Formula280SS

21 minutes ago, Capitan Obvious said:

 

It is just laughable that people think that a coompany whose headquarters sits in Miami, Florida somehow pays nothing in US taxes, etc, etc, etc.

 

IMO, it's not really about not paying US taxes (employment taxes by employers and employees, sales and drinks taxes and other fees in some ports, or federal and state (if applicable) income taxes).  IMO, the real reason is that there are no votes to be gained from the ship employees to merit cause for consideration of relief, assistance or even timely protocol response.  

5 minutes ago, crewsweeper said:

Yes, there's COVID and variants in Florida.  But positive tests and hospitalizations are declining, number of vaccines are rising and severity of positive tests has lessen.  Miami/So FL is the hot spot for variants, just like those areas were the hotspots for original COVID.  Part of the culture amongst the populace there.

In the meantime life for the rest of us Floridians , with our masks and precautions, goes on.  Unlike New York, New Jersey, Michigan,  California and Chicago schools where the pols are still forcing everyone to hunkered down shaking in fear.

Biggest panic is over which areas are able to get vaccines at Publix ("red" counties) and which are not ("deep blue" counties).

Thanks.

We hear that from almost everyone that has been to Florida from the Fall through now.  Heck, even one of our sons, with essentially shuttered hospitality venues in Boston, just went back down there for another 6-8 weeks to enjoy not only the weather but the seemingly stress-free comparative daily life.

Funny about those vaccine colors.  😀

Funny here in our little state, vaccinations going as well as supply allows, it was just highlighted in the news how "thousands" are ready to assist in giving the vaccinations.  Odd in that we get 17,000 per week, a little under 2,500 a day.  If we have thousands doing the vaccination, what are they doing "one apiece per day?"  🙄

4 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

 

How can you do one but ignore the other? 

 

I hadn't seen that, thanks.  And, I do get it.

My point was, there was total support from the MSM in regards to NY versus administration; so with anticipation the wait to watch what they say about Florida (risking lives, dangerous, no regard for the science, reckless...just a few descriptions expected).

Again, I believe the federal government has the legal authority as cited, and believe that if the greater NYC area was quarantined at the outset of the pandemic it would not have traveled so far so fast. 

Heck Wuhan, a large metropolis about 2/3rd the size of NYC, was quarantined for 76 days; apparently effectively per world reports.

48 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

Just when I think we are making progress out of this mess another wrench is thrown. White house is considering a ban on domestic travel to florida. Miami apparently has the majority of a. African variant of covid, so White House is considering what to do. 

 

I'm considering moving to florida. But until then I guess I might wind up continuing to drive there. I have the vaccine, but I know cdc doesnt consider it safe, especially from new variants. Let's take florida back down to level with ny they say. I can personally avoid miami.

 

If some kind of ban on travel to florida does get approved, that would kill cruising out of florida for the duration imo.

It's all "relative."

When NYC was the epicenter of the virus at the outset with thousands and thousands of cases, hospitalizations and deaths, and a quarantine was considered by the administration; it was rebuked by governor of NY as illegal, supported by the MSM and related allies.  So now, we have a 180, as a small number of a "variant" (British, African or Brazilian, variant of the Wuhan, China 🤐 original virus) appear in Miami, in Florida.  What do you think that those so adamantly opposed to the NYC quarantine would think about a quarantine on the STATE of Florida?  🙃

Personally, I was in favor of the greater NYC area quarantine response at the time and believe that it was legal under cordon sanitaire from the Public Health Services Act.  But hey, political science is "the science" in lay of our land today.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/28/ny-gov-cuomo-says-trump-has-no-authority-to-impose-quarantine.html

6 minutes ago, panamatiger said:

Yeah, the bailout to the airlines should have included a demand that they give refunds and not credits. The airlines ****

 

😀

Yep.  We've got tons of "travel funds available."

Also, we still have no idea what we're going to do with these either (or the companion pass).

😲

14 hours ago, Laszlo said:

I remember people saying cruising would return in a month, then it was three, then late summer, then the fall, then the winter.......You point? I always said it would be 12-18 months if were lucky. We can't get teachers back in school, restaurants, movies open, you think most of the population is worried about cruising? Lol. Some people seem to live and die by cruise credit, that facts is the people who post here are a tiny tiny % of the population around the world

I can understand the frustration.

I guess we were reacting in real time as what we were told kept changing and getting pushed out.  IMO, not all was based on the virus and the response, it snowballed and even continued into the vaccination phase, which also we were to believe would the light at the end of the tunnel (which now looks like we'll still be wearing double masks, social distancing, etc. and group or crowd activities, unfortunately and especially cruising, will be subject to the "cause to remove" Great Reset).

It does look like, at 18 months, we will still be another 6-9 months away from whatever the new protocols on revenue cruising as we know it.

Re: teachers back, most are, in one form or another; except for some really demographic teacher union resistance areas.  Here is a state by state site for updates.  Just hover over a state.  There are many states which, after an initial shutdown on the virus outset, returned to school.

https://*****/3rPboQN

Or this one.  🙄

https://www.edweek.org/leadership/map-where-are-schools-closed/2020/07?s_kwcid=AL!6416!3!486544088589!b!!g!!&utm_source=goog&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=ew+dynamic+recent &ccid=dynamic+ads+recent+articles&ccag=recent+articles+dynamic&cckw=&cccv=dynamic+ad&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIv62x2pLi7gIVD7SzCh0B8wH8EAAYASAAEgIWT_D_BwE

Re: restaurants, etc., it is a state by state, and even county or city intra-state, matter.  Many states are quite open, others are quite locked down.

Re: % of population cruisers.  Yep.  That doesn't mean that cruising shouldn't be allowed to those who choose to under the new, upcoming conditions and protocols.  IMO, it will not be from the US ports for quite a bit longer than non-US ports.  Too much political science, or lack, manipulation and selective application at hand.

Hope you hope again.  Good luck.  👍

We know.  Don't be so hard on yourself.

12 minutes ago, mickey89 said:

I had to resort to reclaiming my refund through my Credit Card company using Section 75, that was many months ago. Over 9 months later MSC still have not refunded.  Not a trustworthy company IMHO.

4 minutes ago, mickey89 said:

MSC transferred us to a different cruise ship and never even told us. When I eventually was able to talk to them they refused to give a refund even when we had booked YC and the new ship didn’t have the Yacht Club.   Totally untrustworthy company.

2 hours ago, mickey89 said:

Emma’s gran........you miss the point AGAIN, as you always do. Get your facts correct.!
Never realised you cruised Preziosa last year, you cruised in 2019 if I am not mistaken. We also enjoyed 2019 Preziosa cruise but what a mistake January ‘20 was, MSC had gone downhill rapidly as everyone in the YC commented. Get up to date darling.......  

1 hour ago, mickey89 said:

Emma’s gran..... at least I submitted a review of that cruise, balanced.......

Did you ?

https://www.cruisecritic.co.uk/memberreviews/memberreview.cfm?EntryID=651040

It looks not everyone had the same experience (i.e., like "everyone in the YC").  LOL.

MSC in 2019 over 2018 ~

MSC's passenger occupancy was a record 112.3%.

MSC's passenger capacity increased 14.4%.

MSC's passenger count increased 16.2%.

MSC's revenues increased 17.5%.

What every happened to Life Cereal?

4 minutes ago, Trimone said:

Out of interest do the US government offer recovery bonds, its something that’s being talked about in the U.K. We did it after WW2.

Not that I know of currently. 

The plan in the U.S. appears to be to just keep printing money.  😲

It doesn't really matter what the deficit (approaching 30 trillion) is as even that doesn't count the massive unfunded future obligations (estimated at almost 131 trillion) in the Financial Report of the US Government.

Hope we get to cruise and travel before the proverbial economic reality (SHTF) sets in.    

5 minutes ago, DaCruiseBug said:

 

I'm fully aware of what the airlines received. The loans are to be paid back, with interest. The grants as that says were payroll support grants that can only be used to cover the salaries of employees and prohibited airlines from furloughing any employees. Passenger numbers were down by as much as 95% at one point. That would have translated a few hundred thousand US employees being furloughed.

 

Surely you do understand the difference right? Small businesses in the US also received billions of dollars as did other industries.

The $25 billion in loans by the U.S. are extremely low interest, unsecured loans over 10-years.  The airlines also borrowed tens of billions in the Spring market for 11-12%.  So, the low interest subsidy is a factor.  

I'm not objecting to the airlines getting preferential treatment, just stating that they are only able to do so with the continued massive U.S. (mostly future taxpayers) support.

Oh, and yes.  I do understand the difference.

3 minutes ago, DaCruiseBug said:

 

The airlines didn't get that money. The money went to ensure employees weren't furloughed. If cruise lines employed American employees on their ships they'd also get assistance as most other industries have.

Of course they did.

And, a lot more than what most know.  For example, regarding the Spring 2019 $25 billion was really quite a bit more ~

"The industry got $25 billion in payroll support, largely in the form of grants, and another $25 billion in loans, not to mention a subsequent $10 billion in both grants and loans for cargo airlines and industry contractors."

4 minutes ago, DCGuy64 said:

Not a fair comparison. The airlines are still flying, albeit less than before. By contrast, the major cruise lines haven't sailed from a US port in nearly a year. Not once. And barely any in Europe, apart from MSC.

1 minute ago, All-ready2cruise said:

However, airlines were/are still flying! Cruise lines are not cruising at all, nor have they since March 2020 and they are having to return crew members back to their homes again.  That cost is on the cruise lines, no one else. 

Well, the airlines got $25 billion in the Spring of 2019 and $15 billion allocated recently under U.S. programs.

47 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

I'm not sure any degree of creativity and innovation can help at this point. NCL financials are bleak at best. IMO; the problem with the CDC Conditions to sail order is the requirements for what cruise lines must do in preparation for a positive case. I don't believe MSC has any of those restrictions. That leaves sailing places that "work around" the CDC order. I just don't see the market for such cruises being strong enough to offer even a temporary band-aid. My speculation (and it's just that) is that restructuring deals are already in the works. Buckle up.

 

Of course, I could be wrong 🙂

You are likely right.

1 hour ago, Crazy planning mom said:

Thank you for your informed opinion.  I do not have any fcc with NCL but I do have an October 2022 cruise scheduled. Would bankruptcy restructuring affect my cruise?

I've seen some posts re: customer deposits.  Some points noted were that customer deposits, in a U.S. bankruptcy court, are below secured creditors and administrative expenses (the bankruptcy restructuring proceeding; these are big dollars for legal, consulting, etc.) and that, under the best scenario, such are only allowed up to a maximum amount of $2,600 ahead of unsecured creditors.

Also, NCL is incorporated in Bermuda, so it would appear that jurisdiction has something different than the above.

Re: affect on cruise.  Generally, if the creditors (senior most are the ones in control of the creditors committee) agree, or if the court orders without their agreement, can let the entity continue to operate.  The entity generally would try to get DIP (debtor in possession) financing for such and such new lenders actually take priority position over pre-existing creditors (in the U.S.).  Typically, a large pre-existing creditor or group is a DIP lender.

Re: your deposit less formally, one would think that a subsequent, reorganized entity, usually the most senior of creditors, would want to make good on customer deposits and honor them in some way.

3 hours ago, Crazy planning mom said:

I am curious.  If NCL is in the weakest position of the 3 majors, why haven't they sold any ships and why do they continue to advertise?  RCL and CCL both have sold ships.  In fact, RCL sold an entire cruise line.  Also,  as far as bankruptcy, do you think they will go out all together or just restructure?  

Re: selling any ships, the ships are individually, or in groups, fully leveraged (with loans already), so they would essentially get nothing for selling a ship.  They don't have the size of CCL or RCL that also have a long list of old ships (primarily CCL, which has sold the most).

Re: bankruptcy, which likely will be a reorganization, is the primary method to wipe out equity (shareholders first), and then creditors on the lower end of the scale (elimination or concessions).  IMO, something called NCL will continue, just with a different ownership structure controlled by the most senior of the bondholders.

Re: continuing to advertise, they need to keep getting customer deposits, which are interest free, uncollaterized loans at this point.

IMO, NCL (or any of the other cruise lines or other industries) didn't do anything from a company or management position that caused this; it's 100% the pandemic.  The same 15 days a year ago to "bend the curve" looks like it might turn into almost a 2-year revenue free, then revenue diminished time period.  They've done almost everything financially that they could, for example the $850M the borrowed in December, which will be needed if they can't refinance the $700M debt due late this fall.

1 minute ago, SeaShark said:

I think (IOW, its my opinion 😉) that it is amazing how some people can argue that everyone can have their opinion, yet they totally trash the opinions of those who don't agree with their own.

 

How convienient that must be.

Not trashing others opinions, just taking the words out of my mouth that they put in and then subjected to judgment.

BTW, any thoughts on NCL taking creative, innovative action fast?  Nope.  I didn't think so.  Thought police; another volunteer.

1 hour ago, chengkp75 said:

If I hate the cruise lines so much, why did I stoutly defend Carnival in the wake of the Triumph fire against the vast majority of CC members, or other lines when I felt they were unfairly criticized for things that were either out of their control or improperly presented or understood from the media.

 

I wish the cruise lines well.  I wish they were forced to become US flag operations, but that is a Quixotic dream that will never come to fruition, and I well know it.  I worked for the cruise lines, and left them for other opportunities within the maritime industry.  I am now retiring this year, and so will have no dog in the fight over any part of the maritime industry at that point.

 

That's enough justification of me, I agree with njhorseman that you are adept at the common trait of today, deflection when you don't have the answer or when it doesn't suit your argument.

Well, you step into the middle of an ongoing issue between others, ignore the substance of the OP for NCL needing to get creative and fast, purport that it was stated that the cruise lines could port with itinerary at island nations against their will and then share, from your judicial perch, childish name calling.

I think you are due for retirement.

You concurrence with another of similar social media self aggrandized admiration is inconsequential.  

Also, there was no deflection, nor answer required, and there was no argument. 

You (plural) "made such up" because the real common trait today is the inability (by some) to let people express their own opinions, have their own beliefs, make up their own minds and conduct ones life activities outside of and without regard to whether or not the self appointed ruling class approves.

Back to the OP, NCL needs to get creative and aggressive and it needs to do such fast or it isn't going to make.

That's IMO, will always be.

1 hour ago, KennyFla said:

 

Deaths are a lagging indicator, and the picture they give can be what was happening weeks ago. I know in Florida, deaths are not reported right away. I like to track hospitalizations, that is real time and gives , I think, a better snapshot of the current situation.

Here are Florida's current stats. Whether this is a trend down post holiday or a result of the vaccine we should know in about 30 days.

 

Yep, seen that.  Appreciated.

I understand the 'lag, just would really like to see it in the deaths just to establish the % of those that might have died regardless of the virus.

25 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

 

As to your put down of njhorseman, he is completely correct.  You proposed a "cruise to nowhere" (not legal in US), and also use of private islands.  He pointed out that use of the private island would create a legal cruise, but that the nation involved would have to agree to accept cruise ships, the lack of this agreement would make your argument moot.  It is a completely valid point, and definitely not off topic, so get off your high horse.

 

Your other stumbling block is crew vaccinations.  How is NCL to ensure that crew are all vaccinated?  Who coordinates this?  How many countries are involved?  Who pays for this?

The reference to the cruise to to nowhere was clarified, and it was never disputed that the private island nations would have to agree.  Again, the high horse saddle you wear quite well at time.  You might want to actually read what discussed before launching into another childish tirade.

The reference to vaccination requirement for the crews is a sold recommendation and requirement.  I could really care who pays the token fee, relative to the 150-170M a month in losses and cash burns.  Again, I know you hate the cruise lines.  I can't fix whatever you problems were with them, but from the personalization of your posts I can certainly get a good idea as to what the cause was.

15 hours ago, time4u2go said:

You can find that information here:

 

https://ourworldindata.org/us-states-vaccinations

 

Thanks, that's a good link.  👍

1 hour ago, njhorseman said:

Of course that would require the Bahamas (Great Stirrup Cay) or Belize ( Harvest Caye) to approve cruise ship visits. Being a "private island" doesn't exempt you from the laws of the country of which the island is a part . 

Didn't say it or they did not.   Try to stay calm, relax.  Get a grip.  Don't read with a confirmation bias and portend to offer in the nonexistent ruse.

Clearly, the suggestion was actually focusing on complying with required "one stop" for US purposes.  It is rather clear.  

However, I'm 100% sure you'll disagree or impart some other outside of the post purpose peripheral pivot.

1 hour ago, time4u2go said:

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/states-ranked-by-percentage-of-covid-19-vaccines-administered.html

Yep, that's one source.

Another ~

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/us-daily-covid-vaccine-doses-administered?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&region=World

What's missing in this data, for each, and in the CDC linked data, is the detail of the number of vaccinations that are ~

~  First doses

~  Second doses

I understand they are trying to track the doses getting used, but some states are leveraging the hold-back for the required second doses, and some states are just letting everything they've got fly on the bet that there will be no interruption in the planned/estimated subsequent shipments.

Quite interesting.  

It really would be nice to have actual data that is meaningful, i.e., by dose.

9 minutes ago, tallnthensome said:

At this point and including the loss of the Alaska cruise season now I would bet 60/40 that some sort of bankruptcy reorganization will happen soon at this point. Just my opinion of course. With the PVSA around and the current inability to legally have cruises to nowhere it is not looking good. I canceled my August cruise to Alaska last week before this hit as I saw it coming .....I would NOT want to have any money tied up with NCL right now and feel that those with FCC are going to lose it after all this if it hits the courts. 

Agreed.

I had planned the cruises to nowhere to stop at a private island.  So, to nowhere is out from US ports.

Agree on the restructuring outlook.  Quite familiar with it from 2009-2012 of public companies.  Complexities increased with other jurisdictions.  The debt markets appear, IMO only, to be positioning for such.  These "investors" are not in it to be nice.