drlucy12

1 hour ago, Saab4444 said:

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/news/joint-survey-shows-status-northern-european-cruise-ports

I saw this article a few minutes ago.  I was hopeful about northern Europe....if any part of a European cruise season could be salvaged, I would think it would be the Baltic region.  However, who knows about Russia

Just now, zekekelso said:

 

Unfortunately, cruisers are pretty lousy tourists from a revenue standpoint. And from a public health standpoint. I agree the situation is unpredictable, but even if things open up for foreign tourists, cruise dockings will be the last thing to open. 

Will the countries open to "land" tours before cruising? That would definitely be more beneficial for them from a financial perspective because the tourists would stay in a city for 3 or 4 days and book a hotel, eat in restaurants, etc.  A tourist from a cruise ship is only in a port for 6 to 8 hours.  I am not knocking cruise ships, but it will be interesting to see what the EU does over the next few months.  

5 minutes ago, MADflyer said:

Many airlines will fail. 

 

What was interesting was that their 'attempt' to survive involves not flying ANY international flights until summer of 2021 and thus the relation to this topic. They do not see even attempting to fly in 2020 as an option and that is somewhat amazing. 

Travel in the future will be significantly different.  I agree - many airlines will fail, along with hotels, restaurants, etc.  It would be nice to have a crystal ball at this point.   If the demand returns for international flights, their strategy may change but all speculation right now.  

21 minutes ago, MADflyer said:

While not directly related, it does show the trend developing. 

 

Norwegian Airlines has just presented a plan for survival that will be based on having no international flights until 2021.

 

They are working with the Norwegian government and the plan involves getting concessions from creditors. 

Unfortunately, Norwegian Air was having financial trouble last year before COVID 19 hit.  The virus worsened the situation.  I am not sure they will survive now.  

Just now, TeeRick said:

I think there is general confusion everywhere about "flattening the curve".  In my view it is very different from "eliminating the curve".  The original intent of social distancing and lock downs was to avoid the unchecked exponential rise of infections leading to hospitalizations and death.   This outcome would overwhelm health care systems, resources, equipment and workers.  A significant time was needed to plan for and deal with expected surges.  Presumably there is a level of cases under a "flattened curve" that the beefed up healthcare systems could then handle.  That level was never expected to be zero.  Even with a vaccine.  That is unrealistic.  Yes there will be hotspots that arise after the society opens again but these should be handled under the new normal that arises after everything that was built and learned.  

Very true, This virus will be with us for years.  Hopefully there will be a vaccine or effective treatment in the next 18 months to 2 years.  However viruses mutate which will make vaccine development tricky.  

The Spanish and Italian governments have to consider the safety of their people but the economic impacts will be devastating.  Hotels, restaurants, tour operators....

40 minutes ago, npcl said:

Depends upon the country.  Norway closed all of its ports to cruise ships very early.

Very true.  Spain and Italy are shut down for the rest of the year (or so I am reading on this board).  Will all countries follow this plan? I can’t see every country in Europe staying closed to tourism for the rest of 2020 but it is all speculation now.  

Will the Baltic countries open sooner than Italy or Spain? They have dealt with the virus in a different manner.  The Vasa museum in Stockholm is facing a difficult financial situation right now due to lack of tourists.  Will these countries be open to possible land tours and cruising later? I think everyone wants to return to cruising and our vacations but it has to be done in a responsible manner for the health of everyone involved.  

14 minutes ago, madmacs said:

I understand that Carnival have enough cash to last the year out, and RCCL and NCL maybe a bit less. This clearly raises big concerns - if the cruise lines can't get back this year. I know they have assets like large ships, but if no-ne is cruising they become liabilities. I was predicting the lines had a 75% chance of surviving, if there are no cruises this year it will become less than 50/50 in my opinion. My experience was in business planning albeit in energy rather than cruising.

 

I agree.  Cash flow becomes a HUGE problem for them if they cannot start sailing again.  Will they try to start with short cruises to the Caribbean at the end of the year to generate some revenue??  

3 minutes ago, WrittenOnYourHeart said:

 

And if it is shown that having it does not grant immunity OR if you are one of the people who do not store antibodies, then what? Being tested for having had it will do no good. And a test prior to embarkation day will do no good as you can easily have been exposed, test negative one day, and positive the next.

Very true.....lots of questions for the travel industry to answer.  

Just now, TeeRick said:

I think that is my point actually.  There needs to be another acceptable solution to get cruising and travel moving again.  It will be much too long to wait for a vaccine solution even if it is the best solution.  

Yes I agree

21 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

I know this is Cruise Critic so folks here are focused on potential cruise line vaccine policies.  But.... First let's see if a highly effective vaccine actually gets developed and when.  Second let's see how many hundreds of millions of doses can be manufactured and distributed worldwide.  And at what cost. Third let's see who gets limited access at least initially like health care workers and the immune compromised people.  Fourth lets see if countries will require vaccinations or other requirements to enter.  Finally and probably much later on, lets see if healthy cruise passengers will  be required to be vaccinated for their own safety, and see which passengers choose to get vaccinated.    Cruise passengers will not be high on the initial priority list to get the limited vaccine available.   This all sounds to me like years and not months.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Valid points....However, can the cruise industry, airlines or anyone in the tourism industry survive that long and wait on an effective vaccine? If the coronavirus mutates as most viruses do, a vaccine will take longer to develop and then will not fully effective much like our current flu shot.

It brings up the point....will these countries allow "land" based tours before cruises to generate some revenue? Italy, Spain, and other countries depend heavily on tourism to support their economy.   I know this is a board to support cruising but hotels, restaurants and multiple other venues will feel the effects too.  Countries have to find the right balance for the health and safety of their people and the financial impact too. 

2 hours ago, cruiser man 60 said:

If Italy & Spain don't reopen borders until March 2021 there won't be many tourist businesses left to open up again and their economies will have collapsed as they both rely greatly on tourism.

Yes I agree.  What is the best approach to tourism for Europe? I do not know, but I think they will have a huge push back from the tourism sector if they try to wait and open in 2021.  

6 minutes ago, Bo1953 said:

Most likely similar documentation to that for vaccinations required to enter some countries...

 

bon voyage

Will Italy or Spain require proof of vaccination before allowing any foreign tourists to enter the country? Even "land" based tours? Italy depends heavily on tourism to support their economy.  Yellow fever vaccine is highly recommended to travel to Peru but not required.  If the vaccine is 12 to 18 months away or longer (especially if the COVID 19 mutates),  can these countries wait that long? Just speculation right now.....

If the cruise lines have to wait for a vaccine to sail again, I am not sure we will have a cruise industry or either it will need to be drastically restructured.    What is the right balance between health of passengers, crew and financial stability???? I do not know.