Tropical Depression 1 5 pm Sat Jul 31

[TVMet]

Bulletin
Tropical Depression One Advisory Number 1
National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
5 PM EDT Sat Jul 31 2004

...First Tropical Depression of the 2004 season forms off the
Southeastern Coast Of The United States...Tropical Storm Watch
Issued...

At 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from
Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Hatteras North Carolina...
including the Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Watch means that
tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area during the
next 36 hours.

At 5 Pm EDT...2100z...the broad and poorly defined center of
Tropical Depression One was located near Latitude 30.6 North...
Longitude 78.6 West or about 175 Miles South-southeast Of
Charleston South Carolina.

The Depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 MPH. A
gradual turn toward the north is expected during the next 24 hours.
This motion could bring the center of the depression near the coast
of the Southeastern United States on Sunday.

Maximum Sustained Winds are near 30 MPH...with higher gusts...
mainly in squalls to the east of the center. Some slow
strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and the
depression could become a tropical storm on Sunday.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure is 1010 Mb...29.83 Inches.

An Intermediate Advisory will be issued by The National
Hurricane Center at 8 Pm Edt followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 Pm EDT.

Forecaster Beven

[url]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT01/refresh/AL0104W+GIF/312103W.gif[/url]

[TVMet]

Tropical Depression One Probabilities Number 1
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
5 Pm Edt Sat Jul 31 2004

Probabilities For Guidance In Hurricane Protection
Planning By Government And Disaster Officials

At 5 Pm Edt...2100z...the Depression Center Was Located Near
Latitude 30.6 North...longitude 78.6 West

Chances Of Center Of The Depression Passing Within 65 Nautical Miles
Of Listed Locations Through 2pm Edt Tue Aug 3 2004

Location A B C D E
Norfolk Va X 1 10 5 16
Ocean City Md X X 3 9 12
Atlantic City Nj X X 1 9 10
Jacksonville Fl 2 X X 1 3
Savannah Ga 26 X X X 26
Charleston Sc 45 X X X 45
Myrtle Beach Sc 30 1 X X 31
Wilmington Nc 12 10 2 X 24
Morehead City Nc 2 13 4 1 20
Cape Hatteras Nc X 7 8 3 18

Column Definition Probabilities In Percent
A Is Probability From Now To 2pm Sun
Following Are Additional Probabilities
B From 2pm Sun To 2am Mon
C From 2am Mon To 2pm Mon
D From 2pm Mon To 2pm Tue
E Is Total Probability From Now To 2pm Tue
X Means Less Than One Percent

Forecaster Beven