Avoiding the storm?

[kegger]

Looking from a professional meteorology point of view, there was no way to avoid this one.

 

This storm had been churning up the seas for a good portion of last week. At the time the Dawn was leaving the Bahamas and heading toward NYC, there were 30-35 kt head winds, and "average" wave heights of 18-24 feet.

 

See the image below...

 

I'm not sure what thresholds each cruise line uses for stormy seas....that's where NCL comes in....but if it were me, I would have diverted to Florida for one more day.

[TVMet]

Hey Kegger...

 

Are you a met? I am, usually hang out on the CCL board, but have been visiting NCL to check up on the weekend incident.

 

I'm in Tampa.

 

I usually side with the cruise lines on these weather issues, but this one, I don't know, it certainly can't be said this was an "unexpected" event. That low was almost getting a tropical look, although water temperatures are certainly too cool. It might have had a warming core. Accu-wx is complaining about the need for a recon. Hard to take them too seriously since they complain about the "governement" all the time. But, they may have a point.

 

I was on the Carnival Miracle the day after Christmas when we got 82 kt. winds in Tampa Bay. Those ships can certainly take a lot.

[kegger]

I am a met too, yes...I live in the DC area.

 

Yeah...I'd like to find out who NCL's weather provider is. Fleet Weather is one possibility or perhaps they have their own Mets, dunno. That low sat off the coast just about all week. Actually, I was joking earlier in the week that I was surprised the Natl Hurricane Center hadn't issued advisories for Sub-tropical Storm "Arlene" for it....

[richtersl]

Weren't there two "lows" actually involved? One rotating off the mid-Atlantic coast with the other rotating off the Georgia-South Carolina coast?

 

There really was no way around this one. :o

[kegger]

 

Looks like I exceeded my bandwidth on geocities site. Here are the original links....

[kegger]

 

Waves averaged 18-24 feet, on top of the fact that there was a 30-40 kt head wind.

[kegger]

A strong upper level low (or trough) was along the Eastern Seabord, that combined with surface low pressure which had been nearly stationary off of the Carolina's most of the late half of last week. Not to mention a very strong wind gradient with high pressure over the Northeast...those sea's were churned up pretty good and I personally deny the fact that this was one of those storms that was unpredictable. It was very predictable, maybe not the 70+ ft wave....but the very rough seas should have been easily expected.

[NJcruiser21]

kegger,

 

 

thank you for this! extremely interesting. is it me or from looking at the map, they couldn't have avoided it?

[kegger]

Not unless they stayed in the Bahamas, or gone to Florida...no way.

[seahorse]

Not unless they stayed in the Bahamas, or gone to Florida...no way.

 

Very interesting, thank you. I am a "weather buff". Do you know how long after the Dawn went through the storm it dissipated? (did that make sense?)

[kegger]

Some of the buoy reports I was seeing from early Sunday morning still were showing some 20 ft waves. But they were coming down through the day on Sunday...

[seahorse]

Some of the buoy reports I was seeing from early Sunday morning still were showing some 20 ft waves. But they were coming down through the day on Sunday...

 

Thanks,

 

So this happened on Fri. Sat. still would have been rough, no? So do think the decision was made based on the fact that the storm was going to stay awhile? ANnnnnnnd it could have stayed much longer and intensified?

[Dolphins]

I don't think holding the ship in Florida another day was practical or even considered. Despite the rough seas, the ship would have made New York on Sunday, perhaps late, had it not been for the totally unpredictable rogue wave. When you have 2,500 passengers with plans to debark on Sunday and another 2,500 embarking on Sunday, you cannot inconvenience 5,000 passengers because of rough seas. A 95,000 ton cruise ship should easily handle all but the most unusual rough seas. Dawn has been doing these New York cruises for 2 1/2 years without major incident.

[seahorse]

I don't think holding the ship in Florida another day was practical or even considered. Despite the rough seas, the ship would have made New York on Sunday, perhaps late, had it not been for the totally unpredictable rogue wave. When you have 2,500 passengers with plans to debark on Sunday and another 2,500 embarking on Sunday, you cannot inconvenience 5,000 passengers because of rough seas. A 95,000 ton cruise ship should easily handle all but the most unusual rough seas. Dawn has been doing these New York cruises for 2 1/2 years without major incident.

 

This is exactly what I am trying to determine. BUT, and this is a big BUT, if the captain thought there was any danger he would inconvenience 5,000 pax.

[kegger]

Yeah, I do not disagree that they did what they had to do. But this was more than just a gale and just one wave, almost tropical depression like conditions....they divert and go around those, why not this one?

[seahorse]

Yeah, I do not disagree that they did what they had to do. But this was more than just a gale and just one wave, almost tropical depression like conditions....they divert and go around those, why not this one?

 

I am confused:confused: I thought you said they couldn`t go around it.

[cruisin0504]

Is there a chart that us non-mets can see what the current wave heights are? We are traveling up the coast to NY in 2 weeks.

[kegger]

Thats why I stand by the fact they could have held back their departure, because they couldn't just go around this one. If they went to the east and around, it would have caught up to them. If anything, a closer trip to the coast and a 12 hour delay would have been their only better option...

But like was said, they have a time schedule. I bet if it was earlier in the week, they would have had no problem delaying the trip and or cutting out one of the port stops...

[kegger]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/rmd.shtml

[seahorse]

Thats why I stand by the fact they could have held back their departure, because they couldn't just go around this one. If they went to the east and around, it would have caught up to them. If anything, a closer trip to the coast and a 12 hour delay would have been their only better option...

But like was said, they have a time schedule. I bet if it was earlier in the week, they would have had no problem delaying the trip and or cutting out one of the port stops...

 

When it comes to cruise decisions we are just pundits. I agree that the timing was not the best on all accounts. Decisions have to be made on experience and intelligence. I know I wouldn`t like to be the one to make them:eek:

 

Thank you for your input:)

[seahorse]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/rmd.shtml

 

This is one kool site:D It is in my favorites.

[kegger]

Agreed, its easy to sit back and claim we know all the answers now...and we do not know what was discussed by NCL or anyone making the decisions for this ship on Friday and Saturday.

[kegger]

Check this out...

 

Look at how the wave heights jumped 10 feet+ in a matter of 3 hours by Friday evening. The waves (according to this buoy) stayed near 30 feet for a good 12 hours before calming down again by Sunday evening.

[seahorse]

Check this out...

 

Look at how the wave heights jumped 10 feet+ in a matter of 3 hours by Friday evening. The waves (according to this buoy) stayed near 30 feet for a good 12 hours before calming down again by Sunday evening.

 

Wow:eek:

 

30' for 12 hrs. That`s a BIG LLOoooooooooog storm.

[Maraprince]

kegger,

 

Not to discount anything you said, but I believe the main reason why the N. Dawn was on such a tight (and earlier than usual) schedule to return to NY was that a new commerical was to be filmed prior to the ship leaving on the next voyage. As it was said, had it been earlier in the cruise either a port would have been missed or the Dawn would have stayed put in one of the ports until most of the weather left the area. This happened many years ago to me on the Seaward when a hurricane hit the Miami area. We were in Mexico enjoying the sunshine while NCL headquarters had no idea where we were! The Capt. went on ahead in one of the lifeboats to check on the sea conditions. Our ship was in a sheltered port away from the open sea. Instead of going on to the next port, NCL chartered buses and we stayed in that port using it as our base. However, the last day of the cruise we had to leave for the return trip to Miami. If we had arrived one day earlier, the airport was closed due to the storm. We hid the bad weather on our way back up to Miami and arrived after the brunt of the storm had left Miami.

 

 

Maraprince