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About Shawnino

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    Promiscuous Cruiser
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  1. You’re either joking, (if so, congrats, you really really trolled me!) or you need a refresher in junior high math probability
  2. The article's second para: "The clever contraption, which uses frequency to detect the deadly SARS-CoV-2, was designed by a team based at an Israeli university and has a success rate of more than 90 percent in trials to-date." 1. Sadly, it doesn't say whether the inaccurate tests are false positives or false negatives. 2. 90% accuracy isn't all that great. Suppose a cruise has 2,000 pax + crew. That's 200 wrong'uns every cycle. Put another way: suppose over the course of your vacation you are tested seven times. The odds that all seven tests were correct are less than 50-50. I guess it's a start, but it's not much more than a start.
  3. The window, it has been dressed.
  4. This will be a royal mess because 'EU' and 'Schengen Area' overlap but are not synonymous. And that's before individual countries put in their own two cents.
  5. I don't believe in miracles. (Sorry, Al Michaels.) I do believe in xponential growth. Florida 20-odd million people. 200K confirmed cases so far, roughly 10K/day at present, rising. If that's catching 10% of actual cases(former FDA Commish Scott Gottlieb thinks 10% might be close) there are 2MM cases so far and 100K/day-and-rising. A couple months will wash that through 22MM people.
  6. It might have washed through FL by then.
  7. People won't put up with mask mandates for too long, at sea or on land.
  8. That'd be my guess...
  9. Fine, but when some random pax gets corona/the-next-one, what happens to the rest of us who are still healthy? Will be be locked up on board until we get sick?
  10. Just as it shut down faster than anyone expected,m everything will re-open faster than expected. People who want to cruise will be cruising in a few months. The Karens who used to tut-tut about sneaking alcohol aboard (not so much an O isue) will switch to tut-tutting about wearing face coverings. I have no fear of catxhing the Chionese Virus-of-the-Month whilst cruising BUT I have great fear of being aboard a ship suddenly locked down because Mabel on the next floor up and down the hall tested positive for Covid-21 or Swine Flu or some such. The line that gets my business, if one exists, is the one co-operating with ports to put evacuation plans in place for healthy pax.
  11. The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets (even when it's your own). This would be a very interesting time to add to a fleet if one could swing it.
  12. This. Just as many travelers are done with the mega-ships, many can take or leave the mega-ports. Why dock in Naples when you can start in Sorrento? (etc)
  13. Spanish situation could get interesting. One way or the other the regional governments might think they have a say in it.
  14. Wait til stuff settles down. The "deals" will still be there.
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