Humberto

[crewsweeper]

While its current track looks like it might head straight to Miami, forecasts are for it to not be a threat to land at all and may be only a hurricane for a few hours or a day.

 

satellite images indicate that Humberto has stopped intensifying...

at least for the moment. Recent microwave data showed that the

storm had a small microwave eye overnight...but that feature has

since dissolved and has been replaced by a larger but broken inner

band of convection. In some sense...this suggests an eyewall

replacement...except that Humberto is still a tropical storm.

The initial intensity is held at 55 kt based on a consensus of

subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates.

 

 

Humberto has maintained a motion of 295/8 kt...but the storm is

expected to turn northwestward later today due to a weakening

Azores high to the north. Two deep-layered lows are forecast to

develop north of the Canary Islands and over the central Atlantic

over the next couple of days. These features...along with a ridge

extending westward from north Africa...should steer Humberto

northward in about 36 hours. High pressure is forecast to rebuild

north of Humberto by days 4 and 5...which should turn the cyclone

westward by the end of the forecast period. Confidence in this

forecast is high since there is very little spread in the track

guidance...and no significant changes to the official forecast were

required on this cycle.

 

 

Once the inner core of Humberto reorganizes...there is a window of

about 36 to 48 hours for additional strengthening before vertical

shear increases and the storm reaches a more hostile thermodynamic

environment. The official forecast continues to show Humberto

reaching hurricane strength later today...but the forecast peak

intensity in a day or two has been adjusted downward just a bit

based on the latest intensity guidance.

 

[crewsweeper]

Offically the First hurricane of 2013! As of 9-11-13.