Hurricane Expert

Hi, i am looking at two different cruises that are sailing in august, i am a bit worried about hurricanes during that time giving us bad weather. I was curious to see if you thought that either itinerary would be more prone to a hurricane. Cruise #1 : Carnival conquest sailing august 2nd-9th out of Ft.Lauderdale florida. Ports are St.maarten, antigua, st.thomas, nassau. Cruise #2 august 9th through 16, carnival dream sailing from New orleans, ports are: Isla roatan, Belize, cozumel. I know its not an exact science and you could be totally wrong predicting which one is worse, but if you generally cruise in august you may know a bit more than i do. Thanks

Maybe slight higher chance NE Carib. Not enough to pick one over the other though. Can happen either place at that time of year.

You have to realize that if it rains, even .01" it counts as a rainy day according to the computers.

My previous forecast still looks ok for Fri and Sat. Sunday looks better as the storm appears to be heading a bit farther east. So Sat and Sun should be fine.

We are hoping for a smooth ride for the 2 night CTN out of NY this weekend(11/7-11-9). Last weekend looked bad. Is there such a thing as a wave forecast?

I'm not sure what is a CTN? Anyhow, Friday looks windy with another storm with cold weather. Seas will be 10' or more - offshore. Less near shore as the winds will be from the NW. Saturday and Sunday seas will drop off. Saturday looks nice and Sunday there should be increasing clouds with rain late in the day with the next storm approaching from the south.

The forecast models are still taking Vance in the general direction of Puerto Vallarta, but weakening it before landfall by the middle of next week.

Miami - to Puerto Rico - St. Thomas and St. Thomas .... how will the seas be?

Well, I assume that the 2nd "St. Thomas" is really St. Martin and I'm not really sure what days you'll be at what location. So generally speaking.... Most days during the time frame seas will be about 4-5 feet. There will be a day or two in the middle of the period where seas may be around 10 feet. That's not a big deal for the cruise ships.

Vance was named yesterday afternoon. There is no change in the forecast thinking from the past few days, although some weakening is expected before it reaches the coast early next week.

NHC finally named the tropical depression. It really is a storm already and they should upgrade later this morning. Models continue to support scenario from a few days ago with a tropical system affecting the area near Puerto Vallarta early next week.

A new tropical depression appears to have formed this morning south of Mexico. Early model forecast suggest this may be a concern early next week near Puerto Vallarta. I wouldn't be too concerned at this point.

Just wondering how rough to expect it at sea during this cruise due to Hurricane Gonzala? Also wondering if there will be a change in itinerary? The weather report shows rain every day.

? Hurricane Gonzalo has been gone for a while.

Hi

 

Can anyone give me an indication what the weather is going to be like on a transatlantic (Tenerife to Caribbean) beginning to mid Nov. Trying to think what I need to pack.

Average temps in Tenerife are in the 70's for highs and 60's for lows. The temps in the Caribbean are generally in the 80's - highs / 70's lows.

With a cruise of that length you are going to see some sunny and some rainy days. I know that's not any help. BTW you will be cruising with the trade winds, so the winds may actually be lighter unless you encounter a front or thunderstorm cluster.

We leave on Sunday for a land-based stay (thru 11/1). Weather channel shows 80% chance of rain nearly all week. Concerned about weather and not sure if we should cancel or chance it...

A front will stall just north of Jamaica and weaken. There will be scattered showers and storms, but also nice weather too. What most people don't realize is that if it rains .01" that counts as a day with rain according to the computers.

Hopefully some better news to post today for my Cruise Critic friends. The first system as planned will move across the Florida straits Friday and move out into the Atlantic by Saturday. This is a little faster than predicted. This is a non tropical low. It will still bring unsettled weather to extreme south Florida and into the northern Bahamas for the next couple of days.

TD 9 moved into the Yucatan last evening. Even though the NW Caribbean is expected to see unsettled weather over the next several days, forecast models have backed off on development. This weekend actually looks pretty good from Cancun to the NW Bahamas as the most of the wet weather shifts just south of these areas. I still be keeping an eye on the situation for early next week.

TD 9 classified last night. The same general scenario is in place with this system moving over the Yucatan soon. It may become a tropical storm briefly. NHC says a non tropical low will develop on the front and bring rain to the Keys / northern Bahamas Thursday into early Saturday.

The leftovers from TD 9 will move into the NW Caribbean. That's what needs to be watched for next week. It will bring unsettled weather to the NW Carib early next week. After that we're not sure. The models have been all over the place.

I will not be able to answer "personal" cruise questions since it will be getting very busy again, but will try to post any forecast info that I can. Thanks!

The low pressure system should move from the Bay of Campeche, over the Yucatan to the Florida straits by Friday. The Keys to the Florida Straits could be pretty wet. By Saturday this low should merge with a front and already be east of the Bahamas.

The front will stall in the NW Caribbean... Another low pressure system is expected to develop next week east of Honduras and drift up toward the Yucatan. Way too early for any details on this system, but the weather does look unsettled.

Heading in that direction Saturday....but Cozumel is our last stop, so it should be OK....

What's your itinerary?

Forecast models show a disturbance in the western Bay of Campeche moving across the Yucatan, western Cuba and eventually northern Bahamas and into the Atlantic. This will be a slow process into the middle and end of this upcoming week. With the proximity to land, it will be difficult to say if any significant development will occur or just cause disorganized stormy weather.

As of 8 PM edt winds are gusting to 96 mph at the weather service. Other reports up to 125 mph have been received.

Gonzalo still targeting Bermuda and will be closest late this afternoon. Hurricane force winds, storm surge, and very heavy rain can be expected today. Prayers for our friends in Bermuda.

Bermuda is going to have a rough day Friday. Even if Gonzalo doesn't pass directly over the island, it will be close enough to produce some big problems. It should be closest to Bermuda during the afternoon. The effects will begin by Friday morning.

I'll throw my two cents in too... Ana has been sheared and is in bad shape right now. It is still predicted to become a hurricane..... We'll see. This depends on if the shear actually slackens. The models have shifted a touch south. This is very important in that it's possible that there won't be a landfall now.

Gonzalo strengthened and will pass very close to Bermuda tomorrow. Even though weakening is forecast, there may be some very rough weather there tomorrow. Seas will calm down rapidly after the passage.

Gonzalo will be moving very rapidly soon. Bermuda will likely see effects late Thursday night into Friday. It will be near Newfoundland by Saturday night / early Sunday morning. It's too early to tell what effects Bermuda will experience as a small change in course can make a big difference.

The weather is rapidly improving across the Leewards, VI's and Puerto Rico this morning. Bermuda may see Gonzalo's effects Friday.

Hurricane Gonzalo will be moving out of the Leewards late tonight or early tomorrow. It will gradually turn more north and will possibly be a concern to Bermuda around Friday.

Hi Hurricane Expert . What is is the weather for a cruise leaving Galveston on Oct 16 and stopping in Cozumel on Oct 18 ?

Thank you so much for letting us know about the weather forecasts

High pressure will be over the Gulf on the 16th. The western Caribbean has been unsettled for a while now.... the forecast for Cozumel on the 18th shows scattered thundershowers.

Cruise critic friends.... I will continue to give updates here for Gonzalo, but will not be able to give any additional "personal" forecasts. I am getting busy forecasting for Gonzalo.