HeatherInFlorida Posted September 15, 2005 #76 Share Posted September 15, 2005 ............... :D I haven't been carded since I was 15! :) I was just carded the other day ......... I was trying to get into the movies with the "senior" discount:D . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vicocala Posted September 16, 2005 Author #77 Share Posted September 16, 2005 Bulletin Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 39a Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl 8 Pm Edt Thu Sep 15 2005 ...ophelia Weakens To A Tropical Storm While Moving Erratically Eastward... A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect From Cape Lookout North Carolina Northward To Cape Charles Light Virginia...including The Pamlico And Albemarle Sounds...and The Chesapeake Bay South Of New Point Comfort. A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected In The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours. A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For Southeastern Massachusetts From Woods Hole Northward To Cape Cod And Plymouth...including Martha's Vineyard And Nantucket Islands. A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours. For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued By Your Local Weather Office. At 8 Pm Edt...0000z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Ophelia Was Located Near Latitude 34.6 North... Longitude 75.1 West Or About 45 Miles South-southeast Of Cape Hatteras North Carolina. Ophelia Has Been Moving Erratically Toward The East Near 5 Mph...and An East-northeastward To Northeastward Motion Is Expected Over The Next 24 Hours. However Since Steering Currents Are Weak...some Erratic Motion May Occur Tonight And Friday. Reports From An Air Force Hurricane Hunter Plane And Wsr-88d Doppler Radar Indicate That The Maximum Sustained Winds Have Decreased To Near 70 Mph...with Higher Gusts. Some Additional Weakening Is Possible During The Next 24 Hours. Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 140 Miles From The Center. The Minimum Central Pressure Recently Reported By Reconnaissance Aircraft Was 987 Mb...29.15 Inches. Maximum Coastal Storm Surge Flooding Of 2 To 4 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels...along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...can Be Expected In Areas Of Onshore Winds. A Storm Surge Of 6 To 8 Feet Is Possible At The Heads Of Bays And Rivers. Ophelia May Produce Additional Rainfall Accumulations Of 2 Inches Over Portions Of North Carolina Outer Banks During The Next 24 Hours. Repeating The 8 Pm Edt Position...34.6 N... 75.1 W. Movement Toward...east Near 5 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds... 70 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure... 987 Mb. The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At 11 Pm Edt. Forecaster Pasch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vicocala Posted September 16, 2005 Author #78 Share Posted September 16, 2005 Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 40 Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl 11 Pm Edt Thu Sep 15 2005 The Radar And Satellite Presentations Of Ophelia Continue To Deteriorate...with Minimal Convection Over The Western Semicircle Of The System. Highest 850 Mb Flight-level Winds From The Air Force Hurricane Hunters Was 74 Kt Several Hours Ago. Current Intensity Is Set At 60 Kt. Since The Cyclone Will Not Be Moving Over Significantly Cooler Waters Until About 36 Hours...only Slow Weakening Is Forecast During The Next Day Or So. After Ophelia Passes 40n Latitude...sea Surface Temperatures Decrease Rapidly...and Ophelia Should Start Its Transition Into A Vigorous Extratropical Cyclone As It Begins To Interact With A Baroclinic Zone Near New England. This Is More Or Less Consistent With The Diagnosis Of The Gfs Output On The Fsu Cyclone Phase Analysis Web Page...which Shows The System Becoming Extratropical By 72 Hours. It Is Not Possible To Be Very Precise As To How Tropical The Cyclone Will Be When It Passes Closest To Southeastern New England. The Motion Has Been Erratic Over The Past 6 Hours Or So...but Mostly Eastward...or Even East-southeastward. Current Motion Estimate Is An Uncertain 100/4. A 500 Mb Shortwave Trough Currently Moving Into Illinois Is Expected To Continue Moving Eastward And Cause Ophelia To Turn Toward The Northeast Or North-northeast With A Gradual Increase In Forward Speed Within A Day Or Two. There Are Differences Among The Various Track Models As To How Close Ophelia Will Come To Southeastern Massachusetts. The Nogaps Takes The Center Near Cape Cod...the Gfdl Just A Bit Farther East...and The Gfs Control And Gfs Ensemble Mean Are Farther Offshore. Out Of Respect For The Gfdl...the Nhc Track Is Adjusted Only Slightly To The Left. Based On The Latest Forecast...the Tropical Storm Watch For Southeastern New England Has Been Extended A Little Farther Westward In This Advisory Package. Forecaster Pasch Forecast Positions And Max Winds Initial 16/0300z 34.5n 74.8w 60 Kt 12hr Vt 16/1200z 35.5n 74.5w 60 Kt 24hr Vt 17/0000z 37.2n 73.0w 55 Kt 36hr Vt 17/1200z 40.0n 70.4w 55 Kt...becoming Extratropical 48hr Vt 18/0000z 43.0n 67.0w 50 Kt...extratropical 72hr Vt 19/0000z 48.0n 55.0w 50 Kt...inland...extratropical 96hr Vt 20/0000z 51.0n 41.0w 45 Kt...extratropical 120hr Vt 21/0000z 54.0n 24.0w 45 Kt...extratropical $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vicocala Posted September 16, 2005 Author #79 Share Posted September 16, 2005 Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 42 Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl 11 Am Edt Fri Sep 16 2005 Ophelia Is Presenting A Sheared Appearance In Satellite Imagery This Morning...with The Deep Convection Mainly In The Northeastern Quadrant. Radar Position Fixes From Coastal Wsr-88ds Are East Of Aircraft Reconnaissance Positions...suggesting The Vortex Is Tilted. The Last Pressure Measured By The Aircraft Was 996 Mb...along With 850 Mb Flight-level Winds Of 61 Kt. The Initial Intensity Is Decreased To 50 Kt Based On This. The Initial Motion Is 025/7. Ophelia Is Becoming Embedded In The Westerlies...and As A High Pressure System To The East Breaks Down The Storm Should Turn Northeastward And Accelerate. This Should Be Followed After 72 Hr By A More Eastward Motion At High Latitude. The Track Guidance Is Tightly Clustered Through 48 Hr...and The New Forecast Track Is Down The Middle Of The Guidance. The New Track Is A Little To The Left Of The Old Track...which Requires A Tropical Storm Warning For Portions Of New England At This Time. Little Change In Strength Is Expected During The Next 24 Hr As Ophelia Remains Over Relatively Warm Water. After 24 Hr...colder Water...increasing Shear...and The Onset Of Extratropical Transition Should Cause Weakening. Ophelia Is Expected To Lose Tropical Characteristics In 36-48 Hr. Forecaster Beven Forecast Positions And Max Winds Initial 16/1500z 35.7n 74.4w 50 Kt 12hr Vt 17/0000z 37.1n 73.1w 50 Kt 24hr Vt 17/1200z 39.8n 70.6w 50 Kt 36hr Vt 18/0000z 42.8n 66.7w 45 Kt...becoming Extratropical 48hr Vt 18/1200z 46.0n 60.8w 45 Kt...inland Extratropical 72hr Vt 19/1200z 50.0n 47.0w 45 Kt...extratropical 96hr Vt 20/1200z 53.0n 32.0w 40 Kt...extratropical 120hr Vt 21/1200z 53.0n 19.0w 40 Kt...extratropical $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vicocala Posted September 16, 2005 Author #80 Share Posted September 16, 2005 Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 43 Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl 5 Pm Edt Fri Sep 16 2005 Ophelia Has Somewhat Re-organized During The Day...with The Convection Making Occasional Attempts To Wrap Around The West Side Of The Low-level Center. Noaa And Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Indicate The Central Pressure Has Fallen To 993 Mb. The Noaa Plane Measured 73 Kt At 700 Mb...and A 59 Kt Surface Wind Off The Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer. However...the Maximum Wind Observed Thus Far By The Air Force Aircraft At 59 Mb Is 59 Kt. There Is Also A Report Of 74 Kt At 2500 Ft From The First-ever Successful Aerosonde Flight Into The Core Of A Tropical Cyclone. Based On All This Data...the Initial Intensity Is Increased To 55 Kt. Ophelia Has Turned Right And Accelerated With An Initial Motion Of 040/11. The Storm Is Becoming Embedded In The Westerlies...and As A High Pressure System To The East Breaks Down The Storm Should Turn Northeastward And Accelerate. This Should Be Followed After 72 Hr By A More Eastward Motion At High Latitude. The Track Guidance Is Tightly Clustered Through 48 Hr...and The New Forecast Track Is Down The Middle Of The Guidance. The New Track Is Again A Little To The Left Of The Old Track...particularly After 24 Hr. While Little Change In Strength Is Forecast During The Next 12-24 Hr...some Slight Strengthening Could Occur Before Ophelia Crosses The North Wall Of The Gulf Stream In 12-18 Hr. After That...colder Water...increasing Shear...and The Onset Of Extratropical Transition Should Cause Weakening. Ophelia Is Expected To Lose Tropical Characteristics In About 36 Hr. Forecaster Beven Forecast Positions And Max Winds Initial 16/2100z 36.8n 73.2w 55 Kt 12hr Vt 17/0600z 38.7n 71.7w 55 Kt 24hr Vt 17/1800z 41.6n 68.5w 55 Kt 36hr Vt 18/0600z 45.2n 63.6w 50 Kt...inland Extratropical 48hr Vt 18/1800z 48.0n 57.3w 45 Kt...inland Extratropical 72hr Vt 19/1800z 51.5n 43.0w 45 Kt...extratropical 96hr Vt 20/1800z 53.5n 27.0w 40 Kt...extratropical 120hr Vt 21/1800z 55.0n 14.0w 40 Kt...extratropical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vicocala Posted September 17, 2005 Author #81 Share Posted September 17, 2005 Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 44 Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl 11 Pm Edt Fri Sep 16 2005 A Last Minute Recon Report At 0220z Supports What Was Noted In Satellite Imagery...and That Is That The Low-level Circulation Center Is Lagging Well Behind The Mid- And Upper-level Centers By Almost 60 Nmi. However...the System Does Not Appear To Be Shearing Apart...but Rather...the Vortex Is Just Tilted Downstream By The Increasing Southwesterly Upper-level Flow. The Central Pressure Has Also Risen To 998 Mb And The Recon Winds In The Northeast Quadrant Have Only Been Around 50 Kt At 850 Mb. However...the Southeast Quadrant Has Not Yet Been Sampled...so I Am Holding The Intensity At 55 Kt For This Advisory. The Initial Motion And Speed Was Originally Somewhat Uncertain... But The Timely Fix By The Air Force Reserve Recon Flight Crew Indicates Ophelia Is Now Moving A Little Faster To The Northeast... 040 Degrees...at 13 Kt. The Nhc Model Guidance Is In Excellent Agreement On Accelerating Ophelia To The Northeast Toward The Southeastern Coast Of Nova Scotia In 24 Hours...which Also Keeps The Center Well To The Southeast Of The New England States. After 24 Hours...ophelia Is Expected To Continue Accelerating To The East-northeast Across Newfoundland In 36-48 Hours And Then Turn Eastward Across The Far North Atlantic. The Official Forecast Track Is A Little To The Right And Faster Than The Previous Track. Increasing Shear And Much Cooler Water Is Taking Its Toll On Ophelia Now. The 55-kt Initial Intensity May Be A Little Generous Given The 5 Mb Rise In Pressure...but Some Stronger Winds May Exist In The Southeast Quadrant As A Result Of The Increasing Forward Speed Of Motion. The Wind Radii Were Trimmed Back A Little In The Northwest Quadrant Based On A 00z Ship Report. Although The Convective Pattern Is Decreasing...increasing Baroclinic Effects From An Approaching Vigorous Shortwave Trough Are Expected To Keep Ophelia A Potent Extratropical Low Pressure System. Forecaster Stewart Forecast Positions And Max Winds Initial 17/0300z 37.8n 72.2w 55 Kt 12hr Vt 17/1200z 40.0n 70.0w 55 Kt...becoming Extratropical 24hr Vt 18/0000z 43.5n 65.5w 50 Kt...extratropical 36hr Vt 18/1200z 46.5n 60.0w 50 Kt...extratropical 48hr Vt 19/0000z 48.7n 53.8w 45 Kt...extratropical 72hr Vt 20/0000z 52.2n 38.9w 45 Kt...extratropical 96hr Vt 21/0000z 55.0n 22.0w 40 Kt...extratropical 120hr Vt 22/0000z 61.0n 9.0w 40 Kt...extratropical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vicocala Posted September 17, 2005 Author #82 Share Posted September 17, 2005 Bulletin Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 46a Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl 2 Pm Edt Sat Sep 17 2005 ...ophelia Becoming Less Organized As It Approaches Nova Scotia... A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For All Of Nova Scotia Except For Cumberland And Colchester Counties. A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected In The Warning Area In The Next 24 Hours. A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect For Cumberland And Colchester Counties Of Nova Scotia...and For Prince Edward Island. For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued By Your Local Weather Office. At 2 Pm Edt...1800z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Ophelia Was Located Near Latitude 41.3 North...longitude 68.2 West Or About 95 Miles... 155 Km...east Of Nantucket Massachusetts And About 340 Miles... 550 Km...southwest Of Halifax Nova Scotia. Ophelia Is Moving Toward The Northeast Near 21 Mph...33 Km/hr...and This General Motion Is Expected To Continue With An Increase In Forward Speed During The Next 24 Hours. This Motion Will Bring The Center Near Or Over Nova Scotia Tonight. Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 60 Mph... 95 Km/hr...with Higher Gusts. While Little Change In Strength Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours...ophelia Is Expected To Lose Tropical Characteristics During The Next 12 To 24 Hours. Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 175 Miles ...280 Km From The Center. Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 999 Mb...29.50 Inches. Tides Of 1 To 3 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels Are Expected In The Warning Area In Areas Of Onshore Flow. Rainfalls Of 3 To 5 Inches May Occur Over Portions Of Nova Scotia. Repeating The 2 Pm Edt Position...41.3 N... 68.2 W. Movement Toward...northeast Near 21 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds... 60 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure... 999 Mb. The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At 5 Pm Edt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vicocala Posted September 17, 2005 Author #83 Share Posted September 17, 2005 This will be my last posting on Ophelia of storm data as it has passed the United States. It will continue to be a gale for those on the Eastern Seaboard of Canada for another day or two: TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 OPHELIA IS CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REMAINING MINIMAL CONVECTION...AND A TROUGH OR POSSIBLE FRONTAL BAND CONTINUES TO FORM SOUTH OF THE CENTER. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN THE NEXT 12 HR... BUT MAINTAIN GALE TO POSSIBLY STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 050/21. OPHELIA SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEAST NEAR OR ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND...THEN MOVE GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW. FORECASTER BEVEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.