I guess it really depends on your risk tolerance. Late February is at the end of the "fog season" and it's not like there is fog every day, so you could probably roll the dice on the 2PM flight and the chances are you'd be fine.
On the other hand, if there is fog, the port authority keeps the returning ships on the gulf side of the Sunshine Skyway, so even after the fog clears out (usually mid-morning), you have at least another 2 hrs before you arrive at the terminal.
To Duane's point, if you have the schedule flexibility, and don't want to have to worry about re-scheduling anything, flying out the next day is a much more stress-free option.