resulting in falling glass, which will pose a threat for days to weeks after the storm. Nearly all commercial signage, fences, and canopies will be destroyed. Nearly all trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Long-term water shortages will increase human suffering. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. Hurricane Andrew (1992) is an example of a hurricane that brought Category 5 winds and impacts to coastal portions of Cutler Ridge, Florida with Category 4 conditions experienced elsewhere in south Miami-Dade County.

 

 

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

 

 

Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft

Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft

Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft

Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft

Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft

 

 

Water levels in the Leeward Islands will gradually subside tonight.

 

 

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

 

 

British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft

Northern coast of Puerto Rico...4 to 6 ft

Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...2 to 4 ft

 

 

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

 

WIND: Tropical Storm and Hurricane conditions are occurring over the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and will spread westward over portions of Puerto Rico tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Thursday with tropical storm conditions by late tonight. These conditions will spread into the Central Bahamas by Thursday night.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the central Bahamas and Cuba by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning area in Cuba Thursday night.

 

 

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday:

 

Northern Leeward Islands...Additional 1 to 3 inches. Storm total 8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches.

Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches.

Southwest Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

The Southern Leeward Islands, and Saint Croix...2 to 4 inches.

Southeast Bahamas, Central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches.

Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

Eastern and Central Cuba...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

Southwest Haiti...1 to 4 inches.

 

 

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

 

 

SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and portions of the southeast coast of the United States during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

 

 

 

Central Atlantic – Hurricane Jose is following his sister Irma and “may” impact the northeastern Leeward Islands this weekend.

 

 

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 45.8 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

 

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Jose could be near major hurricane strength on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km).

Officials in St. Maarten have described the damage as being "catastrophic".

The 5 pm EDT / AST advisory - not good for St Barts and St Maarten.

 

WesternAtlantic – Leeward Islands – Major Hurricane Irma:In this advisory the trackhas shifted slightly to the south which puts the islands of Barbuda, St. Barts,St Maarten, and the Virgin Islands in the direct path of the center ofIrma. Remember the center is where themost destructive winds are. With regardsto St Maarten, the center is now going through Philipsburg and theinternational airport. The storm maycause quite a bit of destruction to the airport, which is the regionalinternational airport for the northern Leeward Islands. Tropical storm force winds will begin tobatter the Leeward Islands in a few hours.

The eye of Irma is within range of the Meteo France radar in the northeasternCaribbean, and recent images show the development of an outer eyewall, likelythe beginning stages of an eyewall replacement. These changes in inner-core structure will likely result in fluctuationsin intensity during the next couple of days. Otherwise, increasing upper-oceanheat content and a very favorable upper-level pattern are expected to allowIrma to remain a category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next several days. Once again, the NHC forecast shows limitedinteraction of the hurricane with the islands of the Greater Antilles.

Fixes from the latest satellite and radar imagery suggest that Irma ismoving a little north of due west or 280/13 kt. A strong ridge extending southwestward from the central Atlantic isexpected to steer Irma west-northwestward during the couple of days. A large mid-latitude trough over the easternUnited States is forecast to lift northeastward, allowing the ridge to buildwestward and keep Irma on a westward to west-northwestward heading throughFriday. Over the weekend, a shortwave trough diving southward over the east-centralU.S. is expected to weaken the western portion of the ridge, causing Irma toturn poleward. The dynamical model guidanceis in good agreement through 72 hours, but there is increasing spreadthereafter. The HWRF, UKMET, and ECMWFshow a more southerly track and a sharper turn around day 5, while the GFS isfarther north and east late in the period. The NHC track is near a consensus of these models and close to the HFIPcorrected consensus. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track,especially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors are about175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.

Key messages:

1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will bringlife-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to portions of thenortheastern Leeward Islands tonight and tomorrow. These hazards will spreadinto the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tomorrow. Preparations should be rushed to completionbefore the arrival of tropical-storm force winds tomorrow morning in Virgin Islandsand Puerto Rico.

2. A hurricane warning is in effect for the northern coast of the DominicanRepublic, with hurricane watches for Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas and theTurks and Caicos. Irma is likely to bringdangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to these areas from Wednesday nightthrough Friday.

3. Irma could directly affect the remainder of the Bahamas and Cuba asan extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents in theseareas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given byofficials.

4. The chance of direct impacts from Irma beginning later this week andthis weekend from wind, storm surge, and rainfall continues to increase in theFlorida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula. However, it is too soon tospecify the timing and magnitude of these impacts.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Irma was locatednear latitude 17.1 North, longitude 59.8 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecastto begin tonight and continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the extremelydangerous core of Irma will move over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonightand early Wednesday, move near or over portions of the northern Virgin IslandsWednesday, and pass near or just north of Puerto Rico late Wednesday andWednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is an extremely dangerous category 5hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likelyduring the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extendoutward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force windsextend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

Watches andwarnings

--------------------

Changes with this advisory:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a HurricaneWarningalong the north coast of the Dominican Republic from the border with Haitieastward to Cabo Engano. A tropical storm warning has been issued for the south coast ofthe Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southernborder with Haiti.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis

* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten

* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

* British Virgin Islands

* U.S. Virgin Islands

* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Guadeloupe

* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le MoleSt. Nicholas

* Turks and Caicos Islands

* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Guadeloupe

* Dominica

* Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southernborder with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince

Hazards affecting land

STORM SURGE: The combination of alife-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levelsABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warningarea near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompaniedby large and destructive waves.

Northern Leeward Islands...7 to 11 ft

Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft

Southeastern Bahamas...15 to 20 ft

Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft

Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will causenormally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inlandfrom the shoreline. The water isexpected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occursat the time of high tide...

British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft

Northern coast of Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft

Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshorewinds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on therelative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over shortdistances. For information specific toyour area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Serviceforecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions areexpected within the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, withtropical storm conditions beginning within the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected to beginwithin the hurricane warning area in the British and U.S. Virgin Islands andPuerto Rico on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginningtonight. Hurricane conditions areexpected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republicearly Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday night.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watcharea in Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas byearly Thursday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected toproduce the following rain accumulations through Thursday:

Northern Leeward Islands...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches

Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St.Croix...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches

Southwest Puerto Rico, the southern Leeward Islands, and St. Croix...2to 4 inches

Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations Wednesdaythrough Saturday:

Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches

Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches, isolated15 inches

Southwest Haiti...1 to 4 inches

These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Irmawill affect the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, thesoutheastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the northern coast ofthe Dominican Republic during the next several days. These swells are likely to causelife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

No real changes with the 11 am advisory, except Irma is a little stronger with maxsustained winds of 180 mph and the hurricane winds fan out 60 miles from thecenter of the storm. Preparations for Irma should be rushed tocompletion. Looks like the storm will pass through the northern LeewardIslands early tomorrow morning.

As of right now and if Irma stays on this track, looks likethe northeast side of St. Maarten will be pummeled with a direct hit. Anyone on the French side, especially on the eastside, needs to evacuate. If you are familiar with Orient Bay Beach, it will be “devastated” by a directhit with wind damage and storm surge.

As for Watches and Warnings, new with the 11 am EDT / ASTadvisory –

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch forthe

Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeasternBahamas, including the

Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas,Mayaguana, and the

Ragged Islands.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the north coast of Haitifrom

the border of the Dominican Republic westwardto Le Mole St.

Nicholas. A Tropical Storm Watch has beenissued from south of Le

Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince.

Best information and updates on Irma come from the National Hurricane Center: www dot nhc dot noaa dot gov.

 

www dot spaghettimodels dot com provides a multitude of graphics and track models from all sources on hurricanes and is an excellent up-to-date source of information.

 

Feel free to post complete URLs (such as http://www.nhc.noaa.gov ) vs spelling the URL out with DOT. There is no reason to type DOT.

Here is the latest....

Western Atlantic – Major Hurricane Irma becomes an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane. Preparations should be rushed to completion in the hurricane warning area. With regards to wind damage, the most destructive winds remain about 45 miles from the center, obvious any direct hit will have catastrophic consequences, outside of the 45 miles or so can expect tropical storm force winds. For right now, there are a number of islands (Barbuda, St. Barts, St Maarten, Anguilla, and the British Virgin Islands) that are in the direct path of Irma. But remember, storm surge and flooding causes the most widespread damage and deaths.

 

The initial intensity has been increased to 150 kt, making Irma an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane. Some additional strengthening is still possible, but fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next couple of days due to eyewall replacement cycles.

 

Key messages:

 

1. Irma is expected to affect the northeastern Leeward Islands as an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane, accompanied by life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall. Hurricane warnings are in effect for portions of the Leeward Islands. Preparations should be rushed to completion, as tropical-storm force winds are expected to first arrive in the hurricane warning area later today.

 

2. Irma is also expected to affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as a dangerous major hurricane beginning tomorrow, with life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall. Hurricane warnings have been issued for these areas, and tropical-storm-force winds are expected to arrive in these areas by early tomorrow.

 

3. Irma could directly affect Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials.

 

4. There is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts from Irma in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys later this week and this weekend. Otherwise, it is still too early to determine what direct impacts Irma might have on the continental United States. However, everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.

 

At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the distinct eye center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 57.7 West about 270 mi...440 km E of Antigua and about 280 mi...445 km ESE of Barbuda. Irma is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest tonight. On the forecast track, the dangerous core of Irma will move near or over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonight and early Wednesday.

 

Reports from NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate Irma continues to strengthen and maximum sustained winds have increased to near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).

 

 

Watches & Warnings

 

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis

* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten

* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

* British Virgin Islands

* U.S. Virgin Islands

* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

 

 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Guadeloupe

* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with

Haiti

 

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Guadeloupe

* Dominica

 

 

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engao to Isla Saona

 

 

Hazards affecting land

 

 

Damage from a cat 5 hurricane direct hit: People, livestock, and pets are at very high risk of injury or death from flying or falling debris, even if indoors in mobile homes or framed homes. Almost complete destruction of all mobile homes will occur, regardless of age or construction. A high percentage of frame homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Extensive damage to roof covers, windows, and doors will occur. Large amounts of windborne debris will be lofted into the air. Windborne debris damage will occur to nearly all unprotected windows and many protected windows. Significant damage to wood roof commercial buildings will occur due to loss of roof sheathing. Complete collapse of many older metal buildings can occur. Most unreinforced masonry walls will fail which can lead to the collapse of the buildings. A high percentage of industrial buildings and low-rise apartment buildings will be destroyed. Nearly all windows will be blown out of high-rise buildings resulting in falling glass, which will pose a threat for days to weeks after the storm. Nearly all commercial signage, fences, and canopies will be destroyed. Nearly all trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Long-term water shortages will increase human suffering. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. Hurricane Andrew (1992) is an example of a hurricane that brought Category 5 winds and impacts to coastal portions of Cutler Ridge, Florida with Category 4 conditions experienced elsewhere in south Miami-Dade County.

 

 

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels along the coasts of the extreme northern Leeward Islands within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

 

 

British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft

Northern coast of Puerto Rico...2 to 4 ft

Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft

 

 

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands by tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area where hurricane conditions are also possible. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican Republic by early Thursday.

 

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches across the northern Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. These rainfall amounts may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

 

SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

 

Discussion - Life-threatening conditions are expected across the northern Caribbean this week as Category 5 Hurricane Irma barrels through. Irma is expected to bring deteriorating and perhaps devastating conditions across the Leeward Islands into Wednesday. Irma strengthened to a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph (280 km/h) this morning, becoming the strongest storm in the Atlantic Basin since 2007. Irma will pass near or over the Leeward Islands tonight into Wednesday.

 

The current track of Irma will put Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, Anguilla and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, in the brunt of the storm's rain and wind during this time. Impacts could also be felt across the far northern Windward Islands as well.

 

Irma poses an imminent danger to these areas, where preparations for the storm should be rushed to completion. Widespread power outages and significant damage to trees and structures are likely where the eye of the storm passes directly over or makes its closest approach. The power may be out for weeks in some communities.

 

Expect very rough and dangerous surf along with damaging tropical-storm-force and hurricane-force winds over the northern Leeward Islands, and tropical-storm-force winds over the southern Leewards to perhaps the northern Windward Islands, mostly in gusts.

 

Irma will track near Puerto Rico Wednesday and Wednesday night, delivering flooding rain and damaging winds along with the threat for mudslides. Rainfall will be heavy enough to trigger flash flooding, mudslides and road washouts. Amounts of 4 to 8 inches of rain can be expected on the islands.

 

Interests on Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas and eastern Cuba should closely monitor the progression of Major Hurricane Irma. A track near or over these locations is becoming increasingly likely towards the end of the week, which would bring life-threatening conditions to residents and any vacationers.

 

The greatest impacts would be felt Thursday and Thursday night for Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands. By Friday, Cuba and the Bahamas could begin to be severely impacted. These areas should prepare for devastating hurricane conditions.

 

However, fluctuations in Irma’s strength and track are expected over the next couple of days, so the exact track the hurricane will take is still unknown. Regardless, interests are urged to prepare now and have a plan in place.

 

Uncertainty greatly increases heading into the weekend and next week as Irma tracks closer to the United States coastline.

 

Given the uncertainty that remains, all interests along the Gulf and East coasts should closely monitor the forecast path of Irma this week and review emergency and evacuation procedures in case they need to be implemented.

 

Forecast for the U.S.

 

As Major Hurricane Irma churns across the western Atlantic and towards the United States, interests along the Gulf and East coasts of the U.S. need to be on alert.

 

Irma could track somewhere along the Gulf or East coasts this weekend or next week. Interests are urged to prepare now.

 

This hurricane has the potential to be a major event for the East Coast. It also has the potential to significantly strain FEMA and other governmental resources occurring so quickly on the heels of Harvey. A landfall in Florida, Georgia or the Carolinas is all in the realm of possibilities. Irma could also head into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Another scenario still on the table is that Irma curve northward and miss the East Coast entirely. This would still generate large surf and rip currents along the East Coast. However, this scenario is the least likely to occur at this point.

 

On Monday afternoon, Florida Gov. Rick Scott declared a state of emergency for every county in Florida in anticipation of Irma. A state of emergency was also declared in Puerto Rico earlier in the day.

The exact path of Irma beyond the end of the week remains uncertain and will depend on a variety of moving parts in the atmosphere.

 

The eastward or northeast progression of a non-tropical system pushing across the central and eastern U.S. this week will highly impact the long-range movement of Irma. How fast or slow this non-tropical system moves will be an important factor on where Irma is steered this weekend into next week. The speed of this feature will determine when and how much Irma gets pulled northward or whether Irma continues on more of a westward track.

 

This amount of uncertainty means that the entire southern and eastern U.S. should monitor Irma this week. Interests along the coast are urged to start preparing and making sure plans are in place to deal with the worst case scenario. This includes plans on how to evacuate.

 

Due to Irma following so closely on Harvey's heels and since FEMA and other government resources will be strained, more preparation and storm aftermath may rest on individuals. It may be crucial to evacuate ahead of the storm, so preparation is key.

Here is the latest info as of 11:00 am EDT / AST

 

Western Atlantic – Hurricane Irmais a Cat 3 storm and is expected to be a Cat 4 stormas it passes dangerous close, if not over, to some of the northeastern LeewardIsland. Hurricane warnings issued forportions of the Leeward Islands and hurricane watches issuedfor the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

The satellitepresentation of Irma has improved markedly over the past 24 hours, with the eyebecoming larger and much more distinct. Irma is expected to remain within avery favorable environment for strengthening during the next several days andadditional intensification appears likely. However, eyewall replacement cycles arelikely to cause some fluctuations in intensity during that time. The NHCforecast brings the hurricane to category 4 strength within the next 24 hours,and then maintains Irma as a powerful hurricane during the next 5 days,assuming that the core of the cyclone does not move over any of the Greater Antilles.

Irma has been moving west-southwestward or 255/11 kt to thesouth of a strong mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. The hurricane should turn westward latertoday or tonight, then west-northwestward Tuesday as it reaches thesouthwestern portion of the ridge. As mentionedin the previous NHC discussion, a large mid-latitude trough is expected toamplify over the eastern United States during the next few days. The global models are unanimous in liftingthe trough out to the northeast by late in the week, allowing the Atlanticridge to build westward on days 3 through 5. The track guidance has again shifted westward and southwestward at days4 and 5, but the models remain in very good agreement through the forecast period. The updated NHC track forecast has beenadjusted southwestward late in the period, and lies very near the consensus ofthe ECMWF, GFS, and HWRF models.

Interests are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast tracksince strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center. Inaddition, average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days4 and 5, respectively.

Key messages:

1. Irma is expected to affect the northeastern Leeward Islandsas a dangerous major hurricane, accompanied by life-threatening wind, stormsurge, and rainfall impacts, along with rough surf and rip currents. Hurricanewarnings have been issued for portions of the Leeward Islands. Preparationsshould be rushed to completion, as tropical-storm force winds are expected tofirst arrive in the hurricane warning area by late Tuesday.

2. Irma could directly affect the British and U.S. VirginIslands and Puerto Rico as a dangerous major hurricane later this week. Hurricanewatches have been issued for these areas, and tropical-storm-force winds couldarrive in these areas by early Wednesday.

3. Irma could directly affect Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos,the Bahamas, and Cuba as a dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residentsin these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice givenby officials.

4. There is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts fromIrma in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys later this week and this weekend.In addition, rough surf and dangerous marine conditions will begin to affectthe southeastern U.S. coast by later this week. Otherwise, it is still tooearly to determine what direct impacts Irma might have on the continentalUnited States. However, everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure thatthey have their hurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of theseason.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was locatednear latitude 16.8 North, longitude 53.3 West or about 560 mi...905 km E of the leeward islands. Irma is movingtoward the west-southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected latertoday, followed by a west-northwestward turn late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Irmawill move near or over portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday night andearly Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on theSaffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast through Tuesday night. Hurricane-forcewinds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center andtropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).

Watches & Warnings

Changes with this advisory:

The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Warning for the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St.Kitts, and Nevis. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the British Virgin Islands.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Hurricane Warning for the islands of Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten.

The government of France has issued a Hurricane Warning for St. Martin and Saint Barthelemy. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Guadeloupe.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for theU.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra.

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical StormWatch for Dominica.

Summary of watchesand warnings in effect:

A HurricaneWarningis in effect for...

* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis

* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten

* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Guadeloupe

* British Virgin Islands

* U.S. Virgin Islands

* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Dominica

Hazards affectingland

----------------------

STORM SURGE: Thecombination of a dangerous storm surge and large breaking waves will raisewater levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels along thecoasts of the extreme northern Leeward Islands within the hurricane warningarea near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompaniedby large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricaneconditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by Tuesday night,with tropical storm conditions expected by late Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within thehurricane watch area by late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possibleby early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Irma isexpected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches across theLeeward Islands, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across the northernLeeward Islands. These rainfall amounts may cause life-threatening flash floodsand mudslides.

Discussion– Dangerous and life-threatening conditions are expected across the northernCaribbean this week as Major Hurricane Irma barrels through. Irma is expectedto bring deteriorating and perhaps devastating conditions across the LeewardIslands Tuesday and Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Irma, currently a Category 3 hurricane, will passnear or over the Leeward Islands Tuesday night into Wednesday, and may undergofurther intensification. The current track of Irma will put Antigua andBarbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, Anguilla and the U.S. and BritishVirgin Islands, in the brunt of the storm's rain and wind during this time.Impacts could also be felt across the far northern Windward Islands as well.

Irma poses an imminent danger to these areas. Preparations for the storm shouldbe rushed to completion in these areas. Widespread power outages and damage totrees and structures are likely where the eye of the storm passes directly overor makes its closest approach.

Irma will track near Puerto Rico Wednesday andWednesday night, delivering flooding rain and damaging winds along with thethreat for mudslides. Rainfall will be heavy enough to trigger flash flooding,mudslides and road washouts. Amounts of 4 to 8 inches of rain can be expectedon the islands.

Farther to the west, interests on Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, theBahamas and eastern Cuba should closely monitor the progression of MajorHurricane Irma. A track near or over these locations is becoming increasinglylikely towards the end of the week, which would bring life-threateningconditions to residents and any vacationers.

 

However, fluctuations in Irma’s strength and track are expected over the nextcouple of days, so the exact track the hurricane will take is still unknown.Regardless, interests are urged to prepare now and have a plan in place.

Uncertainty greatly increases heading into theweekend and next week as Irma tracks closer to the United States coastline. Giventhe uncertainty that remains, all interests along the Gulf and East coastsshould closely monitor the forecast path of Irma this week and review emergencyand evacuation procedures in case they need to be implemented.

Behind Irma, a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located hundredsof miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands will need to be monitored forpotential development. This system will move into a favorable environment fororganizing and gaining strength as it moves to the west-northwest toward theLesser Antilles during the latter part of this week. The next storm in theAtlantic Basin would acquire

Atlantic – Hurricane Irma:The storm track for Irma is getting closer to northernLeeward Islands with each new forecast Hurricane Watches are now in effect.

 

Irma has been moving more westward since the previous advisory,but the longer-term motion estimate is still south of due west or 260/12kt. A strong high pressure ridge overthe central Atlantic should steer Irma westward to west-southwestward duringthe next couple of days. After thattime, a turn toward the west-northwest should occur as Irma approaches thewestern portion of the Atlantic ridge. The cross-track spread of the guidance is still relatively small throughday 5, but the ECMWF, UKMET, and HWRF are on the southern side of the guidanceenvelope, with the GFS near the middle of the envelope. The latest NHC track is once again near theconsensus of these typically reliable models, which is between the southernedge of the guidance and the TCVN multi-model consensus. The updated track is not very different fromthe previous advisory, except at day 5 where it is slightly west of theprevious forecast.

 

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast tracksince strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center. Infact, ASCAT data that arrived after the issuance of the previous advisoryindicated that the size of the tropical-storm-force wind field has expanded,especially over the northern semicircle. As a result, the initial and forecast wind radii have been adjusted accordingly.

 

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is expected to impact the northeastern Leeward Islandsby the middle of this week as a major hurricane, accompanied by dangerous wind,storm surge, and rainfall impacts, along with rough surf and rip currents. Hurricane watches have been issued for portionsof the Leeward Islands and additional hurricane or tropical storm watches maybe required on Monday. Residents inthese areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials.

 

2. Irma is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricanethrough the upcoming week and could directly affect the British and U.S. VirginIslands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.Residents in all of these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listento advice given by officials. Tropical stormor hurricane watches could be issued for the British and U.S. Virgin Islandsand Puerto Rico on Monday.

 

3. It is too early to determine what direct impacts Irma mighthave on the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that theyhave their hurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.

 

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma waslocated near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 49.8 West. Irma is moving toward thewest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westwardto west-southwestward motion with some reduction in forward speed is expectedthrough Monday night. On the forecasttrack, the center of Irma is forecast to approach the northern Leeward Islandslate Tuesday.

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on theSaffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-forcewinds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center andtropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).

 

Watches& Warning

 

The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Watchfor the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis.

 

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Hurricane Watch for the islands of Saba, St. Eustatius, andSint Maarten.

 

The government of France has issued a Hurricane Watchfor St. Martin and Saint Barthelemy.

 

Interests in the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the Britishand U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Irma. Additional Hurricane and Tropical StormWatches may be required for portions of this area on Monday.

 

Hazards affectingland

----------------------

WIND: Hurricaneconditions are possible within the watch area by Tuesday night, with tropicalstorm conditions possible by late Tuesday.

 

Eastern Atlantic – A tropical wave located several hundred milessouthwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showersand thunderstorms that are currently displaced well to the west of the waveaxis. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development during thenext few days, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the weekwhile the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph over thetropical Atlantic Ocean.

Same issue here...a few people have reported this issue.

New one today. After log in, click on Dashboard:

Whoops! Something went wrong

 

You do not have a loyalty number associated with your account. Please contact Captain's Club at "1-844-418-6824" so that we can assign you a loyalty number. To plan your reservation, please call

 

 

 

 

 

CLOSE

 

I encountered the same problem just now....so this is possibly a system wide issue. When I logged on yesterday, our CC #s were listed. So this is something that has happened overnight. Possibly a database upgrade with CC #s not porting over.

Just found the new travel warning to Mexico for U.S. Citizens..

 

https://travel.state.gov/content/passports/en/alertswarnings/mexico-travel-warning.html

 

We will be on The Reflection which has a scheduled port stop in Cozumel Dec. 31..

 

Has any one been notified of any schedule changes for Mexican ports in the next few weeks.. If so, please advise what the changes were.. I was looking forward to going into Cozumel, again, but understand the major problems with gangs, they have had in many areas of Mexico.. It's sad for me to see these problems that the people of Mexico have with gangs..We've driven in Mexico many times in our young single years & had such wonderful experiences there & met so many lovely people in Mexico..:(:(

 

This is actually pretty much the same travel warnings that the US govt. has been issuing for Mexico over the past several years. There is really nothing new. The northern border towns and drug routes are the hot spots that the warning addresses. Many of the resort areas on the Pacific side are safe, with some exceptions, and most of the resorts on the Yucatan are safe. With your concern for Cozumel, it is very safe given that it is an island on the Caribbean side....along with Isla Mujeres etc. While the state has seen an uptick in homicides, the tourist are not the ones being targeted.

While there is no limit, if I remember correctly, you cannot order more than one drink at a time to exceed the number of cards you have in a given time period...say 10 minutes.

A follow up to my error report - I did finally find away to see the Drink & Dinner Packages, but it is not easy to find. It is something that should be right on the reservation dashboard.

Computer type: Dell & HP

 

 

Operating System: Windows 10

 

 

Browser: IE

 

 

Cookies/Cache cleared: NO

 

 

In Private Browsing: NO

 

 

Logged In: Yes

 

 

Deposited Reservation: Yes

 

 

Searching for new booking: NO

 

 

Searching for shore excursion: No

 

 

Searching for dining/beverage package: YES

 

 

Luggage Tags: too soon

 

 

Cruise Connection Sign up: NO

 

 

Booked with Celebrity or TA: Celebrity

 

 

Before or after final payment: After

 

 

Error Encountered: Three items: (1) Does not show what I have purchased with regards to Drink / Dinner / Internet Packages so that I can make changes. (2) Could not find the Drink / Internet / Dinner Packages page to make purchases. (3) Looking to upgrade to a suite, when logged in, I'm given one price, when not logged in I'm given the suite guarantee price.

Just curious, since all water is made onboard these days, how is the "tap" water for drinking on the Queens? Specifically the Queen Vic....

Feedback for the website - I'm currently traveling in Germany so I'm accessing the website thru a German ISP, so the website comes up ONLY in German with no option for English - at least I don't see it. My recommendation is to have other language options other than the local nationality.

 

Just my opinion.....[/quote

 

Several possibilities exist to change your ISP if you wish.

 

OH how so....don't leave me hanging.