T/S Chantal. advisory

[FIRELT5]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/080301.shtml

[FIRELT5]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/115019.shtml?3-daynl

[Hurricane Expert]

Tropical cyclones that move fast in the deep tropics generally have a hard time strengthening. That is one reason the NHC forecast keeps Chantal as a tropical storm through it's life cycle. The other reason is that the current track takes it over mountainous terrain in a few days over Hispaniola.

[keystonemama]

Local advisory out of Jax and George Winterling forcast, mostly rain and rip currents will be the issue.

It appears that CHANTAL WILL NOT GROW INTO A HURRICANE. Most tropical storms moving in the tropics at this pace do no gather enough angular momentum to reach that intensity. In addition, the track should cause it to encounter some mountainous land areas of the Caribbean islands to cause it to weaken. At this time, heavy rains on the windward side of mountains may be the greatest impact of this storm.

More details can be described as the storm progresses westward and possibly turns to a more northerly course by the weekend.

[havaml]

Thank you for your insights... From what you observe, and your experience, when would you expect an announcement from the cruise lines of any departure conflicts, or Port changes? I'm traveling on a 3 day on RCCL out of Port Cnaveral to the Nassau, this Friday...

[FIRELT5]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=PRZ001&warncounty=PRC127&firewxzone=PRZ016&local_place1=&product1=Tropical+Storm+Watch#.UdsA3Mu9KSM

[FIRELT5]

Thank you for your insights... From what you observe, and your experience, when would you expect an announcement from the cruise lines of any departure conflicts, or Port changes? I'm traveling on a 3 day on RCCL out of Port Cnaveral to the Nassau, this Friday...

 

 

RCCL will have an announcement on there homepage if warranted.

 

http://www.royalcaribbean.com/home.do

[FIRELT5]

Tropical cyclones that move fast in the deep tropics generally have a hard time strengthening. That is one reason the NHC forecast keeps Chantal as a tropical storm through it's life cycle. The other reason is that the current track takes it over mountainous terrain in a few days over Hispaniola.

 

Once Chantal crosses Hispaniola and enters the Bahamas late this week, the trough of low pressure pulling the storm to the northwest is expected to lift out. It is unclear at this point whether or not this trough will be strong enough to pull Chantal out to sea, or whether the storm might be forced back to the northwest into the U.S. East Coast by high pressure building in.

 

What are you thoughts Rich ????

[Hurricane Expert]

Chantal will be fighting wind shear and may cross Hispaniola. I agree with NHC's forecast at being cautious in strengthening it too much. Forecast models are actually more bullish on development with a different system several days from now. I've cruised through tropical storms before and had no concerns.

[CruisingGatorGirl]

We cruise the 18th out of Port Canaveral. I know the storm should be gone by then, but do you think the sea will still be churned up and rough? I am just worried about sea sickness. We are going on an older ship (Sensation). Want to prepare :)

[FIRELT5]

We cruise the 18th out of Port Canaveral. I know the storm should be gone by then, but do you think the sea will still be churned up and rough? I am just worried about sea sickness. We are going on an older ship (Sensation). Want to prepare :)

 

We may have another cyclone following Chantel. Unfortunately we may be in for an active period.

[keystonemama]

Chantal going to bring some waves, surf's up!

[FIRELT5]

http://www.seatrade-insider.com/news/news-headlines/carnival-tweaks-two-itineraries-due-to-tropical-storm-chantal.html?nspPage=1

[redwing_al]

we leave Port Canaveral on July 11 with destinations of Nassau and Half Moon Cay. With TC Chantal in our midst, I'm just looking for some idea as to what to expect Friday and Saturday when we're expected to see these ports?

 

Also, what might be the path the captain chooses to avoid the stormy seas?

 

The last Cruise we were on was this in Cozumel. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/MMCZ/2010/1/9/DailyHistory.html The ship, heading back to Miami was VERY turbulent. The pools were all emptied, not many people went to dinner and it was just a horrible trip.

 

What would someone with an educated guess say our experience is going to be this time? Is there a less turbulent path to and fro the islands?

 

I'm really concerned.. Not so much for me, but for my wife and 3 girls. I was hoping to give them a great trip. IF it's anything like the last, we're in trouble.

 

Should I be scared or am I just being a worry wart?

[FIRELT5]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml

[FIRELT5]

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/viewer.shtml?-multi_1-NW_atlantic-

[FIRELT5]

we leave Port Canaveral on July 11 with destinations of Nassau and Half Moon Cay. With TC Chantal in our midst, I'm just looking for some idea as to what to expect Friday and Saturday when we're expected to see these ports?

 

Also, what might be the path the captain chooses to avoid the stormy seas?

 

The last Cruise we were on was this in Cozumel. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/MMCZ/2010/1/9/DailyHistory.html The ship, heading back to Miami was VERY turbulent. The pools were all emptied, not many people went to dinner and it was just a horrible trip.

 

What would someone with an educated guess say our experience is going to be this time? Is there a less turbulent path to and fro the islands?

 

I'm really concerned.. Not so much for me, but for my wife and 3 girls. I was hoping to give them a great trip. IF it's anything like the last, we're in trouble.

 

Should I be scared or am I just being a worry wart?

 

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?map.x=198&map.y=97&site=mlb&zmx=1&zmy=1#.Udx_Tsu9KSM

[FIRELT5]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/092353.shtml

[RenfrewSue]

we leave Port Canaveral on July 11 with destinations of Nassau and Half Moon Cay. With TC Chantal in our midst, I'm just looking for some idea as to what to expect Friday and Saturday when we're expected to see these ports?

 

Also, what might be the path the captain chooses to avoid the stormy seas?

 

The last Cruise we were on was this in Cozumel. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/MMCZ/2010/1/9/DailyHistory.html The ship, heading back to Miami was VERY turbulent. The pools were all emptied, not many people went to dinner and it was just a horrible trip.

 

What would someone with an educated guess say our experience is going to be this time? Is there a less turbulent path to and fro the islands?

 

I'm really concerned.. Not so much for me, but for my wife and 3 girls. I was hoping to give them a great trip. IF it's anything like the last, we're in trouble.

 

Should I be scared or am I just being a worry wart?

Why would you cruise in hurricane season when you've already had one bad experience?

The heat and humidity of summer in the tropics would finish me off!

[redwing_al]

if you must know, children in school, wife teaches. Plus, most of the time it's not raining, right? I've been on other cruises, enjoyed them all.

 

One bad experience doesn't' spoil the batch. I'm just seeking meteorologist advice and input on the thread that provides meteorologist advice and input and hoping that disruptions are inconveniences and not sickening.

[keystonemama]

 

The good news is that:

1. Chantal is not expected to become a hurricane.

2. If it remains in the Atlantic, Jacksonville will be on its weaker side.

3. If it moves across the Florida peninsula, it should not intensify or could weaken or dissipate around Sunday.

[Hurricane Expert]

The weaker Chantal stays, the farther west it will move. I agree with NHC that it deteriorated into a tropical wave last night. It is now making a comeback and may still be a minimal tropical storm. A recon is on its way so we'll know for sure soon.

[Hurricane Expert]

So far the hurricane hunter isn't finding much. Chantal looks pretty weak. If it has deteriorated into a wave, NHC's forecast track will be way off. The recon should be complete during the next hour.

[keystonemama]

FORGET THE UNCERTAINTY – PROBABLY ONLY A RAIN EVENT FOR US!

 

Published July 10, 2013 Uncategorized Leave a Comment

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/145859.shtml?5-daynl#contents

A hostile environment of wind shear, encounters with mountains and a rapid forward motion appears to make for the demise of CHANTAL by the time it reaches Florida. Heaviest rains should be just off Florida’s Gold Coast (southeast Florida) with mainly less than 2 inches of rain for central and