TVMet Posted August 10, 2004 #1 Share Posted August 10, 2004 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004 ...SMALL TROPICAL STORM BONNIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... INTERESTS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BONNIE. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST OR ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BONNIE IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL STORM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD ONLY UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...23.6 N... 90.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004 IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...BONNIE REMAINS A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH A SMALL CDO...CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...AND BANDING THAT IS LIMITED BUT INCREASING. THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING BONNIE SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINING ITS ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH. THE CREW REPORTED A 10 MILE WIDE EYE...ALMOST UNHEARD OF IN A SYSTEM OF THIS INTENSITY. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 49 KT...AND A DROPSONDE IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 43 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONES SUCH AS BONNIE ARE PRONE TO RAPID CHANGES IN INTENSITY...EITHER UP OR DOWN. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FACTORS THAT WOULD ARGUE FOR SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FIRST...ALTHOUGH BONNIE IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR...IT SHOULD BE MOVING UNDER LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF LATER TODAY. SECOND...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES BONNIE OVER OR VERY NEAR A POOL OF DEEP WARM WATER IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. A MITIGATING FACTOR WOULD BE THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS MAKE BONNIE A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW INTENSIFICATION...BUT IN FACT BARELY ACKNOWLEDGES BONNIE'S EXISTENCE DUE TO THE CYCLONE'S SMALL SIZE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CALLS FOR BONNIE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND IS CONSIDERABLY BELOW THE GFDL GUIDANCE. THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/7...SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. MOST OF THE 3-DIMENSIONAL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TURNS BONNIE SHARPLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ABOUT TO ENTER THE WESTERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...IS FAIRLY SIMILAR THEREAFTER...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL GUIDANCE. THE NOAA G-IV JET WILL CONDUCT A MISSION IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF BONNIE THIS EVENING TO IMPROVE THE INITIAL CONDITION FOR THE NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 23.6N 90.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 24.2N 90.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 11/0600Z 25.5N 90.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 11/1800Z 26.6N 89.8W 60 KT 48HR VT 12/0600Z 28.0N 88.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 13/0600Z 33.5N 81.0W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 14/0600Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT02/refresh/AL0204W+GIF/100858W.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TVMet Posted August 10, 2004 Author #2 Share Posted August 10, 2004 Tropical Storm Bonnie Probabilities Number 9 Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl 4 Am Cdt Tue Aug 10 2004 Probabilities For Guidance In Hurricane Protection Planning By Government And Disaster Officials At 4 Am Cdt...0900z...the Center Of Bonnie Was Located Near Latitude 23.6 North...longitude 90.1 West Chances Of Center Of The Storm Passing Within 65 Nautical Miles Of Listed Locations Through 1am Cdt Fri Aug 13 2004 Location A B C D E Location A B C D E 25.5n 90.7w 38 1 X X 39 Tampa Fl X X 1 11 12 26.6n 89.8w 17 8 1 X 26 Cedar Key Fl X X 1 14 15 28.0n 88.0w X 11 10 1 22 St Marks Fl X X 2 16 18 Mygf 266n 787w X X X 2 2 Apalachicola Fl X X 6 13 19 Marathon Fl X X X 2 2 Panama City Fl X X 7 13 20 Miami Fl X X X 3 3 Pensacola Fl X X 11 9 20 W Palm Beach Fl X X X 5 5 Mobile Al X X 12 8 20 Ft Pierce Fl X X X 7 7 Gulfport Ms X 1 14 5 20 Cocoa Beach Fl X X X 9 9 Buras La X 7 12 2 21 Daytona Beach Fl X X X 11 11 New Orleans La X 4 12 3 19 Jacksonville Fl X X X 14 14 New Iberia La X 4 9 2 15 Savannah Ga X X X 14 14 Port Arthur Tx X 1 5 1 7 Charleston Sc X X X 12 12 Galveston Tx X 1 3 1 5 Myrtle Beach Sc X X X 10 10 Freeport Tx X 1 2 X 3 Wilmington Nc X X X 7 7 Gulf 29n 85w X X 7 11 18 Morehead City Nc X X X 5 5 Gulf 29n 87w X 2 14 5 21 Cape Hatteras Nc X X X 3 3 Gulf 28n 89w 1 15 6 1 23 Norfolk Va X X X 3 3 Gulf 28n 91w 1 18 3 X 22 Key West Fl X X X 3 3 Gulf 28n 93w X 12 3 X 15 Marco Island Fl X X X 6 6 Gulf 28n 95w X 3 2 X 5 Ft Myers Fl X X 1 7 8 Gulf 27n 96w X 1 1 X 2 Venice Fl X X 1 10 11 Column Definition Probabilities In Percent A Is Probability From Now To 1am Wed Following Are Additional Probabilities B From 1am Wed To 1pm Wed C From 1pm Wed To 1am Thu D From 1am Thu To 1am Fri E Is Total Probability From Now To 1am Fri X Means Less Than One Percent Forecaster Franklin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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