parody

To add another component to the title of this post, I was flying through an airport in France and was waiting at the gate on my ticket when I heard an announcement in French (which I do not speak).  Shortly thereafter others at the gate got up and left.  Finding someone who is bilingual, I found out that the announcement concerned a last minute change of gates!

19 minutes ago, Zach1213 said:

 

But even these are very different websites. Expedia allows you to book tickets, for example, whereas Kayak is just a search engine for other sites (reputable and not). It's a bit unfair to compare them on the same scale.

Well, all these sites search flight options.  And  while sites like Expedia are truly an online TA, Kayak does take one directly to where the flight found can be booked.  Possibly more important for US travel, however,  they also highlight when Southwest Airlines can be an option.   This is something that Expedia and Travelocity do not do.  Still, one has to go to Southwest.com to do an actual booking.

One website that posts reviews of other websites, gives these scores out of 5:

• Expedia -- 4.3
• Travelocity -- 4.2
• Justfly -- 4.1
• Kayak -- 3.5

It would appear that if no changes need to be made, you should be ok. 

https://www.feefo.com/en-US/reviews/justfly?displayFeedbackType=BOTH&timeFrame=YEAR

FlyerTalker raises a good issue.  If you are interested in the when and where, see the site mentioned earlier.  Others who have examined how far in advance to purchase an air fare, showed this graph.

Generally, air fares to San Juan do go down after Christmas, but it's not like they go down to their lowest levels and stay there.

To get a good idea of the variability over time check out this site:  https://www.faredetective.com/farehistory/flights-from-Durham_Raleigh-RDU-to-San_Juan-SJU.html

Good data, as always.

 

Unfortunately, it won't help with looking at delays/cancellations at ARN or LHR. And since the OP doesn't mention which USA airports are involved....

Good point, but it's a tradeoff between data over a long period of time for US carriers vs. short-term data for International carriers/airports. For example, for today, some 20% of the flights were cancelled at LHR and only 4% at ARN. https://flightaware.com/live/cancelled/

This information is easily available on a daily basis, but I'm less sure about getting it over a longer period of time.

Although as others said, weather can be unpredictable, to answer your question, this site in Table 8 will answer your question for December 2017. https://www.transportation.gov/sites/dot.gov/files/docs/resources/individuals/aviation-consumer-protection/304371/2018februaryatcr_0.pdf

There are at least a couple of more items that you can consider. First, if airfares do go down because of a sale, what can you do? For example, if it is Southwest Airlines, you can make a no-cost change and get a credit for the fare difference. This is the most generous in the industry. To see what to do for other airlines, check out http://www.farecompare.com/travel-advice/how-to-get-your-money-back-when-airfare-drops-2/#/

The second thing that you can do is to explore what changes or variability exists in prior fares in your market. Sometimes fares exhibit little variation so it makes little sense to wait. In other markets, fares change frequently and so it pays to wait until you hit a low point. To see variations in your market, go to http://www.faredetective.com/farehistory/flights-from-Houston-HOU-to-San_Diego-SAN.html

P.S. Just saw this related post on Trip Advisor. https://www.tripadvisor.com/ShowTopic-g1-i10702-k10549119-Southwest-Air_Travel.html

A website that does much of what you want is http://www.faredetective.com/farehistory/

I don't believe you can get fares for every possible fare class but it is extremely useful in showing the historical patterns of average fares over time which can be quite helpful in determining the value of buying a fare now or waiting.

And you're point is what? I put the initial list together quickly and forgot about this negative until you mentioned it. :rolleyes:

If you truly just "forgotten" about it, you could have simply said so in post #41 rather than highlight it as a new thought on your part.

 

2. WN doesn't share their data with 3rd party sites. So if you go to Expedia for instance, to compare flights from XXX to YYY, you won't see the WN flights, even if they're available, and you'll have to check multiple websites to ensure you've checked prices and routings for ALL airlines

A very valid point -- one that you have never once mentioned in all your previous posts.

Actually, Southwest only has dates up to April 24th. I'm waiting for April 28 to open up...

Sorry--a moving target. "On November 1, 2016 we (Southwest) will open our schedule for sale through May 8, 2017. This date is subject to change. Please check back frequently." https://www.southwest.com/air/flight-schedules/index.html?clk=GSUBNAV-AIR-SCHEDULES

On a related note, I'm not saying 331 days out is the cheapest or that's when anyone should buy, but to compare apples to apples, you can't do it when WN and B6 don't release their schedules when everyone else does and that was the essence of what I said was a downside to WN.

Again you have missed my point. Your argument should be not that Southwest doesn't release their fares and schedules in a manner like legacy carriers, but rather they don't share their data with other third party sites; thus one cannot do a simple side-by-side comparison. The implication is if one wants to begin looking at airfares 4 months prior to departure (say) and schedules will exist for both WN and B6 at that time, a meta-search site will typically include B6 but not WN. Thus, like it or not, one is forced to also look at Southwest. com to get a complete picture of options. Also, a true comparison would look at the total cost (including baggage fees, the odds of suffering through an involuntary denied boarding, and the expected value of a flight change). Some sites make an effort to do this unlike popular sites like Orbitz, Travelocity, and Expedia.

7. a)I don't think you understand what I mean by delayed release. Example: If I want to book a flight to XXX for early next September, I can book it today for travel in September on Delta, United or American. I can't book it on WN because they don't release Sept 2017 tickets for sale this early. b) I have no idea what you comment about never seeing JetBlue means. c) I never said there was a problem buying tickets for the next day, but the fact of the matter is you can't book a WN ticket as far out as you can for the legacy airlines and that can be important.

Currently, the schedule for Southwest Airlines goes through May 8, 2017. JetBlue operates a very similar rolling schedule and currently it goes through June 14, 2017. So any ticket that you may want to purchase for September 2017 would not show either of these airlines and that would be a big mistake. In addition, looking for a fare out 330 days while possible for legacy airlines would also be a big mistake. There probably is something more recent, but folks that have examined over 500 million fare searches found that on average, the lowest domestic fare was found at 7 weeks prior to departure. See the nice figure shown at https://www.cheapair.com/blog/travel-tips/how-far-in-advance-should-i-book-my-flight/#more-800490460

2. No, I would not call flights to the Caribbean "transoceanic."

6. Great.... if you happen to be one of the few air travelers needing to go from Providence to Baltimore, LOL.

 

7. And it most certainly is delayed release. The legacy airlines open their schedules 330 days out, or about 11 months ahead. Southwest only opens theirs something like 6 months ahead. I call that a delayed release.

 

8. You actually mentioned another reason not to like Southwest that I hadn't listed, and it's the fact that if you are trying to do an easy comparison of flight options and prices via Expedia or similar, you won't see any Southwest data. (completely different from #7 above)

 

:)

2. OK

6. There are other O/D pairs where ONLY WN operates. I mentioned that one because I have used it frequently.

7. With that line of reasoning about "delayed releases", one would never see jetBlue? How about a flight I want to take the next day and WN schedules certainly exist.

8. True, can't easily do one-stop shopping. But if you are against WN anyway, it makes no difference.

Any number of things, depending on what's important to you.

 

2. No transoceanic flights

6. Depending on your home airport, lack of flights and/or inconvenient routing options

7. Delayed release of flights for sale makes it difficult to compare apples to apples when comparison shopping with other airlines

2. Well, Southwest does now fly to San Juan and other Caribbean destinations. Is that considered "transoceanic"?

6. The only airline that flies nonstop between Providence and Baltimore is Southwest. Use Expedia or Orbitz and see how they provides only flights that stop along the way.

7. It really isn't "delayed release", but rather it is that they don't share their fare information with other sites. At least with Kayak, you will get a notification that Southwest flights may be available.

I did not think you could even do that with JB?

We will be booking with JB knowing we can not cancel or change.

But you CAN make changes on jetBlue. Their website makes it very difficult to find out what the fees are. But if you just Google it, you can find their complicated fee structure at http://help.jetblue.com/SRVS/CGI-BIN/webisapi.dll?New,Kb=askBlue,case=obj(404766))

Check Jet Blue.

JetBlue is a great airline that I have used many times. But the answer still hinges on uncertainty and future use of Southwest Airlines. In the past it was possible to make changes for no additional fees, but, note that jetBlue now charges between $70 and $135 for such a privilege.

I can currently book my flight there, one way, but my return on the 28th isn't available yet.

 

Do you think I should book my flight down right now

I know that you said that this fare is no longer available, but the answer to your question hinges on how likely you are to use Southwest in the future. If it is very likely, you should go ahead and book the one-way fare down and then wait for the return fares to open up. Since there is no fee to cancel a flight, you can always do so if necessary and bank the money for some other future flight on Southwest as long as you remember your Confirmation Number and do so within 1 year of your initial booking. Really can't do this on any other airline.

OP, to answer your original question, go to flightaware.com and search for flights between Barcelona and Paris. If you click on any of the flights shown you can get (in the free version anyway) a list of times that flight landed over the last 7 days and what their average is. From that you can get an idea of which flights are reliable.

I don't know how you did your search for flights, but is it possible that all the desirable flights are sold out and thus don't show up in a standard search?

Good idea, but no dice. It gives me a message that says that due to modifications with my reservations, I can't make changes online.

This is confusing as one can make modifications to reservation of tickets already purchased online. However, to answer your original question:

Southwest LUV Vouchers must be redeemed and all travel completed by the expiration date indicated.

But, note that it was once possible (not sure if it still exists) to pay to extend one's credit for another 6 months beyond its 1-year time period.

By looking at http://www.faredetective.com/farehistory/flights-from-Toronto-YYZ-to-Fort_Lauderdale-FLL.html

you can see that airfares between Toronto and FLL increased about once a month on a very consistent basis over the past year. Thus, one can surmise with some assurance, that that trend will continue.

Certainly folks would like to see that all maintenance directives are followed. But, to put it into perspective, on the news last night it was mentioned that Southwest has had only 1 fatality in 50 years of flying.

This statistic can bounce around a little from quarter to quarter or year to year. For example, in 2012, jetBlue led the industry with a miniscule 0.01 involuntary denied boardings per 10,000 passengers http://abcnews.go.com/Travel/airline-report-names-best-worst-2012/story?id=18904919.

As I recall, a few years before that they went the entire year with NO involuntary denied boardings.