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unfathomable

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  1. Are you sailing from Piraeus (Athens)? I just received a revised cruise ticket, less than a week after the original. I am boring and I read these things! THE COVID TEST RULES HAVE CHANGED, for Piraeus or for us at least.
     
    For us, it means we've lost the cost of our pre-booked video-proctored tests and had to rush to book new in-person tests. More to the point, we could easily have missed this change and the cruise.
     
    The words: "If you arrive for embarkation without a valid negative test result, you will be denied boarding" are scary. So if you are sailing from Piraeus (Athens) please check whether this might apply to you. If I've helped, buy me a drink on board!
     
    Not impressed that this change wasn't flagged by Silversea.
  2. 1. No problem. Luxury is what you make of it. 
    2. It depends. You can always ask. 
    3. Probably not. But you may be able to download in advance and bring some things with you? There are movies on demand in your suite. 
    4.  Not really, but ask reception if this is important to you. 
    5. Maybe, depending on how full the ship is, the voyage demographics and the time of day. 
    HTH!

    • Like 1
  3. I was looking at my BA bookings today and noticed that there was a missing reservation. I checked by using “manage my booking” with the locator code for the flight. Turned out both legs, outbound and inbound, for my next SS cruise in Europe had been cancelled. Neither BA or SS had notified me. The flights were part of a SS door-to-door reservation. This is in less than two months’ time.

     

    My TA, once notified, rectified the problem and re-booked me within 15 minutes. (BA is not even answering the phone right now.) My TA is a star. My blood pressure is coming back to normal!

     

    If you have an upcoming cruise, and it includes flights, especially BA, please check that they still exist.

    • Like 1
  4. In the UK, your GP will probably offer a travel clinic appointment with a nurse, who will ask where you're going and look it up here: https://www.fitfortravel.nhs.uk/destinations/asia-east/india

     

    They'll check you've had the standard UK vaccinations, such as tetanus, and probably offer boosters for diptheria, hepatitis A and typhoid if you've not had them recently. If you're on a cruise, they may decide that you don't need cholera, rabies or hepatitis B. Some of the vaccinations take more than one step, so do this at least a few weeks before you travel.

     

    Yellow fever is complicated for India (see https://www.who.int/ith/ith-country-list-new.pdf), but it's unlikely to be needed if flying from the UK. Unlike the other things, it may cost a few £ and your GP may have to refer you to a clinic for it.

     

    Most of India is low risk for malaria: there's a map to check;https://www.fitfortravel.nhs.uk/destinations/asia-east/india/india-malaria-map

     

    HTH

    • Like 1
  5. ...RCL overpaid in a big way.... I think your enterprise value may be a little high, but only because no one knows all the details of this transaction. Not sure you can put the performance related payments in the EV as we don't know the metrics of the performance or future performance and how many years that performance metrics are required. Also, I thought I heard on the call that RCL took on 100% of net debt ($500m) and if that is the case it should not be increased 33 % to get EV. ... Very interesting.
    Good point re the debt. Fair comment on the other aspects too. 14x is an extraordinarily good deal for the seller, so somehow RCCL has convinced itself that there is nevertheless upside for RCCL.
  6. Manfredi in his dream over-extended himself and had to sell out, that is the usual result of over-confidence and "cockiness".
    Mmm. I don't think the numbers support that view. The amount of net debt is less than twice the cash flow, which isn't over-reaching unless the interest is outrageous: unlikely, assuming that the debt was secured on assets (ships).

     

    I think it is more likely that he cleverly developed and grew the higher-margin expeditions business, making Silversea a more attractive target, and then he received or negotiated an absolutely fantastic deal. 14-times earnings (EBITDA) for a private company being bought out by a public company is really excellent (8-times is more typical) and even if he doesn't get any of the performance-related shares, (a) two-thirds of the consideration is in cash, (b) the cash component is up front and © the multiple is still 10.5-times. Some offers are too good to refuse. I'm impressed by what he has done -- from a financial perspective.

  7. This will be a boring financial post. I just listened to the RCCL investor conference call recording, which is available through the RCCL investor relations website. This adds some new information, which is interesting because AFAIK it has not previously been exposed here.

     

    The deal is expected to close in the second half of 2018. There is about $500m of net debt in the [silversea] business. The multiple of normalised EBITDA [for the acquisition] was about 14x. However, this is expected to be less than 11x after taking into account the "at least" $50 million a year synergies that RCCL anticipates, after completion. Most of the synergies are expected to come from cost reductions, though they were careful to highlight areas such as insurance, office costs and credit card fees. They declined to answer two questions about whether there was an option (or puts/calls) to acquire the rest of Silversea, so that seems to mean "yes"; not surprising.

     

    We already know that the purchase price was $1 billion for 66.7%, plus performance-related (up to) 467,000 shares, today worth just over $500 million if you could sell them.

     

    Now my financial arithmetic is a bit rusty, but IIRC, Enterprise Value (EV) includes net debt, and the deal was based on a $2 billion EV. But we already have $1 billion cash, $0.5 billion paper and $0.5 billion debt. So that is $2 billion EV for 67% and that makes EV for the whole of Silversea $3 billion, based on this deal.

     

    If EBITDA was 14x a $3 billion EV, that would be about $215 million a year of cash flow. Revenue might be around $600 million, but this is based on RCCL's financials, so it is guesswork. (But it suggests revenue of about $500-$550 per guest per day if every ship were full, all year round, which may be in the right ball park.)

     

    In the context of that much cash flow, $500 million of debt doesn't look dangerously high.

     

    In summary, Silversea's owner seems to have done a brilliant deal for himself. As for the rest of us, we'll see.

  8. A Shadow cruise in October also has no formal nights indicated on My Silversea. Maybe they just haven't been scheduled yet?

     

    Curious, when do they normally schedule formal nights? I was thinking possibly on sea days, versus port intensive days?
    If there are two, typically they are the second night and the penultimate night. But this can change if the ship stays late in port on those nights.
  9. They may waive the cancellation fee if you re-book on a different cruise. It's worth asking, anyway.

     

    You made your current booking well in advance, so you got a (relatively) low fare. The fare for your replacement booking will be at the current pricing. Depending on how far ahead it is, the current pricing may be higher than when it was first offered, of course.

  10. How were the excursions on your voyage?
    I should have thought to mention excursions, but we only did one and it was excellent. The shore concierge staff on board were really good too: Spirit gets four of them, and they were helpful, efficient and sociable too.
  11. Is Atlantide open for breakfast? Or are the only choices La Terrazza and the Arts Café?
    4 choices: Atlantide (full waiter service); La T (buffet plus waiter service for eggs cooked to order and drinks); Arts Cafe (counter plus waiter service); or room service. Room service and the Arts Cafe are available early; La T opening time varies, depending on whether there are early tour departures; Atlantide has slightly shorter opening.
  12. As I make it out, if one were a foodie determined to try every dinner venue, one could not squeeze in all eight dinner venues within seven nights without having two dinners one of those nights.
    I'm probably being pedantic, but... one of the eight is Spaccanapoli (pizza)... not really a dinner venue IMO. The "true" dinner venues are Atlantide, The Grill, Indochine, La Dame, Seishin, Silver Note and La Terrazza. Phew! Seven.
  13. ...I am wondering if special order meals are available on the Spirit and also, does the menu in La Terrazza rotate every 4 days?
    We didn't try special orders, but others said that they were still available. There were no changes to the La T menu (or in Atlantide and Indochine) in 21 days, but senior officers said that the plan was to rotate menus weekly.
  14. I suppose it depends upon what you mean by "flexibility." There are certainly more options than there were on, say, Spirit before the re-do.... There is now a dedicated pizza restaurant, an Asian restaurant, etc.
    Agree. However, we think this works better for shorter, 7-10 day cruises than the longer trips that we prefer. We would have been much happier if the Atlantide, Indochine and La Terrazza had changed (say) every 5 days and if service (especially in Atlantide) had been up to the usual high standard.
  15. Unfortunately scaling up seems to have, at least initially, removed the freedom of showing up anytime for dinner.
    On this recent Spirit cruise, we did have short lines/queues for Atlantide, but only waiting to be seated. We did not have lines/queues for Indochine. YMMV.
  16. ...I wonder if the lower price points on the larger ships will woo some passengers, who are accustomed to the service levels on the Whisper, Shadow and Wind, to the (relatively) ‘value priced’ larger vessels, resulting in bad reviews (based on previous expectations) and a dilution of the brand.

     

    In business the goal is usually to maximize the ROI (return on investment) and the bean counters may have concluded that a slight lowering of the service levels and the loss of a few prior passengers will be offset by the increased numbers of new passengers (who won’t have prior experience with ultra high service levels) on the larger ships. And thus the spiral down begins....

    I thought that the goal might be to get a higher ROI on larger ships through the volume effect: one double-size ship (Spirit, Muse...) has lower running costs per passenger than two original ships (Cloud, Wind...), even if you keep the same service-staff-per-passenger ratio. For an over-simplified example, on the larger ship, you still only have one Captain, Chief Engineer etc.; fuel, a big cost, is more efficient too.

     

    I hoped that it might be possible, on the larger ships, to get very close to the luxurious level of service that we know Silversea can deliver, at the same fares per day, but with a higher ROI. That way, everybody wins: quality and value for guests; higher ROI for the owners, so that they can service their debts and stay in business, which is what we all want.

     

    I also hope that anybody in sales and marketing will make it a priority to retain past customers. Experience suggests that this is much, much easier and cheaper than winning new customers.

  17. What is "slate style?"
    Not actual slate. A material that looks like slate at first glance, but is slightly less matt in appearance less dense and smoother to the touch. I suppose that the material can go through the dishwashers. It does not seem to get hot.
  18. I’m disappointed to write my first-ever negative review of a Silversea cruise after nearly 20 years. I hope that this is just teething troubles after a huge refit, but I worry that it’s a sign of a change in emphasis away from what I seek in a luxury cruise.

     

    We experienced very few problems directly related to the refit, even though we boarded only a week after the first post-refit cruise. But we did pay full fare and overall we were frustrated that the experience fell short of Silversea’s usual high standards, especially food and service.

     

    Structural changes following the stretch (top to bottom)

     

    All or most of the furniture, inside and out, has been replaced, not just refurbished. It’s comfortable.

     

    Décor generally has changed to a greyer, more neutral palette. People who like this sort of thing (including me) will find this the sort of thing they like. The change has been made in public areas and suites, but not lobbies or bathrooms, including suite bathrooms, which retain the darker wood and chocolate marble.

     

    Tor’s Observation Library on deck 11 is pretty much the old observation lounge, plus a very limited selection of books. This is now the only library. A bar operates in the evening.

     

    On decks 9 and 10, the pool grill and the pizza area above it have taken most of the extra space on the pool deck. The pool itself has not significantly increased in size. Lots of the pool grill area is under cover, and as you move away from the pool it gets a bit dark and it starts to feel not-very-outside.

     

    The new Arts Café is a cosy indoor/outdoor venue that makes good use of a previously almost-wasted space at the back of deck 8, a better location than on Muse. There’s no actual art yet, but it’s in a good spot and the all-day snack idea is overdue. They also provide to-go coffee and there is plenty of demand for this in the early mornings. The indoor space is smaller than Muse and it gets busy when it’s too cold to sit outside.

     

    La Terrazza (deck 7) has lots of extra internal seating where the old Stars Supper Club used to be. The door has been moved up into the corridor so this extra space does feel like part of the restaurant, not an annexe. It has more of a café atmosphere than before. The tables are quite close together. La Terrazza can be a zoo in the mornings if there are many early tours.

     

    The show lounge on deck 5 does not seem to have had a major refit.

     

    Dolce Vita (the new name for the deck 5 central lobby bar) has been enlarged, and separated by a wide arch from reception and the shore concierge desk. Also, the piano has been moved close to this arch. This separation from the reception area is an improvement, but Dolce Vita still feels big and not cosy.

     

    On deck 4, Atlantide and Indochine are asymmetrical, unlike Muse, with more space for the former and less for the latter. Sensibly, this reflects actual demand. Both have bars, but we never saw them used by guests.

     

    There is a structural improvement in Atlantide, Indochine and La Terrazza: the waiter stations have been hidden behind partitions at the sides of each room, so the noise of clatter and chatter has been significantly reduced.

     

    Standard suites

     

    Here too, all the furniture, inside and out, has been replaced, not just refurbished.

     

    In a veranda suite, the dressing table at the foot of the bed has been replaced by a large mirror, so there is a clear (approx. 3 feet /1 metre) corridor to the sitting area and veranda. That’s an improvement. The desk now does double duty as the dressing table, which is OK. There’s now a stool under the desk and only one chair in the seating area, plus the sofa and the small table. The one chair could be used as a desk chair, but it’s a slightly clumsy arrangement.

     

    There are multiple electrical sockets, including USB charging points, some of them “high power”, at the desk and bedside. Power sockets will take UK, US and European plugs.

     

    The bed was comfortable; quite firm. The butler says the new mattresses don’t have a soft side and a firm side, but “we can make it softer” if it’s too firm.

     

    The muddy behind-the-mirror TVs have gone. Instead there is a conventional flat screen, maybe 40 inches, driven by an interactive (presumably networked) box. This is pretty good. The moving map display is better, but weather forecasts are hit-and-miss. There is a limited range of movies and mini box sets, plus fairly reliable live TV news.

     

    Basic always-on wi-fi is free for one device at a time per person. It is available in all guest areas. The basic wi-fi is throttled to a very low speed, acceptable for email and browsing text websites, but that’s all. Premium services are available for a charge.

     

    Food

     

    At first, I thought that Atlantide’s slower-changing, longer menu might make it easier for the kitchen to produce consistently high-quality results. I thought that a cook who specialises for a few days in a particular dish would become an expert at it, and when that menu came around again, those skills wouldn’t be lost. Also, the budget for ingredients seems to have gone up a notch.

     

    My optimism was misplaced. I was very disappointed in three respects:

    1. The menus did not change at all in three weeks. (This was also true of Indochine and La Terrazza.)

    2. Atlantide food was usually lukewarm and sometimes cold. Even when food was sent back, a replacement dish was still lukewarm and when this was cleared, uneaten, staff did not seem to notice.

    3. Service has yet to reach Silversea’s usual standard. For example, on tables for six, it routinely took several minutes for main courses to be served to all six guests; water and wine glasses were often left empty until staff could be called; side dishes were forgotten; and orders were mixed up between different people, even on an officer’s table.

     

    Indochine and La Terrazza food at dinner was significantly better than Atlantide, but both still lacked variety.

     

    I don’t have any comment on Seishin and La Dame, since we did not try them this trip. They are still windowless boxes on deck 4.

     

    We tried Silver Note, but the so-called tapas were main course portions, far too large to sample a wide range of dishes; we liked the few we had. The Arts Café has snacks that change during the day; the evening canapes were excellent.

     

    We ate at The Grill on the pool deck several times at lunch and dinner. Lunch was sandwiches, burgers, salads etc and it’s OK. Dinner was better; we asked the chef to cook for us (no hot rocks for us) and it was all as requested. We had lunch at Spaccanapoli once, above the pool deck: they do a short list of pizzas, it’s good pizza, but it’s only pizza.

     

    Room service has been reduced to the room service menu only, almost unchanged in 15-plus years. Although this is extensive, course-by-course dining from the restaurant menu is no longer available. In effect, this means one less dining venue.

     

    Service

     

    Although service in Indochine and La Terrazza was better than Atlantide, service generally was no better than OK, with frequent lapses. The Arts Café was better than other venues; the pool deck was a bit worse. There are a few individual stars among the crew, but far fewer familiar faces than usual. The crew are uniformly proud of the changes and want to show them off. They are mainly hardworking, but inexperienced.

     

    The senior management are all experienced and capable and working very hard to bring standards up to the usual level. In contrast, most junior staff seem to be new or nearly-new and it will probably take a couple of years to drag the standard back up. Being a competent, experienced waiter (etc) and being a competent, experienced Silversea waiter (etc) are two different things.

     

    Name recognition remained patchy after three weeks on board. Maybe 500+ guests’ names are beyond the number that normal mortals can be expected to remember. Worse, two or three service staff had difficulty understanding English. That was a first, in my experience.

     

    More worryingly, this is how it may stay for the next few years: a new big ship every two years means hundreds of new staff, even if you ignore churn. It takes time to assimilate so many new people into the culture. Perhaps the need for large numbers of new staff means that recruitment standards have dipped?

     

    Butler and housekeeper service was keen, but again inexperienced. For example, the butler did not seem to know how to use a corkscrew to open a wine bottle.

     

    Last time we were on Spirit, it had a five-piece band. It is now a trio. There’s also a resident pianist, a guitar-vocalist (one great, one not so great) and a jazz duo in Silver Note, plus the six “Voices of Silversea” who sing to recorded backing tracks. I have heard this described, unkindly, as professional karaoke!

     

    I think we have about 70-100 fewer guests than full capacity, despite the advertised waitlist, so service may get worse if the ship is really full.

     

    Conclusion

     

    It sounds like there are going to be three Silversea fleets from now on: Expedition (Cloud, Galapagos, Explorer and Discoverer/Discoverer’s replacement, and maybe Wind at some point in the future); Muse-like (Muse, Spirit, Moon, Dawn…); and Classic (Whisper, Shadow and Wind, at least until/unless it is converted to an expedition vessel). Officers say that no decision has been made about converting Wind, but if Cloud cruises sell out at much higher fares, the economics may be imperative.

     

    We have a fair few future cruises booked, all of them on Whisper, Shadow and Wind. We are not expedition people. So on this latest cruise’s showing, we are now restricted to cruises on just three ships, and maybe two in future. Not a happy thought.

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