Technical Fire Discussion

[spongerob]

I wonder if they (Princess) has insurance to fall back on? I am sure the cost of the rebuild...but as far as the loss of revenue....??

I doubt that they are insured for loss of revenue. I won't be surprised if Carnival (Corp) posts an earnings warning for the second quarter. We can estimate the actual loss of revenue by the number of cents per share that they reduce their forecast.

[CruiseWacker23]

Can anyone speculate as to what is going on right now on the Star regarding insurance company inspectors and MAIB, NTSB, etc.? Do you think "they" have a good idea by now of origin and cause or is it still too early?

 

I know the general public will not hear for awhile but I agree with SpongeRob - I'm keen to hear something substantive as opposed to rumor and innuendo. We recognize that accurate investigative reports take time and I'll also bet that there's a long line of corporate types looking at the damage. However, to quote the five-year old - I wanna knoowwwww!

 

"That's 2.4e7 for you Numb3rs jocks." Laugh - boy, did I laugh. I watch the show and enjoy it but to these English major eyes, the chalk talks are at the level of set design, not reality.

 

Ruby

 

I would venture to say that they determined "the most probable" point of origin by the conclusion of the first day of investigations. Cause, however, is more complicated and time consuming. They are probably still conducting interviews, waiting for lab results, ruling out all remaining possibilities and maybe even still watching videos that we don't even know exist. If theres a chance it could be criminal, they are being very careful to cross every T and dot every i . Its safe to say that after the origin was determined, the interviewing started with those PAX nearest that area.

 

After the NTSB guys and the others are finished, then the insurance investigators will take a look and see if they agree or disagree.

I can tell you this. We will know when the investigation is nearly complete when they start cleaning this mess up and begin the repairs. Until the insurance guys are satisfied and know they do not have to return and dig, sift and sniff some more, the evidence will not be disturbed.

 

I for one will be watching day and night for the first reports to come back!

[TinAngel]

Howdy

 

Seems that someone here can check on any "holds" or inspections on the Star's sister ships. If something major was found they may look at the other ships; however, the Star was the third in her class and "modified" inside.

 

I see a few insurance questions. As stated I have extensive catastrophic case experience. The insurance situation is actually simple. Regardless of the insurance carriers in all certainty this situation will go to a major reinsurance company. These are the folks who insure insurance companies to be simple.

 

If anyone wants the information as to the close to billion dollar issues are, ask.

 

I am not going to post them without you asking. Technical yes, but not a true part of this thread. I do have an extensive history doing major catastrophic loss litigation as an expert witness. I also note that the ship went to Germany for two reasons: one to get repaired, secondly to keep people far away!

 

Doc

[spongerob]

secondly to keep people far away!

I'm curious why you would say that. I can understand keeping the curiousity seekers away, but I don't think there's been any attempt to keep anything about the condition of the ship under wraps. Meyer-Werft was likely selected because 1)they have the dock facilities available 2)relatively close the suppliers who build the cabin modules and 3)Fincantieri is already busy fitting out the Crown Princess and going there would entail a long cruise to the Baltic after the repairs are complete. Bremerhaven is close to where she will resume active duty and allows more time for the unplanned and unforeseen should they develop.

[meemeec]

If anyone wants the information as to the close to billion dollar issues are, ask.

 

I am not going to post them without you asking. Technical yes, but not a true part of this thread. I do have an extensive history doing major catastrophic loss litigation as an expert witness. I also note that the ship went to Germany for two reasons: one to get repaired, secondly to keep people far away!

 

Doc

 

Hi, Doc

Since you're offering....I, for one, am accepting. I'd love to hear what you have to say regarding the huge insurance issues. I'm learning so much on this thread and since we have lots of time till the official reports come out we can fill the time learning the $$ implications. Thanks.

[TinAngel]

Hi, Doc

Since you're offering....I, for one, am accepting. I'd love to hear what you have to say regarding the huge insurance issues. I'm learning so much on this thread and since we have lots of time till the official reports come out we can fill the time learning the $$ implications. Thanks.

 

Hi

 

First note is to our esteemed friend: spongerob

 

Sir, I was not being disrespectful but truthful as I know what will be going on in the legal areas. Trust me if this great ship was docked in the USA, who knows how many lawyers would be there with "investigators" that is their "expert" witnesses team. Whilst the fire tech guys study the causes I would be looking for other issues: "failure to" then add any word. But most of what I used to do is on the effect upon each passenger: here mostly psychological.

Then look at if the "crew", design and actions did any undue harm to the PAX.

 

For the record I did mostly defense expert testimony: that is rare. When I did plaintiff;s cases it was usually a walk through for "damages" (The $) as I was not some "hired gun".

 

This entire case with me first: smoke inhallation then Post Traumatic Stress

Disorder. It will be proven in a very simple way: children cannot be coached that well: if youth have PTSD then they got much of it from real terror. Then "if" the cruise line is responsible: yes they are. I will post more on the issue later:

 

 

Ok, some data:

My guess for repairs is $ 75 to $100 million, plus

My guess for lost revenue $75 million plus and plus

My guess for civil litigation: personal injury is $200-600 million plus

Add $120 million to defense attorney fees plus

 

Settlements will exceed say $50 million and more and they will cut the above by 40%.

 

I think the dry dock is several million a week?

 

There are 2,600 passengers and say 5,200 lawyers already getting started.

To reissue the old joke "500 lawyers at the bottom of the sea is a good start"

 

"Damages" is the legal jargon for such as injury either physical or psychological, disability is the next area and so on. Then we move into

all the liability issues: blame, fault, failure to "?" just pick any phrase" and such and insert.

 

The cruise line is in dire straights. They are really just stuck with this.

 

I mean 2,545 folks leave with at best minor issues of health. But trust me it will be cases of smoke inhalation, psychological trauma (PTSD) and worse.

 

I worked cases from most USA "disasters" from say 1978 to 1988. Many more afterwards but only as the a researcher. Granted my primary role was

determing loss and a major part of that was "human factors engineering".

 

I was not the pain and suffering expert but one who testified about the why's and how's a person was injured in most cases. I do have a background in PTSD: that is another tale. No, not that I have it but I was on the loose team that pushed for the American Psychological Association to create the diagnosis.

 

So, it is just sad. I have already see the legal community "recruiting" for clients. So read closely perhaps the reason why the Star is going to Germany is to keep her away from legal investigators.

 

If this was an airline, supportive teams would have been out there supporting passengers with services. Not that that deters law suits. Suspect some lawyers are trolling the boards. Ok with me.

 

The Cruise industry failed? No, not really. The attorney's will tell the jury that we have "Star Trek" capacities yet this ship had not much more than the

"Love Boat" or such had. However, I do expect that Princess will overcome the law suits. Many experts out here who can do the right thing.

 

Thanks guys and gals!

 

If we see this on MSNBC's Abrams Report or Court TV it will be an adventure.

 

DOC

 

There is a serious side to me: the litigaton I see for very, very dreadful and sad consequences. My "speciality" was burns and spinal cord injury and mostly pediatic.

[meemeec]

Wow, Doc! Those are very interesting estimations and I am hoping they are on the high side. Since I am from the school of "no harm, no foul" I would be shocked if more than a handful of people sued. Maybe I am naive. The financial losses you describe are staggering and could you comment on what kind of coverage Princess/Carnival Corp would have in this situation.

Thanks,

Maureen

[spongerob]

Thanks Doc. My apologies if I sounded like a smarta$$, that certainly wasn't my intent. I was honestly curious about your comment. I guess the sooner the ship departs, the less likely reporters will be swarming around and demanding interviews, too.

 

Your take is interesting given your experience. My background makes me look at things pragmatically - in this case, any port in a storm would seem to be the order of the day. You describe something on the order of an intensely complicated dance, where one false step lands you in hot water. (My apologies for the unintended puns.) It's fascinating to see a different perspective.

 

The numbers you've posted are startling. I honestly can't get my arms around the magnitude of potential damages and/or settlements.

[katisdale]

I find myself drawn back to this thread every day. I have learned so much. I want to learn more about the crews "other" duties. I've only had experience with the stewards, waiters, photographers, and cruise staff like entertainers. Does everyone have additional duties? That this much damage occured with the loss of one life is astounding to me. Yes Princess will probably be sued (and I have a little stock ouch) but the crew must have been so very brave to go toward the inferno they saved themselves, the ship, and the passengers. How much time is spent learning how to fight fires? Years ago (1968 to 1970) I was a very young nurse in the Air Force. We had catastrophe drills and had two teams set up, a group of docs, nurses, and corpmen who were to evacuate and set up a mobile hospital and a group who were to stay on site and manage whatever came in until we were rendered unable to assist (the premise was the go team would survive and the stay team would utimately be lost to an atomic attack). This was during the cold war. That brings to my mind the thought that possibly the firefighters on a ship are supposed to stand their ground no matter what. How long would the fire have been fought if it was not being contained? I know the life boats would have been used if needed. Does the water used in fighting a fire on a ship make it more likely to sink? I know nothing about this obviously.

[SDN]

I find it very coincidental that the in-room movie on the evening before the fire was the Bruce Willis film, "Hostage". In this film, liquor bottles stuffed with rags were used as fire bombs. I have emailed Princess and the MAIB about this concern.

 

On Thursday night there was an announcment asking for the person that pulled the fire alarm to contact security.

 

Would that really work in real life, or is that a Hollywood trick?

[Cruise Cat]

TinAngel (doc) - Does an incident such as this supercede all the legalese that is in your cruise contract that everything must go through an arbirtrator (sp) in Florida? Does accepting the refund plus extras constiture acceptance of a settlement and hurt the passengers legal rights later on.

 

Just thought you might know.

 

Chuck

[Cruise Cat]

For those asking about their insurance - here is info from the Carnival (parent) 2005 Annual Report

http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/NYS/ccl/reports/CCP05AR.pdf

 

Insurance/Self-Insurance

We use a combination of insurance and self-insurance

for a number of risks including claims related to crew and

passengers, hull and machinery, war risk, workers’ compensation

and general liability. Liabilities associated with these

risks, including estimates for crew and passenger claims, are

estimated based on, among other things, historical claims

experience, severity factors and other actuarial assumptions.

Our expected loss accruals are based on estimates, and while

we believe the amounts accrued are adequate, the ultimate

loss may differ from the amounts provided.

 

and

 

In the normal course of our business, various other claims

and lawsuits have been filed or are pending against us. Most

of these claims and lawsuits are covered by insurance and,

accordingly, the maximum amount of our liability, net of any

insurance recoverables, is typically limited to our self-insurance

retention levels. However, the ultimate outcome of these

claims and lawsuits which are not covered by insurance cannot

be determined at this time.

 

and

 

War Risk Insurance

[size=2

We maintain war risk insurance, subject to coverage limits

and exclusions for claims such as those arising from chemical

and biological attacks, on all of our ships covering our legal liability

to crew, passengers and other third parties arising from

war or war-like actions, including terrorist risks. Due primarily

to its high costs, we only carry war risk insurance coverage

for physical damage to 43 of our 79 ships, which includes

terrorist risks. Under the terms of our war risk insurance

coverage, which is typical for war risk policies in the marine

industry, underwriters can give seven days notice to the

insured that the liability and physical damage policies can be

cancelled. If one or more of our 36 uninsured ships suffer

damage in an attack, then the cost of any such damages

would be expensed, and such amounts could be material.

 

and

 

Cautionary Note Concerning Factors That May

Affect Future Results

• accidents and other incidents affecting the health, safety,

security and vacation satisfaction of passengers, including

machinery and equipment failures, which could cause

the alteration of itineraries or cancellation of a cruise or a

series of cruises and the impact of the spread of contagious

diseases;

[/size]

and

 

Contingencies

We periodically assess the potential liabilities related to

any lawsuits or claims brought against us, as well as for other

known unasserted claims, including environmental, legal,

passenger and crew, and tax matters. While it is typically very

difficult to determine the timing and ultimate outcome of these

matters, we use our best judgment to determine if it is probable

that we will incur an expense related to the settlement or

final adjudication of such matters and whether a reasonable

estimation of such probable loss, if any, can be made. In

assessing probable losses, we make estimates of the amount

of insurance recoveries, if any. We accrue a liability when we

believe a loss is probable and the amount of the loss can be

reasonably estimated, in accordance with the provisions of

SFAS No. 5, “Accounting for Contingencies,” as amended.

Such accruals are typically based on developments to date,

management’s estimates of the outcomes of these matters,

our experience in contesting, litigating and settling other similar

matters, historical claims experience and actuarially determined

assumptions of liabilities, and any related insurance

coverage. See Note 8 in the accompanying financial statements

for additional information concerning our contingencies.

Given the inherent uncertainty related to the eventual outcome

of these matters and potential insurance recoveries, it

is possible that all or some of these matters may be resolved

for amounts materially different from any provisions or disclosures

that we may have made with respect to their resolution.

In addition, as new information becomes available, we may

need to reassess the amount of probable liability that needs

to be accrued related to our contingencies. All such revisions

in our estimates could materially impact our results of operations

and financial position.

[Tater1800]

Would that really work in real life, or is that a Hollywood trick?

 

80 proof, 40%, will easily burn. The stuff that approaches 100% should be quite volatile.

[DeepWaterMariner]

Tinangel,

 

Given the new information today, that the Star will be back in service by May 15, then I think your repair estimate is high. If the Star is in the ship yard for 6 weeks I don't believe they can burn $75 to 100 million. Anyone can probably shoot holes in my numbers but my estimate would be more like $30 to 35 million. I arrived at this by figuring that your typical $500 million dollar cruise ship takes about 2 years to build...or roughly $5 million a week. If it takes 6 weeks for the repairs, maybe a big if, then the repair bill should be in the $30 million area.

[TinAngel]

TinAngel (doc) - Does an incident such as this supercede all the legalese that is in your cruise contract that everything must go through an arbirtrator (sp) in Florida? Does accepting the refund plus extras constiture acceptance of a settlement and hurt the passengers legal rights later on.

 

Just thought you might know.

 

Easy answer.

 

If one plans to litigate, sue: do not do anything, but even if one does it is not always binding, ? Legal stuff is not reality.

 

 

 

That brings to my mind the thought that possibly the firefighters on a ship are supposed to stand their ground no matter what. How long would the fire have been fought if it was not being contained? I know the life boats would have been used if needed. Does the water used in fighting a fire on a ship make it more likely to sink? I know nothing about this obviously.

 

katisdale:

 

.

 

I was as you a medic. I was a corpsman in my youth then went on to Nursing school and became a psychologist. Yes Mam! LT! The crew stays and dies if so be it. No retreat. I know you know about the USAF "parajumpers" Air Rescue guys. In Vietnam they went after downed pilots, and went after Pacific sea ship distress calls. They train at Kirkland AFB, New Mexico. The motto is simple "That Others May Live". Air Force honor and Pride. So many rescued since the Korean War, maybe you did not fly with them but you were USAF. Served with honor.

 

The "Star" was not manned by some crew from a cheap liner in the third world. I pray they stayed and it seems they did. Like in Nursing School we stayed with TB patients or those with spinal mengenitis )spelling), you did that as I did.

 

We are "brothers and sisters" we both served. I was sacred in combat but in no BS never as scared as invoking the wrath of the Chief Nurse in a hospital.

If a nurse lets a patient down it is the same as a firefighter backing down.

It never happens, twice.

 

Doc

[D4]

This is the best thread! I look forward to the new developments each day. It's great that we have people with expertise in different areas willing to share it with the rest of us.

 

Tinangel - I found your assessment very intriguing.

 

Someone asked about the fire training the crew receives. On our Caribbean Princess cruise last summer, they announced that while docked at St. Thomas they would be conducting their weekly fire drill and they would be using fake smoke to simulate real conditions. I was impressed.

[donnaw]

It is really going to test my patience waiting to find out not where, but HOW the fire started. I find it interesting that none of the very many who have posted their comments here or in the news stories linked by members have mentioned that they were interviewed as part of an investigation, or if anyone was detained. Several people have hinted at knowing what caused the fire to start but (perhaps thankfully) have resisted posting their thoughts.

 

I did a rough calculation of how much this is costing Princess. 6 Caribbean cruises have been cancelled or refunded, including the 3/19 cruise, plus the 15-day transatlantic. If you assume that the average fare for a 7-day cruise is $750, and that everyone on board will spend about half that in on-board expenses, the 57 days out of service will end up with a total loss of revenue of almost $24,000,000. (That's 2.4e7 for you Numb3rs jocks). That doesn't include the extra transportation costs, compensation for damaged items, and FCC's that will be issued to everyone involved, or the cost of repairs. The magnitude of the financial loss is staggering.

 

Carnival (NYSE:CCL - News; London:CCL.L - News) said the canceled trips and the cost of repairs to the ship, expected back into service on May 15, would cut earnings per share by about 4 cents to 5 cents for the second quarter as well as for the full year. On March 23, it lowered its full-year forecast, citing higher fuel costs.

[Princess Chatterer]

Guess who ultimately pays for Star Princess damages?

 

Future Princess cruise passengers that's who. That's you and me brother.

 

It happens by Princess passing on their direct damage expenses and litigation expenses and by Princess passing on their higher insurance premiums either by higher ticket prices and/or cuts in services.

[Princess Chatterer]

"FIRE SAFETY AND PREVENTION

 

All crew are trained in basic firefighting procedures. Crewmembers specifically assigned to the ship?s firefighting teams receive additional specialized training.

 

The average response time for an emergency is within a matter of minutes - fire teams and trained emergency and medical crews are only a few hundred feet away from possible fires.

 

ICCL cruise ships have sufficient lifeboats and life rafts for everyone on board, plus additional capacity in reserve.

 

At the beginning of each voyage, all cruise passengers go through a mandatory abandon-ship drill for familiarization in the event of an emergency.

 

In 2001, ICCL cruise members adopted mandatory safety standards for their cruise ships that exceed existing U.S. and international standards which are integrated into its internationally mandated Safety Management System (SMS) to ensure compliance through internal audits and third party audits.

 

Cruise ships comply with the IMO?s Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) Convention which is adopted by countries worldwide, including the United States. SOLAS governs the design, construction and operation of all ships.

 

To ensure compliance with SOLAS and other safety requirements, the Coast Guard conducts quarterly inspections on all vessels embarking passengers at U.S. ports. The examinations focus on fire safety systems and life saving equipment and their safety and environmental protection items. Additionally, the Coast Guard witnesses fire and abandon ship drills to ensure crew proficiency.

 

The U.S. Coast Guard verifies the adequacy of crew training through observation of drills, examination of documentation and interviews with officers and crew.

 

The average ICCL cruise ship (86,000 gross registered tons) has the following:

 

Five fire teams on board

 

Over 170 trained personnel on their fire fighting teams (the average towns fire department usually has an average of six firefighters per station)

 

Approximately twenty crewmembers with advanced fire fighting training

 

Over 6 miles of fire fighting hose

 

Over 16 miles of sprinkler piping

 

Over 5,000 sprinkler heads

 

Over 500 fire extinguishers

 

Over 4,000 smoke detectors

 

Local sounding alarms in all cabins

 

Over 400 fire stations or hydrants

 

http://www.iccl.org/pressroom/pressrelease.cfm?whichrel=100

[Degen23]

Thanks to all of you providing your views on the fire. I have been fascinated by the information shared. My family and I were on the Star Princess in early March for our first cruise and really enjoyed ourselves, but we were saddened to hear of the damage to her.

[Degen23]

CruiseCat-

 

The language you posted from Carnival's annual report is fairly standard accounting language used in audited financial statements, with some specifics for how it choses to insures its operations. I would not read too much into the specifics since it seems that Carnival is not discussing any specific event. However, in its next annual report and/or quarterly report, I would anticipate that Carnival would have something to disclose about the financial impact of this event.

 

I've given some thought also to the financial impact to Princess, and one cost that must be considered is the cost to keep the crew together. If Princess plans to have the Star back in May, I doubt that it would want to disband the crew altogether. Plus, it needs some of the crew to get the ship back to Germany. Any thoughts on this?

[Princess Chatterer]

"Luckily, she said, only the crew had to use the lifeboats, to fight the fire."

 

http://www.heraldnews.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=16386398&BRD=1710&PAG=461&dept_id=99784&rfi=6

[Princess Chatterer]

"It all started around 2:00 am last Thursday morning. Richard Aldridge was out on the balcony." ""I look over and I see one cabin on fire. The fire was so small I said 'they'll put it out.' Then a ding, ding, ding went out over the intercom and they said all hands to deck," says Aldridge. He says he went back inside his room, but minutes later the fire had spread. I walk back out ten minutes later. The fire had made it from probably the 11th deck to the 5th." "He says it was what happened next that the Aldridge's did not expect.

Just doors down from their room, a blazing fire and everyone around them, they say, had no idea of the danger. "No fire alarm was sounding. Everyone was sleeping on our floor. So we woke everyone up that we could get to, banging on their doors." "They know the general fire alarm sounded around 3:10am"

 

http://www.firstcoastnews.com/news/local/news-article.aspx?storyid=54555

[Cruise Cat]

Degen - Yep, I've seen it before too in just about every annual report or 10K statement I've ever read. Just stuff they have to put in there. Carnival had a fire on one of their ships back in 1998 and it didn't sink the cruise line. Just like someone else said, we will eventually pay for it by sailing on any Carnival (parent) ship.

[CruiseWacker23]

"FIRE SAFETY AND PREVENTION

 

All crew are trained in basic firefighting procedures. Crewmembers specifically assigned to the ship?s firefighting teams receive additional specialized training.

 

 

 

The average ICCL cruise ship (86,000 gross registered tons) has the following:

 

Five fire teams on board

 

Over 170 trained personnel on their fire fighting teams (the average towns fire department usually has an average of six firefighters per station)

 

Approximately twenty crewmembers with advanced fire fighting training

 

Over 6 miles of fire fighting hose

 

Over 16 miles of sprinkler piping

 

Over 5,000 sprinkler heads

 

Over 500 fire extinguishers

 

Over 4,000 smoke detectors

 

Local sounding alarms in all cabins

 

Over 400 fire stations or hydrants

 

http://www.iccl.org/pressroom/pressrelease.cfm?whichrel=100

 

Just my 2 cents of imput here, not to criticize or pass judgment on the above stats:

 

2 things stand out to me..

 

170 trained personnel (Translation: 170 staff trained in the use of portable fire extinguishers, evacuation proceedures etc.)

 

20 staff trained in advanced firefighting (Translation: 20 staff with structural and marine firefighting training, equivalent of firefighter II on land. Thats the level most probationary firefighters graduate with from career fire academies.)

 

On land, to meet all the benchmarks that modern standards suggest such as proper command staffing, accountability, 2 in 2 out etc, it takes 30 personnel to handle a room and contents fire by the book. Granted, everyday, 99 out of 100 room and content fires are extinguished by alot fewer firefighters than that. I not saying it can't be done, just what the standard suggests. Don't flame me, I know marine firefighting is different!! Twenty trained firefighting personnel for this fire was not alot. I am sure they had their backs against the wall for awhile. Also, on land, we just hit another alarm and bring more resources, you don't have that luxury at sea. The built in fire protection systems better work!

 

CW