Tropical Depression 8 now ALIVE

[skyking]

I wanted to put this up on the main board so people would actually see it. We are cruising Mariner on Sunday, and im sure it will affect our itinerary.

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5day#contents

[kruz]

Tim, any idea when RCCL would make itinerary changes? Looks like we may be going to Mexico...

[skyking]

Kruz,

 

Thats my thought as well...Im sure they are scrambling right now...If they it right we should know in a day or so, but I can see them saying all is fine until we board and then we found out that we are going to the Western Caribbean, which is fine with us. Like I said maybe some folks will cancel and I can get us a suite:)

[kruz]

Kruz,

 

Thats my thought as well...Im sure they are scrambling right now...If they it right we should know in a day or so, but I can see them saying all is fine until we board and then we found out that we are going to the Western Caribbean, which is fine with us. Like I said maybe some folks will cancel and I can get us a suite:)

 

 

Not I...I don't care if we go to Hong Kong I just wanna be on the ship!!

Hey, I wouldn't mind if they dropped anchor right off the coast of Florida!

Miami looks nice at night all lit up!

[J-bear]

I think this may be our fault. We have tried to take our honeymoon for 3 years now... our first (the day after our actual wedding) was cancelled due to Hurricane Jeanne flooding our resort in the Bahamas. Then, the following year my DH was deployed for Hurricane Katrina. Last year, we didn't even try...

 

Now darn it! I'm going on this trip come he!! or high water. Arrrrrrgh! I'll be the one on the pier blowing out towards the ocean trying to blow the storm back towards Africa... I'm full of hot air :p

 

All in all though... I'll be happy as long as we can fly into Orlando and get on the ship on Sunday... the rest is just gravy. I'm sure a western will be just fine.

[skyking]

Another thing I just looked at is this storm could be affecting FL when we are supposed to return, so maybe an extra day or two?

[kruz]

Another thing I just looked at is this storm could be affecting FL when we are supposed to return, so maybe an extra day or two?

 

 

That would be AWESOME!!!! I hope there's plenty of rum stocked on board for all the pirates!!

 

What part of Florida, should I be battening down the hatches???

[skyking]

It looks like it could hit the East Coast of FL...Maybe skirt South and drag across South Fl as well...It should be interesting thats for sure.

[kruz]

I looks like we'll all be on board in plenty of time :)

That is a good thing!

[skyking]

YES we will be onboard, and should make Cocoacay with no problems

[kruz]

Cool...I always thought I would be spending my b'day in St. Thomas...maybe not!!

Aruba would be nice :)

[amyt]

I am hoping for extra days onboard!!! I just told my boss, if I am not in the office on Monday, it means that I am still onboard with a drink in my hand!!! I can't wait to board the Mariner on Sunday!!!!

[skyking]

I am hoping for extra days onboard!!! I just told my boss, if I am not in the office on Monday, it means that I am still onboard with a drink in my hand!!! I can't wait to board the Mariner on Sunday!!!!

 

Who the heck is this???? :) and WHY have you not joined our crazy group over on the roll calls???:) hehe

[scalde]

I will be sailing out htis sunday also on the freedom. i wonder if the will do a reverse itinerary and go to cozumel first.

[kruz]

Looks like we'll all be wondering where we'll end up!!!

[kruisin' kim]

Hmmmm....

never been to Aruba...now that I wouldn't mind!:p

Kim

[FIRELT5]

Most Long term Computer Models bring this system North of the Leewards.

Still alot of Divergence in location after Day 4 with a 400 mile track difference ?? All Models will have a better handle on this when the system strenghtens into a T/S.

[kruisin' kim]

Well...it should be a TS real soon! My travel mate is a travel agent and she is trying to find out something now!

Kim

[skyking]

Well...it should be a TS real soon! My travel mate is a travel agent and she is trying to find out something now!

Kim

 

Kim please let us know.

[FIRELT5]

Well...it should be a TS real soon! My travel mate is a travel agent and she is trying to find out something now!

Kim

 

System will probaly be a T/S within a 24 to 36 Hour time frame. Depression was about 1200 miles east of the NA islands @1100 est. General upper level winds will most likely probagate this system somewhere to the east Coast in about 10 Days. Predicitions are for a Powerfull Hurricane at that time. Stay Tuned as conditions will change !!!

[kruisin' kim]

not sure what you're looking at, Firelt5, but wundergound has it as a TS by 8pm tonight!

Kim

[FIRELT5]

not sure what you're looking at' date=' Firelt5, but wundergound has it as a TS by 8pm tonight!

Kim[/quote']

 

Looking at the offical NHC forecasting discussion not Just a Weather Blog by Dr. Masters. PLease use caution when relating to Weather Blogs !!!

 

Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

 

000

WTNT43 KNHC 121440

TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007

1100 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

 

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS ACQUIRED

ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE

EIGHTH OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON. THE CENTER OF THE ELONGATED

CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE THUNDERSTORM

ACTIVITY DUE TO SOME EASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK T NUMBERS FROM TAFB

AND SAB SUPPORT 30 KT...WHICH WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

 

MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE

HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE FASTER DURING THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND THE

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 295/10. THE

DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE

AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING

DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN A DAY

OR SO WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO DECELERATE AND MOVE

SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY.

 

THE CURRENT EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY

OR SO WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. THUS...CONDITIONS

APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.

BEYOND 72 HOURS....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTH AND WEST OF

THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WHICH SHOULD

HALT ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 12/1500Z 13.2N 44.6W 30 KT

12HR VT 13/0000Z 13.6N 45.9W 35 KT

24HR VT 13/1200Z 14.0N 47.3W 45 KT

36HR VT 14/0000Z 14.3N 48.4W 50 KT

48HR VT 14/1200Z 14.6N 49.5W 55 KT

72HR VT 15/1200Z 15.1N 51.4W 60 KT

96HR VT 16/1200Z 16.0N 54.5W 60 KT

120HR VT 17/1200Z 17.0N 57.5W 60 KT

 

 

RCCL also uses the National Hurricane Center for Guidance along with other software references :)

[skyking]

Looking at the offical NHC forecasting discussion not Just a Weather Blog by Dr. Masters. PLease use caution when relating to Weather Blogs !!!

 

UMMM just saw the update on the Weather Channel and they said the same thing...Could be a Tropical Storm at the next update tonight..THANKS FOR PLAYING!

[curlymason]

sheesh...this is like cruise ship roulette...where oh where will the Mariner land? :confused: :D

[Karson]

please keep me posted...............am flying into Orlando on Sat for Carnival Glory cruise, Eastern Caribbean.....................................PLEASE