TD #16 (Ophelia)

[HeatherInFlorida]

............... :D I haven't been carded since I was 15! :)

 

I was just carded the other day ......... I was trying to get into the movies with the "senior" discount:D .

[vicocala]

Bulletin

Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 39a

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

8 Pm Edt Thu Sep 15 2005

 

...ophelia Weakens To A Tropical Storm While Moving Erratically

Eastward...

 

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect From Cape Lookout North

Carolina Northward To Cape Charles Light Virginia...including The

Pamlico And Albemarle Sounds...and The Chesapeake Bay South Of New

Point Comfort.

 

A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are

Expected In The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.

 

A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For Southeastern Massachusetts

From Woods Hole Northward To Cape Cod And Plymouth...including

Martha's Vineyard And Nantucket Islands.

 

A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are

Possible Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

 

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible

Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued

By Your Local Weather Office.

 

At 8 Pm Edt...0000z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Ophelia Was

Located Near Latitude 34.6 North... Longitude 75.1 West Or About 45

Miles South-southeast Of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

 

Ophelia Has Been Moving Erratically Toward The East Near 5 Mph...and

An East-northeastward To Northeastward Motion Is Expected Over The

Next 24 Hours. However Since Steering Currents Are Weak...some

Erratic Motion May Occur Tonight And Friday.

 

Reports From An Air Force Hurricane Hunter Plane And Wsr-88d Doppler

Radar Indicate That The Maximum Sustained Winds Have Decreased To

Near 70 Mph...with Higher Gusts. Some Additional Weakening Is

Possible During The Next 24 Hours.

 

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 140 Miles From The

Center.

 

The Minimum Central Pressure Recently Reported By Reconnaissance

Aircraft Was 987 Mb...29.15 Inches.

 

Maximum Coastal Storm Surge Flooding Of 2 To 4 Feet Above Normal

Tide Levels...along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...can

Be Expected In Areas Of Onshore Winds. A Storm Surge Of 6 To 8

Feet Is Possible At The Heads Of Bays And Rivers.

 

Ophelia May Produce Additional Rainfall Accumulations Of 2 Inches

Over Portions Of North Carolina Outer Banks During The Next 24

Hours.

 

Repeating The 8 Pm Edt Position...34.6 N... 75.1 W. Movement

Toward...east Near 5 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds... 70 Mph.

Minimum Central Pressure... 987 Mb.

 

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At

11 Pm Edt.

 

Forecaster Pasch

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 40

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Pm Edt Thu Sep 15 2005

 

The Radar And Satellite Presentations Of Ophelia Continue To

Deteriorate...with Minimal Convection Over The Western Semicircle

Of The System. Highest 850 Mb Flight-level Winds From The Air

Force Hurricane Hunters Was 74 Kt Several Hours Ago. Current

Intensity Is Set At 60 Kt. Since The Cyclone Will Not Be Moving

Over Significantly Cooler Waters Until About 36 Hours...only Slow

Weakening Is Forecast During The Next Day Or So. After Ophelia

Passes 40n Latitude...sea Surface Temperatures Decrease

Rapidly...and Ophelia Should Start Its Transition Into A Vigorous

Extratropical Cyclone As It Begins To Interact With A Baroclinic

Zone Near New England. This Is More Or Less Consistent With The

Diagnosis Of The Gfs Output On The Fsu Cyclone Phase Analysis Web

Page...which Shows The System Becoming Extratropical By 72 Hours.

It Is Not Possible To Be Very Precise As To How Tropical The Cyclone

Will Be When It Passes Closest To Southeastern New England.

 

The Motion Has Been Erratic Over The Past 6 Hours Or So...but Mostly

Eastward...or Even East-southeastward. Current Motion Estimate Is

An Uncertain 100/4. A 500 Mb Shortwave Trough Currently Moving

Into Illinois Is Expected To Continue Moving Eastward And Cause

Ophelia To Turn Toward The Northeast Or North-northeast With A

Gradual Increase In Forward Speed Within A Day Or Two. There Are

Differences Among The Various Track Models As To How Close Ophelia

Will Come To Southeastern Massachusetts. The Nogaps Takes The

Center Near Cape Cod...the Gfdl Just A Bit Farther East...and The

Gfs Control And Gfs Ensemble Mean Are Farther Offshore. Out Of

Respect For The Gfdl...the Nhc Track Is Adjusted Only Slightly To

The Left.

 

Based On The Latest Forecast...the Tropical Storm Watch For

Southeastern New England Has Been Extended A Little Farther

Westward In This Advisory Package.

 

Forecaster Pasch

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 16/0300z 34.5n 74.8w 60 Kt

12hr Vt 16/1200z 35.5n 74.5w 60 Kt

24hr Vt 17/0000z 37.2n 73.0w 55 Kt

36hr Vt 17/1200z 40.0n 70.4w 55 Kt...becoming Extratropical

48hr Vt 18/0000z 43.0n 67.0w 50 Kt...extratropical

72hr Vt 19/0000z 48.0n 55.0w 50 Kt...inland...extratropical

96hr Vt 20/0000z 51.0n 41.0w 45 Kt...extratropical

120hr Vt 21/0000z 54.0n 24.0w 45 Kt...extratropical

 

 

$$

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 42

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Am Edt Fri Sep 16 2005

 

Ophelia Is Presenting A Sheared Appearance In Satellite Imagery This

Morning...with The Deep Convection Mainly In The Northeastern

Quadrant. Radar Position Fixes From Coastal Wsr-88ds Are East Of

Aircraft Reconnaissance Positions...suggesting The Vortex Is

Tilted. The Last Pressure Measured By The Aircraft Was 996

Mb...along With 850 Mb Flight-level Winds Of 61 Kt. The Initial

Intensity Is Decreased To 50 Kt Based On This.

 

The Initial Motion Is 025/7. Ophelia Is Becoming Embedded In The

Westerlies...and As A High Pressure System To The East Breaks Down

The Storm Should Turn Northeastward And Accelerate. This Should Be

Followed After 72 Hr By A More Eastward Motion At High Latitude.

The Track Guidance Is Tightly Clustered Through 48 Hr...and The New

Forecast Track Is Down The Middle Of The Guidance. The New Track

Is A Little To The Left Of The Old Track...which Requires A

Tropical Storm Warning For Portions Of New England At This Time.

 

Little Change In Strength Is Expected During The Next 24 Hr As

Ophelia Remains Over Relatively Warm Water. After 24 Hr...colder

Water...increasing Shear...and The Onset Of Extratropical

Transition Should Cause Weakening. Ophelia Is Expected To Lose

Tropical Characteristics In 36-48 Hr.

 

Forecaster Beven

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 16/1500z 35.7n 74.4w 50 Kt

12hr Vt 17/0000z 37.1n 73.1w 50 Kt

24hr Vt 17/1200z 39.8n 70.6w 50 Kt

36hr Vt 18/0000z 42.8n 66.7w 45 Kt...becoming Extratropical

48hr Vt 18/1200z 46.0n 60.8w 45 Kt...inland Extratropical

72hr Vt 19/1200z 50.0n 47.0w 45 Kt...extratropical

96hr Vt 20/1200z 53.0n 32.0w 40 Kt...extratropical

120hr Vt 21/1200z 53.0n 19.0w 40 Kt...extratropical

 

 

$$

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 43

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

5 Pm Edt Fri Sep 16 2005

 

Ophelia Has Somewhat Re-organized During The Day...with The

Convection Making Occasional Attempts To Wrap Around The West Side

Of The Low-level Center. Noaa And Air Force Reserve Hurricane

Hunter Aircraft Indicate The Central Pressure Has Fallen To 993 Mb.

The Noaa Plane Measured 73 Kt At 700 Mb...and A 59 Kt Surface Wind

Off The Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer. However...the

Maximum Wind Observed Thus Far By The Air Force Aircraft At 59 Mb

Is 59 Kt. There Is Also A Report Of 74 Kt At 2500 Ft From The

First-ever Successful Aerosonde Flight Into The Core Of A Tropical

Cyclone. Based On All This Data...the Initial Intensity Is

Increased To 55 Kt.

 

Ophelia Has Turned Right And Accelerated With An Initial Motion Of

040/11. The Storm Is Becoming Embedded In The Westerlies...and As

A High Pressure System To The East Breaks Down The Storm Should

Turn Northeastward And Accelerate. This Should Be Followed After

72 Hr By A More Eastward Motion At High Latitude. The Track

Guidance Is Tightly Clustered Through 48 Hr...and The New Forecast

Track Is Down The Middle Of The Guidance. The New Track Is Again A

Little To The Left Of The Old Track...particularly After 24 Hr.

 

While Little Change In Strength Is Forecast During The Next 12-24

Hr...some Slight Strengthening Could Occur Before Ophelia Crosses

The North Wall Of The Gulf Stream In 12-18 Hr. After That...colder

Water...increasing Shear...and The Onset Of Extratropical

Transition Should Cause Weakening. Ophelia Is Expected To Lose

Tropical Characteristics In About 36 Hr.

 

Forecaster Beven

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 16/2100z 36.8n 73.2w 55 Kt

12hr Vt 17/0600z 38.7n 71.7w 55 Kt

24hr Vt 17/1800z 41.6n 68.5w 55 Kt

36hr Vt 18/0600z 45.2n 63.6w 50 Kt...inland Extratropical

48hr Vt 18/1800z 48.0n 57.3w 45 Kt...inland Extratropical

72hr Vt 19/1800z 51.5n 43.0w 45 Kt...extratropical

96hr Vt 20/1800z 53.5n 27.0w 40 Kt...extratropical

120hr Vt 21/1800z 55.0n 14.0w 40 Kt...extratropical

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 44

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Pm Edt Fri Sep 16 2005

 

A Last Minute Recon Report At 0220z Supports What Was Noted In

Satellite Imagery...and That Is That The Low-level Circulation

Center Is Lagging Well Behind The Mid- And Upper-level Centers By

Almost 60 Nmi. However...the System Does Not Appear To Be Shearing

Apart...but Rather...the Vortex Is Just Tilted Downstream By The

Increasing Southwesterly Upper-level Flow. The Central Pressure Has

Also Risen To 998 Mb And The Recon Winds In The Northeast Quadrant

Have Only Been Around 50 Kt At 850 Mb. However...the Southeast

Quadrant Has Not Yet Been Sampled...so I Am Holding The Intensity

At 55 Kt For This Advisory.

 

The Initial Motion And Speed Was Originally Somewhat Uncertain...

But The Timely Fix By The Air Force Reserve Recon Flight Crew

Indicates Ophelia Is Now Moving A Little Faster To The Northeast...

040 Degrees...at 13 Kt. The Nhc Model Guidance Is In Excellent

Agreement On Accelerating Ophelia To The Northeast Toward The

Southeastern Coast Of Nova Scotia In 24 Hours...which Also Keeps

The Center Well To The Southeast Of The New England States. After

24 Hours...ophelia Is Expected To Continue Accelerating To The

East-northeast Across Newfoundland In 36-48 Hours And Then Turn

Eastward Across The Far North Atlantic. The Official Forecast Track

Is A Little To The Right And Faster Than The Previous Track.

 

Increasing Shear And Much Cooler Water Is Taking Its Toll On Ophelia

Now. The 55-kt Initial Intensity May Be A Little Generous Given The

5 Mb Rise In Pressure...but Some Stronger Winds May Exist In The

Southeast Quadrant As A Result Of The Increasing Forward Speed Of

Motion. The Wind Radii Were Trimmed Back A Little In The Northwest

Quadrant Based On A 00z Ship Report. Although The Convective

Pattern Is Decreasing...increasing Baroclinic Effects From An

Approaching Vigorous Shortwave Trough Are Expected To Keep Ophelia

A Potent Extratropical Low Pressure System.

 

Forecaster Stewart

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 17/0300z 37.8n 72.2w 55 Kt

12hr Vt 17/1200z 40.0n 70.0w 55 Kt...becoming Extratropical

24hr Vt 18/0000z 43.5n 65.5w 50 Kt...extratropical

36hr Vt 18/1200z 46.5n 60.0w 50 Kt...extratropical

48hr Vt 19/0000z 48.7n 53.8w 45 Kt...extratropical

72hr Vt 20/0000z 52.2n 38.9w 45 Kt...extratropical

96hr Vt 21/0000z 55.0n 22.0w 40 Kt...extratropical

120hr Vt 22/0000z 61.0n 9.0w 40 Kt...extratropical

[vicocala]

Bulletin

Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 46a

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

2 Pm Edt Sat Sep 17 2005

 

...ophelia Becoming Less Organized As It Approaches Nova Scotia...

 

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For All Of Nova Scotia

Except For Cumberland And Colchester Counties. A Tropical Storm

Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected In The

Warning Area In The Next 24 Hours.

 

A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect For Cumberland And

Colchester Counties Of Nova Scotia...and For Prince Edward Island.

 

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible

Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued

By Your Local Weather Office.

 

At 2 Pm Edt...1800z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Ophelia Was

Located Near Latitude 41.3 North...longitude 68.2 West Or About

95 Miles... 155 Km...east Of Nantucket Massachusetts And About

340 Miles... 550 Km...southwest Of Halifax Nova Scotia.

 

Ophelia Is Moving Toward The Northeast Near 21 Mph...33 Km/hr...and

This General Motion Is Expected To Continue With An Increase In

Forward Speed During The Next 24 Hours. This Motion Will Bring The

Center Near Or Over Nova Scotia Tonight.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 60 Mph... 95 Km/hr...with Higher

Gusts. While Little Change In Strength Is Forecast During The Next

24 Hours...ophelia Is Expected To Lose Tropical Characteristics

During The Next 12 To 24 Hours.

 

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 175 Miles

...280 Km From The Center.

 

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 999 Mb...29.50 Inches.

 

Tides Of 1 To 3 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels Are Expected In The

Warning Area In Areas Of Onshore Flow.

 

Rainfalls Of 3 To 5 Inches May Occur Over Portions Of Nova Scotia.

 

Repeating The 2 Pm Edt Position...41.3 N... 68.2 W. Movement

Toward...northeast Near 21 Mph. Maximum Sustained

Winds... 60 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure... 999 Mb.

 

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National

Hurricane Center At 5 Pm Edt.

[vicocala]

This will be my last posting on Ophelia of storm data as it has passed the United States. It will continue to be a gale for those on the Eastern Seaboard of Canada for another day or two:

 

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 47

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

 

OPHELIA IS CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE

REMAINING MINIMAL CONVECTION...AND A TROUGH OR POSSIBLE FRONTAL

BAND CONTINUES TO FORM SOUTH OF THE CENTER. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO

BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN THE NEXT 12 HR... BUT MAINTAIN GALE TO

POSSIBLY STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 050/21. OPHELIA SHOULD ACCELERATE

NORTHEAST NEAR OR ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND...THEN MOVE

GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN THE FAST

WESTERLY FLOW.

 

FORECASTER BEVEN