amatuercruiser

5 hours ago, ollyoeno said:

 

How many people do Carnival and their subsidiaries employ / support worldwide and what is their main theatre of operation?

 

Would Washington allow it?

 

I really hope no one goes broke. But the financial numbers will there own decision makers.

Pan Am went broke, Kodak went broke. The USA government did not bail the cruise lines out two years ago as it argued they were not under any  circumstances USA businesses, Especially in terms of where they pay tax.

The reality is Carnival has increased its debt level of 3 years ago from 9 Billion dollars to approximately 28 Billion dollars and adding.

If I am reading Yahoo finance correctly, Before the pandemic Carnival  made 3 Billion profit  a year.

Simplistically this means it WILL TAKE 7 years in normal times to make enough profit to repay the huge increase in Covid indebtedness. This also means that the money that went to dividends will most likely go to debt repayment.

3 hours ago, MicCanberra said:

I am sure the dividends will recommence within a year or so when cruising has recovered somewhat 

I think that,  possibly the Big Cruise companies will go Bankrupt and then restructure and resurrect without the Covid 19 debt pile and then reinvent themselves as Viable cruise lines.

The CEO of Royal Caribbean just left. He would be the ideal head for RCL 2.

Traveling with Bruce is saying that the creditors are treating Cruise lines as Junk Class entities. He also pointed out that a Slight revaluation of a asset or increase in borrowings etc could trigger mandated contract clauses in loans etc were the interest rate could automatically raise etc which could then momentarily cause a cruise line to be in breach of insolvency rules etc.

In the end I dont care. I just really hope I get to go on a cruise. soon.

12 hours ago, MicCanberra said:

 

As for only getting OBC, then it is a poor investment and would be cheaper to just buy/gift OBC for yourself as needed.

I agree completely Mathematically gifting yourself $2000 worth of Self funded OBC makes a TONNE more sense than buying HIGHLY leveraged , no dividend Carnival stock.

It is such a pity.

4 hours ago, OzKiwiJJ said:

Even try a cruise first - you might find you hate modern cruising.

I sort of hope that does not happen.

Before I loved the free food idea but I eat less now so maybe a cruise possibly wont be that special.

I hope not as I think now I might enjoy the shore excursions more.

3 hours ago, MicCanberra said:

 

CCL - Carnival went as low as $8.50 Usd back in March 2020, with a high of $72.

RCL.had a low of $23 and a high of $133.

NCL had a low of $8.50 and a high of $60.

 

Do you due diligence before finding out you have shares that are not providing any returns.

If I do any due diligence on Carnival, then the answer is don't buy the shares. But If I look at the coolness of saying to someone "We got a "FREE" $250 shareholder benefit on the cruise"

Then maybe its slightly wort it.

But as Bruce of Travelling with Bruce said these companies are now so indebted they are all technically junk bonds and normal Investment Funds can no longer legally invest in Cruse lines. Which leaves borrowing at 14% interest as there only option.

I was looking at the probability of Carnival going bankrupt on google search. The consensus of responses was about a 50 / 50 chance. Too much debt not enough income. The New York Stock exchange is very fussy about Bankruptcy rules.

28 minutes ago, OzKiwiJJ said:

So you haven't cruised since?

No cruising since Fairstar 40 years ago.

I had Norwegian Cruise line ringing me up all the time offering better and better deals to take a cruise from Singapore and then the Princess Ship got stuck in Japan with Hundreds of Covid and then it was all cancelled.

52 minutes ago, OzKiwiJJ said:

Who do you regularly cruise with?

40 Years ago I cruised with P&O on the Fairstar to Mystery Island etc from Sydney. Best trip of my life.

8 hours ago, OzKiwiJJ said:

You only need 100 shares to get the OBC. There is no point in buying any more as it doesn't give you any extra OBC. 

Yes I completely agree on only risking 100 Share purchase. The question is should I just buy Carnival or RCLand NCL.

7 hours ago, ollyoeno said:

 

Carnival, RCL. Ideal time right now, given the recent announcements.

What announcements? There have been so many. The Main announcement to me is the CEO of RCL stepping down.

16 minutes ago, ollyoeno said:

 

Yes. I'm bullish on this,

Which Cruise stock are you thinking of?

I am thinking Carnival because they have the following Subsidiary lines in Australian Waters

P&O

Princess

HAL

Carnival.

Cunard

Plus Carnival shares are about half the price of RCL.

But I am very afraid of the huge debt these cruise lines are now carrying. Something like $8 Billion debt  has ballooned to $28 Billion for Carnival.

Is any one considering Buying Shares in Carnival or NCL,or RCL to get the Shareholder benefit?

3 hours ago, LittleFish1976 said:

 

What sort of sushi do you eat? Hand roll? sashimi? Tuna? salmon? chicken teriyaki roll?

 

I

I like Sushi, , basically any type.Here in the Philippines we get a lot of Yellow Fin Tuna at the Fish Markets. Which I eat as Sushi on Japanese rice.

But I am not super fussy. I am sort of happy to eat any type of Japanese raw fish or seafood.

My main happiness is sort of being a "kid in a candy store" at the buffet and being able to eat as much of this delicacy as I want. Especially if i am on holiday.

With the Cruise ship industry gently starting up again. Does any one lucky enough to go cruising have any update on complimentary Sushi availability at the Buffet?

5 minutes ago, MicCanberra said:

I don't have your optimism, I think they (cruise lines) will survive

How?

Lets assume 6 more months no USA Alaska cruises.

Japan Feb 2021 Maybe

Europe Jan 2021 maybe

Carnival lost 4.5 Billion last quarter.

2 More quarters layup costs at say 3.2 Billion a Quarter.

Interest payments on Junk Bonds at approx 12% for 7 months

There Losses are nearly bigger than the capitalization of Carnival.

I wish it was not true ..Carnival has done nothing wrong its just in the wrong place at the wrong time.

4 minutes ago, MicCanberra said:

Yes, the big drops happened at the first announcement of not cruising until June, then they had the semi recovery from the re-mortgaging of the lines but since then it is basically just having small ups and downs.

Small ups and downs of share market one thing...... but CCL (OFFICIALLY) Loosing $4.5 Billion in a quarter I think is unrecoverable. Hertz, Carnival, RCL,Norwegian I think are heading for Chap 11 .. (Through no fault of the cruise lines.)

3 minutes ago, MicCanberra said:

I think a lot of the current movement is from the same people/companies buying and selling in bulk quantities and manipulating he market to make a short term profit (albeit very short term), Rather than anything the cruise line industry is actually doing.

June 2019 Carnival Cruise line fills ship 102% occupancy, Casino, Restaurants Buzz passengers happy Cruise ship Share price stay same or goes up a tiny  Bit, Company pays small Dividend.

May 2020 Cruise company Carnival announces no cruises until November, ships sit idle, Dividend cancelled..share price rises %300 from $9 to 40.  

5 hours ago, Kiwi Kruzer said:

Carnival bonds now ranked as “junk bonds”

 

 

The mighty have fallen..sadly through no fault of their own.

15 minutes ago, Moviela said:

Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc are two separate companies reporting together. Carnival Corporation is incorporated in The Republic of Panama, and Carnival plc is registered in England and Wales. They have numerous operating companies registered in many countries. The companies are listed on the NY and LON exchanges to attract investors on both sides of the Atlantic. 

 

Quote

Thanks for the interesting response.

 

I thought they were one company "Carnival" with a THREE  classes of stock with DIFFERENT Voting rights.

 

CCL  Listed on NYSE

CUK Listed on NYSE

CCL Listed on LSE

 

Also the CCL.LSE and CUK.NYSE apparently has different voting rights and also one extra type of share.

In the recently release Financial report I saw a section ..(from memory) Two classes of share

Carnival Stock issued at .01 par

and Carnival Stock issued at approx $1.77

I agree on the Extra Shares issued by Carnival Diluting the current share Holding.

Carnival is no longer the Fit and trim organization it was two months ago.

It is very battered and bruised. now carrying $6 Billion of Junk Bond indebtedness  and 8% more share holders to split a future dividend around.

Quote

 

1 hour ago, DiamondFour said:

My next move will be to banking shares and I am investigating other companies to invest in at the moment.

What are you nibbling at. Aust or International. Dividend or Capital growth?

37 minutes ago, Aus Traveller said:

it is reasonable to think the shares could rise to $25-$30. That is what I would be looking for, capital gain.

Capital gain is likely all you will get.

The approx 4% Dividend of  $2 a $50 Carnival share ...Once apon a time ago. Was good. Plus OBC made it even more appealing.

The Carnival dividend is now officially stopped.

If all Cruise ships start again I think it would be at least one year before the dividend could be justified. Especially since they have to now pay down $6 Billion in emergency finance.

The share holder on Board Credit I imagine will continue but there is no guarantee.

Do you think the CCL, RCL share price has Bottomed?

I think the approx 80% price drop in Carnival and  RCL share price,  prices-in a lot of future pain..but, it does not necessarily mean you are buying at the best time!

I think Carnivals Bond refinancing is good and timely but.

Right now Carnival's last Cruises are having enormous trouble disembarking crew. (Sydney Australia issues etc.)

The world-wide lock-down has 6 weeks minimum to go.

After lockdown ends  ships will have to get approval from Health authorities that they are safe! Possibly another 6 weeks delay.

So what will happen to the share price in the next 12 weeks?

Will any one have any paid holiday leave, to go on a holiday let alone a cruise ship.

Will any one have any disposable income left after 6 to 12 Week of lock-down.

If you buy now and the cruise line goes into bankruptcy you have kissed your money goodbye.

Carnival is no longer a $50 stock  but it might in the future be a $20-$30 Stock.

I am going to wait out a few weeks and bump out the bottom, passed bankruptcy and then look at cruise lines or Berkshire (I figure BRK can't go Bankrupt).

11 hours ago, NavyCruiser said:

Thinking of using our combined $2400 to buy 100 shares of RCL stock at around $22 & 100 shares of CCL stock at $8, around $3000 total.

 

So that considered re-investing into the economy...?

Do you think the CCL, RCL share price has Bottomed?

I think the approx 80% price drop in Carnival and  RCL share price,  prices-in a lot of future pain..but, it does not necessarily mean you are buying at the best time!

I think Carnivals Bond refinancing is good and timely but.

Right now Carnival's last Cruises are having enormous trouble disembarking crew. (Sydney Australia issues etc.)

The world-wide lock-down has 6 weeks minimum to go.

After lockdown ends  ships will have to get approval from Health authorities that they are safe! Possibly another 6 weeks delay.

So what will happen to the share price in the next 12 weeks?

Will any one have any paid holiday leave, to go on a holiday let alone a cruise ship.

Will any one have any disposable income left after 6 to 12 Week of lock-down.

If you buy now and the cruise line goes into bankruptcy you have kissed your money goodbye.

Carnival is no longer a $50 stock  but it might in the future be a $20-$30 Stock.

I am going to wait out a few weeks and bump out the bottom, passed bankruptcy and then look at cruise lines or Berkshire (I figure BRK can't go Bankrupt).

6 hours ago, Kiwi Kruzer said:

Just gone to single digits...

 

 

 

Note the dividend return reading ......I think that may change. 🤭

 I think the Market is also forward  Price factoring in the Diluting effect of  EXTRA approx "1 Billion" shares that Carnival are issuing.

Carnival issued a statement stopping the Dividend.

On 3/30/2020 at 6:09 AM, Aus Traveller said:

 

I would not hazard a guess on what the costs would total, but it would be nowhere near 40%.

Wedbush analyst James Hardiman said in a note on Tuesday that Carnival is suffering "a monthly cash burn of approximately $500 million" and the fresh injection of cash should keep the company afloat for the next 12 to 13 months.

Ok so Laying up is Costing Carnival $500 M a month. That's $3 Billion for 6 Months worst case..I think that is do able and survivable for Carnival.

Carnival RCL and NCLH Chance of Surviving.

1 Carnival NCLH and RCL did not get a bailout..

2.New rules. No Taxes to USA Gov No Taxpayer money from USA.

3Covid19 and Cruise ships have made a lot of People very Sick and dying.

4The court cases against Cruise lines. have not started yet

5Laying ships up is still expensive, wild guess %40 of normal running costs.

6.NO ONE..NO ONE, knows how long this shutdown will go on.

7. Covid19 affects the Most popular Cruise line age-group 60-70 year olds.

8 Any one buying CCL stock runs Risk of Market bottoming into Chap 11 or Bankruptcy.

My recommendation is wait until there is a treatment or Cure to Covid19 and then if the Carnival share price is not bankrupt buy some then.