pinbot_67

We were all set to go in July on the Liberty of the Seas with my wife and kids when our cruise got cancelled.  We received a FCC for each person in the family.  We would like to cruise next year, but the kids won't be able to then.  Can I use their FCC for my wife and I?

If you had only known....

About 1 hr before they cancelled the cruise, I received an email saying that my bid to upgrade to Haven had been accepted for $1000/pp. Checked and they indeed charged my credit card. Now, after they refund it all I should have an extra $1000 credit to book next cruise!

Anyone know how soon the refund and future credit will be available?

the number of cabins is of course an important factor and a number nobody will know. Heck, even the folks at NCL might not know because cabins come open as those folks move up.

 

BUT - the #1 factor is actually how much you bid. You have to bid MORE than the next person. Does not matter how many cabins are available, you have to be among the top 1 if one cabin. Among the top 2 if two cabins. Among the top 3 if three cabins, etc.

 

You always have to bid more than somebody else.

This is not true and Ill try to explain why:

I don't know how NCL determines who gets upgrades other than I can guarantee their goal is to maximize revenue. Now, how can a lower bid bring in more revenue than a higher bid? Because whoever gets upgrades then releases their cabin for other bidders in lower categories. It cascades down the line, and if lower stateroom categories bid more on cabins that themselves have offered a lower bid on higher categories than the max bid then it is entirely possible that they might win because overall, it would generate more revenue. I say possible because there are certainly other factors NCL uses as well that we have no idea what they are.

The faulty assumption is that this process is "fair" in the mathematical sense. The reality is that it is not fair at all; NCL manipulates the system to maximize its revenue. So a lower bid may win over a high bid because somewhere else in the calculation there is some unknown factor that maximizes revenue.

Like a previous poster said, just bid what you are willing to spend and you win either way.

And like the previous poster who has an advanced degree, he is right that with enough winning information data, it is possible to formulate a probability of scoring a certain upgrade under certain conditions.