Hurricane Ophelia could threaten the SE US

[TVMet]

BULLETIN

HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

 

...OPHELIA REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH...COULD BECOME A THREAT TO THE

SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST...

 

INTERESTS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CLOSELY

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES

EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA AND ABOUT 220 MILES

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

 

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. THIS MOTION IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE

NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE

CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 70 MILES.

 

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE

PLANE WAS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

 

 

Latest Forecast...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT16/refresh/AL1605W5+gif/204657W_sm.gif

 

Satellite

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg

 

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

 

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND OBJECTIVE

T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT OPHELIA HAS A CLOUD PATTERN

ASSOCIATED WITH A HURRICANE. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE RECENTLY

MEASURED 983 MB...72-KNOT WINDS AT 700 MB...A FEW 62-KNOT WINDS

MEASURED BY THE SFMR AND A 10-N MI DIAMETER CIRCULAR EYE. FOR

ACADEMICS...PERHAPS IT IS NECESSARY TO HAVE ONE OR TWO MORE KNOTS

TO MAKE A OPHELIA A HURRICANE...BUT THIS IS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE

OFFICIAL INITIAL INTENSITY...SO OPHELIA IS A 65-KNOT HURRICANE NOW.

THE SHEAR MAY INCREASE A LITTLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT A MORE

FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER

OPHELIA...ONCE THE HURRICANE BEGINS ITS WESTWARD TURN. A GRADUAL

STRENGHTENING IS INDICATED...BUT OPHELIA IS KEPT AS A CATEGORY ONE

HURRICANE. HOWEVER...TO ERR BY ONE OR TWO CATEGORIES IS NOT

IMPOSSIBLE...DUE TO OUR LACK OF SKILL IN FORECASTING RAPID

INTENSITY CHANGE.

 

OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS

AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST

TO LIFT OUT AND BE REPLACED BY A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE

NORTH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE OPHELIA TO STOP AND THEN TURN

TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. HOW FAR WEST THE HURRICANE WILL GO

DEPENDS ON THE ABILITY OF EACH MODEL IN FORECASTING THE INTENSITY

OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF OPHELIA. WE ARE PUTTING ALL THE BETS IN

THE FORMATION OF THE HIGH AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A

TURN TOWARD THE U.S. COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT

GOING AS FAR WEST AND SOUTH AS THE GFDL AND NOT AS FAR NORTH AND

EAST AS THE GFS. IN FACT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE

CONSENSUS AND BRINGS THE HURRICANE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IN

ABOUT 3 DAYS OR SO.

 

FORECASTER AVILA

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 09/2100Z 30.0N 78.2W 65 KT

12HR VT 10/0600Z 30.6N 78.0W 65 KT

24HR VT 10/1800Z 31.3N 77.5W 70 KT

36HR VT 11/0600Z 31.5N 77.7W 75 KT

48HR VT 11/1800Z 31.6N 78.0W 80 KT

72HR VT 12/1800Z 32.0N 79.5W 80 KT

96HR VT 13/1800Z 33.0N 80.5W 50 KT...INLAND

120HR VT 14/1800Z 35.0N 79.5W 30 KT...INLAND

[kenandlaura06]

Thanks for the update.