Cruise lines' stock prices

[kelmac]

I've been in and out of both RCI and CCL stock through the past six years. At the present time, I have sold all my cruise line stocks and I'm waiting to see what the market looks like in a few months.

 

Do you believe stock prices for the cruise lines will continue to trend up, or do you think there will be some correction to the down side?

 

Positives (for the stock): demand is up; cruise prices are up; ships are sailing full; more ships coming online; additional revenue with more onboard services/goods; cruise prices are still attractive compared to land base travel; weak dollar brings more European, and non-North American cruisers on board.

 

Negatives (for the stock): fuel costs are going up; airline prices are climbing; all basic goods/services are going up because of transportation costs; hotel prices have doubled in some areas; record deficits in the American economy; additional debt to pay for new ships; recent negative press for the cruise industry.

[greeneg]

I think that they will stay pretty much where they are because I think that the positives and negatives come close to balancing. Company income ( for RCCL overall) remains up, the stock is paying dividends regularly, and the overall bottom line remains positive.

 

While I agree with both your positives and negatives, I suspect that the fact that cruising tends to have fairly fixed costs ( you pretty much know what you are going to spend up front before you make the final decision) and the fact that the vacation is pretty much all inclusive: add-ons tend you be at your discretion....

 

Where I think that there may be some concern, at least as far as Celebrity, is the rather disturbing trend of poorer Customer Service as reported here on the boards, repetitive and not very creative itineraries, and deferral of maintainence items. It almost looks as though there has been a Corporate Decision to re-make Celebrity from RCCL's Premium Division to the Step-Sister.

 

I hope that's not the case.

[hdawson]

Cruising from North American ports is growing about 10% every year. The economy in the US is in very good shape, consumer confidence is at a three year high and barring a significant national security event, that growth will continue for the foreseeable future. Only four years ago RCCL stock could be purchased for $9.00 per share. Now I think in the low 40s.

 

BTW. I think the cruise industry survived the tradegy of 9-11 and the economic downturn that began in 2000 better than any sector of the travel industry.

[ocngypz]

I think the pricing will go down in 07 with more berths coming online. Ditto 08

 

I think Europe will be softer next year from August on.. too much tonnage.

Bargains will be in the Baltics.

 

I think high priced air will keep more folks away from Europe, Hawaii and Alaska in 07.

 

I think 12 nights out of Bayonne is going to be a real surprise to RCL.. not a pleasant one.

 

I do not think the largest growth segment will be North America. It will be overseas.

 

Stock prices... I expect CCL to fare better than RCL. But of course, stock prices many times are so overly inflated they bear no relation to a corporation's true financial health.