ltlslick1

In October / November 2024, Adventure does a transatlantic to Europe before coming back 20 days later. Haven’t seen anything announced but presumably she’ll go to dry dock at that time? Anyone onboard recently hearing any news about this?

Seems several positions have been posted to linkedin recently with the job location being Labadee. Could be something, could be nothing. 

I’ll be the first to say I’d like to see the company succeed, but I don’t see how the past several days on news helps it’s position in any material aspect. 

My flights to Barcelona in September have already been canceled. While seeing improvement is certainly positive, I’m not sure how I am going to be able to cruise unless I row a boat across the pond. 

2 minutes ago, nelblu said:

Here's the primary reason (Gilead Science).  Stock over $6.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-april-29-2020-221407672.html

I saw the Gilead announcement. That seemed far from promising to me. Central banker comments seem to be dragging market up in general, but I don’t see how that benefits travel stocks. Who knows. 

29 minutes ago, nelblu said:

Stock popped almost $5.

I don’t get it. What does the market know that I don’t?

9 hours ago, npcl said:

To look at how the market looks at companies and their odds of default I tend to look at the bond market.  

 

For Royal Caribbean

 

11/28/20  2.65% bonds   now trading at 16.058% YTM

11/15/22  5.25% bonds  now trading at 21.705% YTM

3/15/2028  3.7% bonds now trading at 11.517% YTM

 

For Carnival

 

10/15/20  3.95% bonds now trading at 15.901% YTM

10/01/23  7.2%  bonds now trading at 10.779%  YTM

 

These are certainly at Junk bond levels.  The only other companies whose bonds are trading near Royal's 11/15/22 value are small oil companies that are certainly at risk.

 

I would say that Royal is certainly at risk and will need to find some way to raise money in the near future, if they can.

 

CCL seems to have stabilized at some degree with their recent, very expensive, money raise.

What’s with yield on 2022 vs 2028. Call option on 2028? Market liquidity issues? Yield to worst tell different story? 2028 in more senior position?

3 hours ago, cruisn4bruisn said:

On Majesty at the moment. Ship seems 100%. We missed Key West on Monday because of high winds. Came back and stopped today. If we had any issues I’m sure that wouldn’t have happened. Nobody seems overly concerned. Lots of sanitizing stations around the ship. All we can do. Hopefully by Saturday we will still be symptom free. 

Good to hear.  Enjoy and stay safe!

Just now, fred30 said:

It's definitely not a straight line to bankruptcy.    Keeping the company whole would be the best way for the creditors to get their money back.  After all if gets bad enough for bankruptcy the value of the assets would be extremely low as the whole industry will be in the same condition.

 

The way things are going we may start seeing cruise cancellations and that would mean no revenue from those cruises until things start improving.    Going with the FCC was a smart move.  It allows them to keep the cash now.

Agree, the real question is will the FCC be redeemed at prime pricing or will it be redeemed at some sort of discounted level (if demand does not spring back). 

Is it time to discuss bailout already? The next 4 months of cruise capacity was likely pretty well booked before the virus really started to ramp up. Offering FCC has allowed the company to push demand forward into the summer season. No doubt they will be taking a serious haircut in the meantime until things improve but between the expenditures they can cut and cash draw downs I would think they could float themselves for a while. Despite not having mountains of cash on hand, I’d suspect lenders would be more likely to amend loan terms versus seek to take control of collateral. That would save short term cash as well. Also, while I’m sure they are committed to oil at certain prices via hedge agreements, there still should be some tangible benefit from lower petroleum prices. Bottom line, I don’t think it’s a straight line to bankruptcy. 

1 minute ago, Ourusualbeach said:

far from empty but it will feel like its empty.

It will feel different for sure. Perhaps a welcomed change for those that have opined that ships are too crowded to begin with. Not suggesting this a reason to jump on a sailing right now but will be curious to hear feedback from those who experience it. 
 

1 minute ago, Biker19 said:

Anthem was at 110% last week.

Maybe doom and gloom had not yet taken full effect? Have to think ship occupancy will be a lot more volatile on a go forward basis. 

17 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

It will be around 50% for the Anthem departing this Sunday

Interesting. While 50% is horrible from a profitability standpoint, it’s actually still a pretty high number. That’s fair from sailing empty. 

Like the title says, trying to gauge if people are still cruising.  I read the headlines about the cancellations, and I’m sure there is a lot of them, but how many are pushing through and making the trip?

Here’s one opinion of it:https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/news/3550124-nomura-sees-cruise-line-recovery-in-2021

Stock will continue to door poorly as virus information is released. Where it bottoms is anyone’s guess. I am averaging in. Long term this becomes a very profitable company again in my eyes. 

Have done both lines, both offer a similar product.  More recently have been more loyal to Royal Caribbean, generally speaking I think the ships have slightly more to offer.  Personal preference but I slightly miss the night time activity of Carnival, it always seemed to have a bit more of a night owl crowd.  Don't think you can go wrong either way.  Some of Carnival's newer ships certainly look worth investigating.

Freedom of the Seas would likely be a better transition, it has more the of the Royal Caribbean features that are advertised.  The ABC islands is a nice itinerary.  Grenada is a neat stop, but not sure how much there is for kids to do there.  Dominica is a skip in my book.  The port is in a run down area, but full disclosure - I didn't do any excursions.  Good luck with you decision.  I am booked on Freedom myself and looking forward to the newly refurbished ship.

Nice report.  Glad to see the ship upgrades are a welcomed addition.

As a cruiser in his 20s I have to say it really is disappointing that Royal is removing the night clubs. We always took advantage of these spaces and danced into the early morning hours. The spots that have replaced these venues just don't feel the same.

Nice review, thanks for posting.

Pretty interesting read. I was on the December 31st majesty sailing - I purchased the Premium package on board and it was 55 a day plus gratuities - the final charge for the 4 day sailing was 259.60 per person. Is it possible that rates go up for holiday sailings?

-Why do you prefer Royal Caribbean over other cruise lines?

Royal Caribbean has arguably the most innovative ships in the industry which is a huge plus. A lot of it also falls into demographics - age groups in particular vary from young to old depending on the ship and the itinerary - I am a younger cruiser and enjoy doing the 7 or less night cruises which usually gets a younger crowd. Additionally, its not the cheapest option out there and I think the passengers reflect a crowd who don't always consume the lowest cost product - its about quality and consistent experiences.

-What keeps you coming back?

The ships - flowriders, ice rinks, big screens by the pool - I love it all.

-Why do you like cruises in general?

I love to be on the water and the idea of being in a 4 star resort and waking up in a new location everyday without even feeling like I traveled is an amazing feeling. Cruises offer a good value in my opinion - lodging, food, and entertainment in one fair price.

-When it comes to vacationing, why do you pick cruises over other options?

I am not fond of staying in one spot for too long, which is why I am not big on all inclusive resorts. A lot of cruisers will argue that there is not enough public space on cruise ships - I have mixed feelings on this, on one hand I don't like to feel cramped but to be honest I seldom get that feeling on a ship. Being in close quarters sort of forces you to interact with new faces which I like, not all do, but I do.

-What have your experiences been like?

Knock on wood I have had mostly great weather and great service while cruising in the Caribbean. My expectations are pretty low on the service side as I don't mind doing things myself, however I have found that if I am courteous to the crew they are more than happy to assist me. Nothing beats sipping a cold adult beverage and watching the turquoise blue water pass you by.

Obviously as a publicly traded company, Royal releases company earnings quarterly. I like to listen in just to get an idea of how the company is operating and if we cruisers should expect to see any changes. Below I thought I'd share a few bullet points from the earnings call:

Geographic Performamce

• A strong North American consumer has provided a solid base for bookings
  
• Momentum in the Caribbean is going strong and new buildings continue to perform exceptionally well on every measure.Economic struggles in Latin America are having a profound effect on the Pullmantur brand
  

• Latin American strategy for Pullmantur hit a brick wall when the economies of key local markets all but collapsed.
  
  
• Pullmantur Empress will transition back to the Royal Caribbean International fleet in early 2016 and after an extensive dry dock will begin sailing as the Empress of the Seas in the spring of 2016.

  
  

• China is the fastest growing market
  
• Quantum and Legend will continue to service that market
  
  
• Asia Pacific region has and will continue to be yield accretive for the brand overall.

  
  

Pricing

• In 2016, there is a higher percentage booked and at higher prices than ever before in history.
  
• Price integrity policy
  
• Policy is designed to give guests and travel partners more comfort that when they book a cruise.
  
  
• RCL won’t be dropping the price of that same cruise during the last few days before the ship sails.
  
  
• Depending on the itinerary, RCL has internally banned any new discounts in the U.S. and the Canada in the last 10, 20, 30 or 40 days before the cruise starts.
  
  
• The program has been in place for seven months or so, and RCL has not granted a single exception to the policy. It has cost RCL a bit and is costing a bit this year in revenue, and some cabins have gone empty which could have been filled with dramatic last minute deals, but RCL stood firm and has made zero exceptions.
  
  
• Expect it will cost the company a bit more in 2016

  
  

Overall Performance

• The out performance was driven by strong pricing for the Caribbean and Europe as well as strong on-board revenue on Asia itineraries.
  
• On board revenues did not disappoint. RCL achieved 10% growth year-over-year driven by improvements in beverage, retail sales and demand for Boom, the fastest internet at sea.
  
• The Caribbean will remain the biggest product with about 43% of total capacity.
  
• Overall, European itineraries will represent about 21% of total capacity which is similar to this year.
  
• The most significant increase will once again occur in the Asia Pacific region. Capacity will be up more than 30% year-over-year due in part to the addition of Ovation of the Seas in Tianjin and the year round presence of Quantum of the Seas in Shanghai.
  

My Comments:

I think it will be really interesting to see a small ship return to the fleet. The Empress will certainly be different than any other ship in the brand (see separate threads in the forum for more discussion on that). I was sort of surprised to see how strong the pricing environment is in the Caribbean. It has been my sense that there has been a ton of supply coming online from all the major cruise companies - the demand obviously has to be very strong from the North American consumer. There was a ton of conversation on the earnings call regarding China - its a huge market folks, expect to loose more ships to Asia in the future would be my guess. As it relates to pricing and this is key as we all want to get the best pricing on our sailings. It seems as though the no discounting idea has worked well so far. By the companies own admission, they have had to let some cabins go unfilled. It will be really interesting to see if that continues. As countless users have said, booking early will be the best strategy. Curious to hear others thoughts.

Looks like that cabin is a category K and it looks as though all those cabins have been sold but it never hurts to call.

Not surprised to see a lot of the responses, I prefer Royal over celebrity as well (I'm 27 to provide some context). I've sailed constellation within the last year and a Royal freedom class ship - not the same as Navigator I know but I would say pretty comparable in features/amenities. I'll start by saying that the constellation is a very nice ship. No you will not have a promenade or flowrider or big screen next to the pool - all things I enjoy I might add. Constellation does offer an indoor pool (in case of poor weather), some very good specialty restaurants, and some good activities. The food and theater shows are pretty similar between Royal and X - its a toss up on a cruise by cruise basis. For those that think there isn't a lot of young people on a celebrity spring break cruise - I urge you to read the reviews from celebrity constellation in march 14'. Half of the ship (literally) turned out to be college aged. This is not to say they flocked to a celebrity ship but I think any cruise line that has a ship doing shorter itineraries in march is very susceptible to spring break crowds. I won't reference any specific TAs but the price for an oceanview for a 5 day march cruise was 520pp which included a beverage package and 300 on board credit. I believe the offer is still out there but I could be wrong. It was just hard to say no to that price when Royal would have been a little less than double.