Dolly

[yarlenna]

There is new one "Dolly" That means that there are three right now.

[agmom2]

We sail our first cruise tomorrow on Ecstasy from Galveston. How, when, or will we know if Carnival makes changes? :confused:

[TVMet]

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008

200 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

 

...DOLLY ORGANIZING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...

 

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY

NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS

THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH

AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF

MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL

STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST OR ABOUT 250

MILES...400 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 200 MILES...320

KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

 

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A

NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON

THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF

MEXICO ON MONDAY.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE DOLLY REACHES

THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON MONDAY

ONCE DOLLY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM

FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM

FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TODAY.

 

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 mb...29.77 INCHES.

 

FORECAST:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0408W_sm2+gif/154013W_sm.gif

[melissa@cruisecritic]

agmom2 (and others!), just wanted to let you know that we've reached out to Carnival and other cruise lines with ships in the area -- and will post any itinerary changes that are announced right here on Cruise Critic in the Hurricane Zone: http://www.cruisecritic.com/news/hurricane.cfm.

 

Please keep checking back for new information; we publish it as soon as we receive it.

 

Safe travels,

Melissa

[HCW]

This storm looks like it's trying to form an EYE :D I wouldn't be shocked if it shoots the gap in the next 15 hours and heads further north than the models are showing .

[*Mach*]

This storm looks like it's trying to form an EYE :D I wouldn't be shocked if it shoots the gap in the next 15 hours and heads further north than the models are showing .

 

 

Hummm... it's only showing the slightest hint of rotation... It's only real hope for becoming something interesting is, as you suggested, avoid the Yucatan and feed on the warm water...

The models are pretty solidly in favor of its current path or perhaps even a bit more westerly...

Time will tell!!

[TVMet]

Forecast map... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0408W_sm2+gif/205012W_sm.gif

 

Computer models... http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early2.png

 

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008

500 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

 

...DOLLY HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF

MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL

STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM

BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM

WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE

WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST OR ABOUT 220

MILES...350 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 165 MILES...265

KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

 

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A

NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED

EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE

ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TONIGHT...EMERGE OVER THE

SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN

GULF ON TUESDAY.

 

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEFORE DOLLY

REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST

ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTER DOLLY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF

MEXICO.

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM

FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM

FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TONIGHT.

 

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE

AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 mb...29.77 INCHES.

 

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE

NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH

ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4

INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF UP

TO 8 INCHES.

[NJBill]

000

WTNT34 KNHC 211454

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 5

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008

1100 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

...DOLLY NOW OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

 

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE NORTHWARD TO PORT O'CONNOR. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

 

AT 1100 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

 

AT 1100 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO THE U.S.

BORDER...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM LA PESCA MEXICO NORTHWARD TO RIO SAN FERNANDO.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 90 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.

 

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DIRECTION OF MOTION. ON THIS TRACK...DOLLY WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DOLLY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW.

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER.

 

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

 

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO SIX INCHES.

 

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...22.1 N...89.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

 

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.

 

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

 

 

------------------------------------------------------------------

This information is provided as a public service from the

National Hurricane Center

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov or http://hurricanes.gov

[TMWTim]

Looking at the Ecstasy in the webcam. Will she sail today out of Galveston and if so, to where?

[FIRELT5]

000

WTNT34 KNHC 211454

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 5

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008

1100 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

...DOLLY NOW OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

 

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE NORTHWARD TO PORT O'CONNOR. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

 

AT 1100 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

 

AT 1100 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO THE U.S.

BORDER...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM LA PESCA MEXICO NORTHWARD TO RIO SAN FERNANDO.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 90 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.

 

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DIRECTION OF MOTION. ON THIS TRACK...DOLLY WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DOLLY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW.

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER.

 

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

 

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO SIX INCHES.

 

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...22.1 N...89.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

 

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.

 

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

 

 

------------------------------------------------------------------

This information is provided as a public service from the

National Hurricane Center

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov or http://hurricanes.gov

 

 

Sorry to Say that we are in for a very active Year. The CV season is off and running with Greater than 2C+ above average for SST'S., and favorable conditions aloft. It also looks like you have disturbances lined up into Africa along the ITCZ ???? Very interesting ????

[KrystinasMom]

:D I wouldn't be shocked if it shoots the gap in the next 15 hours and heads further north than the models are showing .

 

NOPE! Still heading straight for ME, just as predicted!!!:eek:

[HCW]

Rainfall total of 5 inches per hour being reported ! WOW

[KrystinasMom]

Rainfall total of 5 inches per hour being reported ! WOW

 

We are inland about 1 hour from South Padre Island & it's just now starting to get bad. Wind is really picking up & raining harder. Hadn't seen this in a REALLY long time. We lost power this morning for about 1/2 hour and my parents lost power for about 1.5 hours. Just spoke with my brother(they are about 20 min east of us = towards the coast) and they just lost power. Main problem will be flooding as it is moving very slowly..............