Rumpelstump

If you have Crew Appreciation included in your cruise fare pre-paid,  then the crew  gets paid your appropriate allocation of money.  Your only remaining option is to decide how much extra you want to give to the crew while onboard.

On Thursday, September 1, the Silver Sea's Muse dopped off 220 passengers and picked up 220 passengers.  These voyages held under 35% of the ships 596-guest capacity.

Source:  Port of Vancouver/Canada Place staff.

Today Viking's Orion is departing with 740 passengers.  Not too bad for a ship having a capacity of 930 because 80% full appears to be a good fill as compared with other cruises.

The Zuiderdam has 1300 passengers today--  68% full.

Source: port staff.   

I could not get a count of the number of passengers on the Grand Princess.  Lets just say "not too many!"

Labor disputes creating cruise ship departure delays in the Port of Vancouver. 

Few items to report today

1) The HA Koningsdam has about 2026 passengers departing today. Capacity 2650

2) The Majestic Princess has about 960 passengers departing today.  Capacity 3560.    Wow are they running near empty!   Also,  this large ship has to depart during low tide to fit under the Lions Gate Bridge. The ship is still in port as I write this post.

3) The Oceania Regatta is still in port as of 9:13 pm tonight.  The ship was scheduled to depart at 6PM 

My sources for this information  are Vancouver Port staff.  

Additionally,  The Regatta required some repairs at the C-Span ship yards in North Vancouver.  C-Span workers are on strike contributing to delays.

The low passenger loads on these ships, especially the Majestic, suggest the hot demand for cruises as described by the cruise companies,  are more hype than fact.  I realize that Vancouver is only one port.  The situation may be different elsewhere.  I still think Vancouver  port is a fair bell weather indicating that the cruise industry continues to suffer from weak demand.    We shall see if I am correct.

Today, in the North Vancouver drydock are 1) National Geographic Resolution and 2) Oceania Regatta

On Wednesday, August 17,  port workers told me there were roughly 1300 passengers boarding the Zuiderdam.  The passenger capacity is roughly 1970. Sorry for the delay in posting that.

Today, port workers told me that the Celebrity Millennium, having a capacity of 2218 passengers  had 900 passengers disembarking and 1300 embarking.  There were about 200 passengers disembarking Windstar Star Breeze and 200 embarking today. The Star Breeze capacity is 312.   

Many cruise ships serving Vancouver are running below breakeven.  Perhaps passengers on these voyages can reign in on the crowd sizes. 

A walk,  bike,  or e-bike on the sea wall around Stanley park is a great way to spend a few hours. Consider the Vancouver aquarium.  Also consider visiting the anthropology museum at University of British Columbia. The UBC campus is real nice.  Public transportation in Vancouver is excellent and cheap.  Use public transportation to get to yvr and other venues. The big issue is where to store your luggage.  Perhaps the places you rent bikes will help you with that but I’m not sure if they will or not. Good luck!

This week, Norwegian Cruise Lines reported another disappointing quarterly earnings report.  Their  loss was roughly $480 million.  OUCH! 

Quoting from an article in Barron's  CEO Frank Del Rio said “We are encouraged by the continued strong consumer demand we are experiencing which is reflected in our record pricing, accelerating booking volumes, especially for 2023 and beyond, and highest ever onboard revenue generation.”  Given the cruise industry's tuff economic climate, del Rio's comment  is the best spin management can provide  their shareholders. 

One encouraging sign was that Norwegian's Regent Seven Sea's subsidiary ship, the Mariner, had roughly 600 passengers disembarking  in Vancouver from the end of their Alaska voyage.  There were roughly 600 passengers boarding on their new voyage going outbound today.  That is a healthier load of passengers or 87 percent of capacity. 

Anecdotally, an encouraging sign  for Holland America might be hype.    When I personally booked a cruise this week with Holland America, I had to wait on hold for roughly 40 minutes to speak with a sales agent signaling strong demand. On the flip side, they only required a one dollar deposit for a cruise reservation. So I have until 90 days till cruise time to really commit which is the spring of 2023.  The cruise I booked is scheduled for summer 2023. So, given the time to cancel with no penalty, demand is suspect. Mixed signals.

Today, 1600 passengers were disembarking and 1600 passengers were embarking on the Zuiderdam.  That is a moderate improvement filling their ship whose capacity is 1964 passengers. 

Jason Liberty, CEO of Royal Caribbean was quoted saying that "to be profitable the company needs to maintain occupancy levels above 90%."   My observations from Vancouver are that Royal Carribian as well as other cruise lines fall short of those numbers.  Lets hope they can boost their sales.

HA Zuiderdam arrived today in Port of Vancouver with roughly 500 passengers.  The ship departed with roughly 1200 passengers. This is substantially below the ship's 1916 passenger capacity.

Source: Port staff

Regent Seven Sea's Mariner, out of dry dock, departed Port of Vancouver today with roughly 400 passengers.  The passenger load is substantially below the ship's 700 passenger capacity.  Source: Port of Vancouver staff.

The Regent Mariner, resting in the drydock at North Vancouver.

Statistics for Grand Princess and HA Koningsdam, yesterday July 23.....

Disembarkations Grand Princess 1793, Koningsdam  2000.   Embarkations 2100 Grand Princess and 2300 for the Koningsdam.  Source:  Port staff.   

Cruise appear to be running at 69- 88% capacity.

In Vancouver today at roughly 2:00pm, warm partly sunny. 

Holland America Zuiderdam 1916- 2272 passengers.  Steady stream of passengers boarding.  This ship might be mostly full.

Princess, Grand - 2600 passenger  Cannot tell the extent the ship is occupied. 

Thanks for the note 3rdGenCunarder.  Your increasing my confidence in my estimates. 

Do cruise lines have enough passenger momentum to be financially viable?

Carnival CEO Arnold was interview a few days ago on CNBC  arguing that the demand for cruises will enable them to achieve 110 percent occupancy this summer.    This optimistic forecast by corporate spokespersons was  in other public statements. During the earnings conference call , CCL CFO Bernstein emphasizes a return to positive cash flow.

Conflicting with the positive spin  pushed by CCL executives, a Barron's article points to Morgan Stanley's analysis of CCL CCL carries  tremendous debt and interest burden.  Looking back to the conference call it appears that CCL corporate uses passenger deposits to finance their cash flow burdens.   It also confronts higher fuel costs and other operating expenses.  Even a small slippage in passenger traffic has the potential to drive the company into debt default.   Lets hope the worst case scenario does not occur. 

My qualitative observation from only one of the many hundreds of cruise ports on this planet is that passenger traffic  lags the pre-covid peak year 2019.  I do not have any hard data. I would like to see the decks on the ships overflowing with passengers so we can maintain a viable cruise industry.  I look forward to  my next cruise-- still not yet booked!

If you stay at the blue horizon, the park is a 15 minute walk.  Add 10 minutes to totem poles. Stanley park sea wall is made for walking. 

June 26, at the Vancouver port around 4pm.  Sunny skis and warm weather.

Departing today were the HA Noordam,  Celebrity Eclipse, and the RC Serenade of the Seas.

Visual observations.  I saw the most people of the season today on the upper deck of the Noordam.  Coming in second was the Serenade and in third place was the Eclipse. Looks like passenger traffic is increasing.  Perhaps we are entering the peak Alaska cruise season, the sales promotions are working, or the weather was so good that more passengers elected to go out on the top deck to observe their departures.  

At Port Vancouver today at roughly 2:00 pm,  19 degrees Celsius.  Sunny!

Lots of passengers on the deck of the Celebrity Millennium.  No so many on the decks of the Queen Elizabeth.

Carnival Cruise Corporation reported earnings today.  A key metric in their report stated that occupancy was 69%.  This occupancy confirms my observations.  There is plenty of excess capacity.  Occupancy is moving in the right direction.  Carnival reported occupancy at 50% in their previous quarterly statements. The cruise line is discounting rooms in an effort to fill their ships. This hurts their margins.  They are loosing money and they are deeply in debt while the cost of capital rises.

I was trekking along the Stanley Park seawall where I can see the Disney Wonder in port.  Later on the Wonder passed by me.  Notice the throng of passengers on the top deck.

In Vancouver today at roughly 4:00 pm,  15 degrees Celsius.

Holland America: Koningsdam 2650 passengers.  Appears busy today.  See the throngs of people on the top decks during the sail away.

Princess: Majestic - 3560  passengers.  I left the pier before this ship departed. From a distance I was able to see a crowd on the top decks at departure time. Fewer people observed as compared with the Koningsdam.

American Queen Expeditions: Ocean Victory - 183 passenger capacity:  Could not tell the quantity of passengers.  I saw few passengers boarding and very few on the decks and on the verandahs. 

Quoteing  Sabrina Escobar

   from Barron's magazine today..

Already, cruise lines have experienced pricing declines from May to June, indicating that bookings may be eroding, according to early June data from Bank of America Securities. BofA analyst Andrew Didora views the slowdown as “more specific to the cruise industry than a larger read to the leisure consumer,” given further Covid-19 pressures, ongoing pushes to ramp up capacity, and difficulty attracting consumers who are new to cruising.

This confirms the lighter than usual loads I see on ships departing Port Vancouver.

In Vancouver today at roughly 3:35pm, light rain, 15 degrees Celsius.

Holland America Zuiderdam 1916- 2272 passengers.  Appears way less than full.  The photo shows passengers during the sail away party on the top deck.

Regent Seven Seas: Mariner - 700 passengers.  Appears sparse.

According to Cruise Industry News, Carnival Corporation ships traveling to Alaska (including Holland America and Princess) requires passengers to mask up on all indoor spaces.  This suggests that Covid contagion is widespread.  There a lots of cruise ship assets on the waters.  They want to keep sailing so they are doing what is necessary to keep the disease spread down. 

See https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/27673-holland-america-and-princess-requiring-face-masks-on-alaska-cruises.html